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Download GHG projections of Romania
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GHG projections of Romania-How much is available? April 30 Bucharest, Romania Gamze Celikyilmaz-Aydemir Climate Change Department The Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe GHG Emission Trends and Projections in Europe in 2008 •In cooperation with ETC-EEA •Covering all the European countries •Web page: http://www.eea.europa.eu/ publications/eea_report_20 08_5 www.rec.org OUTLINE • • • • Base year GHG emissions and Kyoto target GHG Emission trends by sector GHG Projections Available AAUs for carbon market for the first commitment period. • Conclusions www.rec.org Base year GHG Emissions and Kyoto target • • • • Kyoto base year is 1989 for all gases Initial Report………281.895 Mt CO2 eq Expert review……..278.225 Mt CO2 eq Kyoto Target: -8% by 2012 278.225 x 92% = 255.967 Mt CO2 eq www.rec.org GHG EMISSION TRENDS BY SECTOR Source: Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development, 2007 www.rec.org Difference in base year emissions 2005 vs. 2006 Source: Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development, 2007 www.rec.org GHG by sectors in 2004 •fossil fuels combustion •domestic energy sources as lignite and hard coal •Fuel switch and increased EE. •methane emissions from agriculture and waste sectors possible. Source: Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development, 2007 www.rec.org GHG PROJECTIONS WEM and WAM projections for 2010 Base year 2010 emissions projections under the KP WEM Total GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) 2010 projections WAM 278.2 190.9 180.0 Mt CO2-eq. Mt CO2-eq. Mt CO2-eq. 100 % 68.4% 64.7% Source: European Environmental Agency, 2008 • 31.6 % and 35.3 % less then base year www.rec.org Projections for 2015 and 2020 based on WAM 290 278.2 MtCO2-eq. 270 250 230 220.3 210 199.5 190 180.0 170 2000 Base Year 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year Source: European Energy Agency, 2008 • Kyoto compliance even in 2020 • But GHG emissions further accelerating www.rec.org GIS in Romania Why GIS in Romania? • A strong decline in the GHG emissions and has a possible big surplus in Romania • Advantage of GIS: • Optional instrument to secure the environmental benefits of the sales of AAUs • flexibility in project eligibility and approval • flexibility in designing financial mechanisms for project support. www.rec.org How much AAUs can be sold? • AA2008-2012 = 1,299,349,047 tCO2-eq. • Commitment Period Reserve (most recent inventory bases) 5 x GHG emissions in 2004 = 800,298,657 tCO2-eq • Remaining AAUs 1,299,349,047 - 800,298,657 = 499,050,390 tCO2-eq. www.rec.org Why to be careful with AAUs? • Energy sector increase since 1999 • Increase in the investments since 2004 (EU membership) • global economic crisis is TEMPORARY • Energy and agriculture sectors are projected to increase GHG emission for the 2010-2020 • GHG emmission calculation models to be improved • Projection models to be improved www.rec.org Why to be careful with AAUs? • New methodologies/models are implemented • Projection calculations to be revised based on new emission calculation & projection models • Overselling the AAUs may jeopardize the compliance with Kyoto targets www.rec.org Summary and Conclusion • WEM will be enough for 2012 commitment • Projected emissions for 2015 and 2020 will remain still very much below the Kyoto target. • A high potential of further GHG reduction • High potential for GIS projects • However, there is a potential of accelerated increase of emissions • Changes in the models and methodologies for projections should be taken into account • Compliance to Kyoto targets should be the priority www.rec.org Thank you Gamze Celikyilmaz-Aydemir Climate Change Department Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe [email protected] www.rec.org