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Download Three century’s of land cover change impacts on streamflow
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150 years of land cover and climate change impacts on streamflow in the Puget Sound Basin, Washington Dennis P. Lettenmaier Lan Cuo Nathalie Voisin University of Washington Climate Impacts Group Climate and Water Forecasts for the 2009 Water Year October 6, 2009 Outline • • • • • Background Study area Methods Historical and projected results Conclusions Background • Surface hydrology studies streamflow, soil moisture, snow, evapotranspiration, etc. • These variables are related to our drinking water and vegetation water consumption. • Human activities are also affecting land cover, e.g., urbanization, deforestation, agriculture expansion. • IPCC (2007) stated that climate change is most likely due to human activities. • All these will affect surface hydrology by changing mechanisms like surface energy balance, surface infiltration capacity, snow rain partition, etc. Objective 1. How do land cover and climate change affect streamflow? Study area • • • Puget Sound Basin, Washington State, USA Temperate marine climate, precipitation season: October March Snow in highland. Not much in lowland Model • Distributed hydrology-soil-vegetation model (DHSVM) Interception Evapotranspiration Snow accumulation and melt Energy and radiation balance Saturation excess and infiltration excess runoff Unsaturated soil water movement Ground water recharge and discharge Nature-urban mixed hydrological process Forcing data: temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, incoming shortwave and longwave radiation and precipitation. Historical and current land cover in Puget Sound 2002 land cover Puget Sound Basin, Washington State Map adopted from Alberti et al. (2004) 1883 land cover Reconstructed historical land cover map (USGS 1883) using ArcGIS (ArcMap, ArcInfo) Climate data – Historical in Puget Sound (HCN stations) Tmin has stronger increasing trend than tmax at some locations Model calibration and validation Model calibration – urban basins in Puget Sound DHSVM calibration at hourly time step in urbanizing basins Land cover change effects on seasonal flow Highland Intermediate elevation Lowland Intermediate elevation Land cover change effects on peak flow Land cover change induced streamflow changes in Puget Sound Results of Mann-Kendall trend analysis on measurement and model residual of annual maximum flows and annual flows. Trends are in % over period of record, trend test is two-sided USGS gage IDs Start date End date Annual maximum flows Annual flow p Trend p Trend 12115000 1945-10-1 2006-9-30 - -402.3* - -45.5 12054000 1938-7-1 2006-9-30 <0.1 49.7 - 17.9 12056500 1924-10-1 2006-9-30 <0.05 36.7 <0.05 16.5 12133000 1922-10-1 1982-9-30 - 3.2 - -28.0 12161000 1928-10-1 1980-9-30 - 32.0 - -65.5 12120000 1955-10-1 2006-9-30 <0.01 163.1 - 17.9 Minimum detectable trend is greater than 500%. Seasonal streamflow change in Puget Sound Trend analysis results of measurement and model residual for seasonal flows. Trend test is two-sided; trends are in % over period of record. Fall (SON) Winter (DJF) Spring (MAM) Summer (JJA) Gages p Trend p Trend P Trend p Trend 12115000 - -53.6 - -21.1 - -45.9 <0.05 -65.7 12054000 - 54.0 <0.05 100.5 - 6.4 - -43.5 12056500 - 20.3 <0.05 30.7 - 10.7 - -9.6 12133000 - 23.4 - -45.7 <0.05 -87.9 - 77.6 12161000 - -96.6 - -12.4 - -76.7 - -25.5 12120000 <0.01 51.6 - 24.8 <0.1 23.7 <0.01 42.1 Urban site (12120000) has increasing trends consistent with model simulation, annual maximum flow increases, summer flow decreases. Historical temperature change effects 1915 condition 2006 condition Temperature change effects – Historical Historical land cover and climate change comparison Land change impacts dominates in lowland Lowland Intermediate elevation Highland Historical land cover and climate change comparison Projected land cover change in Puget Sound in 2027 and 2050 2027 map was from Hepinstall et al (2008). 