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AOSC401, Spring 2014
Climate Dynamics and Earth System Science
Instructor: Prof. Zhanqing Li ([email protected])
Room 4013, M-Square Bldg off River Rd.
http://atmos.umd.edu/~zli
Course Assistant: Maureen Cribb ([email protected])
Guest Lecturers:
Dr. Warren Wiscombe, NASA/GSFC
(Global Warming and Paleoclimate)
Dr. Russ Dickerson, AOSC
(Air Pollution)
Dr. Sinead Farrell, NOAA/NASA/ESSIC
(Cryosphere and Sea Level Change)
Calendar
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First Class
Mid-Term Exam
Spring Break
Project
Last Class Day
Final Exam
January 28
March 13 (Thursday)
March 17-21
Week of April 14
May 8
TBD
Textbooks (Mixed use)
Title:
Authors:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Understanding Weather & Climate, 4th ed
E. Aguado and J.E. Burt
Pearson Education
0-13-149696-4
Title:
Authors:
Publisher:
ISBN:
The Earth System
Lee R. Kump, J. F. Kasting, R.G. Crane
Prentice-Hull Inc.
0-13-177387
Title:
Authors:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Global Physical Climatology
Dennis L. Hartmann,
Academic Press, 1994,
0-12-328530-5
Reference book
Title:
IPCC: Climate Change 2013: The Scientific
Basis
Authors: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:
Working Group I
Availability:
Freely downloadable from
http://www.climatechange2013.org/report/review-drafts/
Absence Policy
Students should notify the instructor prior to
absences via emails for explaining the circumstance
for the absence with supporting documents.
Students are asked to sign the attendance sheet to record
their attendance of each class. Those who have 100%
attendance will get a credit of 10 towards the final grade.
One absence without priori approval will get a 1% deduction
Only those in-advance excused absences due to the serious
illness or other emergence situations will not be counted as
“absence” if written and verifiable documents are provided.
Only the arrival within 5min of course start is counted.
Grading
•
•
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Class participation
Homework (~4 sets)
Two class quizzes
Mid-term Exam (75 min)
Final
10%
20%
20%
20%
30%
Quiz/exam Policy
There will be no makeup quizzes or exams except in case
of serious illness. You must be excused in advance by
phone or email to have a makeup quiz/exam with
doctor’s letter.
Other than pocket-size calculators, usage of all electronic
devices including cell phones is NOT allowed during
quizzes and exams. If found, the score for the quiz or
exam will automatically be ZERO.
My Expectation
•
Keep good attendance record
• Ask questions during/after classes.
• Be motivated and make efforts.
• Study the book and lecture notes
• Prepare for quizzes
• Complete homework in time.
• Remember some important facts.
• Understand fundamental physical principles.
• Understand the functioning of the Earth’s
climate and system
• Understanding the causes and consequence of
climate changes
My Commitments
• Be ready to answer questions.
• Work with anyone who needs additional help.
• Walk-in during office hours.
• Stay in the classroom a while after classes
• Motivate, challenge, and encourage each student.
• Return your quizzes and homework within one week
• Review any difficult problems, if needed.
• Review the materials before the final exam.
• Take your suggestions seriously. Don’t be shy!
Scope and Description of the Course
This is an introductory course on the climate and the earth
system. Emphasis is on scientific understanding on the
principle climate elements and processes, the spatial and
temporal variability of the Earth’s climate and the climate
changes. Topics include the global weather and climate
system; climate change; earth’s radiation budget; clouds
and aerosols; energy balance, the hydrologic cycle, and
general circulation of the atmosphere and oceans; the
natural variability of the atmosphere-ocean-biosphere;
carbon cycle and biogeochemistry, atmosphere-ocean
coupling and ENSO variability; potential human effects:
greenhouse effects, deforestation, acid rain, ozone
depletion, nuclear winter. Social, political and economic
aspects of changes in global environment.
Course Outline
Theme 1:
Theme 2:
Theme 3:
Theme 4:
Theme 5:
Theme 6:
Theme 7:
Course Outline and Introduction
Earth Observation
Radiation and Climate
Greenhouse Effect & Carbon Cycle
Global Warming
Cloud and climate
Aerosol and Climate
Course Outline
Theme 8:
Theme 9:
Theme 10:
Theme 11:
Theme 12:
Theme 13:
Theme 14:
Theme 15:
Air pollution
Ozone Depletion and Ultraviolet Radiation
Land Cover, Vegetation and Terrestrial System
Biomass Burning, deforestation and Volcano
Ocean and climate
Cryosphere and Climate
Sea-level Change
Climate change frontier
What is Climate?
•By the term
Climate we refer to the
average weather conditions and their ranges
expected at some location or region and time
of the year. This includes the mean values
of variables such as the temperature,
precipitation, humidity, cloudiness, pressure,
wind, visibility, and air quality and their
extremes.
