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Debating Environment/Environment Philosophy 2012 GMU PATRIOT DEBATE INSTITTUTE YOUNG Environmental Issues Climate Change Biodiversity Marine Biodiversity Rainforest Deforestation Ozone Layer Global Warming Rise in global temperature near Earth’s surface. Difference between climate change--significant change in the measures of climate lasting for an extended period of time—precipitation, wind patterns, etc. Ways in which global warming affects human lives— TRANSPORTATION!! AGW Anthropogenic global warming—”Anthropogenic” means human inducted warming Joseph Fourier 1820s—Greenhouse Gas Effects— Radiation from the sun—deflected back, but captured by the GHG. CO2 level has been increasing since the Industrial Revolution CO2 Level Increase =/= directly correlated with warming. NO AGW Cyclical—empirical records (geological) shows that warming occurred before the CO2 level increased. Other factors—rotation of the Earth (Milankovitch Cycle)/Water vapor/other weather events NOT caused by human actions—solar varability New forecasts of global climate that contradicts the AGW theory. Oil lobbies—distortion of climate data. Scientific consensus usually flips aff on this question— What do you do? Author Indicts Reluctance—refutation is at stake! False projection/forecasting method—scientific evidence not VALIDATED! A2: Consensus—incorrect tally of scientific opinions. IPCC—Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change— created under the UN World Meteorological Organization—speculation/failed review process/Political/130 subscribing countries. NOAA—false data collecting methods. Government-sponsored research—for pro-AGW groups. Positive Feedback Feedback: 1.2-1.3 Celsius increase—only accounts for direct increase of CO2—changes in the climate system that follows. Internal links take out/turns—about theories of climate system. Ice-Albedo effect: ice and snow melt near the poles— replaces white snow with dark earth—cannot reflect sunrays—leads to more warming (works in reverse). Water vapor: warmer air can hold more water vapor— enhanced effects. (feedback, not a forcing!) Negative Feedback Clouds—water vapor results in CLOUDS, doesn’t cause ghg effects. “Adaptive Iris”—increased surface temperature lead to decreased cirrus cloud formation, resulting in “leakage” Maybe in the wrong side of the debate—more evidence that supports positive feedback loop. Warming is BAD One of the biggest impacts—along with heg, economy, and trade Outweighs the aff/turns the case. Conflicts/Nuclear war (Jurgen Scheffran)—through state failure/destabilization/failed states/insecurity/environmental degradation Artic conflicts—melting cycle—new energy competition—China, Canada, Russia, etc… Middle East/Africa Conflicts: resource competitions/governance—political radicalization. Hegemony—climate-changed induced weather events will wipe out our military installation (SOUTHCOM—Panama Canal) Warming is still BAD Other environmental effects— Deforestation—hot air results in dry soil—affects the forest. Coral Reefs—coral bleaching—release of symbiotic algae. Water resources—floods and droughts/lack of sanitation. Biodiversity—species extinction. Ocean Acidification—carbonic acid formation that increases the acidity of ocean—kills many marine organisms who can’t adjust to the acidity—(marine calcifier—can’t calsify without carbonate ions. Warming Bad—Impact Calculus Risk Calculus Probability—scientific consensus/research—objectively disputed Nuclear war doesn’t cause extinction Warming outweighs—only requires inaction/can be reversed. Warming is GOOD! ICE AGE High CO2 level prevents coming of the New Ice age Glaciation/Glacial Periods—an interval of time within an ice age marked by cold temperature We’re currently in INTERGLCIAL (Holocene epoch)— warmer periods between glaciation. Little Ice Age during 1550-1850—the baltic sea/caspian froze/harvests were wiped out—killing villages and human life. Ice Age Uniqueness Ice Age is coming NOW! Solar Cycle peak in 2022 is one of the weakest—NASA concluded—very big change of possibility of significant cooling (sets up for a good timeframe argument) Various temperature reading/climatic records—shows the warming is rather slowing, and cooling is likely to set. Also a defense to the aff’s uniqueness claim—warming is not happening now—only a risk of cooling. Ice Age Links Fossil Fuel Consumption/CO2 levels—extends the interglacial periods Double-Bind—either you solve warming quickly and sufficiently—proves the link to the DA, or you don’t solve the case. Inevitability—cooling is a cycle, but CO2 could delay the onset of ice age. Ice Age Impacts/Overview Pretty much accesses their warming bad impacts—the impact calculus is important. Timeframe—global cooling is faster climate change pattern. Magnitude—more people die under cooling—evidence calculating the effects on civilizations. Adoptability—warming has been expected, cooling hasn’t been—even if the transition is slow, the initial stage would make life hard to sustain. Ice Age Answers to popular affirmative arguments— Link turn—Warming causes ice age Thermohaline Circulation Only partial cooling in the North Atlantic—the negative internal link is GLOBAL cooling—means our link outweighs. Also takes out the warming advantage– warming causes cooling…..it offsets the warming impact. Goldilock/Equilibrium—ENOUGH CO2 Now Aff claims to remove all warming—1ac should provide sufficient links Also means case doesn’t solve