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Global Climate Change
Sabine Perch-Nielsen
26 February 2009
innovateZIS, Zurich International School
What is it all about?
 an important and
welcome mechanism
The Greenhouse Gas Effect:
Greenhouse
gases:
CO2, methane,
nitrous oxides…
innovateZIS
slide 2
26 February 2009
We are emitting huge amounts of GHGs due to energy use,
deforestation, agriculture and others:
total carbon emissions from fossil fuels
8000
million metric tons of C
7000
6000
gas
liquid
solid
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
CDIAC, 2009
innovateZIS
slide 3
26 February 2009
atmospheric CO2
concentration (ppm)
Our emissions are causing the concentration of CO2 in
the atmosphere to rise
Estimations from ice cores and direct
atmospheric measurements (red)
IPCC, WG1, 2007
innovateZIS
slide 4
26 February 2009
This intensifies the greenhouse gas effect …
Greenhouse
gases:
CO2, methane,
nitrous oxides…
innovateZIS
slide 5
26 February 2009
… causing temperatures to rise…
1948
2002
2006
Trift-Glacier, Berner Oberland
innovateZIS
slide 6
26 February 2009
… worldwide.
change in global temperature at the surface in the last 25 years
-0.75
°C change per decade
IPCC, 1250 contributing authors, 2500 authors, 2500 reviewers, unanimously XX by 130 countries
innovateZIS
slide 7
+0.75
change 1979-2005, IPCC, WG1, 2007
26 February 2009
The many elements of the climate system
IPCC, WG1, 2007
innovateZIS
slide 8
26 February 2009
Where are we heading?
atmospheric CO2 concentration (ppm)
?
Estimations from ice cores and direct
atmospheric measurements (red)
innovateZIS
slide 9
IPCC, WG1, 2007
26 February 2009
It of course depends on our emissions:
scenario A2
scenario B1
range of
IPCC
scenarios
for 2100
Raupach et al. 2007
innovateZIS
slide 10
26 February 2009
So where are we heading?
scenario A2
range of
IPCC
scenarios
for 2100
atmospheric CO2
concentration (ppm)
?
scenario B1
IPCC, WG1, 2007
innovateZIS
slide 11
26 February 2009
Where we are heading if we continue BAU:
change in global temperature at the surface compared to 1980-1999
scenario B1
scenario A2
scenarios B1 / A2, IPCC, SPM WG1, 2007
innovateZIS
slide 12
26 February 2009
By 2100:
scenario 1
scenario 2
IPCC, WG2, 2007
innovateZIS
slide 13
26 February 2009
Where are we heading today?
 current growth rate in emissions is
higher than any of the IPCC scenarios!
scenario A2
scenario B1
Raupach et al., 2007
innovateZIS
slide 14
26 February 2009
How can we avoid “dangerous climate change”?
 stay below 2°C global
warming (compared to
pre-industrial -> 1.3°C
compared to today)
 stabilise atmospheric
CO2 concentration
< approx. 450 ppm
 reduce global
emissions by
~ 50% by 2050 and
~ 80% by 2100
compared to 1990.
scenario A2
scenario B1
2°C scenario
Raupach et al. 2007
innovateZIS
slide 15
26 February 2009
Principle of “common but differentiated responsibility”
The area of all squares together need to
be reduced by 50% by 2050:
goal
2050
IPCC, WG3, 2007
innovateZIS
slide 16
26 February 2009
Principle of “common but differentiated responsibility”
poverty: % of population living on less than 1 USD a day
Wikipedia, WRI 2006
innovateZIS
slide 17
26 February 2009
Reduction targets for developed countries
 global emissions need to be reduced by
~ 50% by 2050 and
~ 80% by 2100 compared to 1990
 under “common but differentiated responsibility” this means that
developed countries must reduce their emissions even more than
that
innovateZIS
slide 18
26 February 2009
When should we start reducing: Now or later?
 „Later“ should not be an option. Not because damage by
climate change in 10 years is so high, but because the
necessary goals become impossible to achieve.
IPCC, WG3, 2007
innovateZIS
slide 19
26 February 2009
To take home
 A world with a different climate is not far away but already seriously
affects our and our children’s lives.
 The dimensions of global temperature rise might seem small (2 or
3°C), but it has an enormous impact on our lives.
 The longer we wait the more restricted options will be.
 Rising global temperatures cannot be stopped but only slowed
down: constant concentration (2000) -> still increase of 0.1°C per
decade. We will also have to adapt a changing climate.
 Avoiding dangerous climate change is a huge and urgent worldwide
challenge. The main goals are to stop deforestation, increase
energy efficiency and boost renewable energies.
 The Stern review suggests three essential policy elements: carbon
pricing, technology policy, and removal of barriers to behavioural
change.
 Emission reductions are “cheap” – compared to inaction (-> Stern
review)
innovateZIS
slide 20
26 February 2009
myclimate
offsetting
carbon management
innovateZIS
education climate &
energy
slide 21
26 February 2009
myclimate
 high quality offsets, only energy,
no forestry
 non-profit, high credibility, min.
80% of offset receipts go into
projects
 voluntary market, not compliance
market
 among the best carbon offset providers
worldwide:
○ 2007: Tufts University (comparison of 13)
○ 2008: environmental publisher ENDS (comparison
of 170 offset providers globally)
 from 60’000 CHF in 2003 to 6’000’000 CHF in 2008
innovateZIS
slide 22
26 February 2009
Thank you