Download Status of the international climate change negotiations

Dr. Alina Averchenkova, International Consultant
Contact: [email protected]
 Scientific and political context for climate change
negotiations
 Overview of the negotiations : from Kyoto to Copenhagen
 Main issues in the post-2012 negotiations
 Outcomes of Copenhagen and outlook to Cancun
 UNFCCC secretariat in supporting the negotiations
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):
“Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since
the mid-twentieth century is very likely due to the observed increase in
anthropogenic (man-made) greenhouse gas concentrations"
Source: IPCC
Hurricane Katrina
2005
Melting glaciers
Source: IPCC AR4, Synthesis Report (shares are for 2004)
… Share in the current emissions
Australia 1.1%
Spain 1.1%
Brazil 1.1%
Poland 1.1%
Nigeria 0.4%
G8 nations about
45%
Indonesia 1.3%
Iran 1.5%
South Africa 1.5%
Mexico 1.5%
Korea 1.6%
USA 20.9%
India 4.6%
Latin America and
Carribean 4.8%
Russia 5.3%
EU 8.8%
Japan 4.3%
Germany 2.8%
China 17.3%
Canada 2.2%
Source: CDIAC
2007
UK 2%
France 1.3%
Italy 1.6%
… per capita emissions
USA
Canada
Australia
Russia Japan S. Africa Europe France World Latin Indonesia Nigeria Kenya
Germany
UK
Spain
Poland
S. Korea
Iran
China America Brazil
India
Mexico Caribbean
Source: CDIAC
2007
 Scientific and political context for climate change
negotiations
 Overview of the negotiations : from Kyoto to Copenhagen
 Main issues in the post-2012 negotiations
 Outcomes of Copenhagen and outlook to Cancun
 UNFCCC secretariat in supporting the negotiations
Science (IPCC)
1990, 1992: FAR
0.3
oC
↑
1995: SAR
Politics (UNFCCC)
1992:
Framework Convention on CC
1994:
Convention enters into force
1997:
2001: TAR
1.4-5.8oC ↑
Kyoto Protocol
2001:
Marrakesh Accords
2005:
force
Kyoto Protocol enters into
1.1-6.4oC ↑
2007:
Bali Road Map
2014: AR5
2009:
COP-15 Copenhagen
2007: AR4
* Kyoto Protocol “rules”
* Adaptation on table

“Common, but differentiated responsibilities”
Annex I
Annex II
Non-Annex I
Industrialised
countries &
Economies in
Transition (EITs)
Industrialised
countries
Developing
countries
• Adopt policies
and measures with
aim of reducing
GHG
emissions to 1990
levels
• Provide financial
resources to enable
developing countries
• No quantitative
obligations
• Promote technology
transfer to EITs and
non-Annex I Parties
• Least Developed
Countries given
special
consideration
• EITs have
“flexibility”
in commitments
 Adopted at the 1997 UNFCCC Conference of Parties 3
(COP3)
in Kyoto, Japan, on December 11, 1997
 Defines a target for GHG emission reductions for the
period between 2008 and 2012 of 5.2% compared to
1990 levels
 Established international market-based mechanisms to
meet the targets
 184 signatory states
Bali Road Map (2007) – Breakthrough in the mindset
• Shared understanding for the necessity of common
efforts, both by developed and developing countries
• Climate change is linked to economic growth and
sustainable development goals and needs
• Actions fall across a variety of economic sectors
• Deadline for negotiations by 2009: to ensure entry into
force of future regime by 2012
 Scientific and political context for climate change
negotiations
 Overview of the negotiations : from Kyoto to Copenhagen
 Main issues in the post-2012 negotiations
 Outcomes of Copenhagen and outlook to Cancun
 UNFCCC secretariat in supporting the negotiations
Building Blocks
Global Action
Sustainable Development Objectives
Finance
Mitigation
Mitigation
Adaptation
Adaptation
Technology
Bali Action Plan launched 2007
•4 building blocks
• REDD
• shared vision
•Mitigation actions from developing countries
•Mitigation commitments from developed countries
• new Subsidiary Body (AWG-LCA)
Kyoto Protocol track launched 2005
•New emission reduction targets, ranges (450 ppm?)
•Means to achieve targets (CDM, JI, ET, other?)
•
new Subsidiary Body (AWG-KP)
Shared vision: Overview
•
•
•
•
•
Provides context for the global action
Message of renewed political will
Outlines the key principles
Sets the objectives
Overall preamble to the agreement
Long-term global goal is most contentious aspect
•
•
•
•
Level of reductions to be achieved world-wide
No agreement on the year, scale, criteria or legal nature
Seen by some as defining burden-sharing
Provides key framework for mitigation action and
financial/technical support
Mitigation: Main issues
• Actions by developing countries: What form will they
take? How will they be measured, reported, verified?
• How to match mitigation actions by developing
countries with support from developed countries
• Level of ambition from developed countries: what they
are committing to, by when, and how
• Comparability of efforts
• Market-based mechanisms
Structure of negotiations on mitigation
 Mitigation action/commitments by developed countries
(KP&LCA)
 Developing country actions (NAMAs)
 Approaches to address emissions from deforestation (REDD+)
 Sectoral approaches
 Enhancing the cost-effectiveness, incl. role of markets
 Impacts of response measures
Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) is at the core
• Measurable
• Reportable
• Verifiable
MRV
Actions
Commitments
Support
 Level and type of action or commitment




