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CLIMATE CHANGE & THE ENVIRONMENT EFFECTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON CIVIL INFRASTRUCTURE. A Report by Ms Vicki Shelton, City of Greater Geelong August/September 2008 TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................. 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................ 5 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 6 BACKGROUND ................................................................................................................ 7 Impacts In Coastal Areas – Human Pressures & Climate Change Impacts .................... 7 Sea Level Rise And Storm Surge.................................................................................... 7 Sea Level Rise Maps ..................................................................................................... 10 Adaptation ..................................................................................................................... 11 OVERSEAS STUDY TOUR EXAMPLES – IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE ....................................................................................................... 12 USA – SANTA MONICA, CALIFORNIA ...................................................................... 13 Climate Change Impacts - Sea Level Rise .................................................................... 13 Planning for Climate Change - Sea Level Rise ............................................................ 13 Construction Methods ................................................................................................... 14 Information and Research ............................................................................................. 14 Guidelines and Standards .............................................................................................. 14 Applicability ................................................................................................................. 15 USA – NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA .......................................................................... 16 Climate Change Impacts - Sea Level Rise .................................................................... 16 Living With Risk in New Orleans ........................................................................ 16 Hurricane Katrina.................................................................................................. 17 Planning for Climate Change - Sea Level Rise ............................................................ 19 Construction Methods ................................................................................................... 20 Information and Research ............................................................................................. 24 Guidelines and Standards .............................................................................................. 24 Applicability ................................................................................................................. 26 SWEDEN – WESTERN HARBOUR, MALMO ............................................................. 27 Climate Change Impacts - Sea Level Rise .................................................................... 28 Planning for Climate Change - Sea Level Rise ............................................................ 28 Construction Methods ................................................................................................... 28 Information and Research ............................................................................................. 28 Guidelines and Standards .............................................................................................. 29 Applicability ................................................................................................................. 29 SWEDEN – HAMMERBY, STOCKHOLM ................................................................... 30 Climate Change Impacts - Sea Level Rise .................................................................... 31 Planning for Climate Change - Sea Level Rise ............................................................ 31 Construction Methods ................................................................................................... 31 Information and Research ............................................................................................. 32 Guidelines and Standards .............................................................................................. 32 Applicability ................................................................................................................. 32 UK – GREENWICH, MILLENIUM VILLAGE.............................................................. 33 Climate Change Impacts - Sea Level Rise .................................................................... 33 Planning for Climate Change - Sea Level Rise ............................................................ 34 Page 2 Construction Methods ................................................................................................... 34 Information and Research ............................................................................................. 34 Guidelines and Standards .............................................................................................. 36 Applicability ................................................................................................................. 36 UK – GREENWICH, THAMES BARRIER .................................................................... 37 Climate Change Impacts - Sea Level Rise .................................................................... 37 Planning for Climate Change - Sea Level Rise ............................................................ 37 Construction Methods ................................................................................................... 37 Information and Research ............................................................................................. 38 Guidelines and Standards .............................................................................................. 38 Applicability ................................................................................................................. 38 ADAPTATION OUTCOMES AND FUTURE IMPLICATIONS .................................. 39 Climate Change Impacts ............................................................................................... 39 Planning for Climate Change ........................................................................................ 39 Construction Methods ................................................................................................... 39 Information and Research ............................................................................................. 39 Guidelines and Standards .............................................................................................. 40 Applicability ................................................................................................................. 40 BIBILIOGRAPHY ........................................................................................................... 