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COPING WITH CLIMATE CHANGE Clive Bowman Clim-ATIC project coordinator UHI Science Day Pickaquoy Centre, Kirkwall, Friday 5th September 2008 www.clim-atic.org A Project part-financed by the European Union and the European Regional Development Fund www.live-the-solution.com Causes of climate change * * IPCC 2007 “It is very likely that greenhouse gas forcing has been the dominant cause of the observed warming of globally averaged temperatures in the last 50 years” Fossil fuels used in transport Domestic activities Industry and manufacturing Land management Scottish Green House Gas Emissions Land use change and Forestry emissions 8% Public 2% Waste 1% Residential 11% Energy 37% Agricultural 12% Business 12% Transport 17% Contribution of each sector to Scottish GHG Emissions of GHGs in 2003 Scotland Rural Development Programme 2007 - 2013: Strategic Environmental Assessment - Environmental Report Its already happening! “Climate change is evident in Scotland from observed trends in temperature, rainfall and snow cover.” And its going to get worse! “Much of the change in climate over the next 30 to 40 years is already determined by past and present emissions, so it is important that Scotland prepares itself for the inevitable impacts.” SEPA’s State of the Environment Report 2006 average spring, summer and winter temperatures have risen by more than 1°C since 1961 Change in mean temperature (°C) based on a linear trend, 1961–2004 SEPA’s State of the Environment Report 2006 UK top 10 warmest years Year (°C) Difference from average with respect to 1971-2000 1998 +0.52 2005 +0.48 2003 +0.46 2002 +0.46 2004 +0.43 2006 +0.42 2007 (Jan-Nov) +0.41 2001 +0.40 1997 +0.36 1995 +0.28 Source: Met Office Hadley Centre and UEA Climatic Research Unit 2007 Some parts of north-west Scotland have become up to 45% drier in summer Scotland has become much wetter since 1961 with: • an increase in average winter precipitation of almost 60% in the north and west; • an increase in average annual precipitation of 20% for the whole country. Change in precipitation (%) based on a linear trend, 1961–2004C5 SEPA’s State of the Environment Report 2006 high winter flow frequencies on western source rivers have increased over the past two decades Changes in winter river flows at selected locations SEPA’s State of the Environment Report 2006 Summary characteristics of the 4 IPCC storylines Profile A1 A2 B1 B1 B2 B2 Population growth low high low medium GDP growth very high medium high medium Energy use very high high low medium Land- use changes low medium/high high medium Resource availability medium low low medium rapid slow medium medium F fossil T non fossil B balanced regional efficiency & dematerialization “dynamics as usual” Pace of technological change Change favouring CO2 EMISSION PROFILES under IPCC scenarios The IS92a scenario used by the IPCC is the business as usual scenario Global mean annual temperature changes relative to 1980 – 1999 (ºC) for IPCC scenarios 5.2 5.8 www.live-the-solution.com Vegetation of the Arctic: current conditions and projected changes under the IS92a scenario for 2090-2100 Table of climate change impacts for Scotland taken from SEPA’s State of the Environment Report 2006 Aspect Implications Water resource More frequent and severe river flooding, affecting 77,000 properties Increased likelihood of summer droughts leading to river water quality problems and disruption of water supply Biodiversity Changes in abundance and distribution of species and length of growing season Higher temperatures less favourable for native species High intensity rainfall causing destruction to river habitat & Increased erosion and siltation with consequences for fish spawning Disruption to food chain with potential catastrophic loss of species (e.g. island breeding sea bird populations) Marine Higher sea level, increased wave height leading to coastal erosion and loss of habitat & more frequent and coastal flooding affecting 93,000 properties Loss of traditional commercial fishery Land surface Drying out of soils combined with higher intensity storm events causing landslides, with potential disruption of transport links Accelerated decomposition of peaty soils resulting in increased emissions of carbon dioxide and methane, fuelling further climate change Increased soil loss through water and wind erosion Changes to agricultural practice and crops (e.g. longer growing season) Human health Increased flood-related stress, illness and economic costs Increased respiratory illness and heat-related