The climate state is determined collectively
by local thermodynamic heating/cooling and
energy transported by motions.
•
Weather and Climate
La Guardia Max and Min Temp.
70
Temperature
60
50
Max Temp
40
Min Temp
30
Normal Max
20
Normal Min
10
0
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
Day
The actual minimum and maximum temperatures (in degrees
Fahrenheit) measured in New York City (La Guardia Airport) in
January 2005, as well as the climatological daily temperature range
for January.
Climate Variability
Climate is also concerned with itsvariability, for
example – the standard deviation of temperature.
Climate and Earth System
• Climate is determined by the complex response of several physical
components of the Earth System to the energy entailed in solar
radiation.
• The components that make up the Climate System are: the
atmosphere, the land surface (its morphology and cover), the
oceans, the cryosphere (ice cover of land & ocean), and the
biosphere.
• The Earth is an unique member of the Solar System in its ability to
sustain life. The climate system plays a major role by affecting
such factors as the range of temperatures and moisture availability.
• Climate has been continually changing due to external influences and
internal interactions.
The Climate System
The Climate Dynamics
Climate dynamics deals with the changes
of climate state variables which are
determined by the energy flow from one
component to other components of the
climate system: Energy cycle. The energy
cycle may also involve matter exchange
(e.g., hydrological cycle, Carbon cycle,
etc).
Earth’s Radiation Components
The Earth’s surface is kept warm
through one source: the Sun. It is the
primary source for Earth’s energy.
Some of the incoming sunlight and
heat energy is reflected back into
space by the Earth’s surface, gases in
the atmosphere, and clouds; some of it
is absorbed and stored as heat. When
the surface and atmosphere warm,
they emit heat, or thermal energy, into
space. The “radiation budget” is an
accounting of these energy flows. If
the radiation budget is in balance,
then Earth should be neither warming
nor cooling, on average.
Clouds, atmospheric water vapor and
aerosol particles play important roles
in determining global climate through
their absorption, reflection, and
emission of solar and thermal energy.
Global Warming
• Why is global warming is important?
There appears to be an accelerating pace of change
that could be linked to human activities.
• Why is global warming controversial?
It is so complex that we cannot easily separate
anthropogenic changes caused by industrial and
agricultural activities from natural variability.
Major Human Contribution to Climate Change or
Global Warming
• Land Cover Change: Human’s significant influence on
earth started about 10000 years ago due to agriculture
activities
• Greenhouse Effect refers to the atmospheric effect of
trapping some infrared radiation from leaving the planet
relative to that without the atmosphere. It is not the same
as the real “greenhouse”. The greenhouse effect of the
planet earth is about 15oC, in comparison to 460oC for
Venus. Only a small fraction of GH effect is induced by
human by adding the so called “trace gases” which
include CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs. None-CO2 trace gases
contribute as much global warming as that by CO2 in the
past decade.
• Burning of Fossil Fuels: coal, oil and natural gases,
composed from fossilized remains of organisms.
“Keeling Curve”
Trends of Temperature Change over Two Periods
1961-1990
1951-2008
℃/10
（
单
位
：
年
）
Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent
This yearly average plot includes a trend line and shows the uneven downward trend in the Arctic sea ice
extents over this time period. The trend line has a downward slope of 34,300 square kilometers (13,200 square
miles) per year. This suggests a loss of ice extent each year roughly equal to the combined areas of Maryland
and Delaware. The values used in these plots were derived from data from the Scanning Multichannel Microwave
Radiometer (SMMR) on board NASA’s Nimbus 7 satellite and from the Special Sensor Microwave Imagers
(SSMIs) on satellites of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program.
Plot credits: Claire L. Parkinson, Donald J. Cavalieri, Per Gloersen, H. Jay Zwally, and Josefino C. Comiso, NASA/GSFC. The plots first
appeared in an article by these scientists in the Journal of Geophysical Research in 1999.
Ozone Depletion
Stratospheric ozone protects all life forms
from the sun’s harmful ultraviolet
radiation. These images from the Total
Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS)
show the progressive depletion of
stratospheric ozone over Antarctica from
Dobson Units
1983 to 1997. High concentrations of
500
ozone are shown in red, low
concentrations in blue.
The Antarctic ozone hole develops each
400
September 1983
September 1987
Qtoui ck
Ti
™co
anmdpar es so r
- Jed
PEm
Gesde
aPrehone
ed
to
ee th
i s p ic t ur e.
year between late August and early
300
200
October. By September, 1998 it had
grown to cover 10.5 million square miles.
100
Scientists hope to see a reduction in
ozone loss as emissions of ozonedestroying CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons)
are reduced.