41 Page 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank the Municipal Engineering Foundation for selecting me to receive this award in 2008 and to Mr Robert Ward MEF trustee for guiding us at the Congress and providing support along the way. In particular I want to acknowledge Ms Kay Rundle, Chief Executive, Mr Peter Reeve General Manager City Services and Mr David Hannah Manager Engineering Services at the City of Greater Geelong for encouraging me to apply for this award and allowing me the time to attend the congress and extended Study Tour itinerary. I want to also thank my fellow participants Mr Mike Ellis Cardinia Shire, Mr Nick Mazzarella Darebin City Council and Mr Justin Hinch Horsham Rural City Council for making the tour both enjoyable and educational. I wish to acknowledge the following municipalities who were kind enough to grant us access to their staff and permit us to visit and learn from them The City of Santa Monica, California, USA The City of Malmo, Sweden The City of Vaxjo, Sweden The City of Stockholm, Sweden The City of Greenwich, UK The City of Sutton, UK The City of Milton Keynes, UK Page 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Municipal Engineering Foundation Study Tour of USA, Europe and UK in 2008 focused on Climate Change and the impacts on our environment. The group of four participants set an itinerary that allowed us to visit Cities in the United States, Sweden, Denmark and the United Kingdom and research innovations in planning, resource use, water reuse and energy efficiency in residential and commercial developments. My topic focused on the impacts of Sea Level Rise on infrastructure in the Cities visited. Although my report initially envisaged new or cutting edge research from the overseas sites I visited, what I did find is that Australia is on a par if not leading the world in our assessment of the impacts of Climate Change in relation to sea level rise. Our ability to adapt is still in its embryonic stages with much emphasis being placed on research and understanding the impacts of sea level rise on our infrastructure and environment. What I did observe was that each City we visited was aware of Climate Change and the impact of sea level rise but were focused on other aspects such as the cause of Climate Change – reduction in Carbon emissions and the impacts in relation to available resources as their main priorities. I was able to observe how recent developments have incorporated the potential impacts of sea level rise within their original planning phase. The majority of Swedish development had designed to build at least 300mm above existing surface levels which themselves were around 2.5m above sea level. Storm surge is currently the major influence on protection measures as indicated by the Thames Barrier in London and the Levee systems of New Orleans. Acceptance of the flood impacts on individual properties over time has led to reduced insurance coverage and thus greater losses when a devastating event does occur. This is particularly evident in the USA. The concept of Adaptation and the options to protect, accommodate or retreat were applied in varying degrees in each location visited. Protection is the initial choice for all locations in the form of levees, pump systems and sea and river walls, followed by non-structural options including changes to planning schemes and the provision of specified floor levels. The option to retreat is now being considered as an acceptable solution to adapt to Climate Change impacts due to sea level rise in coastal areas. This includes building structures with a short asset life in susceptible areas or the relocation of populations from flood devastated areas such as in New Orleans where rebuilding may no longer be viable. Page 5 INTRODUCTION My chosen topic referred to Climate Change and the impacts on Civil Infrastructure due to Sea Level Rise. The objectives were: A. To observe and seek information from other Municipalities and Authorities on how they are currently managing sea level rise in relation to their existing and future stormwater management systems (Climate Change Impacts - Sea Level Rise); B. To determine how a City can Plan for new residential development and manage existing developments whilst mitigating the impact of combined stormwater flooding and sea level rise events (Planning for Climate Change - Sea Level Rise); C. To assess different construction methods and materials used in these environments (Construction Methods); D. To make found research available for the education of local engineers, consultants, planners and residents living in these seaside communities (Information and Research); E. To apply changes to the City of Greater Geelong’s standard design specifications, guidelines and conditions (Guidelines and Standards); F. To apply changes across similar Bayside Municipalities in our region (Application to Australia). The topics chosen by my fellow awardees also reflected Climate Change and referred to new developments, water reuse and energy efficiencies. We chose to visit municipalities predominantly located on the coast and those locations that had undertaken or were planning to undertake major urban renewal projects. Thus allowing us to observe and obtain information in relation to how growing communities adapt to climate change. The sites chose were: o The City of Santa Monica, California, USA o New Orleans, Louisiana, USA where we also attended the APWA Congress o Washington DC, USA o Copenhagen, Denmark o The City of Malmo, Sweden o The City of Vaxjo, Sweden o The City of Stockholm, Sweden o The City of Greenwich, UK o The City of Sutton, UK o The City of Milton Keynes, UK Page 6 BACKGROUND Impacts In Coastal Areas – Human Pressures & Climate Change Impacts Few of the world’s coastlines are now beyond the influence of human pressures, although not all coasts are inhabited. It has been estimated that 23% of the world’s population lives both within 100km distance of the coast and < 100m above sea level and population densities in coastal regions are about three times higher than the global average. 60% of the world’s 3 metropolises with a population of over 5 million are located within 100 km of the coast, including 12 of the world’s 16 cities with populations greater than 10 million. The direct impacts of human activities on the coastal zone have been more significant over the past century than impacts that can be directly attributed to observed climate change. The major direct impacts include: o drainage of coastal wetlands, deforestation and reclamation, and discharge of sewage, fertilizers and contaminants into coastal waters; o extractive activities including sand mining, hydrocarbon production, harvest of fisheries and other resources, introduction of invasive species; o engineering structures such as construction of seawalls and damming, channelisation and diversions of coastal waterways. The following table summarises the range of potential drivers of climate change impacts in coastal areas. (IPCC 2007) Sea Level Rise And Storm Surge Global sea level rise is projected by the IPCC to be 18-59 cm by 2100, with a possible contribution from ice sheets of 10 to 20 cm. However, further ice sheet contributions that cannot be quantified at this time may increase the upper limit of sea level rise substantially. Global climate models indicate that mean sea level rise on the east cost of Australia may be greater than the global mean sea level rise. Page 7 Storm surges occurring on higher mean sea levels will enable inundation and damaging waves to penetrate further inland. This would increase flooding, erosion and damage to built infrastructure and natural ecosystems. Changes to wind speed will also affect storm surge height. Storm surge studies for portions of the Victorian and Queensland coasts demonstrate the potential for significant increases in inundation due to higher mean se level and more intense weather systems. The following box explains how storm surge occurs. (CSIRO 2007) Climate change and sea level rise affect coastal settlements and infrastructure in several ways. Refer following table (IPCC 2007) Page 8 New Orleans is subsiding and therefore exposed to additional risks of extreme water levels overtopping flood defenses as occurred during Hurricane Katrina. Figure 1 Maximum Flooding Depth New Orleans By September 1, 2005, portions of Lakeview, Gentilly, New Orleans East, and the Lower Ninth Ward were submerged in more than 10 feet of water (orange and red colored areas). Significant portions of the city stood in water more than 6 feet deep (green and aqua colored areas). (ASCE 2007) Page 9 London as a coastal city is heavily dependent upon artificial coastal defenses. It therefore requires upgraded design criteria for its flood embankments and barrages such as the Thames Barrier. Figure 2 Tower Bridge, Thames River, London Sea Level Rise Maps Website http://geology.com/sea-level-rise shows areas of coastline that would be flooded at various stages of sea