National schedules, policies and measures
Economy-wide vs. sectoral goals;
Base year and gases to be covered
Absolute vs. intensity reduction
 Means of implementation
 Accounting for land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF)
 Use of market mechanisms and supplementarity limits
 Comparability of efforts
 Compliance system
 MRV
 Penalties

Nationally appropriate

In the context of sustainable development

Supported and enabled by:
◦ Technology, financing and capacity-building

In a measurable, reportable and verifiable manner (MRV)
Resulting in reduction in the growth of emissions
Adaptation
• Initial focus of negotiations from 1995 was mitigation
• Adaptation identified as issue at COP-7 in 2001
• Adaptation has to be the second leg of a Copenhagen
agreement, equal in importance to mitigation
• Financial needs related to adaptation are in the order of
hundred billions annually
• Recognition that designated financial mechanism will be
required for adaptation action
Key issues under Adaptation
1. What actions should be taken?

National planning, improving resilience

Building up/spreading knowledge base, i.e. vulnerability
assessments, etc.

Risk assessment, management and insurance

Implementation of adaptation programmes and projects
Key challenges
2. How to generate finance for adaptation
3. How to match local needs with support, access to
finance
4. Institutional frameworks for adaptation, governance
Technology
• Key for supporting mitigation and adaptation
• Developed countries to support technology transfer (TT) to
developing countries
• Removal of barriers to promoting TT including:
•
•
•
•
Financing
Intellectual property rights
Tariffs and non-tariffs
Capacity
• Ways to accelerate deployment, diffusion and transfer of
technologies
• Co-operation on research and development
• Effectiveness of tools & mechanisms for technology cooperation
Finance

Generation of new and additional, adequate,
predictable & sustainable funding, including:
Innovative sources for adaptation
Mobilization of public and private sector finance

Access to finance, including:
Improved access to existing financial resources
Positive incentives to implement mitigation, adaptation, CB& TT
Mechanisms for matching needs with support

Institutional arrangements for finance and investment
 Scientific and political context for climate change
negotiations
 Overview of the negotiations : from Kyoto to Copenhagen
 Main issues in the post-2012 negotiations
 Outcomes of Copenhagen and outlook to Cancun
 UNFCCC secretariat in supporting the negotiations
45000
participants
119 Heads of State
 No comprehensive UN agreement formally adopted on
the future framework
 Copenhagen Accord negotiated by 30 Heads of State,
representing 80% of GHGs of the world
 Political declaration
 ‘Noted’ by the UNFCCC process, no formal legal standing
 Countries invited to communicate their support /sign on
 31 January 2010- deadline for communicating targets and
mitigation actions
 A set of other decisions, including on CDM reforms
28
Target
to keep global temperature below 2oC
 Deep cuts in global GHGs with peaking asap, longer in developing
countries
AI
Parties commit to implement quantified economy-wide
emissions targets for 2020
 Kyoto Parties to strengthen implementation of the Protocol
 ER and Financing to be MRVed
Non-AI
Parties will implement mitigation actions
 Subject to domestic MRV and reporting through national
communications every 2 years
 Supported actions are subject to international MRV and
recording in the registry
Immediate
establishment of a REDD-plus mechanism
29
Collective
commitment by developed countries on finance:
 to provide USD 30 bln in 2012-2012
 to mobilize USD 100 bln/year by 2020  Variety of sources
 balanced allocation to mitigation and adaptation
 significant portion to go through Copenhagen Green Climate Fund
Copenhagen
High
Green Climate Fund to be established
Level Panel on finance to study sources of revenue
Technology
Mechanism to accelerate TD and TT is established
 Guided by country-driven approach
 To support action on adaptation and mitigation
Review
of implementation of the Accord by 2015, also in relation to
1.5C scenario
30
Australia
Belarus
Canada
Emission reduction Base year
Croatia
EU-27
Kazakhstan Japan
Liechtenstein New Zealand Norway Russian Fed. USA
-
5% up to -15 / 25% 2000
5 -10%
1990
17%
2005
5%
1990
20 / 30%
1990
15%
1992
25%
1990
20 / 30%
1990
10 - 20 %
1990
30 - 40%
1990
15 - 25%
1990
17%
2005
On 1990 Scale
- 3.89- 24.1%
+ 0.25%
N/A
- 3.67%
31
Emission reduction