distress Fewer cold-related deaths Water quality Periods of reduced river flow providing less dilution for discharges with increased sewage treatment costs Increased treatment costs to provide water supplies Increased run-off impacting on bathing water quality Air quality Local and regional ozone air quality goals probably more difficult to achieve in the future An increase in summertime photochemical smog, linked to increasing temperatures and small reductions in cloud cover Likely that the frequency of wintertime air quality pollution events will reduce Weather The weather will become more erratic and therefore less predictable, with a greater likelihood of extreme events. www.live-the-solution.com Communities are on the front line! How can they adapt? The Clim-ATIC project 2.35 Million Euro Understanding climate change adaptation at a community level for northern regions European Regional Development Fund’s Northern Periphery Programme 2007 - 2013. www.clim-atic.org A Project part-financed by the European Union and the European Regional Development Fund 5 participating regions in Clim-ATIC Uummannaq Rovaniemi, Kittilä and Kolari, Lapland Illulissat Iceland County of Vasterbotten, and Åre Sisimiut Flora, Sogn og Fjordane Faroe Islands Glen Urquhart and the Cairngorms National Park Adaptation to Climate change impacts anticipatory or reactive? The earlier we start adapting, the better equipped we will be to cope with higher temperatures, increased rainfall and the other potential changes. Adapting to climate change is a process. It needs to be built in to our normal planning and risk management processes, whether in business, government or community. Having the ability to adapt is called ‘adaptive capacity’ and this is increased through: 1. knowledge 2. experience 3. resources Socio-economic development Changes in natural systems Climate Change Impacts Advantages Mitigation Disadvantages Adaptive capacity Opportunities Adaptation Threats Decision making Diagram adapted from Finland’s National Adaptation Strategy (2005) Build community capacity through knowledge with communities Rovaniemi Ilulissat Cairngorms National Park Flora Sogn og Fjordane Lycksele Glen Urquhart Culture and Fishing Natural Risk County Plan for Tourism Land use traditions Tourism heritage management Climate and Reindeer management Flooding Sustainable Land use Sea level rise Energy herding Sustainable Tourism transport management Health Forestry flood risk Snow activities Sustainable Agriculture Energy Agriculture management energy Tourism management Transportation Agriculture management Biodiversity Business Energy New development systems development Snow cover Tourism Flooding Knowledge sources climate models and data + socio-economic data + local knowledge Current climate Current society Future climate change scenarios Future social change scenarios Community Vulnerability Scenarios Knowledge communication and use Climate change impact visualisations Community / stakeholder brainstorming meetings Community adaptation action plans Building adaptation knowledge with communities 11 to 18 year olds in the Cairngorms National Park Forest owners in Sweden Tourism operators in Rovaniemi, Finland Landowners and farmers in Glen Urquhart Ski area businesses in Åre, Sweden Building community capacity through experience sustainable transport sustainable energy management New tourism opportunities Finland Greenland tourism opportunities Dog sledging on thin ice! Climate change tourism and sustainable huts Norway Scotland Trial of EV for community use Tourism opportunities and ski area adaptation Sweden Winter tourism and sustainable transport project - partnership of ski industry and LA risk management and response GIS flood mapping for development planning Fish waste to Biogas Impacts on energy supply infrastructure Land slides and public warning system Wood fuel cooperative – local business and suppliers River restoration project sustainable flood management Woodland owners management plans Adaptation demonstration projects Dog sledge adaptations in Greenland Mapping the tourism products of Northern Finland Fish waste to Bio-gas in Greenland Climate change tourism and sustainable accommodation huts in Greenland Risk and response management in Norway Tourism destination management in Scotland GIS-based flood hazard maps - Rovaniemi, Finland River restoration river Enrick, Glen Urquhart Trial of EV for community use The Clim-ATIC project www.clim-atic.org www.clim-atic.org A Project part-financed by the European Union and the European Regional Development Fund