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VAMOS TO THE FUTURE:
Report and emerging priorities
Hugo Berbery – Dave Gochis
Co-chairs
Iracema Cavalcanti – Paquita Zuidema
Officer Members
Carlos Ereño
ICPO
With many thanks to
US CLIVAR for their continued
support
Variability of the American Monsoon Systems
Science Programs
• North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME)
• Monsoon Experiment for South America (MESA)
• VAMOS Ocean Cloud Atmosphere Land Study (VOCALS)
• Intra-Americas Study of Climate Processes (IASCLIP)
Cross-cuts
• Modeling
• Extremes
• Anthropogenic Climate Change
CLIVAR and GEWEX endorsed activity
• La Plata Basin Regional Hydroclimate Project (LPB)
(CLARIS-LPB and IAI-LPB)
Numerical Weather Prediction Division
VOCALS – Achievements 2010/2011
• PUBLICATIONS: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (EGU Journal)
VOCALS Special Issue set up, currently 30 papers in ACP special issue;
60-70 total. VOCALS-REx operations overview paper published (Wood et
al. 2011)
• MEETINGS: Special VOCALS sessions at AMS Cloud Physics Conference
(June 2010), and AGU Fall Meeting (Dec 2010); VOCALS 3rd Science
Meeting Miami (March 2011); poster cluster planned for WCRP Open
Science Conf. (Oct 2011). Special session requested for AGU Fall Mtg (Dec
2011).
• VOCALS OBSERVATIONAL SYNTHESES: The 20°S latitude line captures a
wide range of boundary-layer/cloud processes, lending itself well to
model-observational comparisons
• Synthesis papers published documenting SE Pacific clouds and
atmospheric structure, composition and variability sampled along 20oS
during VOCALS-REx, Allen et al. (2011) and Bretherton et al. (2010)
• Seven years of VOCALS cruise data compiled along 20oS and described in
deSzoeke et al. (2010)
VOCALS – Achievements 2010/2011
•
MODEL ASSESSMENT: Completion of PreVOCA Model Assessment:
Modeling the lower troposphere in Southeast Pacific for Oct. 2006 period
pre-VOCALS-REx. Paper published, Wyant et al. (2010).
– Large scale dynamics well-represented but representation of clouds is poor in
general, and coastal model boundary layers are too shallow
•
Second phase of VOCALS Model Asessment (VOCA) began fall 2010,
ongoing. Focus is upon aerosol-cloud-climate interactions. Participation from
most major modeling centers.
•
MODEL DEVELOPMENT: Two Climate Process Teams (CPT) supported by
NOAA and NSF will use VOCALS observations and process modeling of
VOCALS case studies.
• Climate model improvement of PBL representations assessment (e.g. NCAR
CCSM)
IASCLIP

An integrated ocean-atmosphere research program focusing
on the prediction of the weather and climate impacts of the warm
water pool of the Americas (EastPac-Gulf-Caribbean). The
WHWP is poorly predicted by research and operational models.

With cooperation of various federal and foreign funding agencies,
IASCLIP seeks to improve and expand the observational
network across the region as a means to improve NCEP
operational models. Early warning systems and long term climate
monitoring will benefit from the new network.

