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Transcript
Mitigating Near-Term Climate Change:
Black Carbon And Short-Lived
Greenhouse Gases
John C. Topping, Jr.
Leaders Preserving Our Future: Pace and Priorities on Climate Change
World Preservation Foundation • London • 3 November 2010
“On the basis of the increasing pace of
global warming, including the potential for
an abrupt acceleration, … the risk appears
to be increasing that a tipping point leading
to ‘dangerous,’ or perhaps even
catastrophic change could surprise us in
the years ahead.”
Dr. Michael C. MacCracken
Warming Effect During 21st Century
Business as Usual Emissions Scenario, Assumes Some Improvement in Energy Efficiency
8
Radiative Forcing (watts per sq meter)
7
6
5
4
3
2
21st Century CO2 only
1
20th Century GHG Emissions
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
Credit: MacCracken 2009
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YEAR
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2100
Warming Effect During 21st Century
Business as Usual Emissions Scenario, Assumes Some Improvement in Energy Efficiency
8
Radiative Forcing (watts per sq meter)
7
6
5
4
3
2
21st Century CO2
1
20th Century GHG Emissions
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
Credit: MacCracken 2009
2030
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YEAR
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2080
2090
2100
Warming Effect During 21st Century
Business as Usual Emissions Scenario, Assumes Some Improvement in Energy Efficiency
8
Radiative Forcing (watts per sq meter)
7
6
5
4
3
2
21st Century CO2
1
20th Century GHG Emissions
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
Credit: MacCracken 2009
2030
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YEAR
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2100
Warming Effect During 21st Century
Business as Usual Emissions Scenario, Assumes Some Improvement in Energy Efficiency
8
Radiative Forcing (watts per sq meter)
7
6
5
4
3
20th C
BC
2
21st Century CO2
1
20th Century GHG Emissions
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
Credit: MacCracken 2009
2030
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2100
Successful Climate Change Solutions
Require Moving Beyond CO2's Challenges
 Century long atmospheric lifetime
 CO2 emission inertia bound to global
energy and agriculture systems
 Difficult to achieve North-South
consensus
 Uncertainty in CO2 regulation
Slashing emissions of black carbon and
short-lived GHGs must be part of any
credible strategy for climate stabilization
Rethinking How We Compare GHGs
 Common Metric:
1 tonne of methane = 22 tonnes of CO2
 Possible New Metric:
1 tonne of methane = 75 tonnes of CO2
What’s the difference? (Hint: Methane only lasts 12 years)
Rethinking How We Compare GHGs
 Common Metric:
1 tonne of methane = 22 tonnes of CO2
 Possible New Metric:
1 tonne of methane = 75 tonnes of CO2
Over Period of
100 years
Over Period of
20 years
Warming Effect
1 Tonne of Methane
vs. 1 Tonne of CO2
Methane
CO2
20
12
100
Years
Warming Effect From GHGs and BC
Emission Type
Warming Effect in 2005
over Pre-Industrial
(watts / m2)
Atmospheric Lifetime
Carbon Dioxide
1.56
Centuries-Millennia
Methane
0.86
12 years
N 2O
0.14
114 years
CFC / HCFC
0.28
100-1000 years
CO / VOC
(O3 precursors)
0.27
CO – months, VOC – hours
(O3 – weeks)
Black Carbon
0.44-0.9
1-2 weeks
Total
3.55 – 4.01
Sources: IPCC AR4 (2007) , MacCracken and Moore (2008), Ramanathan and Carmichael (2008)
Tropospheric Ozone
 Formed as a secondary product of other emissions
 By oxidation of methane, CO, and VOCs in the presence of NOx
 Once formed, lasts 20 – 24 days
 Warming Effect is ~ 0.3 W/m2
 18% of CO2 effect
Methane
 Atmospheric concentrations rising after several years of
stability
 Lasts 12 years in atmosphere
 Warming Effect is ~ 0.86 W/m2
