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Climate change
• Refers to any significant change in measures of
climate (such as temperature, precipitation, or
wind) lasting for an extended period (decades or
longer)
• Climate change may result from:
– natural factors: ex. Change in sun's intensity
– natural processes within the climate system: ex.
changes in ocean circulation
– human activities that change
• atmosphere's composition: ex: burning fossil fuels
• land surface: ex: deforestation, urbanization, desertification,
etc.
Scientific consensus on climate
change
• No real debate - scientific consensus
– Climate changing rapidly
– Anthropogenic sources
RATE
CAUSE
• IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change
In U.S.
• Greenhouse gas emissions
– ¾ energy-related activities, CO2 emissions
from burning fossil fuels
• ½ power plants
• 1/3 transportation
– Industry (cement, steel, aluminum), ag,
forestry, waste mgmt
Affects of climate change vary over space
And time….
So what are the impacts on wildlife?
That depends on . . .
• Where they are
– Physical boundaries: development, mountains, coast
– Impacts: coasts, mountains, arctic, rainforests,
deserts
• Their life history
characteristics
– Migrants, coevolution,
range, dispersal
– Degree of specialization
• Genetic variability
So what are the impacts on wildlife?
• Range and
distribution changes
• Demographics
• Phenology
• Community
composition and
interactions
It is not the
strongest of the
species that
survive, nor the
most intelligent,
but the one
most
responsive to
change.
C. Darwin
Modeling climate change scenarios to predict future
trends/patterns
From Lawler et al (2009), Ecology 90(3):588-597
Modeling climate change scenarios to predict future
trends/patterns: a suite of future models
From Lawler et al (2009), Ecology 90(3):588-597
Modeling range expansion/contraction
From Lawler et al (2009), Ecology 90(3):588-597
Modeling range expansion/contraction
From Lawler et al (2009), Ecology 90(3):588-597
Can take individual species projected range maps and
create maps of overall changes in species lost.
From Lawler et al (2009), Ecology 90(3):588-597
Can take individual species projected range maps and
create maps of overall changes in species gained.
From Lawler et al (2009), Ecology 90(3):588-597
Can take individual species projected range maps and
create maps of overall changes in community changes.
From Lawler et al (2009), Ecology 90(3):588-597