Brazil
-36.1 – 38.9%

China
- 40 – 45% (carbon intensity)

India
Reference
- 25 – 30% (emissions intensity)
N/A
to 2005
to 2005

Indonesia
- 26 – 41%

Mexico
- 30%
below BAU

South Africa
- 34%
below BAU

South Korea
- 30%
below BAU

Maldives
Carbon neutrality
N/A
by 2020
32
Issue
Progress achieved in Copenhagen
Outstanding issues
Shared vision
-Political commitment
-Temperature goal
-Assessment of implementation in 2015
-Global goal for emission reduction
Mitigation by developed
countries
-Bottom up pledges by Annex I
-Basis for advancing negotiations
Mitigation actions by
developing countries
(NAMAs)
-Most political issues on NAMA resolved
-Guidance on the nature of actions
-Principles for MRV of NAMA
-Registry for matching NAMAs with support
-Pledges for NAMA made
-Joint target for Annex I countries
-Legal nature of targets/ compliance
-Dealing with AAU surpluses
-Types of actions eligible for support
-Procedure for matching NAMA with support
-MRV guidelines
-Eligibility for carbon crediting
-CDM & NAMAs
REDD-plus
-Establishment of REDD-plus mechanism
-COP text almost ready
-Principles for implementation
-Actions that host countries should undertake
-Commitment on finance
-Role for market finance
- Sub-national measures
-Governance arrangements
-Amount of financing to be allocated, although USD
3.5bln pledged as initial support over the next 2 years
Action on adaptation
-Principles for adaptation action
-Institutional arrangements
-List of priority activities
-Loss and damage
-Enhancement of regional cooperation
-Political commitment to launch framework and provide finance
Financing and its
governance
- Amount of finance to be provided
-The peaking year for global emissions
-Decision on institutional arrangements
- Suggestion on institutional arrangements (Copenhagen Green -Ensuring predictability/ generation of funds
-Share of financing for various focus areas
Fund and High-Level panel on sources)
Technology development -Most issues agreed
-Mechanism to be established
and transfer
-List of eligible activities
.
- IPRs
-Governance, incl. full mandate, composition and
modalities for the Technology Executive Committee
and the Climate Technology Centre

2-6 Aug: AWG-KP 13 & AWG-LCA 11
◦ Discussion of the new LCA text issued by the Chair
in June in Bonn
◦ In-session workshop on AI aggregate and individual
emission reductions

Tbc: AGW-KP 14 & AWG-LCA 12 in China

Several infornal high-level consultations

29 Nov-10 Dec: COP16 and CMP6 in Cancun
◦ Aim to adopt a set of COP&CMP decisions on
various elements of the future framework
 Scientific and political context for climate change
negotiations
 Overview of the negotiations : from Kyoto to Copenhagen
 Main issues in the post-2012 negotiations
 Outcomes of Copenhagen and outlook to Cancun
 UNFCCC secretariat in supporting the negotiations

Independent body of international civil servants

About 400 staff

Guided by the Bureau of the COP, and gets
specific requests from COP, CMP and the SBs

Every 2 years the COP adopts a budget, setting
out the main tasks and the funding needed

The budget is funded by contributions from
Parties based on the UN scale of assessment


Make practical arrangements for the negotiations
Monitor implementation of the commitments through
collection, analysis and review of data by Parties

Assist Parties in implementing their commitments

Substantive technical support to the negotiations

Maintain registries for the issuance of carbon credits
and for the assigned amounts of emissions of Parties

Support to the compliance regime of the KP

Coordinate with other international bodies

Preparation of official documents for the
negotiations between and during sessions

Coordination of in-depth reviews of Annex I
national communications

Compilation of GHG inventory data

Logistical issues
◦ Registration for the sessions
◦ Application for hosting a side event
◦ Participation in in-session and intersessional workshops

Submissions to the UNFCCC
◦ View on particular issue, in response to request for views
◦ GHG inventories, national communications, NAPAs, NAMAs, etc.
◦ Ad hoc expression of views

Participation in the negotiations during the sessions
◦ Getting the documents by the Chair during the informals
◦ Textual proposals during the sessions (if requested by the Chair)
◦ Oral discussions in case of strong position on particular issue

Official correspondence
◦ Registration through the focal points
◦ Official submissions by country through the national
focal point
To e-mail: [email protected]

During the sessions
◦ Logistics to the appropriate contact as shown in the
Daily programme
◦ Substantive issues related to the negotiations:
Responsible staff for the corresponding issue-see Daily
Programme, section on status of negotiations