Download Welcome Prof. Dr. Atta-ur-Rahman, Minister for Science

Vulnerability of Pakistan
to Climate Change Hazards
Dr. M. Mohsin Iqbal
Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC)
Islamabad
“National Disaster Awareness Day -2009”
Convention Centre, Islamabad
08 October 2009
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Climate Change
“the greatest challenge facing the world at the
beginning of the century.”
World Economic Forum
Davos, Switzerland 2000
(www.weforum.org/)
“the most important long-term issue which we
face as a global community”.
Jack Straw,
British Foreign Secretary
(Daily NEWS 15 May 2004)
Climate Change: Some
Definitions
Weather:
The state of the atmosphere at a
given time and place, with respect
to the variables such as temperature,
moisture, pressure etc.
Climate:
Average weather. Statistical description
of mean weather conditions over a
period of several years, typically 2-3
decades.
Climate Change:
Climate Change in excess of natural
variability, attributable to human
activity.
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060212/0051
30%
343 W/m2
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Greenhouse Effect

The Greenhouse Effect plays a crucial role in
maintaining a life-sustaining environment on the Earth;

If there was no Greenhouse Effect, the average
temperature of the Earth would have been -18oC
(253°K) instead of the present 15oC;

Human activity is enhancing the natural Greenhouse
Effect by adding gases like carbon dioxide, methane,
nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, ozone, etc;

It is this Enhanced Greenhouse Effect which is
causing Global Warming and Climate Change.
CLIMATE CHANGE
Natural Climate
Variability
Climate Change
Natural + Anthropogenic
Global Warming
Increased Precipitation & its
Uneven Distribution
Melting of Glaciers & Snow
Sea level Rise
Increase in Frequency &
Intensity of Extreme Weather
Events
Anthropogenic Influences since
the Industrial revolution
Spiraling
Population
High pace of
Industrialization
IMPACTS
Uncertainty in Water
Availability
Decrease in Crop
Yields
Increasing use of
Fossil Fuels in
Industry &
Transport
Newer perspective for sources
of energy
Deforestation for
Agriculture and
Urbanization
Increased
Health Risks
Loss of Biodiversity
Some Major Findings of IPCC
Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), 2007
•
0.6 0 C increase in average global temperature during the
last century (11 of last 12 years being warmest since 1850, with 1998 being on top.)
•
Increase by 1.1-6.4 0 C projected over the 21st Century, with
most likely range being 1.8-4.0 0 C ;
•
Associated to this will be large changes (both, increases and
decreases) of temperature and precipitation in different world
regions;
•
Frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events (severe
cyclonic storms, floods, droughts etc.) will increase
considerably;
•
•
Large scale melting of mountain glaciers and polar ice caps,
particularly the Arctic;
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Substantial rise in sea level.
Global Response
•
Climate Change is being addressed by several
national research programs in all developed
countries:
•
A number of developing countries are also actively
pursuing climate change research, e.g.
•
In South Asia region, India has some 20 establishments
and Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka are also engaged
in CC research;
•
China has a large number of establishments engaged in
CC research.
Climate Change Science Studies
in Pakistan

2001: Establishment of a multi-disciplinary effort for Climate
Change research proposed by Dr. Ishfaq Ahmad, Special
Advisor to the Prime Minister;

May 2002: Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC)
established with seed money provided by Ministry of Sc &
Tech; GCISC now being supported by Planning Commission.

January 2005: Prime Minister’s Committee on Climate
Change established, with GCISC as its Secretariat.

Dec., 2006 : GCISC attached to National Centre for Physics
as an autonomous organization.

Oct., 2008: Planning Commission established a Task Force
on Climate Change with GCISC as its Secretariat.
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Vulnerability of Pakistan
Pakistan, like other countries in South Asia, is
most vulnerable to Climate Change, because :
•
A large part of its economy is based on agriculture
which is climate sensitive;
•
It has low technological and scientific base and
have limited access to knowledge;
•
It has low capacity to adapt to changes resulting
from CC;
•
It lacks financial and institutional capacity.
Challenges of Climate Change

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Water Challenge
Food Security challenge
Climate Extreme Events Hazards
Impacts on other Ecosystems
Vulnerability of Water Resources to
Climate Change

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Increased variability of Monsoon
More rapid recession of HKH Glaciers
threatening IRS Flows
Shortage of irrigation water for agriculture,
water for industrial and domestic sectors.
Increased risks of floods and droughts
Melting of Glaciers in Pakistan

Glaciers are life line of Pakistani rivers. The total water
storage in glaciers in Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is 2,200 MAF

Melt water from these Glaciers contributes more than 60%
to the flows from UIB.

