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Download THE CLIMATE SEVERITY INDEX FOR CANADA
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Transcript
THE CLIMATE SEVERITY INDEX FOR CANADA Recalculated for recently observed climate change and a scenario of future climate The CSI of Phillips and Crowe • An arbitrary index, with a scale of 0 to 100, designed to measure the impact of climate on Canadians, with regard to: – human comfort – psychological well-being – climatic hazards to human life, health and well-being • For 146 Canadian locations CSI Ingredients • winter discomfort – January wind chill, winter length and severity • summer discomfort – humidex, summer length, warmth and dampness • psychological factors – darkness, sunshine, wet days, fog • hazards – wind, thunderstorms, blowing snow, snowfall • outdoor mobility – snowfall, visibility, freezing precipitation Original CSI Map of Canada The CSI and Observed Climate Change (1) • The original CSI was based on the climate for 1941-1970 (for 146 stations) • We now have climate data for 19531995 (for a few stations) • The recent climate has warmed and gotten wetter. What has that done to the CSI? Recalculation of the CSI • CSI recalculated for 15 stations using hourly data for – 1953-1970 (to compare with original) – 1953-1980 (to add more recent data) – 1961-1995 (most recent climate window) • Using only daily data (because scenarios of future climate do not provide hourly data) The CSI Recalculated Station Victoria Calgary Toronto Prince George Ottawa Whitehorse Fort McMurray Regina Fort Simpson Kapuskasing Yellowknife St John’s Iqaluit Baker Lake Churchill Original CSI 1940-1971 15 35 36 38 44 46 46 49 53 55 57 59 76 79 82 Recalculated 1953-1970 hourly daily 15 16 33 30 32 37 37 36 39 48 40 36 45 43 46 51 47 49 55 58 57 55 59 59 69 70 80 75 83 81 Recalculated 1953-1980 hourly daily 15 15 32 31 32 37 39 34 39 46 41 36 41 40 46 50 47 47 55 56 53 51 59 60 68 69 75 74 81 78 Recalculated 1961-1990 hourly daily 14 15 29 28 31 36 33 33 38 45 37 34 38 37 42 45 46 45 53 55 52 50 57 58 69 69 78 78 80 79 The CSI and Future Climate • CSI calculated on the model grid using model outputs from one run of the Canadian CGCM for one scenario of increasing GHGs and aerosols for – 1961-1995 (present climate) – 2010-2039 (the 2020s) – 2040-2069 (the 2050s) – 2070-2099 (the 2080s) CSI 1961-1995 CSI 2010-2039 CSI 2040-2059 CSI 2070-2099 A Scenario of Future CSI Station Victoria Calgary Toronto Prince George Ottawa Whitehorse Fort McMurray Regina Fort Simpson Kapuskasing Yellowknife St John’s Iqaluit Baker Lake Churchill Original CSI 15 35 36 38 44 46 46 49 53 55 57 59 76 79 82 2010-2039 14 29 31 35 39 44 43 47 51 52 54 55 72 76 76 2040-2069 12 26 27 29 37 41 40 44 49 49 50 54 71 74 73 2070-2099 15 24 25 24 37 39 41 42 47 46 47 47 64 69 66