level rise for the sites visited. Page 10 Adaptation Recent extreme events, both climate and non-climate related, that had major consequences for coastal systems, provide important messages for adaptation to climate change. Scientific literature and government reports emanating from hurricane and cyclone impacts (e.g., Cook Islands (Ingram, 2005); Katrina (US Government, 2006); Australia (Williams et al., 2007), flood impacts (e.g., Mumbai (Wisner, 2006)) and the Boxing Day Sumatran tsunami (UNEP, 2005; UNOCHA, 2005) include the following. (IPCC 2007) o An effective early warning communication and response system can reduce death and destruction; o Hazard awareness education and personal hazard experience are important contributors to reducing community vulnerability; o Many factors reduce the ability or willingness of people to flee an impending disaster, including the warning time, access and egress routes, and their perceived need to protect property, pets and possessions; o Coastal landforms (coral reefs, barrier islands) and wetland ecosystems (mangroves, marshes) provide a natural first line of protection from storm surges and flooding, despite divergent views about the extent to which they reduce destruction; o Recurrent events reduce the resilience of natural and artificial defenses; o In the aftermath of extreme events, additional trauma occurs in terms of dispossession and mental health; o Uncoordinated and poorly regulated construction has accentuated vulnerability; o Effective disaster prevention and response rely on strong governance and institutions, as well as adequate public preparedness. The following figure illustrates the evolution of thinking with respect to planned adaptation practices in the coastal zone. It also provides examples of current adaptation interventions. (IPCC 2007). Page 11 OVERSEAS STUDY TOUR EXAMPLES – IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE I observed a range of adaptation measures in relation to Climate Change Impacts due to Sea Level Rise and storm surge from each of the following visited municipalities. ADAPTATION MEASURE LOCATION EXAMPLE Protect New Orleans, USA Levees / pump systems Malmo, Sweden Reclaim land, foreshore protection works Hammerby, Sweden Reclaim land Greenwich, UK Thames Barrier, river bank protection Santa Monica, USA Specify building floor levels New Orleans, USA Flood hazard mapping, wetland restoration, insurance Malmo, Sweden Specify building floor levels Hammerby, Sweden Specify building floor levels Greenwich, UK Specify building floor levels New Orleans, USA Flood warnings, evacuation protocols Accommodate Retreat I shall now comment on each of the Municipalities visited in respect to the following six issues; in this case the Cities specifically affected by Sea Level Rise and shall provide a summary on adaptation outcomes and future implications. 1. Climate Change Impacts - Sea Level Rise 2. Planning for Climate Change - Sea Level Rise 3. Construction Methods 4. Information and Research 5. Guidelines and Standards 6. Applicability Page 12 USA – SANTA MONICA, CALIFORNIA In Santa Monica, California, we met with Shannon Parry, Sustainable City Program Coordinator and Neal Shapiro, Urban runoff coordinator from the City of Santa Monica’s Environment Unit. The City of Santa Monica covers an area of 8.3 square miles. It is surrounded on one side by Santa Monica Bay and the remaining 3 sides by the City of Los Angeles. The residential population of Santa Monica is 90,000 with an anticipated 150,000 visitors on a normal day increasing to 500,000 a day in summer. Residents enjoy a 2% higher income compared to the Greater Los Angeles area but there are an increasing number of poor and homeless, mainly due to a temperate climate. Figure 3 Santa Monica, California - Foreshore Climate Change Impacts - Sea Level Rise Sea level rise impacts on the west coast of California are mitigated by the existence of the California Shelf which extends into the Pacific Ocean. The Santa Monica foreshore rises over 18 feet to the built up area. The majority of stormwater outfalls to Santa Monica Bay are at the beach level, inundation of outfalls would cause stormwater to back up the system and in the situation of a storm surge event potentially lead to flooding in some lower lying areas. Planning for Climate Change - Sea Level Rise Any areas susceptible to inundation due to sea level rise are likely to be the beach front and beach side cliffs and thus the majority of impact would be on natural structures rather than man made infrastructure. On observation a number of older buildings and associated access roads are located along the lower foreshore level. They would be susceptible to inundation in an event. It is noted that the majority of impacts would be to the Tourism industry due to reduced available beach area for recreation purposes. Page 13 Construction Methods The Santa Monica pier was recently redeveloped and strengthened to combat potential storm surge events. The facilities on the pier are powered via solar cells; this includes the lighting, carnival rides and recharging facilities for the electric cars operated by the City’s Environment Unit. Many of the outfalls to the bay have decreased flows due to the introduction of Low Impact Development Strategies in Santa Monica’s Urban Watershed Management Program. Sites are being redeveloped to include retention and treatment of stormwater runoff for use on site thus reducing the amount of discharge to the stormwater network and thus to the bay. Santa Monica voters approved the Clean Beaches and Ocean parcel tax which will fund a comprehensive 20-year plan to improve water quality in Santa Monica Bay, increasing recreational options and controlling local flooding by enhancing investment in stormwater infrastructure and pollution control. Figure 4 Santa Monica, California – Santa Monica Pier The Pier prepares to turn 100 on September 9th, 2009, in 1983 severe storms damaged over one third of the piers length. Information and Research Thirteen years ago Santa Monica launched the Sustainable City Plan (SCP), a visionary plan for the community’s future. Santa Monica is now an internationally recognized and award winning sustainability leader. The plan sets goals in the areas of; Resource Conservation, Environmental & Public Health, Transportation, Economic Development, Open Space & Land Use, Housing, Community Education & Civic Participation, Human Dignity. Santa Monica prepares an annual Sustainable City Report Card which represents a snapshot of Santa Monica’s progress toward meeting its aggressive sustainable city plan goals. Guidelines and Standards The City of Santa Monica provides guidelines for stormwater management on new and development sites. The City of Santa Monica website contains links to agencies and resources applicable to all areas of their sustainable City Plan. Visit www.smepd.org to view the SCP and links to resources. Page 14 The California Coastal Commission has prepared a Local Coastal Program (LCP) for Santa Monica. The policies applicable to the LCP are organized as follows: Protection and expansion of public access to the shoreline and recreational opportunities and resources, including commercial visitor-serving facilities; Protection, enhancement and restoration of environmentally sensitive habitats, including intertidal and nearshore waters, wetlands, bays and estuaries, riparian habitat, certain wood and grasslands, streams, lakes, and habitat for rare or endangered plants or animals; Protection of productive agricultural lands, commercial fisheries and archaeological resources; Protection of the scenic beauty of coastal landscapes and seascapes; The establishment, to the extent possible, of urban-rural boundaries and directing new housing and other development into areas with adequate services to avoid wasteful urban sprawl and leapfrog development; and Protection against loss of life and property from coastal hazards. Applicability Potential impacts on the foreshore cliff areas may be applicable in the area of Clifton springs where we have quite unstable cliff soil materials. The Best Management Practices guidelines for onsite treatment of