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Transcript
Blue Growth seminar
Brussels: 27 April 2016
Consequences of climate change and ocean
acidification for the ocean ecosystem
Phil Williamson
UK Natural Environment Research Council
& University of East Anglia
Consequences of climate change and ocean
acidification for the ocean ecosystem
Do climate change and ocean
acidification compromise the
Blue Growth agenda?
Consequences of climate change and ocean
acidification for the ocean ecosystem
Do climate change and ocean
acidification compromise the
Blue Growth agenda?
Maybe. Much depends on the
success of the Paris Agreement
Consequences of climate change and ocean
acidification for the ocean ecosystem
Do climate change and ocean
acidification compromise the
Blue Growth agenda?
Maybe. Much depends on the
success of the Paris Agreement
"A business-as-usual scenario…will likely increase global mean
temperature by 3⁰C by 2100, with a 65 cm rise in global sea level"
Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment
Consequences of climate change and ocean
acidification for the ocean ecosystem
Do climate change and ocean
acidification compromise the
Blue Growth agenda?
Maybe. Much depends on the
success of the Paris Agreement
"A business-as-usual scenario…will likely increase global mean
temperature by 3⁰C by 2100, with a 65 cm rise in global sea level"
Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment
1990
Emissions of CO2 and other
greenhouse gases
Ocean physics
Warming
Mixing
Sea-level rise
Ocean chemistry
pH
Oxygen
Ocean biology
Fisheries
impacts on ocean services
affecting human society
Ocean physics
Increasing global
ocean heat content
1022 J
Declining
strength of North
Atlantic circulation
Srokosc
& Bryden
(2015)
Levitus et al (2012)
93% of extra
heat absorbed
by the ocean
Ocean chemistry
CO2 in atmosphere (ppm)
increased CO2 in the atmosphere…
Hawaii
South Pole
IPCC (2013) WG I, Summary for Policymakers, www.ipcc.ch
Peters et al (2012) The challenge to keep global warming below 2⁰C. Nature Climate Change (online 2 Dec)
Ocean chemistry
CO2 in upper ocean (μatm)
CO2 in atmosphere (ppm)
… and decreases upper ocean pH (increases H+)
8.12
pH in Atlantic Ocean
pH in Pacific Ocean
8.09
8.06
pH
IPCC (2013) WG I, Summary for Policymakers, www.ipcc.ch
28% of extra CO2
absorbed by the ocean
Peters et al (2012) The challenge to keep global warming below 2⁰C. Nature Climate Change (online 2 Dec)
Ocean chemistry
CO2 in upper ocean (μatm)
CO2 in atmosphere (ppm)
how will that change in future?
?
8.12
pH in Atlantic Ocean
pH in Pacific Ocean
8.09
8.06
IPCC (2013) WG I, Summary for Policymakers, www.ipcc.ch
pH
?
28% of extra CO2
absorbed by the ocean
Peters et al (2012) The challenge to keep global warming below 2⁰C. Nature Climate Change (online 2 Dec)
Future climate impacts on the ocean will depend
on future emissions of greenhouse gases
Where we were heading
for: “business as usual”
2015 estimate
○
National commitments
(INDCs)* made at Paris
1990 emissions
net negative emissions
Where we would like to
be (= Paris Agreement)
Paris Agreement : temperature limit of "well below 2°C"
– requiring net zero emissions of greenhouse gases before 2100
*Indicative Nationally Determined Contributions
Ocean biology
Combined effect of
warming, ocean
acidification and sea
level rise on marine
organisms and
ecosystems for low
and high ('businessas-usual') emission
scenarios
Gattuso et al. (2015)
Ocean biology
Direct effects of warming
and ocean acidification
Impacts on
organisms
Indirect effects on:
Ecosystems
Ecosystem services
Community
processes
(positive &
negative)
Coastal
protection
Biogeochemical
processes
Changes in physics
and chemistry
CO2 increase
Food web &
biodiversity
changes
Climate
processes
also interactions with other stressors
H
u
m
a
n
s
o
c
i
e
t
y
Climate-related research
needed for Blue Growth
1. Marine renewables for climate mitigation
2. Marine observations using advanced
technologies for interdisciplinary monitoring
3. Multi-stressor studies to improve knowledge
of combined impacts of 'prevailing conditions' in
context of Good Environmental Status
image:
Glynn Gorick and IOC
Thank you for your attention!
[email protected]
image:
Glynn Gorick and IOC