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P1: RTJ 9780521882613pre CUFX269-Gautier 978 0 521 88261 3 February 29, 2008 This page intentionally left blank i 23:39 P1: RTJ 9780521882613pre CUFX269-Gautier 978 0 521 88261 3 February 29, 2008 Oil, Water, and Climate: An Introduction Today’s oil and gas are at record prices, and yet global energy demand is increasing because of population and economic development pressures. Climate change, resulting in large part from the burning of fossil fuels, is exacerbating the impact of the accelerated exploitation of our natural resources. Therefore, anxieties over energy, water, and climate security are at an all-time high. Global action is needed now to address this set of urgent challenges and to avoid putting the future of our civilization at risk. This book examines the powerful interconnections that link energy, water, climate, and population, exploring viable options in addressing these issues collectively. Difficult political decisions and major reforms in resource governance, policies, market forces, and use are needed, and this book provides excellent introductory material to enable readers to begin to understand and address these problems. CATHERINE GAUTIER, Doctorat d’Etat en physique option Météorologie, Université Paris VI, has been professor of geography at the University of California, Santa Barbara, since 1990. Gautier is the former director and principal investigator at the Institute of Computational Earth System Science and current head of the Earth Space Research Group at the University of California, Santa Barbara. i 23:39 P1: RTJ 9780521882613pre CUFX269-Gautier 978 0 521 88261 3 February 29, 2008 ii 23:39 P1: RTJ 9780521882613pre CUFX269-Gautier 978 0 521 88261 3 February 29, 2008 Oil, Water, and Climate: An Introduction Catherine Gautier University of California, Santa Barbara iii 23:39 CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo Cambridge University Press The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 8RU, UK Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521882613 © Catherine Gautier 2008 This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provision of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published in print format 2008 ISBN-13 978-0-511-39830-8 eBook (EBL) ISBN-13 978-0-521-88261-3 hardback ISBN-13 978-0-521-70919-4 paperback Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of urls for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. P1: RTJ 9780521882613pre CUFX269-Gautier 978 0 521 88261 3 February 29, 2008 To my daughters, Kristen and Julie; my niece, Pascale; my nephews; and all my students and their generation. v 23:39 P1: RTJ 9780521882613pre CUFX269-Gautier 978 0 521 88261 3 February 29, 2008 vi 23:39 P1: RTJ 9780521882613pre CUFX269-Gautier 978 0 521 88261 3 February 29, 2008 Contents Foreword xvii Introduction 1 1 Overview 4 Oil, Water, Climate, and Population: An Interactive System of Immense Complexity 4 Coupled Unsustainable Use of Energy and Water Resources 5 Role of Population and Economic Development in Oil and Water Use 5 Effects of Energy Demand and Use on Global Warming 6 Climate Change Can Exacerbate Water Scarcity 7 Oil and Water Resource Issues Share Many Features 7 Exhaustion of Easily Accessible Resources 7 Realization of Finiteness of Resources and New Strategies 8 Value of Efficiency Improvement 8 Oil and Water Security Concerns 9 Poor Management of Oil and Water Resources 9 Aging Infrastructure and Magnitude of the Needed Investments 10 Urgency and Window of Opportunity 10 Major Differences in Oil and Water Resources Issues 11 Strong Leadership Needed 12 2 Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Global Warming, and Water Resources 14 Introduction 14 Carbon Dioxide Emissions 15 Increasing Carbon Dioxide Concentration in the Atmosphere due to Human Activities 16 vii 23:39 P1: RTJ 9780521882613pre CUFX269-Gautier viii 978 0 521 88261 3 February 29, 2008 Contents Earth’s CO2 Concentration and Temperature 19 Understanding the Present by Looking at the Past 19 Relationship between Past CO2 Concentration and Temperature 19 Earth Temperature Observations: Global Warming 20 Temperature: Observations and Proxy Data 20 Understanding Earth’s Temperature Maintenance and Change 22 Earth Radiation Budget and Temperature 22 Increased Greenhouse Effect 24 Feedbacks 24 Earth’s Climate 26 Role of the Ocean on Climate 26 Deep Ocean Circulation and Climate 27 Main Climate Effects of Global Warming 28 Snow, Ice Extent, Oceanic Heat Content, and Sea Level 28 Impact on Water Cycle, Precipitation, El Niño, and Winds 30 Future Carbon Dioxide Emissions 31 Future Climate: Climate Models 31 Predicted Impacts on Water Resources 33 Conclusion 35 3 Population, Environmental Impacts, and Climate Change 36 Introduction 36 Current Population Projections and Characteristics of Future Population 37 Factors Influencing Population Predictions 40 Fertility 42 Mortality 43 Migration 44 Tools for Analyzing Demographic Changes 44 Demographic Transition Model 44 Population Pyramid 45 Uncertainty of Demographic Projections 45 Geographic and Age Distribution of Population 46 Population Concentration in Urban Areas 46 Population Concentration in Coastal Regions 47 An Aging Population 50 Development, Global Energy Use, and Demography 51 Population, Water, and Climate Change 51 Population Growth, Resources Use, and Vulnerability to Climate Change 52 Per Capita Emissions Trends 53 Other Human Impacts on the Global Carbon Balance and Greenhouse Gases 55 23:39