stormwater for potential reuse can be applied to Australian situations with many of the examples particularly relevant. Page 15 USA – NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA In New Orleans, Louisiana, we attended the APWA Congress from Sunday 17th August to Thursday 21st August. The following are some summary comments from relevant congress presentations, workshop sessions and a City tour. The main topic of conversation of course was Hurricane Katrina and the Renewal / Rebuilding efforts that have gone on since that day on the 29 August 2005. Figure 5 - The group on the Mississippi River Levee Bank – Mike Ellis, Justin Hinch, Robert Ward, Vicki Shelton and Nick Mazarella Climate Change Impacts - Sea Level Rise Living With Risk in New Orleans The French established New Orleans around 1718 and it flooded that year. In 1722 / 23 hurricanes caused flooding and again in 1735 major flooding occurred. It was a poor site which was known to be flood prone. However it was an excellent situation to make it a compelling site for settlement. It was the gateway to the Mississippi Basin and hinterland. French colonial settlement was able to hold back the British and prevent them expanding their colonial holdings. The French were able to export the riches of the country. Therefore the economic potential benefits of the site outweighed the risk of settlement. The initial settlement was located on high ground, 15 feet above sea level (ASL); the physical site was surrounded by marshes and swamps. The initial risk from flooding was assumed by the property owner not the government. Gradually over time the risk was transferred to the government with the building of levees to ensure the Mississippi was navigable. Initial levees were 4 feet high compared to the current height of 22 feet today. Many were poorly maintained and inconsistent construction allowed floods to break through. However New Orleans had no river breaches post construction of the levees in 1860. Page 16 New Orleans fronts onto Lake Ponchartrain, the Lake front was subject to storm surges and thus berms were built to protect the land. This location was the first part of a levee system to be constructed that would allow drainage of wetlands near the lake and thus provide land for new real estate. In 1915 the first storm occurred around the lake, 25000 homes were damaged. City Engineers rethought how to assess risk and rebuilt the sea wall 9.5 feet high along the lake front. Residents moved to take up the lake front lots in new subdivisions created in the 1920’s thus creating a situation of risk by encouraging people to move into harms way. In 1927 the Mississippi river flooded and 700,000 people were displaced however no flooding occurred at New Orleans, the levees held. The newly built structures kept out the floods but built a false sense of security. Man builds levees to a certain standard but they can be exceeded by an event as per 1927. After 1927 the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) built levees and outlets, spillways and canals that mimicked nature thus trying to tame the river and wetlands. No major hurricanes hit the area until 1947, in which only minor flooding of new residential areas occurred due to protection from the sea wall but major flooding was experienced in Jefferson parish to the west. Subsequently, the USACE built a major earthen berm along the lake front to protect Jefferson parish. Again in 1975 hurricane Betsy caused a lot of flooding with over 27,000 homes destroyed and 300,000 people were evacuated and 81 fatalities recorded. Evacuation became a new component added to flood risk and adaptation. The USACE then presented an ambitious program with congress to begin encircling larger areas of New Orleans with levees to keep hurricane storms out. They defined a standard hurricane reasonably likely to occur in this region, i.e. 100 mph and a 1/200 years return (0.5%). This criteria was prior to the current categories of 1-5 which consider a 1/100 year return event (1%). In fact the current categories consider it a decrease in risk. The outcomes of all this resulted in: USACE building higher levees which took more time to build but at the same cost; People felt levees negated the risk; Creating a levee system which created a false sense of security, and didn’t really deal with hurricanes; Levees reduced risk from river flooding but increased risk due to false sense of security by building behind the levee; Public were not aware of the potential consequences. Hurricane Katrina Hurricane Katrina made landfall as a category 4 storm in Plaquemines Parish, LA on the morning of August 29, 2005. The storm overtopped levees and floodwalls throughout southeast Louisiana and also caused levees and floodwalls in the New Orleans area to fail or breach in more than 50 locations. Water rushed into New Orleans and flooded over 80 percent of the city – more than 10 feet deep in some neighborhoods. One thousand one hundred eighteen (1,118) people lost their lives in the New Orleans area and over 130 are missing and presumed dead (2007). Economic losses totaled more than US$100billion. Roughly 300,000 homes and over 1,000 historical and cultural sites were destroyed along the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. Page 17 Figure 6 New Orleans - Flooded Overtopping and breaching at approximately 50 locations in the hurricane protection system led to destructive flooding that covered more than 80 percent of New Orleans (ASCE 2007) More than 400,000 people fled the city. The estimated population in 2004 (US 2004 census) was 1,034,126 and in 2006 was estimated at 581,417 a 44 percent decrease. Many of the population had not returned to New Orleans since Katrina. Some areas have chosen not to rebuild because they cannot get adequate insurance to cover rebuilding costs. Figure 7 New Orleans - Mass Migration The evacuation of New Orleanians before and after Hurricane Katrina represents the largest mass migration in United States history since the Civil War. Above, immediately following the hurricane, the Page 18 Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport became a processing center for rescued people leaving the city. Below, thousands of evacuees left the area by bus. (ASCE 2007) I had the opportunity to visit the devastated 9th Ward and view first hand the damage still in evidence from this disaster. Some areas are starting to rebuilt but it will be a long time before full development occurs if ever. Figure 8 Lower Ninth Ward after Floodwaters Were Removed The force of the torrential waters raging through Industrial Canal East Bank North Breach (upper right) knocked some houses in the Lower Ninth Ward many feet off their foundations and completely obliterated others. (This photo was taken after floodwaters had been removed.) (ASCE 2007) The main question asked in relation to New Orleans is why would you build in such a low lying area knowing that it is subject to flooding? As noted previously the economic potential benefits of the site outweighed the risk of settlement. From New Orleans, products reach Americans either via a 14,500 mile inland waterways network including the Mississippi, Missouri and Ohio Rivers, or via other transportation modes, including six railroad lines, 50 ocean carriers, 16 barge lines, and 75 truck lines with access to the port. In addition to cargo, cruise ships and riverboats transport more than 700,000 passengers through the port annually. The situation in the rest of the USA is that over 150,000 square miles or 7% of the country is prone to floods. Almost 10 million households and US$390 billion in property are at risk today. The rate of urban growth in flood plains is twice that of the rest of the country. Noting that the average annual loss of life from floods is stable, however the average annual flood losses are rising. The loss of natural flood storage continues. But damages have increased in real dollars and disaster relief averages US$3billion per year and uninsured losses are growing. Planning for Climate Change - Sea Level Rise Aerial video, still photography, and laser altimetry surveys of post-storm beach conditions along the