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Higher Geography Atmosphere GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE Note 4 -the y axis does not show Note Note 1 Note -2the - since 3 graph -temperature There 1860 shows have this-also atemperature beenrise in the actual itsteady shows cooler has global than only temperature. average been years. 1°C the rise difference from theabout average! GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE • • • • Physical Factors Human Factors Solar variation Volcanic activity Ocean currents Milankovitch cycles • Burning fossil fuels • Increased output of methane etc. • Deforestation PHYSICAL 1-SOLAR VARIATION The sun’s output varies slightly from time to time - its size is even known to change by a fraction as it expands and contracts. PHYSICAL 1 - SOLAR VARIATION • Sunspots: an increase in sunspot activity may lead to a very slight increase in the sun’s output and a temporary warming of the earth. • Sunspot activity follows 11 and 22 year cycles. •The Little Ice Age of 1450-1700 may have been linked to periods of very low sunspot activity. PHYSICAL 2 - VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS • Eruptions of volcanoes can throw millions of tonnes of ash,dust and sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere. • This produces aerosols that can reduce the amount of sunlight reaching the earth. • This can lead to a temporary cooling of VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS 2 • Major eruptions in the past which have been linked to short periods of global cooling include Tambora (1815), Krakatoa (1883), Mt. St Helens (1980) and Pinatubo (1991) When Mt. Pinatubo erupted in 1991 an estimated 22 million tons of ash was thrown into the atmosphere, cooling the world’s climate by about 1°C. When Tambora erupted in 1815 it led to 1816 being called “the year without summer”, when summer frosts and other major weather problems were experienced. It cooled the global climate by 3°C. PHYSICAL 3 - MILANKOVITCH CYCLES • Stretch, Wobble and Roll!!! • Milankovitch cycles are three variations in the earth’s orbit. Although they may be linked to very long term changes in the climate, their effect would not be noticed on a scale of a few hundred years. PHYSICAL 4 - OCEAN CURRENTS • Changes in the pattern and strength of ocean currents may lead to changes in the distribution of heat around the planet. • A short term example would be El Niño, which appears every few years. • A longer term example would be the North Atlantic Drift, which may change position every few thousand years. ENSO - the El Niño Southern Oscillation The “normal” conditions, with cool surface water off the coast of Peru. A La Niña year Every 2-7 years the western Pacific becomes much warmer, disrupting weather patterns - possibly on a global scale. An El Niño year • p://www.teahttchersdomain.org/resou rce/ess05.sci.ess.watcyc.eselnino/ One theory suggests that global warming will increase the number of icebergs in the Atlantic, cooling the sea and switching off the North Atlantic Drift / Atlantic Conveyor system. This would be bad news for us! The Atlantic Conveyor system is part of a global circulation of water and heat energy. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE - HUMAN FACTORS - 1 - THE ENHANCED GREENHOUSE EFFECT. HUMAN 1 - BURNING FOSSIL FUELS • The fossil fuels are:- • COAL • OIL • NATURAL GAS • They are called fossil fuels because they are formed from the remains of ancient plants (coal) and marine animals (oil). BURNING FOSSIL FUELS When we burn these fuels, we release millions of tonnes of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere. There has been an enormous increase in these greenhouse gases since the Industrial Revolution began about 200 years ago. BURNING FOSSIL FUELS Power stations are one of the main producers of greenhouse gases such as Carbon Dioxide. Environmental campaigners all over the world are demanding cuts in CO2 emissions. Here Greenpeace uses a light display to get its message across. HUMAN 1 - VEHICLE EXHAUSTS Vehicle exhausts are the main source of Nitrous Oxides. Power Stations can also emit this gas. BURNING FOSSIL FUELS Photo chemical smog in Beijing, China. HUMAN 2 - INCREASED METHANE The huge increase in world population and in the area of land given over to crops in general and to rice production in particular, has led to a rapid rise in global methane production. Farmland for rice has doubled in 45 years. I am a ruminant - when I digest grass, I produce methane - lots of it! HUMAN 2 - INCREASED METHANE • A cow can produce about a quarter of a kg. of methane a day. • The number of cattle has doubled in the past 40 years. Sheep, goats and camels are also ruminants. • There are now 1.3 billion cattle, each producing methane several times a minute! • The New Zealand government is proposing to bring in a “flatulence” tax on cattle farms. HUMAN 3 - DEFORESTATION Forests absorb CO2 and release oxygen: ...if they are cut down, atmospheric levels of CO2 must rise as a consequence. Increases in CFC and PFCs • • • • From aerosols Air-conditioning systems Refrigerators Polystyrene packages HUMAN 3 - DEFORESTATION • Clearing forest by burning releases huge amounts of stored CO2 back into the atmosphere. • The smoke from the fires also adds to global air pollution. The effects of global warming in both Developed and Developing countries The consequences of global warming • Melting of the ice sheets/glaciers • A rise in sea level with subsequent migration as islands and coastal areas are submerged. Loss of plant and animal habitats in these areas eg impact on polar bears which could lead to a loss of tourism/more problems in settlements as the bears scavenge instead of hunting on the ice.Polar Bears • New transportation routes across the Arctic Ocean ie the North West Passage with resulting benefits to trade/previously ice bound coastal settlements. • Extension of mineral exploitation into the Arctic with positive and negative consequences. • Oil in Greenland • Changing rainfall/temperature patterns • Higher or lower rainfall/temperature and maybe more extreme weather depending on where you are with resulting increasing/decreasing crop yields, • more floods/drought/hurricanes/tornadoes etc. • Extension or retreat of vegetation (and associated wildlife) by altitude as well as latitude – growing vines/sunflowers in Scotland, spread of malaria, the loss of the Cairngorm Arctic habitat etc. • Change in ocean currents (EI Nino/La Nina). • Change to the Atlantic Conveyor – disruption of the thermohaline circulation. The effects of global warming in The UK GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE - REVIEW OF MAIN POINTS Physical Factors • • • • Human Factors Solar variation • Burning fossil fuels Volcanic activity Ocean currents • Increased output of methane Milankovitch • Deforestation cycles KEY TERMS TO REMEMBER • • • • • • • • • Solar variation / Sunspots Volcanic eruptions /Sulphur dioxide /Aerosols Milankovitch cycles El Niño Enhanced Greenhouse effect Carbon Dioxide / Methane / Nitrous Oxides The Industrial Revolution / burning fossil fuels Paddy fields / cattle / methane production Deforestation Exam questions and advice. 2001 Paper 1 Note the narrow band of temperature variation - less than 1°C overall. Note the timescale - only 140 years. Note the overall trend is towards warmer temperatures, but there have also been several cooler than average years. 1997 Paper 1 Again, note the narrow temperature range. This is not 0°C - it shows the difference between these years and the average. No clues in the wording, so remember both physical and human factors. (c) Suggest reasons for the variations in global temperatures shown on the diagram. (4) 1992 Paper 1 Note the similarities in the wording and graphics with other years. Again, remember the narrow temperature range above and below the average. Don’t forget to describeeasy marks if you mention the upward trend and the occasional high and low points.