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Agriculture & Adaptation to Climate Change John Reilly Massachusetts Institute of Technology Appearance before the Standing Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry 25 March 2003, Ottawa, Canada Climate, Weather, & Markets Climate change: beneficial or detrimental Time Scale—crop season, decade, century Persistent trend, variability Beyond the farm gate: resources, pollution, transportation, communities Observed trends, predicted changes. US Regional Production Changes, Canadian Center Index, 0=no change Climate 100 50 0 northea lakesta cornbel northpl appalac southea deltast southpl mountai pacific -50 -100 2030 2030 w/adapt 2090 2090 w/adapt Index, 0=no change Regional Production Changes, Hadley Center Climate 150 100 50 0 northea lakesta cornbel northpl 2030 appalac southea 2030 w/adapt 2090 deltast southpl mountai 2090 w/adapt pacific Changes in Resource Use, Canadian and Hadley Center Climates Percent change 20 0 -20 Irrig. Land Dryland Cropland Pasture AUMs -40 -60 2030 cc 2090 cc 2030 hc 2090 hc Water Labor Adaptation: Cautions A few years may mislead with regard to the long term trend; predictability at relevant spatial scales is a distant goal or impossibility. Is an adaptive investment viable if trend persists? irrigation may work for a while but not long if the water source disappears. Economic assistance may reduce incentive to make the difficult but necessary changes. Adaptation Economics and Management Price (profit, loss) as signals. Risk management & market instruments. Information Monitoring/analysis of weather trends Improved medium-run forecasting Education re. climate change & potential responses. Specific Technological Responses Water management Crop varieties, planting dates Pest management