foreshore of New Orleans were collected on August 31 and September 1, 2005 for comparison with Page 19 earlier data. The comparisons show the nature, magnitude, and spatial variability of coastal changes such as beach erosion, overwash deposition, and island breaching. The data will be used to further refine predictive models of coastal impacts from severe storms. The data is being made available to local, state, and federal agencies for purposes of disaster recovery and erosion mitigation. (USGS). The research project is similar to the Future Coasts Project underway in Victoria, Australia. Tasks include; Database and GIS Development – develop and populate relevant databases, websites Subsidence and Sea Level Rise investigations – collect geologic data Impacts of Subsidence and Sea Level Rise – use high resolution seismic data, lidar to demonstrate impacts Technology Transfer – promote information transfer to future users New Orleans has learnt to adapt to the impacts of storm surge and Sea level rise via protection from levees, pump systems and now an effective evacuation system. Construction Methods Evidence from the recent hurricane events showed how the earthen berms and levees held. There were two direct causes of the levee breaches: collapse of several levees with concrete flood walls (called I-walls) because of the way they were designed, and overtopping, where water poured over the tops of the levees and floodwalls and eroded the structures away. Furthermore, the many existing pump stations that could have helped remove floodwaters were inoperable during and after the storm. Figure 9 Major Breaches in the New Orleans Hurricane Protection System Failures of several I-walls and levees along the canals that finger into New Orleans allowed massive amounts of water to flood New Orleans. (ASCE 2007) The I-walls failed because the margin of safety used in the design process was too low – especially considering that the hurricane protection system was a critical life-safety structure. The engineering Page 20 design did not account for the variability in the strength of soft soils beneath and adjacent to he levees. The designers failed to take into account a water-filled gap that developed behind the I-walls as they bowed outward from the forces exerted by the floodwaters. Some overtopping of levees is to be expected in a major storm. However, the levees were not armored or protected against erosion – an engineering choice of catastrophic consequences because this allowed the levees, some constructed of highly erodible soil, to be scoured away, allowing water to pour into New Orleans. Figure 10 Failed I-Wall and Levee Sections The levees and I-walls were constructed piecemeal with different top elevations and of different materials: earth, steel, and concrete. The floodwaters preferentially attacked the lower-elevation erodible earth first, causing major breaches. (ASCE 2007) The following figures show examples of typical USACE flood protection structures and subsequent failure modes. Figure 11 Overtopped I-wall Failure Mechanism Page 21 1: Floodwaters overtop the I-wall. 2: The water scours soil from the land-side of the I-wall and washes it away. 3: I-wall fails due to lack of foundation support. Water flowing over the floodwalls scoured and eroded the land-side of the levee at the base of the walls. The sheet piles that support the I-walls were undermined. In some locations, the sheet pile walls may have lost all of their foundation support, resulting in failure of the wall. (ASCE 2007) Figure 12 Overtopped Levee Erosion Failure Mechanism 1: Floodwaters overtop the levee. 2: The water scours soil from the crest and land-side of the levee and washes it away. Page 22 3: Some levees constructed of sand and silt washed away completely. Water overtopping the levees caused serious scour and erosion. Some levees were completely washed away. (ASCE 2007) The USACE’s overall strategy to protect against flooding caused by hurricanes and storm surge is to built levees or floodwalls around segments of New Orleans. The three main project areas are: Lake Ponchartrain, Louisiana and Vicinity, Hurricane Protection Project West Bank and Vicinity, New Orleans, Louisiana, Hurricane Protection Project New Orleans to Venice, Louisiana, Hurricane Protection Project The USACE had just completed works on the 17th Street Canal pumping station in the Lake Ponchartrain project and during the conference I was able to visit the site and see first hand the pump system in action. Figure 13 17th Street Canal Breach The 17th Street Canal breach began at approximately 6:30am. By 9:00am, torrents of water from Lake Ponchartrain were rushing in to flood the Lakeview neighborhood (top of photo) and, ultimately, much of midtown New Orleans and surrounding areas. (ASCE 2007) Page 23 New Orleans’s pumping system is one of the largest in the world. There are nearly 100 pumping station sin the greater New Orleans area. Some recently complete, i.e. the 17th Street Canal and others over 100 years old, i.e. the Metairie Pump station which we also visited. Figure 14 New Orleans – 17th Street Canal Pump Station Information and Research The USACE Interagency Performance Evaluation Taskforce (IPET) was tasked with identifying lessons learned and ways to potentially improve the performance of the existing hurricane protection system at the authorized level of protection. The IPET’s work is documented in a comprehensive final report that is available at https://ipet.wes.army.mil/. The Chief of Engineers from the USACE requested that The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) form an external review panel to review and comment on IPET’s work. The Hurricane Katrina External Review Panel has prepared a report; The New Orleans Protection System – “What Went Wrong and Why” and a statement; Hurricane Katrina: One Year Later “What Must We Do Next?” Extracts from both documents are referred to in the preparation of this report. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), NASA, USACE, and the University of New Orleans are cooperating in a research project investigating coastal change that occurred as a result of Hurricane Katrina. The USGS project is one step to understanding the impacts of storm surge and provide potential options for adaptation in the future. Guidelines and Standards Specific recommendations from the ASCE report include: Understand risk and embrace safety Keep safety at the forefront of public priorities - All responsible agencies in New Orleans and throughout the nation should re-evaluate their policies and practices to ensure that protection of public safety, health, and welfare is the top priority for the infrequent but potentially devastating impacts from Page 24 hurricanes and flooding. The United States Congress should establish and fund a program for nationwide levee safety and rehabilitation, much as we do for major dams. Quantify the risks - The USACE should complete the work necessary to quantify and effectively communicate the risk as soon as possible, and, because risk assessment and communication is not static, should periodically update the assessment of risk. This risk assessment approach should be extended to all areas of the nation that are vulnerable to major losses from hurricanes and flooding. Communicate the risks to the public and decide how much risk is acceptable - Local, state, and federal agencies should create and maintain quality programs of public risk communication in New Orleans and other areas threatened by hurricanes and flooding. Re-evaluate and Fix the Hurricane Protection System Rethink the whole system, including land use in New Orleans - Local, state, and federal leaders should review the overall strategy and systems approach, integrating hurricane protection tactics, land-use considerations, and emergency response strategies into a coherent and well-thought-out system. Correct the deficiencies - Local, state, and federal leaders should continue the work necessary to correct the deficiencies in the hurricane protection systems, and bring this work to completion with urgency. Establish mechanisms to incorporate changing information. Make the levees