2050 map was from the population and urban land cover regression for the lowland, and upland land was assumed to have no changes compared to 2027 map. Projected future climate change: GCMs, delta approach Models Institutions CGCM 3.1 t47 Canadian Center for Clim ate Modelli ng and Analysis Canada CGCM 3.1 t63 Canadian Center for Clim ate Modelli ng and Analysis Canada CNRM_CM3 Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques France ECHAM5 Max-Planck-Institut for Meteorology Germany HADCM Met Office, UK HAD GEM1 Hadle y Center Global Environment Model, v 1., UK IPSL_CM4 IPSL (Institute Pierre Simon Laplace), Paris, France BCCR Bjerknes Centre for Clim ate Research Norrway CCSM3 National Centre for Atmospheric Research USA CSIRO_3_5 Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Au stralia ECHO_G Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Germany Meteorological Research Institute of KMA, Korea Model and Data Groupe at M PI-M, Germany FGOALS_0_G Institute of Atmospheric Physics China GFDL_CM2_0 Geophy sical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory USA GFDL_CM2_1 Geophy sical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory USA GISS_AOM Goddard Institute for Space Studies USA GISS_ER Goddard Institute for Space Studies USA INMCM3_0 Institute for Numerical Mathematics Russia MIROC _3.2 National Institute for Environmental Studies Japan MIROC 3_2_hi National Institute for Environmental Studies Japan PCM1 National Centre for Atmospheric Research USA Run Simulation Periods 1 2001-2098 1 2001-2098 1 2001-2098 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2001-2098 2000-2098 2000-2098 2000-2098 2000-2098 2000-2098 1 1999-2098 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2000-2098 2001-2098 2001-2098 2001-2098 2004-2098 2001-2098 2001-2098 2001-2098 2000-2098 Future climate conditions A1B scenario Monthly Deltas = 2035-2065 vs. 1970-2000 Mon 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Prcp 1.13 1.09 1.11 1.14 1.17 0.94 0.74 0.79 0.95 1.15 1.19 1.17 T 2.53 2.31 2.12 2.03 2.10 2.32 3.13 3.09 2.55 2.05 2.00 2.49 8 9 10 Prcp (mm) 400 350 prcp_obs 300 prcp_fut 250 200 150 100 50 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Month 11 12 Tmax (C) 30 25 tmax_obs 20 tmax_fut 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Month 14 tmin_obs tmin_fut 12 Tmin (C) 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 -4 -6 Month 8 9 10 11 12 Projected climate change impacts on runoff and centroid Delta approach, 2050s climate vs. 1970 2000 climate, and 2002 land. Day starts from Oct. 1 to Sept.30 Projected land cover change impacts on runoff 2002 and 2050 land covers and 2050s climate Projected climate and land cover change impacts on mean annual total runoff <500m 500m - 1000m 1000m - 1500m >1500m Land 2002, 1970 2000 Climate (mm): a 822 890 595 453 Land 2002, 2050s Climate (mm): b 759 819 611 508 Land 2050, 2050s Climate (mm): c 914 1030 396 262 Climate Change (%) Compare a vs. b -8 -8 3 12 Land Change (%) Compare b vs. c 20 26 -35 -48 Conclusions • Upland basin mean flow sensitivity to land cover change is mostly as a result of changes in snow accumulation and ablation, and lower ET associated with reduced vegetation. • However, overall upland basin seasonal flows distribution, especially in the transient snow zone, are much more sensitive to temperature change effects – both to mean and peak flows – than to land cover change • Lowland basin mean flows are much more sensitive to land cover change than are upland basins, especially in the most urbanized basins. • Future runoff is projected to increase primarily in the upland basins (above 1000 m). Runoff centroids will move earlier in the year in the upland basins, especially with elevation above 1500 m. The higher the elevation, the larger the forward shift in centroid. • Projected land cover change impacts occur across all elevation zones. Land cover change will tend to increase runoff at lower elevations, but decrease runoff at higher elevations, mostly due to urbanization at low elevation, and forest regrowth at higher elevations. Land cover change does not affect runoff timing in a consistent way because land cover change impacts mostly are on evapotranspiration rather than snow.