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Multi-Faceted Services of New NWS Local Climate Products Marina Timofeyeva, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research and NOAA NWS Contributors: Robert Livezey, Michael Brewer, Annette Hollingshead and David Unger NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD Outline • Lessons of L3MTO implementation • New local user needs • What NWS can offer in response to these needs? • New local product: 3 Month Outlook of Local El Nino / La Nina Impacts (3MOLEI) with Rate of Local Climate Change • 3MOLEI local variables developmental work incorporates local climate specificities and user needs NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD L3MTO Implementation Lessons • Provides guidance for local users CD83 SLC Ogden Heber Pl. Grove Logan 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD 48 50 52 54 L3MTO Implementation Lessons • Links NOAA National Centers (CPC, NCDC) with Local Offices and local users Expertise in Metadata and Observations NOAA NESDIS NCDC Local Customer Services and Feedback NOAA NWS Regional And Local Offices Expertise in data QC, Homogenized Data NOAA NWS NCEP CPC Expertise in Monitoring and Outlook Products NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD L3MTO Implementation Lessons • Meets scientific requirements (RISAs) – Verification (ARC + Forecast Evaluation Tool) – Consistency in components’ interpretation NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD L3MTO Implementation Lessons • Meets scientific requirements (RISAs) – Verification (ARC + Forecast Evaluation Tool) – Consistency in components’ interpretation Help consists of: • Definitions and Interpretation Examples • Benefits and Limitations • Glossary NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD L3MTO Implementation Lessons • Serves user educational purposes: – Conveys visualization of probabilistic forecast – Supplements outlook with historical climate reference information NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD L3MTO Implementation Lessons • Contains user interaction component: 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD 7-months Jun-07 May-07 Apr-07 Mar-07 Feb-07 Jan-07 Dec-06 Nov-06 Oct-06 Sep-06 Total 465 Aug-06 Number of Responces – continuous customer feedback New Local Customer Needs • Climate Change: Information, Local impacts – Western Governors Association – California Water Resources – Alaska oil companies; wild life management • El Nino / La Nina: Information, Local impacts – Canaan Valley, West Virginia, 2004 Congressional Request – Water Resources Management – Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center (PEAC) NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD NWS Climate Change Guidance to Local Users • • • • NWS mission does not include projections of climate change for the future decades: maximum lead of NWS climate outlooks is 12.5 months for 3 month average temperature or total precipitation NWS local staff is able to provides different educational materials on local customers: – Fact sheets on Climate Change – Comprehensive summary on science of Global Climate Change – IPCC report facts NWS is committed to provide the best quality climate observation that can be used in local climate change assessments. Besides the raw data, available local and regional climate change products include: – Range of climate variability for climatology period and full records – Current rate of trends in climate variables – Impacts of other climate phenomena on trend adjusted climate variables Other NOAA line offices that provide information on climate change: – National Climatic Data Center – Earth System Research Laboratory – National Oceanographic Data Center – Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD Rate of Local T/P Change • Scientific justification for the product: – NCDC Data: local trend is preserved, while artificial step changes have been removed – Methodology peer reviewed (Livezey, et al., 2007) – Predictability is currently being tested NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD Rate of Local T/P Change • Although using a simple linear model, hinge reduces sampling error by: • Anchoring line on previous to 1976 observations (Hinge) • Expressed in variable units per decade or per 30 years: – 60 years range 48°F to 58°F, current rate of rise 1.7°F/10 years 60 55 50 45 1951 1961 1971 Data 1981 1991 Trend NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD 2001 Rate of Change Regional versus Local NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD 3 Month Outlook of Local El Nino / La Nina Impacts 1941,1958,1966, 1973,1983,1987, 1988,1992,1995, 1998 0.0 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.10 0.15 0.15 0.20 0.20 0.25 1941-2000 0.25 0.30 0.30 • Based on composite analysis • On trend adjusted data • With significance test to avoid sampling error -5 0 5 10 15 20 Eastern North Dakota Temperature (°F) 25 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Eastern North Dakota Temperature (°F) NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD 25 3 Month Outlook of Local El Nino / La Nina Impacts • Forecast alters historical probabilities to forecast for Nino 3.4SST (Higgins,et al., 2004) HistoricForecast alters historical probabilities to forecast Nino 3.4. for Nino Forecast 3.4 SST (Higgins, et al., 2004al Pro Nino3.4 Warm Neutral Cold Above 67% 33% 11% Near 13% 53% 28% Below 20% 14% 61% Term CPC CURRENT ENSO FORECAST: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/sstcon34.txt NINO 3.4 INITIAL TIME 5 200X PROJECTION FRACTION Lead Mo BELOW NORMAL ABOVE JFM 7.5 0.080 0.393 0.527 FORECAST USING CURRENT CPC Nino 3.4: station station Nino3.4 station Nino3.4 station Nino 3.4 Pcategory Pabove * P P * P P * P / event above near / event near below/ event below Example – ElNino with 7.5 month lead (forecast for JFM 2005): JFM,Miami Pbelow 0.08 * 0.61 0.393 * 0.14 0.527 * 0.2 21% JFM,Miami Pnear 0.08 * 0.28 0.393 * 0.52 0.527 * 0.13 30% JFM,Miami Pabove 0.08 * 0.11 0.393 * 0.33 0.527 * 0.67 49% NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD 3MOLEI Development NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD 3MOLEI Beyond T / P NWS Local Offices Studies AR Studies • Min/Max temperat ure and precipitati on PR Studies • Sea level change • Extreme precipitation events CR Studies • Number of tornado days • Number of significant tornadoes in the north central U.S. ER Studies • 3MOLEI methodology test SR Studies •Extreme events in the Florida WR Studies dry season and their • US SW river relationship to ENSO, PNA, flow AO and NAO exceedance •Major extratropical (ET) of flooding storms stage •Severe weather (Tornadoes) NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD•Excessive rainfall and flooding Summary • L3MTO implementation tested a new approach in developing local climate products • Needs of local users include information and impact on Climate Change and ENSO • 3MOLEI implementation will include auxiliary product: Rate of Local T/P Change – Prototype stage testing is expected in May 2008 – Experimental release is expected in September 2008 • Local staff has been trained to provide climate services on new local products • Local studies at WFO level raise local climate expertise and help to incorporate local user needs in identifying new climate variables for potential operational forecast products NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD