Download Climate change facts and statistics in Iran Mohammad Reza

Climate change facts and statistics in Iran
Mohammad Reza Mansouri Daneshvar
Department of Geography and Natural Hazards, Research Institute of Shakhes Pajouh,
Isfahan, Iran
E-mail: [email protected]/ [email protected]
Abstract:
Iran as a main country of Middle East is under intensive climate change impacts.
In vice versa, high-level contribution of Iran to GHGs emissions depends on a
major product of oil, largest reserves of gas and quick urbanization. In this
manuscript, the statistical evidences on climate change were investigated in
global, regional and national scales. For this purpose, the main increasing of
annual temperature and GHGs emissions were considered. Then the
governmental agreements toward the many international adoptions and
conventions on climate change were reviewed from Rio 1992 to NY 2016. It
seems that the further technological research and development on exploration the
novel methods in renewable energy applications and mitigation of GHGs
emissions will be necessary in order to future adaptations.
Keywords: Climate change, Greenhouse Gas (GHG), IPCC, Iran
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Introduction
According to the synthesis report (SYR) of climate change in 2014, as the final
part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s Fifth
Assessment Report (AR5), Warming observation of the climate system is
unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are
unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have
warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen
(IPCC 2014). According to the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index prepared
by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the globally
averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a
linear trend show a warming of nearly 0.85 °C over the period 1850 to 2015
(Figure 1). This figure illustrates the change in global surface temperature
relative to 1951-1980 average temperatures. The 10 warmest years in the 134year record all have occurred since 2000, with the exception of 1998. The year
2015 ranks as the warmest on record (NASA 2015).
For climatic projection relative to 1850–1900, global surface temperature change
for the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) is projected to likely exceed 1.5°C
for RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. In many mid-latitude and subtropical dry
regions, mean precipitation will likely decrease, while in many mid-latitude wet
regions, mean precipitation will likely increase under the RCP8.5 scenario.
There are prospects from climate model simulations that a gradually global
warming will be accompanied by changes in the variability and frequency of
climate extremes. Official reports of the IPCC have made increasingly strong
statements regarding the human influence on the global climate (IPCC 2007).
According to the synthesis report of climate change in 2014, as the final part of
the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), changes in many extreme weather
and climate events have been observed since about 1950. Some of these changes
have been linked to human influences, including a decrease in cold temperature
extremes, an increase in warm temperature extremes, an increase in extreme high
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sea levels and an increase in the number of heavy precipitation events in a
number of regions (IPCC 2014).
IPCC SYR-AR5 reveals that the anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions since the pre-industrial era have driven large increases in the
atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous
oxide (N2O). Between 1750 and 2011, cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions
to the atmosphere were 2040 ± 310 GtCO2 (IPCC, 2014). According to The
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) emissions time series
through 2013, the global fossil-fuel carbon emission estimate, 9776 million
metric tons of carbon, represents an all-time high and a 1.1% increase over 2012
emissions (CDIAC 2013).
According to aforementioned realities, the present study aims to explore the facts
and statistics of climate change in Iran due to reveal the importance role of
international participation for national mitigation and adaptation strategies. With
a total area of 1.648 million km2, Iran locates between 45°–63° East and 25°–40°
North in the east of the Middle East (Figure 2). Climatic feature of Iran has
mostly an arid and semi–arid character in the mid-latitudes.
Methodology
For gathering the statistical data, some global and national official reports were
used in this study e.g., IPCC (2007, 2012, 2014) and NCCOI (2010, 2014).
Furthermore, several web pages were considered to access the climate change
monitoring time series e.g., NASA (2015) and CDIAC (2013) remotely sensed
data.
Discussion
Global Warming facts in Iran
In this regard, the Middle East region is considered one of the most vulnerable
regions to climate change impacts, because of its water scarcity as the highest in
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the world (Elasha 2010). The IPCC report estimates an increase in temperature in
Middle East of up to 2°C in the next 15-20 years, and over 4°C for the end of the
century. By the end of this century, this region is projected to experience an
increase of 3°C to 5°C in mean temperatures and a 20% decline in precipitation
(IPCC 2007). Due to lower precipitation, water run-off is projected to drop by
20% to 30% in most of Middle East by 2050 (Elasha 2010). Based on the
national climate change project, Iran is projected to experience an increase of
nearly 2.6°C in mean temperatures and a 35% decline in precipitation (NCCOI
2014). Hence, the future climate of Iran is mainly accordant in the severe climate
change of Middle East.
According to the IPCC (2012) for the end of the 21th century versus the end of
the 20th century, the temperature extremes and projected the extreme indices in
the Middle East and Iran indicate an increase in warm days (warm nights) and a
decrease in cold days (cold nights). There are many studies on temperature
extremes in Iran with respect to global warming conclude that the central and
southern part of Iran are more sensitive to climate warming characterized by a
significant increasing trend (~30%) of hot extremes and an increasing trend of
minimum temperature (Darand et al. 2015). Therefore, many reports exist on the
spatial and temporal variations of precipitation in Iran with respect to climate
change that observe a reliable decline in annual rainfall (~30%) especially in
eastern parts (Nazaripour and Mansouri Daneshvar 2014).
Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Iran
The growth of CO2 emissions in the Middle East was the third largest in the
world in 1990-2004 and more than 3 times faster than the world’s average
(Elasha 2010). According to CDIAC (2013) CO2 global monitoring data, three
Middle Eastern countries are among the five highest national per capita CO2
emission rates in the world for 2013 that includes Qatar (11.03 metric tons of
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carbon per person), Kuwait (7.43), and Bahrain (6.46). Therefore, three major
fuel consumers discharge 65% of the region's fossil-fuel CO2 in 2013 includes
Iran, (168.25 million metric tons of carbon), Saudi Arabia, (147.65 million
metric tons of carbon) and Turkey (88.21 million metric tons of carbon). In
ranking of the world's countries by 2013 total CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel
burning, cement production, and gas flaring, Iran has total CO2 emissions nearly
to 168,251 in thousand metric tons of carbon (616,741 million tons of CO2) as
7th in the world (Figure 3). However, Iran has national per capita CO2 emission
equal 2.18 as 47th in the world. The GHGs emission inventory was prepared for
the years 2000 and 2010 based on the Iran’s national climate change project,
which has been published by National Climate Change Office of Iran (NCCOI
2010, 2014). The summary of direct and indirect GHGs inventory in Iran for
both 2000 and 2010 are shown in Tables 1 and 2, respectively. As it is evident
from this Table, the total CO2 emission from different sectors is about 375,186
and 677,330 Gg in 2000 and 2010 respectively. The total CO2 equivalent
emission is estimated to be about 491,051 and 1,092,650 Gg in 2000 and 2010
respectively. According to the Tables, the total CO2 equivalent emission in this
time-period has increased nearly to 23% per year. The variations between total
CO2 equivalent emissions for each sector in 2000 and 2010 are presented in
Figure 4. This figure reveals that the main emission sources in Iran belongs to
energy and waste sectors. Therefore, the energy sector contribution to the total
GHGs emissions in 2000 and 2010 has been changed from 90% to 86%
respectively. In the energy sector, the urban-related resources such as residential,
commercial and transport is contributed to approximately 50% of the GHGs
emissions. Also, the great share of waste source is depends on the urbanization.
This fact explores the urbanization effects on the climate change in Iran. Vice
versa, the urban regions their selves are under the great impacts of climate
change vulnerabilities such as greenhouse effect, heat islands, temperature
inversions and anti-health disasters. Based on the Statistical Center of Iran, the
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urban population of Iran was nearly to 52,519,000 from total 74,158,000 (SCI
2010). On this basis, about 70% of Iranian populations have settled in the urban
regions.
International Agreements on Climate Change
In regard of climate change, many international adoptions and conventions on
climate change have been agreed from Rio 1992 to NY 2016, which Iran has
signed all the agreements. Iran signed the UNFCCC at the Rio de Janeiro Earth
Summit in 1992, and ratified the Convention in 1996. It ratified the Kyoto
Protocol in 2005, and established the Designated National Authority (DNA) to
implement Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects in 2006. The
National CDM Committee comprises nominated members from key ministries
and organizations under supervision of the Department of Environment. Iran’s
first and second National Communications to the UNFCCC were submitted in
2003 and 2011, respectively. Furthermore, the third National Communication
was prepared in 2013 in order to apply in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). In this regard, the National
Climate Change Committee (NCCC) is responsible for implementation climate
strategies and action plans based on the IPCC assessment reports. It comprises
the deputy ministries of the most relevant ministries, under the responsibility of
the Department of Environment. Iran participated in 21st Conference of the
Parties of the UNFCCC in Paris 2015 (COP21), adopted its agreement on 12
December 2015 in Paris and signed its treaty on 22 April 2016 in New York.