functional even if overtopped. Strengthen or upgrade the floodwalls and levees. Upgrade the pumping stations. Revamp the Management of the Hurricane Protection System Put someone in charge - Local, state, and federal leaders should agree to assign to a single individual the responsibility for managing critical hurricane and flood protection systems such as the one in the New Orleans area. Improve inter-agency coordination - All agencies involved in the hurricane protection system should implement far better and more effective mechanisms for coordination and cooperation. Demand engineering Quality Upgrade engineering design procedures - The engineering community should review and update engineering design procedures for hurricane and flood protection systems to ensure that these updated procedures take all reasonable steps to protect the public safety, health, and welfare. Bring in independent experts - Agencies responsible for design of hurricane and flood protection systems and other critical life-safety structures should engage independent experts in high-level review of every project. Place safety first - ASCE, working in partnership with the USACE and other engineering organizations, should reinforce the need to place the safety, health, and welfare of the public first, and should communicate that public safety must always be the highest priority. ASCE also recommended that the USACE take a proactive leadership role in three areas: Clearly communicate to the public the serious risk of catastrophic flooding in the New Orleans area with the existing hurricane protection system. Argue vigorously for the best possible evacuation and emergency response plan. Proceed with urgency to improve upon the hurricane protection system and non structure elements. Page 25 Applicability The findings in the ASCE reports extend far beyond the New Orleans hurricane protection system. The lessons learned from the engineering and engineering-related policy failures triggered by Hurricane Katrina have profound implications for other American communities and a sobering message to people nationwide: we must place the protection of safety, health and welfare at the forefront of our nations; priorities. To do anything less could lead to a far greater tragedy than the one witnessed in New Orleans. (ASCE-1) Page 26 SWEDEN – WESTERN HARBOUR, MALMO Malmo has a population of 270,000 the third largest city in Sweden. Gothenburg at 500,000 is the second largest and Stockholm at 800,000 the largest. Many people live in Malmo and commute to Copenhagen to work, approximately 40,000 per day. Western Harbour was the site of the Lickums Mechanical Works established in the 1870’s. Gradually over the years, land was reclaimed for expansion of industry in the area. In 1987 the shipyard at Western Harbour was closed down and 30,000 jobs were lost. Saab-Scania moved in to build cars. In 1990 Saab –Scania merged with General Motors and the factory subsequently closed completely and the land and buildings were bought by the City of Malmo in 1996. The area was transformed into a trade fair and conference facilities and in 2001 Bo01 European Housing exhibition opened. Bo01 = to live the earth 01. This area of the Western Harbour set the standard for the whole of the Western Harbour with its quality programmed, high standards for public areas and large variety of developers. All sites will be developed over the next few years. Once fully developed the entire area will hold roughly 1,300 homes and over 2,000 inhabitants. In 2003 the City of Malmo formulated a program for the Western Harbour as a supplement to the Comprehensive Plan for Malmo. Containing a strong combination of housing, businesses and educational premises, the development is set on waterways and emphasizes access to the sea via walkways and connections between the buildings. Figure 15 Western Harbour, Malmo – Central Core Multiple developers have built at varying times but each site integrates together with walkway connections encouraging outdoor movement and allows many opportunities to look out from homes onto passages and walkways with glimpses to the sea. A high proportion of each development contains rental flats and the lower level units along the waterfront have a commercial component. Adjacent to the residential areas is allowance for industry and it has attracted a number of new businesses to the area. Approximately 6,000 people already work in the area. Malmo University is also based in the Western Harbour, with student accommodation provided in the residential sites. Page 27 The area encompasses over 140 ha of reclaimed land. The material on site was removed and treated for contaminants and then replaced insitu. Climate Change Impacts - Sea Level Rise There is no storm surge along the waterfront area due to minimal tide differential. The predominant wind however blows in off the sea. The canals are interlinked which assists with absorbing any rise in levels. The foreshore area required beaching to prevent erosion from wave movement and due to popularity of the area newly constructed swimming pontoons provide increased access to the foreshore. The impacts of Climate Change in relation to Sea Level Rise including rain and groundwater factors are yet to be quantified for the development area. Research is yet to commence by the City of Malmo. Planning for Climate Change - Sea Level Rise New building works are specified at 3.0m above sea level. Mapping indicates that there will be impacts on the City due to sea level rise. Refer to Google Map base. Construction Methods Construction down 12m to bedrock and current levels floor levels are a minimum 2.5m above sea level. Figure 16 Western Harbour, Malmo – Foreshore Revetment Works Information and Research In Malmo the City is adapting to climate changes like extreme precipitation and drought through two EU-financed projects – GreenClimeAdapt and GRaBS. Page 28 The aim of GreenClimeAdapt is to demonstrate how cities can address and adapt to impacts of climate change (including increased rainfall and urban heat island) via green tools including open stormwater management, the use of green facades and green roofs. Green and Blue Space Adaptation in Urban Areas and Eco Towns (GRaBS) consists of 14 project partners representing eight countries and its aim is to raise awareness and increase the expertise of how green and blue infrastructure can help new and existing mixed use development adapt to projected climate change scenarios such as considerable sea level rise. Both the City of Malmo, Sweden and Borough of Sutton, UK whom we visited on this tour are partners. GRaBS recognizes that the implications of sea level rise will have significant implication for the City of Malmo. They will be working closely with the Klapeda University Coastal Research and Planning Institute in Lithuania to assess the risk and vulnerabilities of se level rise across Europe and develop adaptation action plans. (GRaBS 2009) Guidelines and Standards The City of Malmo’s City Planning Office is responsible for the planning, building notifications, demolition and land permissions. The future plan for the City is described in the comprehensive plan. The detailed plan states what the land may be used for and the property plan shows land parceling. Today all planning operations are focusing on issues of sustainability, where the overriding concepts are: economic, social and ecologic sustainability. Applicability Potentially applicable to the City of Greater Geelong for proposed redevelopment along foreshore zones. E.g. current development of the Rippleside shipyards and proposed new residential development of the Stocklands site in Point Lonsdale. Malmo is in transition from being an industrial city to a City of Knowledge, very similar to Geelong whose economy was founded on manufacturing – Ford, Shell, Alcoa and is expanding into technology and education – Deakin University. Page 29 SWEDEN – HAMMERBY, STOCKHOLM We visited the new development at Hammerby, managed via a three way partnership between the City of Stockholm and two other separate companies. Hammarbysjostad = lake city = city by the lake. The City of Stockholm has a