International Commission for Snow and Ice (ICSI) “
(1999): Glaciers in Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part
of the world and, if the present rate continue, the likelihood of them
disappearing by the year 2035 is very high”.

World Bank (2006):
Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years causing
increase of Indus River flows. Then the glacier reservoirs will be empty,
resulting in decrease of flows by up to 30% to 40% over the subsequent
fifty years.
Projected Changes in HKH Glaciers
IPCC AR4 (2007):
Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding within next
two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the
glaciers recede.
Hewitt (2005):
reported widespread evidence of glacier expansion in the late 1990s in the
Central Karakoram, in contrast to a worldwide decline of mountain glaciers.

These conflicting findings make the impact of climate change
on Karakoram glaciers and Indus River flows very uncertain.
Qori Kalis Glacier, Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru,
1978
2002
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1875
2004
The Pasterze, Austria's longest glacier, was about 2 kilometers longer in the 19th C. but
is now completely out of sight from this overlook on the Grossglockner High Road.
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Mount Kiliminjaro, Kenya, Africa
2000
1993
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Changes in Gangotri Glacier,
Indian Himalaya
This composite ASTER image shows how the Gangotri Glacier terminus has
retracted since 1780. Contour lines are approximate. (Image by Jesse Allen, Earth
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Observatory; based on data provided by the ASTER Science Team; glacier retreat
boundaries courtesy the La2020nd Processes Distributed Active Archive Center)
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1989-10-09
2000-10-31
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060212/0029
1992-10-15
2000-10-29
GLOFS in Pakistan
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As glaciers retreat, glacial lakes form behind
moraine or ice 'dams’. These can breach
anytime leading to floods known as Glacial Lake
Outburst Floods (GLOFs) which can destroy:
property,
farms,
socio-economic infrastructure
and livelihood of mountain people
and downstream communities.
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GLOF-induced damages at Chut Ghusth, Ghulkin
Web Source: http://pamirtimes.net/2008/06/page/3/
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Temporal Change Detection In Biafo Glacier, Karakoram, Pakistan.
Landsat
image;Resolutio
n 30m
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3d view of Main Biafo Glacier (Shigar River Basin) with overlaid digitized boundary of the glacier
showing the changes in the main glacier stream.
Glacier Area Currently under Study at GCISC
Hunza River Basin
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Retreat of the Helheim Glacier Greenland
2005
2003
2001
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The Water Challenge:
Conclusion
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There is an urgent need to
Assess Pakistan’s glaciers, future water
resources and storage requirements in
the wake of climate change threat
Take appropriate ameliorative measures
well in time to avoid calamites.
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Food Security Challenge
Agriculture Systems in Pakistan

Irrigated Agriculture
Consumes >90% of fresh water resources and contributes >80% to
national production

Rained and Dryland Agriculture
Contributes <30% to national production.
Vulnerability of Agriculture to
Climate Change

