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Blue Growth seminar Brussels: 27 April 2016 Consequences of climate change and ocean acidification for the ocean ecosystem Phil Williamson UK Natural Environment Research Council & University of East Anglia Consequences of climate change and ocean acidification for the ocean ecosystem Do climate change and ocean acidification compromise the Blue Growth agenda? Consequences of climate change and ocean acidification for the ocean ecosystem Do climate change and ocean acidification compromise the Blue Growth agenda? Maybe. Much depends on the success of the Paris Agreement Consequences of climate change and ocean acidification for the ocean ecosystem Do climate change and ocean acidification compromise the Blue Growth agenda? Maybe. Much depends on the success of the Paris Agreement "A business-as-usual scenario…will likely increase global mean temperature by 3⁰C by 2100, with a 65 cm rise in global sea level" Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment Consequences of climate change and ocean acidification for the ocean ecosystem Do climate change and ocean acidification compromise the Blue Growth agenda? Maybe. Much depends on the success of the Paris Agreement "A business-as-usual scenario…will likely increase global mean temperature by 3⁰C by 2100, with a 65 cm rise in global sea level" Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment 1990 Emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases Ocean physics Warming Mixing Sea-level rise Ocean chemistry pH Oxygen Ocean biology Fisheries impacts on ocean services affecting human society Ocean physics Increasing global ocean heat content 1022 J Declining strength of North Atlantic circulation Srokosc & Bryden (2015) Levitus et al (2012) 93% of extra heat absorbed by the ocean Ocean chemistry CO2 in atmosphere (ppm) increased CO2 in the atmosphere… Hawaii South Pole IPCC (2013) WG I, Summary for Policymakers, www.ipcc.ch Peters et al (2012) The challenge to keep global warming below 2⁰C. Nature Climate Change (online 2 Dec) Ocean chemistry CO2 in upper ocean (μatm) CO2 in atmosphere (ppm) … and decreases upper ocean pH (increases H+) 8.12 pH in Atlantic Ocean pH in Pacific Ocean 8.09 8.06 pH IPCC (2013) WG I, Summary for Policymakers, www.ipcc.ch 28% of extra CO2 absorbed by the ocean Peters et al (2012) The challenge to keep global warming below 2⁰C. Nature Climate Change (online 2 Dec) Ocean chemistry CO2 in upper ocean (μatm) CO2 in atmosphere (ppm) how will that change in future? ? 8.12 pH in Atlantic Ocean pH in Pacific Ocean 8.09 8.06 IPCC (2013) WG I, Summary for Policymakers, www.ipcc.ch pH ? 28% of extra CO2 absorbed by the ocean Peters et al (2012) The challenge to keep global warming below 2⁰C. Nature Climate Change (online 2 Dec) Future climate impacts on the ocean will depend on future emissions of greenhouse gases Where we were heading for: “business as usual” 2015 estimate ○ National commitments (INDCs)* made at Paris 1990 emissions net negative emissions Where we would like to be (= Paris Agreement) Paris Agreement : temperature limit of "well below 2°C" – requiring net zero emissions of greenhouse gases before 2100 *Indicative Nationally Determined Contributions Ocean biology Combined effect of warming, ocean acidification and sea level rise on marine organisms and ecosystems for low and high ('businessas-usual') emission scenarios Gattuso et al. (2015) Ocean biology Direct effects of warming and ocean acidification Impacts on organisms Indirect effects on: Ecosystems Ecosystem services Community processes (positive & negative) Coastal protection Biogeochemical processes Changes in physics and chemistry CO2 increase Food web & biodiversity changes Climate processes also interactions with other stressors H u m a n s o c i e t y Climate-related research needed for Blue Growth 1. Marine renewables for climate mitigation 2. Marine observations using advanced technologies for interdisciplinary monitoring 3. Multi-stressor studies to improve knowledge of combined impacts of 'prevailing conditions' in context of Good Environmental Status image: Glynn Gorick and IOC Thank you for your attention! [email protected] image: Glynn Gorick and IOC