population of 800,000 in the central municipality with the greater Stockholm area 1.4M. The City of Stockholm is located on a number of islands and increased development pressure around the old harbour areas for residential purposes has led to the redevelopment of areas that were originally used for heavy industry but are now no longer used for that purpose. Approximately 12-13 years ago the Hammerby site was used for industry and then reverted to a vacant Brownfield site taken over by squatters. The site was chosen for redevelopment based on its central location to the central city area of Stockholm. All of the existing hazardous materials located on the site were treated and retained onsite, including 120M cubic metres of oil/grease and heavy metals. The treated material was used for filling low areas and building of the ski slope. The island itself is on bedrock and much of it was excavated for underground parking. The proposed development will have a total population of 26,000 with 11,000 jobs to be created, therefore a mix of commercial and residential dwellings with active frontages to the street. The objective is to live and work in the same location. The split of properties is 50:50 owned versus rental. The City of Stockholm built the roads and infrastructure and Developers the buildings. There are 25 Developers on the site and each is required to sign contracts for environmental programs and comply with requirements. Overall 4b SEK (Swedish kroner 1SEK = $4AUS) invested, including relocating some industries. The return on investment from sale of land and also when connected to services, i.e. water and sewer, will be approximately 3b SEK return therefore incurred costs of over 1b SEK over 20 years. This is likely to be offset by taxes received. 75% of the environmental targets set were met by infrastructure works and incorporated into the buildings rather than having to change behaviour of residents and users, thus making it easy for people to live here. The site has made world wide interest therefore the GlasshusEtt Environmental information centre was built for Hammerby to accommodate 56-57,000 visitors per year over the last 3 years from all over the world. Figure 17 Hammerby, Stockholm – sustainable transport Page 30 Climate Change Impacts - Sea Level Rise In Stockholm the land is actually rising following the release of pressure on the land during the ice age and is calculated at 10mm per year. Sea level rise still has an impact but is slightly compensated by the rise in land levels. Figure 18 Hammerby, Stockholm – Foreshore development Planning for Climate Change - Sea Level Rise Current Specified Floor Level’s for the Hammerby site are 0.5m above Sea Level. Note one area initially developed at the Hammerby site will be impacted by Sea Level Rise having not taken these criteria into account. The remaining areas have taken potential Sea Level Rise into account in the design. Mapping indicates that there will be impacts on the City due to sea level rise. Refer to Google Map base. The City of Stockholm is working with the climate issue and intends to be fossil fuel free in 2050. Stockholm has been designated Europe’s first environmental capital in 2010 in competition with 35 of Europe’s cities thanks to a decade’s long work on climate and the environment and setting the scene for the future. The City of Stockholm has reduced emissions of 5.3 tonnes per capita in 1990 to 4.0 tonnes in 2005, a decrease of 25 percent. They aim to reduce greenhouse emissions to 3 tonnes per capita in 2015. Construction Methods As noted the island is on bedrock and the buildings piled down to solid base. Materials used on the buildings include products manufactured with a high percentage of recycled content or obtained from renewal resources. Page 31 Figure 19 Hammerby, Stockholm – Residential development Information and Research The City of Stockholm climate adaptation program is divided into four themes: Strategy, monitoring and development Measures to reduce emissions; coordinate, inspire and implement measures Locating and coordinating funding to implement measures Community City of Stockholm’s climate and climate change actions Guidelines and Standards The City of Stockholm’s environmental goals and guidelines for Hammarby cover the areas of: Land usage Transportation Building materials Energy Water & Sewage Waste Applicability Potentially applicable to reuse and transformation of Brownfield sites within the City of Greater Geelong into attractive residential areas with beautiful parks and green public spaces. Page 32 UK – GREENWICH, MILLENIUM VILLAGE We met with Samantha Moreira from Greenwich City Council, planner responsible for strategic work on the Greenwich Millennium Village. The population of Greenwich is currently 200,000 and is planned to grow to over 300,000. Greenwich as a council has the longest frontage to the Thames. Flood risk assessments are undertaken for all new areas to be developed. These are reviewed by The Environment Agency who is responsible for stormwater and river management, including the Thames Barrier and surface water quality measures. The original site of Greenwich Millennium Village (GMV) was mostly industry and gas works. The total area of land rehabilitated between the Millennium Dome and GMV will contain over 10,000 dwellings and 300 square km of commercial development when completed. East of Woolwich is land managed by the Royal Arsenal artillery range for over 300 years. This use ceased after WWII and the land has been decontaminated and earmarked for future development. A competition was run in 1997 to develop the GMV site and was won by Ralph Erskin (Swedish), who prepared the original master plan. Country side properties and English Partnerships then took over GMV. The original plan had 1777 units; there will actually be 3000 units by the time phase 5 is completed. Phases 1 and 2 are completed with the city square near completion bringing the population to 1095. Facilities include a nursery, community centre, energy centre, car parking, offices, light commercial and retail. The phase two commercial facilities provide a face to the village. Figure 20 Greenwich Millennium Village – Residential development Climate Change Impacts - Sea Level Rise Risk assessment of the site indicates that flooding is not an issue. This is based on the current protection offered to the site via the Thames Barrier and the levels at which the site has been built. Page 33 Planning for Climate Change - Sea Level Rise The site is dependent on the protection provided by the Thames Barrier. Refer to the following section on the Barrier. The property contains its own cogeneration site where water heated for circulation throughout the buildings includes provision of bicycle storage; cars are little used given the excellent public transport opportunities available. The roads are constructed to provide dedicated bus lanes and the transport authority is extending the rail line to provide access to the site via the London Underground network. Construction Methods Almost one-sixth of the Greenwich Peninsula is given over to parkland and public open space. This includes three main areas of award-winning parkland - the Central, Southern and Ecology Parks - and 2.2km of river walkways along the route of the Thames Path. The scenic walk offers views of the salt marsh terracing introduced on the riverside. Nearly 900 homes have already been built at Greenwich Millennium Village. Figure 21 Greenwich Millennium Village – Residential development on wetlands Information and Research The Environment Agency (EA) is the leading public body for protecting and improving the environment in England and Wales. It's their job to make sure that air, land and water are looked after by everyone in today's society, so that tomorrow's generations inherit a cleaner, healthier world. The Environment Agency has a clear role, as well as expertise on the ground, in helping local authorities address the climate risks from increased flooding (fluvial, coastal and from urban drainage), increased water scarcity and drought, waster management and conserving freshwater biodiversity. It sees itself taking a leading