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Climate Change Policy in an Obama Administration Tom Lindley Perkins Coie LLP November 22, 2008 U.S. Federal Approach to Climate Change The debate has shifted: • From causes and effects to mitigation methods and timelines • From voluntary, incentivebased programs to mandatory, market-based regulation Federal Climate Change Policy in the Bush Administration: 2000-2008 • President Bush's approach focused on voluntary, marketbased incentive programs and partnerships managed by the Environmental Protection Agency and Department Of Energy • Only limited regulatory action has taken place recently: • Carbon Sequestration Rules (July 2008) • Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (July2008) • GHG Reporting Rules (draft to OMB) State & Regional Climate Change Policy There have been many more developments with regional and state-based regulation • Regional Action: • RGGI, Midwest Accord, WCI • California's AB 32 leads the way • 18 states now have mandatory greenhouse gas reporting rules U.S. Regional Programs Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Oct. 17, 2008 President-Elect Obama: Climate Change & Energy Campaign policies vague, but emphasize: • Cap-and-trade-style emissions reductions • Improved energy efficiency • Energy independence • Green job creation Obama Campaign During the campaign, Obama proposed broad reforms in climate and energy policy : • Economy-wide cap-and-trade system • Invest $150 billion over 10 years in advanced energy technologies • Improve energy efficiency • Make the U.S. an international leader in combating climate change Obama Campaign Obama's cap-and-trade plan: • Mandatory, economy-wide • Reduce emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 • 80% reduction below 1990 levels by 2050 • Allocation: 100% auction of allowances • Limited use of offsets Obama Campaign Obama's cap-and-trade plan does not specify: • Sectors covered • Reporting start date • Emissions cap start date • Early action credit • Preemption of state/regional programs Obama Campaign Obama's cap-and-trade plan would reinvest allocation revenues: • $150 billion over 10 years in: •Plug-in hybrids •Commercial scale renewable energy •Energy efficiency and weatherization projects •Low emissions coal plants •Next generation biofuels and fuel infrastructure •Transition to new digital electricity grid • Assist workers and low income families with "transition" costs Obama Campaign International Commitments: • Re-engage with the UNFCCC • December 2008: UN Climate Change Conference, Poznań, Poland • November/December 2009: UN Climate Change Conference, Copenhagen • Create "Global Energy Forum" of largest emitters • Technology transfer to developing countries • Confront deforestation; promote carbon sequestration Agency roles in the Obama Administration EPA DOE • Possible elevation to • Large role: climate cabinet status • EPA to regulate emissions under existing Clean Air Act • CA waiver would be approved change is an energy issue • Clean energy initiatives • Possible appointment of National Energy Security Director Congress & Climate Change Policy • New cap-and-trade legislation is expected to be introduced in the latter half of 2009 or early 2010. • Until then, three recent bills are being discussed as starting points for the 111th Congress: • Senate: Lieberman-Warner • House: Dingell-Boucher • House: Markey Congress & Climate Change Policy Recent Climate Change Bills: S. 2191 Lieberman-Warner • First cap-and-trade bill to be voted out of committee • Defeated by Senate procedural vote in June 2008 • Some language/initiatives may carry over, but bill will die in 110th Congress • New sponsorship needed: McCain, Boxer expected to lead Congress & Climate Change Policy Recent Climate Change Bills: Dingell-Boucher "discussion draft" • Released for comment October 7, 2008 • Four scenarios proposed • Less aggressive initial reductions • Blanket preemption of state/regional cap-and-trade initiatives • May become leading bill in 111th Congress unless Waxman replaces Dingell as chair of Energy and Commerce Committee Congress & Climate Change Policy Recent Climate Change Bills: H.R. 6186: Markey's iCAP Act • Chair of select committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming • Named by House Speaker Pelosi to specifically address global warming issues • Introduced June 4, but no further action taken • Committee may dissolve in favor of Rep. Dingell's Energy and Commerce Committee Cap-and-Trade Policy Comparison Policy Lieberman-Warner (S.2191) Dingell-Boucher (discussion draft) Obama (campaign policies) Targets 19% below the 2005 emissions by 2020 71% below the 2005 emissions by 2050. 6% below 2005 levels by 2020 80% below 2005 levels by 2050 Reduction to 1990 levels by 2020 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 Allowance Allocation Initially: 76% allocated and 24% auctioned By 2036: 27% allocated and 73% auctioned Mix of allocation and auction until 2026 100% auction of allowances beginning in 2026 with revenues returned on a per capita basis to citizens unless Congress reauthorizes the legislation 100% auction from beginning Preempt state/regional programs No explicit preemption, incentives to encourage states to fold into national program Blanket preemption of state cap-andtrade initiatives Not specified, but probably would not favor blanket preemption Use of offsets 2012: 30% of allowance allocation may be satisfied with offsets Initially limited to 5% of allowance allocation due to low initial reduction targets 2024: up to 35% Not specified ("limited") Federal Climate Change Policy Will emissions reductions remain a top priority in an Obama Administration? Many competitors… • Recession, economy • Subprime mortgage crisis • Tax and healthcare reform • Wars in Iraq & Afghanistan Federal Climate Change Policy Many key issues under a cap-and-trade program remain unresolved… • Level and timing of cuts • Offsets: domestic, international, or none? • Grandfathered vs. auctioned allowances • Federal preemption of state and regional programs Federal Climate Change Policy Key cap-and-trade debates continued: • Leakage: whether to first obtain international commitments from developing countries • Support for bridge technology (CCS, nuclear) • Expansion of renewables (wind, solar, biofuels) • Early action credit Questions & Comments