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Transcript
Illinois Greenhouse Gas
Emissions Inventory and
Projections: 1990-2020
Meeting of the Illinois Climate Change Advisory Group
300 West Adams St., 2nd Floor, Chicago, IL
February 22, 2007
Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group
Topics to Cover
• Data Sources and the Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT)
• Greenhouse Gases in Illinois and the U.S.
• Illinois Greenhouse Gas Projections to 2020
• Discussion
Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group
2
CAIT overview:
• State-level data available for
6 Kyoto gases across the
economy
• CAIT based on EPA’s
Emissions Inventory
Improvement Program (EIIP)
Tools
• Does not include int’l bunker
fuels and land use change
and forestry
CAIT-US Sector and Gas Coverage
Sector
CO2
CH4
N2O
Electric
Generation
X
X
X
Residential
X
X
X
Commercial
X
X
X
Industrial
X
X
X
Transportation
X
X
X
F-Gases
Energy
Fugitive
Emissions
Industrial Processes
X
X
X
Agriculture
X
X
Waste
X
X
CAIT is available free at: http://cait.wri.org
Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group
3
Federal data, tools and state proxies used
CAIT-U.S. Proxy Data, Sources and Comments by Sector
Sector
Agency Source
Proxy Data
Comments
Electric Generation,
Residential,
Commercial,
Industrial & Transport
Energy Information Administration
(EIA)
Federal Highway Administration
State level fuel
consumption
2001 Non-CO2 data used to
supplement missing data, some
mis-assignment of emissions
from jet fuel
Fugitive Emissions
US EPA
Estimates based on state
coal production data
Oil and natural gas processing
emissions are excluded
Industrial Processes
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Directory of Chemical Producers
(SRI 2000)
National data assigned by
population (HFCs), statelevel shipments (SF6)
No data for certain production
processes, data anomalies
present at state level
Agriculture
US Department of Agriculture
(USDA)
Commercial Fertilizers Report,
Fertilizer Institute
State level crop and
livestock production data
2001 data used as proxy for
2002 and 2003 due to
anomalies
Waste
US EPA
National data assigned by
population
Industrial waste water methane
data are excluded
Data uncertainties have only a small effect on aggregate state emissions
Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group
4
Topics to Cover
• Data Sources and the Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT)
• Greenhouse Gases in Illinois and the U.S.
• Illinois Greenhouse Gas Projections to 2020
• Discussion
Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group
5
IL is a big emitter; electricity & transport lead
• Total Illinois GHG emissions 2003: 274.7 million metric tonnes
• 5th largest GHG emitting state in the U.S.
• Roughly equal to total emissions of the Netherlands
IL GHGs by Gas (2003)
N2O
9%
IL GHGs by Sector (2003)
Fugitive
Commercial Waste
Emissions
2%
5%
1%
Industrial
Processes
Electricity Generation
5%
30%
CH4 F-Gases
4% 2%
Agriculture
9%
Residential
10%
CO2
85%
Industrial
14%
Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group
Transportation
24%
6
IL emissions grew faster than U.S.
GHG Emissions Trends in Illinois and the U.S., 1990-2003
Illinois
1990
2003
Growth
Annual Rate
Total (MtCO2Eq)
237.3
274.9
15.8%
1.1%
Electricity Generation
56.3
85.9
52.5%
3.3%
Residential
25.6
26.4
3.0%
0.2%
Commercial
12.5
12.6
1.1%
0.1%
Industrial
44.9
38.4
-14.6%
-1.2%
Transportation
55.3
65.5
18.5%
1.3%
Fugitive Emissions
4.2
1.9
-55.6%
-6.1%
Industrial Processes
3.5
13.1
277.2%
10.8%
25.9
24.4
-5.7%
-0.5%
Waste
9.2
6.8
-25.8%
-2.3%
U.S.
1990
2003
Growth
Annual Rate
Total (MtCO2Eq)
6,108.9
6,959.1
13.9%
1.0%
Electricity Generation
1,803.6
2,272.2
26.0%
1.8%
Residential
338.0
378.8
12.1%
0.9%
Commercial
222.6
235.8
5.9%
0.4%
Industrial
1,082.2
1,065.4
-1.6%
-0.1%
Transportation
1,460.0
1,818.4
24.6%
1.7%
Fugitive Emissions
254.9
217.4
-14.7%
-1.2%
Industrial Processes
301.1
304.1
1.0%
0.1%
Agriculture
439.6
439.1
-0.1%
0.0%
Waste
210.0
194.8
-7.2%
-0.6%
Agriculture
Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group
7
Emissions growth has varied
Illinois GHG Emission Trends by Sector 1990-2003
300
Industrial
Processes
Fugitive
Emissions
Million Tonnes CO2 Eq.
250
Waste
200
Commercial
Unusually
Warm Winter
National Recessions
Residential
150
Agriculture
100
Industrial
Transport
50
Electric
Generation
Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
20
99
19
98
19
97
19
96
19
95
19
94
19
93
19
92
19
91
19
19
90
0
8
Topics to Cover
• Data Sources and the Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT)
• Greenhouse Gases in Illinois and the U.S.
• Illinois Greenhouse Gas Projections to 2020
• Discussion
Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group
9
Projections methodology:
• Transportation, Residential, Commercial and Industrial
sector growth rates are based on EIA projections for
energy use in the East North Central region (IL, IN, MI, OH
and WI)
• Electric generation and non-energy sector growth rates are
derived from historic trends
• Illinois total GHG emissions are projected to increase at an
annual rate of 1.00%
Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group
10
IL GHGs projected to be 326 MtCO2e by 2020
IL GHG Emissions (Thousand Metric Tonnes CO2 Eq.)
Illinois actual and projected GHG Emissions 1990-2020
400,000
Actual
Projected
High
350,000
Best Guess
Best Guess:
Low
37.2%
above
1990 levels =
88 MtCO2e
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group
2015
2020
11
EIP could cut 22.9 million tonnes from
projected emissions by 2020
Illinois actual and projected GHG Emissions with
Energy Independence Plan measures 1990-2020
350,000
IL GHG Emissions (thousand metric tonnes CO2e)
Actual
26% below
best guess
case in 2020
Projected
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
Natural gas efficiency programs
Residential building code
100,000
RPS + EEPS
Biofuels (high)
1990 levels
Biofuels (low)
50,000
Baseline & Projection
1990 levels
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group
2015
2020
12
Discussion
Questions and Comments
Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group
13