Image credit: Greg Shirah, NASA/GSFC Scientific
Visualization Studio
September 1993
September 1997
Deforestration
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Commercial Logging
Agriculture
Roads & Railways
Forest fires
Mining and drilling
Fuel-wood collection
Residential living
space
Things to Worry
• Amazon rain forest will be gone in 50-100
years
• Amazon river basin is home to hundreds of
thousands of plant species
• Not just local but global
– Convective and circulatory processes effected
Land Cover and Land Use
Change: Deforestation
Pre- Deforestation
Landsat image of Bolivian deforestation
Deforestation
Croplands cleared by Government
run-national farms
National Geographic, 1999
1975
1996
A City in the Desert
1972
2000
A Landsat image (above, left) taken in 1972 and an ASTER image (above, right) taken in 2000 of Riyadh, Saudi
Arabia dramatize evidence of an increasing human population. Population increases around the world have
caused all sorts of problems, such as air pollution, traffic jams, overextended water resources, overfilled
garbage dumps, and the destruction of natural wildlife habitats. Landsat and ASTER images provide important
long-term records of urban growth, and can help us make decisions about the most effective use of space and
resources for the future.
Landsat image credit: U.S. Geological Survey EROS Data Center and Landsat 7 Science Team
ASTER image credit: NASA/GSFC, METI/ERSDAC/JAROS, U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team
Air pollution: an emerging environmental issue in Asia
GROWTH IN INSTALLED CAPACITY IN ASIA
1993-2010
Gigawatts
1600
1400
1200
Others
Geothermal
Nuclear
Hydro
Coal
Gas
Oil
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1993
2000
2010
Source: Pacific Energy Outlook, Strategies and Policy Imperatives to 2010
Air Pollution: An Increasing Problem!
Mt. Everest
Phaplu, Nepal, March 25, 2001
Regional
Resource
Centre for
Asia and the Pacific
SULFUR DIOXIDE EMISSIONS BY REGION
90
80
million
tons/year
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990
2000
2010
Years
Europe
USA
Asia
Carbon Monoxide
Carbon monoxide (CO) is a colorless, odorless, toxic gas. CO reduces the oxygen-carrying capacity of blood in the
body and in day-to-day life can impair mental abilities, especially for those with heart and respiratory conditions.
Its production is a direct result of combustion caused predominantly by industrial processes and biomass burning.
Carbon monoxide levels have been increasing in the atmosphere. In this global image of carbon monoxide from
March 13-15, 2000, lavender indicates high CO values and blues indicate low values. The high concentrations of CO
in west central Africa are largely due to widespread biomass burning.
Image credit: Scientific Visualization Studio, NASA/GSFC, using data from the MOPITT Science Team
Impact: on Human Health
SO2 can increase Asthma by tenfold
30
NOx can increase asthma by 60%
25
O3 can increase asthma by 43%
PM can increase asthma by 32%
20
15
ASTHMA ON THE RISE
• Respiratory ailments such as asthma
increased to 30 % from 9% in 1979
among the < 18 age group in
Bangalore, India.
10
5
0
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
Estimated health cost due to air pollution
In India = $18-86 billion; in 36 Indian cities = $517-2102 million
Premature deaths due to air pollution
In India = 2.5 million; in 36 Indian cities= 40,000
Source: Down To Earth and SoE India 2001
Regional
Resource
Centre for
Asia and the Pacific
Water budget:
Flood & Drought
Highly
polluted
Polluted
Pristine
500 million people
Drought
Heavy rain
900 million people
Regional
Resource
Centre for
Asia and the Pacific
The Ocean & Global Climate
The Hydrological Cycle
(quantities shown are X 10 15 kg)
• The Ocean
regulates Earth’s
climate
• Dominates the
hydrological cycle
The Open University, 1989
Oceanic Climatic Variability
El Niño
•
•
•
El Niño: occurs approximately every 2-10 years.
Results in warming of the ocean waters across eastern and central Pacific
Ocean causing changes in global weather patterns.
During the peak of the 1997-98 El Niño, when warmer sea surface
temperatures (red) were as much as 5°C (9°F) above normal and sea surface
heights were as much as 35 centimeters (14 inches) above normal.
Normal Conditions: January 97
El Niño Conditions: November 97
NOAA, 1999
Mount Pinatubo
• Ash cloud covered 50,000
square miles
• Plume was over 12 miles
tall
• Eruption was ten times
larger than Mount St. Helens
in 1980
• Typhoon Yunya may have
made matters worse by adding
rain to the mix
• Ash fell as far as Vietnam
Image credit:
Sulfur Dioxide Emissions from
Mount Pinatubo
Sulfur dioxide emissions
day of Mount
Pinatubo’s eruption.
Sulfur dioxide emissions
one day after eruption.
Image credit:
Sulfur dioxide emissions
two weeks after
eruption.