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Integrating Frameworks for Energy and Climate Policy Analysis. Rudolf B. HUSAR, Director, Center for Air Pollution Impact and Trend Analysis, Washington University, St. Louis, MO, USA Dingli SHEN, Director, Center for American Studies Fudan University, Shanghai, China Shanghai Forum 2010 Shanghai, China, May 30, 31 Human-Induced Climate Change: Connectedness and Interactions along Multiple Dimensions Spatial: There is ONE atmosphere that circulates the Earth every two weeks. All countries are connected through the atmospheric ‘conveyer belt’. Temporal: CO2 resides in the atmosphere for hundreds of years. Today’s emissions impact future generations but they are not present to participate in the in the dialog or bidding. Analysis Framework I: Biogeochemical & Energy Flow Loop Physical Causes of Climate Change Climate System: Atmosphere, Ocean, Land, Ice Multiple Drivers of Global Warming Change of Drivers due to Humans Some heating other cooling the Earth If human-induced heating exceeds the cooling, the atmosphere will be warming. IPCC Analysis Framework II: Social-Causes of Climate Change CO2 Emiss. = (Pop) (GDP/Pers) (Energy/GDP) (CO2/Energy) Carbon Intensity of Energy Mix Energy Intensity of Economy Economic Development Total Population Human-induced CO2 emissions are driven by at least three distinct factors Each represents a different aspect of human-nature interaction Example: Drivers of C Emission Change, 1990-2000 For sustainability, positive and negative drivers have to be in balance Each country has different set and always changing carbon drivers Data from World Bank Climate Policy CO2 Emiss. = (Pop) (GDP/Pers) (Energy/GDP) (CO2/Energy) Climate/Carbon Policy Envir.;“Green” Policy = Energy Policy Economic Policy Population Policy + + + “Climate policy” is the combined outcome of policies for Population, Economy, Energy and Environment Analysis Framework III: Sensory-Motor Loop Human activities exert pressures, e.g burning fossil fuels, that alter the state of environment. The impaired environmental state, elicits responses, such as regulations in a feedback loop Assessment turns information into actionable knowledge for decisions Monitoring collects multisensory Earth Observations Monitoring (Sensing) Set Goals Assessment Compare to Goals, Plan Reductions Track Progress Controls (Motor-Actions) All living organisms use this type of sensory-motor feedback to maintain their existence. Monitoring, Assessment and Controls are the necessary steps for sustainable development. International Collaboration Opportunity: Global Observing System of Systems (GEOSS) Internet-based data sharing infrastructure for Earth Observations Voluntary International Program, 80+ countries, ministerial level China is one of four Co-Chairs of GEOSS Any Dataset Serves Many Communities Any Problem Requires Many Datasets Conclusion Lack of understanding is key impediment to progress in Climate Change and its Mitigation. Opportunities for Collaboration • Pooling of intellectual resources on Climate Change • Integrated Population, Economic, Energy Systems Analysis • Collaboration in Earth System monitoring & assessment • Global Observing System of Systems (GEOSS)