Conclusion
According to the research, the Middle East region is considered one of the most
vulnerable regions to climate change impacts. The observations and projections
of climate change in this region are more severe in relative to the world. Hence,
Iran as a main country of Middle East is under intensive climate change impacts.
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In vice versa, high-level contribution of Iran to GHG emissions depends on a
major product of oil, largest reserves of gas and quick urbanization. Iran has
always supported the international efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions
(GHGs) and to adapt to the impacts of climate change, based on the principle of
Common But Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR) at the first Rio Earth
Summit in 1992. Iran’s national strategy for climate change that includes
mitigation and adaption, and National Plan of Action (NPA) to combat dust and
sand storms will be finalized in the near future by directing NCCC. All actions
are intended with this Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) in
the three forthcoming national development plans (2016 to 2030) (NCCC 2015).
The Iranian government policies on climate change concentrates on mitigation in
the energy sector. It benefits from having one of the world’s highest amounts of
solar insolation. Hence, the government-sponsored Renewable Energy
Organization of Iran has been developing applications for renewable energy. In
this regard, the further technological research and development on exploration
the novel methods in renewable energy applications and mitigation of GHGs
emissions will be necessary in order to future adaptations. This target should be
supported by international participation.
References
1. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center; CDIAC (2013). Carbon
dioxide emissions time series. United States Department of Energy's
(DOE). Available via: http://cdiac.ornl.gov.
2. Darand M, Masoodian A, Nazaripour H, Mansouri Daneshvar MR (2015).
Spatial and temporal trend analysis of temperature extremes based on
Iranian climatic database. Arabian Journal of Geosciences 8(10), 84698480.
3. Elasha BO (2010). Mapping of climate change threats and human
development impacts in the Arab region. United Nations Development
7
Programme, Arab Human Development Report (AHDR), Research Paper
Series, 51 pp.
4. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; IPCC (2007). Climate Change
2007 – The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to
the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press.
5. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; IPCC (2012). Changes in
climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press.
6. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; IPCC (2014). Climate Change
2014: Synthesis Report (SYR). Contribution of Working groups I, II and
III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer
(eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.
7. National Aeronautics and Space Administration; NASA (2015). Global
Land-Ocean Temperature Index. Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
Avalable via: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp.
8. National Climate Change Committee; NCCC (2015). Intended Nationally
Determined Contribution. Department of Environment. Available via:
http://www4.unfccc.int.
9. National Climate Change Office of Iran; NCCOI (2010). Second national
communication to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC). Department of Environment. Available via:
http://climate-change.ir
10. National Climate Change Office of Iran; NCCOI (2014). Third national
communication to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC). Department of Environment. Available via:
http://climate-change.ir
11. Nazaripour H, Mansouri Daneshvar MR (2014). Spatial contribution of one–
day precipitations variability to rainy days and rainfall amounts in Iran.
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International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 11(6),
1751–1758.
12. Statistical Center of Iran; SCI (2010). Official report of Iran population.
Available via: http://www.amar.org.ir.
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Table 1: Summary of GHGs emissions inventory (Gg) for all sub-sectors in
2000, based on NCCOI (2010)
Gas
CO2
CH4
N2O
CO
NOx
Energy
337352
1801
8
3308
586
Industrial Processes
28556
3
2
77
8
908
77
199
7
Source
Agriculture
Forestry
9278
Waste
Total GHGs Emissions
893
42
375186
3605
129
3587
601
1
21
310
NA
NA
375186
75720
40145
NA
NA
GWP
Total CO2 Equivalent
3
NA not available,
Table 2: Summary of GHGs emissions inventory (Gg) for all sub-sectors in
2010, based on NCCOI (2014)
Gas
CO2
CH4
N2O
CO
NOx
Energy
584561
5436
4
3308
586
Industrial Processes
83491
30
29
NE
NE
966
75
NE
NE
Source
Agriculture
Forestry
9278*
Waste
Total GHGs Emissions
GWP
Total CO2 Equivalent
NE
11308
30
677330
17740
138
NE
NE
1
21
310
NA
NA
677330
372540
42780
NA
NA
*based on 2000, NA not available, NE not estimated
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Figure 1: the globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature
(1850-2015), based on NASA (2015)
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Figure 2: Geographical position of Iran in Middle East, based on CDIAC (2013)
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Figure 3: Position of Iran in ranking of the world's countries by 2013 total CO2
emissions (in million tons of CO2) based on CDIAC (2013)
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Figure 4: Contribution of total CO2 equivalent emissions for each sector in 2000
and 2010 (in Gg) based on NCCOI (2014)
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