IASCLIP seeks to improve operational and research modeling
efforts across the Americas through a better understanding of the
climate processes within the region.
IASCLIP Status
Status of the Observational Network
and Climate Modeling in the IASCLIP Domain
CPO has supported An IASCLIP Team to visit countries within the region to
assess government and university interest and possible participation in
planned IASCLIP activities
2010
2001-2009
<=2000
Radiosonde Stations
Last Reporting Period
FSU June Ensemble Forecast
The 2010 Warm Water Pool
Climatological area of 28.5 isotherm is shaded in red and the
contours show the 28.5 isotherm for all ensemble members. The
ensembles include 10 members/day from June 15 to June 24,
2010.
The Challenge for the 2011
IASCLIP Forecast Forum is to
unravel the indicators that are
pushing some models towards El
Nino within the backdrop of an
active late Amazon monsoon and
Atlantic cooling.
Implementing
the VAMOS Modeling Plan
• Leveraging
– WGSIP
– VAMOS
– CHFP, CMIP5, VOCALS, IASCLIP, NAME,
MESA, LPB, CLARIS-LPB, CORDEX …
• How To Coordinate Ongoing
Activities into a Coherent
Narrative?
• Enabling/Facilitating
Collaborative Science?
– Exchange of Ideas
VAMOS Modeling Survey: Is Coordination Needed?
VAMOS Modeling Workshop Planned for 2012
VAMOS Extremes Working Group
Siegfried Schubert and Iracema Cavalcanti
(cochairs)
• The overall focus is on improving our understanding of the
mechanisms and predictability of warm season extremes over the
Americas
– Develop atlas of warm-season extremes over the Americas
– Evaluation of existing and planned simulations
– New model runs to address mechanisms and predictability of extremes
http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/subseasonal/atlas/Extremes.html
Web page: Charaterizing Extremes for the recent past over the Americas
http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/subseasonal/atlas/Extremes.html
Basic climatologies
Precipitation extremes
SPI time series and maps
Precipitation return values based on GEV
fits, including impact of ENSO
Various temperature extremes - latest
Data sets: MERRA, CFSR,
gridded station obs (CPC, CDC)
10
Climatology – Annual Cycle of Daily Precipitation
Annual Cycle of daily Precipitation
MERRA
CFSR
CPC
CDC
Choice of Regions
NAM
Annual Cycle of daily Precipitation
MERRA
CFSR
W. Brazil
CPC
CDC
11
VAMOS Extremes WG
EXAMPLES
12
Miami Workshop on Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land Processes in the
Tropical Atlantic: VAMOS Comments
Miami, FL, 23-25 March 2011
VAMOS is interested in promoting
overlap with the following research
communities: IASCLIP tropical Atlantic/
Intra Americas Seas, NAM, Amazon …
VAMOS panel is supportive of a
proposal to form a task team with
the goals to:
1. refine scope of issue
2. tighten scientific hypotheses
3. structure a research framework
La Plata Basin (LPB)
Regional Hydroclimate Project
(keywords: extremes, predictability, land use, CC)
CLARIS – LPB: A Europe-South America Network for Climate Change
Assessment and Impact Studies in La Plata Basin
IAI:
Integrated research projects on land use in the La Plata
basin
CIC/GEF:
Framework Program: Sustainable Management of the
Water Resources of the La Plata Basin with respect to
the Effects of Climate Variability and Change
CLARIS LPB
- 10 countries, 20 institutions
- Coordinator: J.-P. Boulanger
Courtesy of Anna Sorensson
· WP3: Improving our description of recent past climate variability in La Plata Basin
· WP4: Hydroclimate past and future low-frequency variability, trends and shifts
· WP5: Regional Climate Change assessments for La Plata Basin
· WP6: Processes and future evolution of extreme climate events in La Plata Basin
· WP8: Land use, agriculture and socio-economic implications
· WP9: Water resources in La Plata Basin in the context of climate change
http://www.claris-eu.org/
Integrated research projects on
land use in the La Plata basin
• Collaborative Research Network Program II (2006-2012)
•
•
The impact of land cover and land use changes (LCLUC) on the hydroclimate of
the La Plata Basin (CRN2094).
Land use change in the Rio de la Plata Basin: linking biophysical and human
factors to understand trends, assess impacts, and support viable strategies for
the future (CRN2031).
• Small Grant Program for the Human Dimensions (2007-2011)
•
•
•
Climate change and irrigated agriculture
Coming down the mountain: vulnerability of Andean communities to
hydroclimatologic variability and global environmental change
Decision support system for risk reduction in soybean agriculture for eastern
Paraguay and Rio Grande do Sul
• Land use change, biofuels and rural development in the La Plata Basin
– Five projects funded by International Development Research Centre (IDRC) (20082011)
IAI on LPB: research themes
Land use
Rural development
LCLUC Water
Ecosystems
Biofuels
Climate
Carbon
Agriculture
Societal impacts
Human dimensions
Vulnerability - Adaptation
Capacity Building
IAI Synthesis Meeting in Asunción, Paraguay
(4-7 April, 2011)
How can we unify approaches and refine our
knowledge of what drives land use change
and transitions? (agent based models,
stochastic techniques and scenarios)
How do LCLUCs interact with climate, Carbon
balances, radiation effects, hydrological
impacts and overall energy balance? Can the
science of those processes be presented in a
systematic way?
How did the interdisciplinary collaboration
between natural and human sciences
contribute to significant advances in
knowledge and what did we learn in the
process?
CLIVAR Imperatives
1. Anthropogenic Climate Change
VAMOS Working Group on ACC
NARCAPP + CLARIS LPB + …
Numerical Weather Prediction Division
CLIVAR Imperatives
2. Decadal Variability, Predictability and Prediction
(Monsoons; Extremes – drought; …)
3. Intraseasonal and Seasonal Predictability and Prediction
(Role of land/ocean (GOALS); Initialization; Monsoons, ISV/MJO)
VAMOS Working Group on
Extremes
Siegfried Schubert and Iracema
Cavalcanti
Annual Cycle of daily Precipitation
VAMOS Modeling Working
Group
Ben Kirtman and Celeste Saulo
Model biases
Numerical Weather Prediction Division
CLIVAR Imperatives
4. Improved Atmosphere and Ocean Components of ESMs
5. Data Synthesis and Analysis
6. Ocean Observing System
(Ocean model development; Analysis and Evaluation; Process studies/“Climate Process Teams”)
VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study (VOCALS)
Roberto Mechoso; Rob Wood
Intra-Americas Study of Climate Processes (IASCLIP)
Art Douglas
AIP - VAMOS/VOCALS Workshop on model biases
Numerical Weather Prediction Division
CLIVAR Imperatives
7. Capacity Building
THE INTERNATIONAL SUMMER SCHOOL ON
LAND COVER CHANGE AND HYDROCLIMATE OF THE LA PLATA BASIN
VAMOS Newsletter
(outreach)
International
Interdisciplinary
In situ
Classes + Lab + Field Trip
Numerical Weather Prediction Division
Contributing as co-conveners
Oral presentations
Cluster Posters
We expect to increase our
collaborations with:
- US CLIVAR
- IAI
- Other regional Agencies