Irrigated areas: Vulnerable to irrigation water shortage due
to glacier melt in the wake of climate change
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Semi-arid and Arid areas: Vulnerable to changes in
quantity, intensity and frequency of rainfalls.
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Both of the irrigated and dry areas: vulnerable
to climate extreme events of floods, droughts, heat waves, cold
waves, dust storms, hail storms, sea storms, etc
Impacts of Climate Change on Crops
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Shortening of growing season length
Loss in yield
Heat stress at sensitive growth stages,
e.g. flowering, grain initiation stages
Increased pest/disease incidence
Increased crop water requirements
Effect of increase in temperature on Wheat yields in different
agro-climatic zones of Pakistan
4500
Northern
Mountainous
(Humid)
Wheat Yield (kg/ha)
4000
Northern SubMountainous
(Sub-humid)
3500
3000
Southern Plains
(Semi arid)
2500
Southern Plains
(Arid)
2000
0
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2
3
Temperature Change ( oC)
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Climate Extreme Events
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Flash floods,
Droughts,
Heavy precipitation events,
Hailstorms,
Dust storms,
Cyclones,
Heat /Cold waves
Climate Extreme Events in Pakistan
2009
Karachi received 205 mm of rain at Masroor Airbase and 144 mm at
Airport during July. Previous record for rainfall at Karachi is 208 mm
occurred in 1977
2007
Record heat wave gripped Pakistan during June, 2007. The temperature
of 48 C was recorded on 9th June, 2007 at Lahore, a record repeated after
78 years. Earlier it was recorded on 8th June, 1929
2007
Two super cyclones namely Gonu of Cat-5 and Yemyin of Cat-1
developed in the Arabian Sea during June, 2007 and hit Makran
coast and adjoining countries. The history of Arabian Sea at least during
the previous century finds no such events occurring twice in a month
2006
In Pakistan, monsoon-related flooding was blamed for more than 185
deaths from late July through mid-August 2006 (AFP). In neighboring
eastern Afghanistan, heavy rainfall generated flooding that claimed
at
least 35 lives (Associated Press)
2005
Heavy rain caused flooding in parts of Pakistan and Afghanistan in
March. The flooding hit Balochistan Province very adversely. There
were more than 30 fatalities in southwestern Pakistan
Recent Climate Extremes in Pakistan
2005
During June, unusually warm temperatures in the mountainous
areas of northern Pakistan accelerated snowmelt and brought
extensive flooding along the Kabul, Swat, Kunar and Chitral rivers
2005
Heavy rains in the south and snow in the north as well as Kashmir
region triggered flooding and avalanches, killing at least 486
people during second week of February
2004
Unusual late-season heavy snow fell across the Kashmir region along
the border of India and Pakistan during early May. Some 20,000
nomads trapped in the Himalayan areas of Kashmir.
2003
Heavy rain and snow produced flooding in mid February was
responsible for more than 60 deaths in Balochistan province. Flash
flooding washed away parts of roads and highways.
At least one million people were affected by seasonal monsoon rains
in southern Pakistan. Heavy rains caused 162 deaths with 153 fatalities
in the Sindh province
2003
Continued:
2003
During early June, a heat wave caused maximum temperature reached
52°C at Jacobabad on the 5th; normal highs in early June are near
44°C
2001
621 mm rainfall in Islamabad during 10 hours in the month of July
1999-2001
History’s worst drought gripped Pakistan and parts of
surrounding countries
Buffaloes on Roof Top
(once a joke, now a reality)
Urban Flooding in Lai Nullah
( 23rd July 2001)
Flood Stranded People on the Highway
Rescuing the drowning fellows
Impacts on other Ecosystems
Land Degradation in Pakistan
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Water Erosion
Wind Erosion
Salinity and Sodicity
Waterlogging
Low organic matter (<1%)
: 17%
: 8%
: 9%
: 5%
: 96%
Impacts on Land degradation
Land degradation enhanced by climate
change due to
 Wind and water erosion, as a result of low
and high rainfall
 Water-logging and Salinity, as a result of
greater evaporation from land surface.
Vulnerability of Mountain Region
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Enhanced de-glaciation
Loss of biodiversity
Overall increasing trend in rainfall leading
to surface runoff, soil erosion, landslides,
sedimentation load downstream
Positive impact on yield of wheat
Prospects of two crops a year
Coastal Zones
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Inundation of coastal areas will pose risk to Mangrove
forests, coral reefs breeding ground of fish and
infrastructure
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Upstream intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta will
pose risk to agriculture, fresh drinking water and
livelihood of dependant communities, thousands of
hectares of fertile soil will become saline
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Even with drastic reductions in greenhouse gas
emissions, sea level will continue to rise for centuries
beyond 2100 because of the long response time of the
global ocean system.
Coping with the Climate Change
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Assessment of vulnerability, risk and possible impacts of
vulnerable areas and communities
Preparedness for disaster and risk management
Development of early warning system
Reducing the vulnerability to livelihoods through infrastructural changes
Developing new and innovative farm production practices,
including new crop varieties and irrigation techniques
Empowering communities and local stakeholders for their
active participation in vulnerability assessment and
implementation of adaptation
Mainstreaming climate change into development planning at
all scales, levels and sectors
Conclusions
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Climate change will lead to various disasters/hazards such as:
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF), Landslides, Avalanches,
Floods, Droughts and Cyclones.
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Climate Change will also adversely affect various sectors of
Pakistan’s economy.
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Realistic assessment of the impacts and implementation of
appropriate adaptation measures well in time is imperative.
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Preparedness for disaster/ risk management and development
of early warning system will contribute to safeguarding the
vulnerable communities/sectors.
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Thank you