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Illinois Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections: 1990-2020 Meeting of the Illinois Climate Change Advisory Group 300 West Adams St., 2nd Floor, Chicago, IL February 22, 2007 Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group Topics to Cover • Data Sources and the Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) • Greenhouse Gases in Illinois and the U.S. • Illinois Greenhouse Gas Projections to 2020 • Discussion Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group 2 CAIT overview: • State-level data available for 6 Kyoto gases across the economy • CAIT based on EPA’s Emissions Inventory Improvement Program (EIIP) Tools • Does not include int’l bunker fuels and land use change and forestry CAIT-US Sector and Gas Coverage Sector CO2 CH4 N2O Electric Generation X X X Residential X X X Commercial X X X Industrial X X X Transportation X X X F-Gases Energy Fugitive Emissions Industrial Processes X X X Agriculture X X Waste X X CAIT is available free at: http://cait.wri.org Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group 3 Federal data, tools and state proxies used CAIT-U.S. Proxy Data, Sources and Comments by Sector Sector Agency Source Proxy Data Comments Electric Generation, Residential, Commercial, Industrial & Transport Energy Information Administration (EIA) Federal Highway Administration State level fuel consumption 2001 Non-CO2 data used to supplement missing data, some mis-assignment of emissions from jet fuel Fugitive Emissions US EPA Estimates based on state coal production data Oil and natural gas processing emissions are excluded Industrial Processes U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Directory of Chemical Producers (SRI 2000) National data assigned by population (HFCs), statelevel shipments (SF6) No data for certain production processes, data anomalies present at state level Agriculture US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Commercial Fertilizers Report, Fertilizer Institute State level crop and livestock production data 2001 data used as proxy for 2002 and 2003 due to anomalies Waste US EPA National data assigned by population Industrial waste water methane data are excluded Data uncertainties have only a small effect on aggregate state emissions Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group 4 Topics to Cover • Data Sources and the Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) • Greenhouse Gases in Illinois and the U.S. • Illinois Greenhouse Gas Projections to 2020 • Discussion Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group 5 IL is a big emitter; electricity & transport lead • Total Illinois GHG emissions 2003: 274.7 million metric tonnes • 5th largest GHG emitting state in the U.S. • Roughly equal to total emissions of the Netherlands IL GHGs by Gas (2003) N2O 9% IL GHGs by Sector (2003) Fugitive Commercial Waste Emissions 2% 5% 1% Industrial Processes Electricity Generation 5% 30% CH4 F-Gases 4% 2% Agriculture 9% Residential 10% CO2 85% Industrial 14% Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group Transportation 24% 6 IL emissions grew faster than U.S. GHG Emissions Trends in Illinois and the U.S., 1990-2003 Illinois 1990 2003 Growth Annual Rate Total (MtCO2Eq) 237.3 274.9 15.8% 1.1% Electricity Generation 56.3 85.9 52.5% 3.3% Residential 25.6 26.4 3.0% 0.2% Commercial 12.5 12.6 1.1% 0.1% Industrial 44.9 38.4 -14.6% -1.2% Transportation 55.3 65.5 18.5% 1.3% Fugitive Emissions 4.2 1.9 -55.6% -6.1% Industrial Processes 3.5 13.1 277.2% 10.8% 25.9 24.4 -5.7% -0.5% Waste 9.2 6.8 -25.8% -2.3% U.S. 1990 2003 Growth Annual Rate Total (MtCO2Eq) 6,108.9 6,959.1 13.9% 1.0% Electricity Generation 1,803.6 2,272.2 26.0% 1.8% Residential 338.0 378.8 12.1% 0.9% Commercial 222.6 235.8 5.9% 0.4% Industrial 1,082.2 1,065.4 -1.6% -0.1% Transportation 1,460.0 1,818.4 24.6% 1.7% Fugitive Emissions 254.9 217.4 -14.7% -1.2% Industrial Processes 301.1 304.1 1.0% 0.1% Agriculture 439.6 439.1 -0.1% 0.0% Waste 210.0 194.8 -7.2% -0.6% Agriculture Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group 7 Emissions growth has varied Illinois GHG Emission Trends by Sector 1990-2003 300 Industrial Processes Fugitive Emissions Million Tonnes CO2 Eq. 250 Waste 200 Commercial Unusually Warm Winter National Recessions Residential 150 Agriculture 100 Industrial Transport 50 Electric Generation Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group 03 20 02 20 01 20 00 20 99 19 98 19 97 19 96 19 95 19 94 19 93 19 92 19 91 19 19 90 0 8 Topics to Cover • Data Sources and the Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) • Greenhouse Gases in Illinois and the U.S. • Illinois Greenhouse Gas Projections to 2020 • Discussion Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group 9 Projections methodology: • Transportation, Residential, Commercial and Industrial sector growth rates are based on EIA projections for energy use in the East North Central region (IL, IN, MI, OH and WI) • Electric generation and non-energy sector growth rates are derived from historic trends • Illinois total GHG emissions are projected to increase at an annual rate of 1.00% Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group 10 IL GHGs projected to be 326 MtCO2e by 2020 IL GHG Emissions (Thousand Metric Tonnes CO2 Eq.) Illinois actual and projected GHG Emissions 1990-2020 400,000 Actual Projected High 350,000 Best Guess Best Guess: Low 37.2% above 1990 levels = 88 MtCO2e 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group 2015 2020 11 EIP could cut 22.9 million tonnes from projected emissions by 2020 Illinois actual and projected GHG Emissions with Energy Independence Plan measures 1990-2020 350,000 IL GHG Emissions (thousand metric tonnes CO2e) Actual 26% below best guess case in 2020 Projected 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 Natural gas efficiency programs Residential building code 100,000 RPS + EEPS Biofuels (high) 1990 levels Biofuels (low) 50,000 Baseline & Projection 1990 levels 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group 2015 2020 12 Discussion Questions and Comments Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group 13