 Just over 50% of CO2 effect
 Win-Win opportunities to reduce methane
Black Carbon (Soot)
 Dark-colored type of aerosol / particulate matter (PM)
 Absorbs sunlight and heat
 Stays in atmosphere for only 1 – 2 weeks
 Atmospheric Warming Effect is 0.44 – 0.9 W/m2
 28 – 55% of CO2 effect
 Decreased snow albedo in Arctic and Himalayas
 Enormous regional increase in warming effect
 Globally averaged, is an additional 0.1 – 0.2 W/m2
 Harmful to human respiratory health
Regional Effects
• “ Tropospheric ozone and BC snow albedo effect
contribute substantially to rapid warming and sea ice
loss in the Arctic ” - James Hansen et al. 2005
• Arctic Warming Since 1890 (Shindell et al. 2009)
• Black carbon:
• Trop. Ozone:
0.5 – 1.4˚C
0.2 – 0.4˚C
• Shindell estimates that combined
sulfate decrease and BC increase
caused 75% of direct Arctic
warming over past 30 years
Benefits from Black Carbon Reduction
 Atmospheric loading and warming influence will drop as
emissions drop
 Acute decrease in Arctic warming
 Reducing certain BC emissions will result in:
 Reduced indoor air pollution, which kills 1.9M annually
 Reduced outdoor air pollution, which kills 0.8M annually
Warming Effect During 21st Century
Business as Usual Emissions Scenario, Assumes Some Improvement in Energy Efficiency
8
Radiative Forcing (watts per sq meter)
7
6
5
4
3
20th C
BC
2
21st Century CO2 only
1
20th Century GHG Emissions
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
Credit: MacCracken 2009
2030
2040
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YEAR
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2100
Warming Effect During 21st Century
Aggressive Reductions in both GHGs and Black Carbon
8
Radiative Forcing (watts per sq meter)
7
6
5
4
3
2
21st Century CO2 only
1
20th Century GHG Emissions
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
Credit: MacCracken 2009
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YEAR
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Near-Term Changes in Warming Effect
Black Carbon is Critical to Reducing Near-Term Warming
Radiative Forcing (watts per sq meter)
6
5
6
Aggressive Reductions
in BC and GHGs
Business
as
Business
as Usual
Usual
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
YEAR
Credit: MacCracken 2009
2030
2040 1990
2000
2010
2020
YEAR
2030
2040
Black Carbon Policy
 Not part of Kyoto Protocol or any carbon valuation system
 Models for poor-rich country cooperation
 Clean cookstove efforts
 Manila jeepneys
 Developed countries must continue their BC reductions
 Strengthen diesel standards
 Increasing industrial energy recycling
 Acting aggressively through Arctic Council to slash BC
emissions affecting Arctic
Ways to Reduce BC
• Diesel Particulate Traps
• Jeepney Retrofits
• Biodegradable Motor Oils
• Vessel Emissions
• Industrial Energy Recycling
• Cleaner Cookstoves
• Suppression of Arctic Forest Fires
Tickell Interactive Network
Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves
A new public-private partnership led by the United Nations Foundation seeking to
create a thriving global market for clean cookstoves in the developing world in
order to:
• Save lives by reducing exposure to cookstove smoke;
• Empower women through productive enterprises associated with stove
use, distribution, and production;
• Improve livelihoods by reducing disease, freeing time and saving money
(which can be used for the purchase of food, medicine, or school
fees) and many other social benefits (e.g. clean kitchen, extra time, etc.
• Combat climate change by mitigating emissions of black carbon and
greenhouse gases, reducing rate of deforestation
• Advance Millennium Development Goals related to poverty, health, gender
equality, and the environment.
Photo Credit: Sunil Lal
Photo Credit: E+Co
Photo Credit: GTZ
Photo Credit: Nigel Bruce
Thank You
www.climate.org
[email protected]