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Teaching the Physics of Climate Change Part 2 This ppt available on www.vicphysics.org Keith Burrows - Teachers AIP Education Committee - Teaching the Science of Climate Change PHYSCON Feb 2008 Human induced changes How can we understand it? – It’s all a matter of physics! IPCC SynRep Human induced changes How can we understand it? – Computer models are the only way of taking all this into account. – Use basic physics to calculate movement of heat, air, water, between small blocks of the atmosphere. – Here’s the basic physics: Human induced changes Climate models and their predictions. – These are just F = ma applied to moving fluids – This is conservation of mass – This governs the way heat flows between systems Human induced changes Climate models and their predictions. – The climate system is modelled as cells of air (or water) and the equations are applied to see how much air/heat flows between each pair of cells – This is repeated all around the Earth – The models have improved by making the cells smaller – They are now about 110 km square by 1 km high Human induced changes Climate models and their predictions. – The initial conditions have to be fed into the model and then it generates weather and climate patterns over hours, days, years or centuries! – Here is the result of one: Courtesy of Graeme Pearman Human induced changes Climate models and their predictions. – Models are tested to see if they generate past known climate patterns. – They are becoming more and more accurate. over hours, days (7 day forecasts), years or centuries! – Anthropogenic factors can be added/removed The science of climate change Human induced changes Climate models and their predictions. – The IPCC has just released the AR4 Synthesis Report which contains the most detailed and worrying predictions yet. Human induced changes Climate models and their predictions. – The IPCC has just released the AR4 Synthesis Report which contains the most detailed and worrying predictions yet. Human induced changes Climate models and their predictions. – The following diagrams are taken from the AR4 Synthesis Report Human induced changes There is one problem. The IPCC report is based on thoroughly reviewed work which is now several years old. Because of the processes it goes through it is very conservative. A number of developments have occurred since it was put together. Human induced changes The understanding of the various feedback effects has improved considerably This is a report given to the UK parliament June 2007. It outlines recent research showing that feedback effects are more worrying than previously thought. Climate science Overview – Earth’s energy balance – Interactions between EMR and the atmosphere – The effect of changes in the system Human induced changes – – – – The release of millions of years of stored energy Is the climate changing? How can we understand it? Climate models and their predictions. What can we do? – – – – Fossil fuels Reduce energy use Lower CO2 options Sustainable options The human response – Sceptics, deniers, avoiders – Change the light bulbs – The need for real change Education – That’s where we come in What can we do? Fossil fuels – We have to reduce them but we are extremely dependant on them What can we do? Fossil fuels – Cutting car use has to be a priority ABS What can we do? Fossil fuels – One of the dirtiest power stations in the world! What can we do? Reduce energy use – Better forms of transport What can we do? Reduce energy use – Better forms of transport – maybe these? What can we do? Reduce energy use – Better forms of transport – certainly these What can we do? Reduce energy use – Better forms of transport – definitely these What can we do? Reduce energy use – These are a problem! What can we do? Reduce energy use – This could be fun. Maybe we need to be a bit more relaxed about getting places! What can we do? Reduce energy use – Maybe video conferencing could reduce our need for ‘business’ travel? What can we do? Lower CO2 options – Sequestration of CO2 from power stations - ? – More efficient coal stations – Combined cycle gas generators What can we do? Lower CO2 options – Nuclear ? What can we do? Sustainable options 60 kilowatt (10 year ago) 1300 kilowatt now What can we do? Sustainable options We make per day about: 5 – 10 kWh Feed in to grid about 3 – 6 kWh Draw from grid about 2 – 4 kWh What can we do? Sustainable options Gas used for hot water since installation last October ago: NONE at all What can we do? Sustainable options What can we do? Sustainable options – Geothermal – ‘hot rocks’ – Potentially a very large resources – (get pic!) What can we do? Sustainable options – The ‘base load problem’? – We are no where near having that problem yet! Spot the renewables! What can we do? Sustainable options – base load? – Wide distribution of sources evens out the load – Linking them is not as difficult as we are told – Solar feeds power in at peak use time – Pumped storage is used now (Snowy, Tas) – Other storage options possible in future – HVDC What can we do? Sustainable options – HVDC – Energy carried in transmission line is area under the V² graph – V is limited by corona discharge to ~ 800 kV (hence 500 kV AC lines) – So energy carried by DC is twice that of same value peak voltage DC power AC power What can we do? Sustainable options – HVDC – High Voltage DC transmission – Basslink provides peak and stores excess What can we do? Sustainable options – HVDC – Making big difference to long distance transmission – Carries twice the power – Can go 1000’s of km (AC < 1000 km) What can we do? Sustainable options – HVDC – High power high voltage semiconductors have made the difference What can we do? Sustainable options – Area needed to collect ALL of Australia’s energy use. What can we do? What can we do? Sustainable options Where are the solar collectors? What can we do? Sustainable options This is in sunny Germany! What can we do? Sustainable options We have to get away from this... What can we do? Sustainable options ...to this Climate science Overview – Earth’s energy balance – Interactions between EMR and the atmosphere – The effect of changes in the system Human induced changes – – – – The release of millions of years of stored energy Is the climate changing? How can we understand it? Climate models and their predictions. What can we do? – – – – Fossil fuels Reduce energy use Lower CO2 options Sustainable options The human response – Sceptics, deniers, avoiders – Change the light bulbs – The need for real change Education – That’s where we come in The human response Sceptics, deniers, avoiders Bolt talks of “Alarmist of the Year Tim Flannery” flying around the world, then has a go at the UN Climate Change conference in Bali next month where 12000 people will fly in: “Hypocrisy is too small a word for so monstrous a circus. If it wasn't for the fact the planet actually hasn't warmed for nine years now, I'd cry.” The human response Sceptics, deniers, avoiders The human response Sceptics, deniers, avoiders – “We are in a cooling phase” Yes but… The human response Change the light bulbs – Yes, and turn down the thermostat, – but that is a very tiny start The human response – Is there something a bit odd here? The human response The human response The need for real change – It will cost – But many jobs could be created – It will cost much more if we don’t start now But remember them? Education That’s where we come in – The science leads to understanding – The need for optimism This ppt can be downloaded from www.vicphysics.org – Teachers - Feedback: - [email protected] - Resources (more at end): realclimate.org $1 Climate science Overview – Earth’s energy balance – Interactions between EMR and the atmosphere – The effect of changes in the system Human induced changes – – – – The release of millions of years of stored energy Is the climate changing? How can we understand it? Climate models and their predictions. What can we do? – – – – Fossil fuels Reduce energy use Lower CO2 options Sustainable options The human response – Sceptics, deniers, avoiders – Change the light bulbs – The need for real change Education – That’s where we come in 6.2.2 Role of scientists in the climate debate These stark conclusions about the threat posed by global climate change and implications for fossil fuel use are not yet appreciated by essential governing bodies, as evidenced by ongoing plans to build coal-fired power plants without CO2 capture and sequestration. In our view, there is an acute need for science to inform society about the costs of failure to address global warming, because of a fundamental difference between the threat posed by climate change and most prior global threats. In the nuclear standoff between the Soviet Union and United States, a crisis could be precipitated only by action of one of the parties. In contrast, the present threat to the planet and civilization, with the United States and China now the principal players (though, as Fig. 10 shows, Europe also has a large responsibility), requires only inaction in the face of clear scientific evidence of the danger. Thus scientists are faced with difficult choices between communication of scientific information to the public and focus on basic research, as there are inherent compromises in any specific balance. Former American Vice President Al Gore, at a plenary session of the December 2006 meeting of the American Geophysical Union, challenged earth scientists to become involved in informing the public about global climate change. The overwhelmingly positive audience reaction to his remarks provides hope that the large gap between scientific understanding and public knowledge about climate change may yet be closed. J. Hansen1,2, M. Sato2, R. Ruedy3, P. Kharecha2, A. Lacis1,4, R. Miller1,5, L. Nazarenko2, K. Lo3, G. A. Schmidt1,4, G. Russell1, I. Aleinov2, S. Bauer2, E. Baum6, B. Cairns5, V. Canuto1, M. Chandler2, Y. Cheng3, A. Cohen6, A. Del Genio1,4, G. Faluvegi2, E. Fleming7, A. Friend8, T. Hall1,5, C. Jackman7, J. Jonas2, M. Kelley8, N. Y. Kiang1, D. Koch2,9, G. Labow7, J. Lerner2, S. Menon10, T. Novakov10, V. Oinas3, Ja. Perlwitz5, Ju. Perlwitz2, D. Rind1,4, A. Romanou1,4, R. Schmunk3, D. Shindell1,4, P. Stone11, S. Sun1,11, D. Streets12, N. Tausnev3, D. Thresher4, N. Unger2, M. Yao3, and S. Zhang2 1NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA 2Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY, USA 3Sigma Space Partners LLC, New York, NY, USA 4Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA 5Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA 6Clean Air Task Force, Boston, MA, USA 7NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA 8Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Orme des Merisiers, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex, France 9Department of Geology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA 10Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA 11Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA 12Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, USA Received: 23 October 2006 – Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 5 December 2006 Revised: 29 March 2007 – Accepted: 15 April 2007 – Published: 7 May 2007 Resources for teachers - text: The Weather Makers – Tim Flannery – Good, popular Climate Change: Turning up the heat – Barry Pittock – highly qualified climate scientist Rough Guides: Climate Change – Sound, quite good description of the science Heat – George Monbiot – A sound journalistic approach to action Scientific American August 2007 – Good description of the scientific position Physics World Feb 2007 – Good description of the models (Also an article about a ‘sceptic’ – Lindzen) Physics World July 2007 – ‘Bright ideas’ about physics and the energy problem Also see Scientific American Jan 2008 for more on Solar Energy Resources for teachers - web: RealClimate.org – Good, run by very eminent climate scientists with answers to questions and sceptics. United Nations Environment Programme: – www.unep.org/geo/geo4/media/ – Download the Global Environment Outlook report Climate Code Red – David Spratt and Philip Sutton – Download (free) from – www.climatecodered.net