role in limiting and preparing for the impacts of climate change. Page 34 EA staff are working with Local authorities to promote climate change adaptation in local Area Agreements, a new government initiative which set out how a local area will improve over the next three years (EA Aug 2008). To help local government assess these risks the Local Government Association LGA, Environment Agency and United Kingdom Climate impacts Program (UKCIP) have jointly produced the guidance “be aware be prepared take action’. Table 1 page 9 extracted from the guide highlights key areas in relation to flooding, impacts, local authority policy response and guidance. ISSUE IMPACT / RISK LOCAL AUTHORITY POLICY RESPONSE GUIDANCE Inland flooding (fluvial) The risk of inland flooding in the 2080s is expected to increase by between approximately four and six times over present levels as a result of increased rainfall. Rigorously apply ‘Planning policy statement 25 (PPS25): development and flood risk’. PPS25 and practice guide. There are 1.6m people living currently at risk of flood (greater than 1:75 year occurrence). This could rise to 2.4m by 2080. Urban drainage (overwhelming of urban drainage systems by intense rainfall) 81,700 properties at risk from 1:10 year event from urban flooding. Could be in the order of 300,000 properties plus by the 2080s. Floodline Ensure that LDF’s are aligned to catchment flood management plans (CFMP). £130bn worth of property currently at risk from coastal flooding and 100,000 properties in areas that, without protection, could be eroded. By the 2080’s, 3.4m people at risk. Flood maps Raise awareness with households. Develop a surface water management plan. (Swamps) Sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDS) Flooding to towns and cities from surface water and urban drainage currently costs the national economy £270m Coastal flooding CFMP guidance Improving surface water drainage PPS25 and practice guide Designing for exceedance in urban drainage CIRIA Environment Agency Ensure that shoreline management plans (SMP) are aligned to local development frameworks (LDF) PPS25 and practice guide Floodline Flood maps Raise awareness with households. Integrated coastal zone management Shoreline management Page 35 plan guidance Guidelines and Standards Local planning conditions are covered by Unitary Development Plan (UDP) under the Town and Country Planning Act. Above the UDP for the Municipality is the Greater London Authority (GLA) which has strategic directives. E.g.; development on the river greater than 150 lots; exceeding a certain height or greater than 1000sqm commercial space; is to be referred to GLA for approval. The GLA designates sites for employment areas, residential areas, vitality and viability of commercial areas as well as preservation of open space. GMV was one of these identified sites. Planning Policy Statement 25: Development and Flood Risk Practice Guide – (Communities and Local Government 2006) is about positive planning at all levels to deliver appropriate sustainable development in the right places, taking full account of flood risk. PPS25 sets out the policy approach. The practice guide explains further how to implement this approach. English Partnerships published the Urban Design Compendium in 2000 in partnership with The Housing Corporation. This set out the key principles of urban design along with guidance and case studies explaining how these could be applied in practice. http://www.urbandesigncompendium.co.uk/ Applicability Potential waterfront sites in Geelong can take advantage of the way development has been undertaken in the form of public private partnerships method to deliver a sustainable neighbourhood. Figure 22 Greenwich Millennium Village – Residential development Page 36 UK – GREENWICH, THAMES BARRIER Whilst at Greenwich we viewed the Thames Barrier, completed in 1983 to protect London upstream of the barrier from storm surges and inundation, it has been used 107 times. It is anticipated by 2030 it will need to be closed 30 times a year to maintain the current standard of tidal defense. Figure 23 The Thames Barrier, London Climate Change Impacts - Sea Level Rise London has been flooded many times. Reports of floods in the capital go back as far as an AngloSaxon chronicle of 1099. In London, records show that the high tide level at London Bridge has risen by about 75cm each century. The increase in sea levels is accelerated by global warming. Locally, the British Isles is tilting towards Europe, causing the south of England to sink at an estimated rate of 30cm per century. This is a natural geologic process, also contributing to the rising river levels in the Thames. The River Thames itself is much narrower than it used to be. As the population of London increases and the city expands, more and more of the floodplain is built upon. The major flood threat to central London is from ‘surge tides’. These are humps of water created by zones of low pressure, originating off the Canadian coast, which cross the Atlantic at 80-100 km per hour. Usually these surges pass north of Britain, but northerly winds can drive them across the North Sea where, funneling towards the Strait of Dover, they cause flooding on the surrounding coasts and along the banks of the tidal Thames. Planning for Climate Change - Sea Level Rise The Barrier protects four hundred thousand properties in London that would be at risk from flooding if it were not in place; 45 square miles including 26 tube stations and 1.25 million people in the city who work below the average high tide. The Barrier was designed to protect London from flooding until at least the year 2030, according to current estimates of rising sea levels. The Environment Agency is however planning for the time beyond this date, around 2070, as sea levels are not rising as predicted. (Thames Barrier Project Pack, Environment Agency UK). Construction Methods The river at the Barrier is 520m wide. There are two abutments and nine piers across the river supporting 10 gates; Rising Sectors gates - four gates 61m wide and two smaller gates 30m wide that are raised to allow shipping to pass. When raised the gates are 15m high. Falling radial gates – four Page 37 gates 31m wide that rest at water level. Total weight 51,000 tonnes. Each gate is operated from one end by electrically driven oil-hydraulic machinery. The electric power is backed up by three diesel generators. Normally the barrier can be in full closure position in approximately 15 minutes. The Thames Barrier is not the only protection; it is an integral part of an overall flood defense system along the Thames. There is a drop down barrier at Barking. The river has over 200 miles of protective wall and embankments, some of which date back hundreds of years. Figure 24 the Thames Barrier, London Information and Research The Environment Agency acknowledge that rises in sea level, increased rainfall and storm frequency mean that London and the Thames Estuary will be at greater risk from flooding in the future once the current barrier expires. They are developing a tidal flood risk management plan for London and the Thames estuary for the next 100 years – Thames Estuary 2100. Guidelines and Standards Planning Policy Statement 25: Development and Flood Risk Practice Guide – (Communities and Local Government 2006) is about positive planning at all levels to deliver appropriate sustainable development in the right places, taking full account of flood risk. PPS25 sets out the policy approach. The practice guide explains further how to implement this approach. Applicability Potentially applicable to river flooding of the Barwon and Moorabool Rivers within the City of Greater Geelong. These areas currently have telemetry flood warning systems attached to existing pump systems. The Barwon River in Geelong and Barwon Heads is bound by a series of levees and flood walls to protect existing residential and industrial properties. The area of Barwon Heads is the most likely area susceptible to sea level rise impacts being located at the river mouth to Bass Straight. A barrier constructed on the river is unlikely to be approved given the environmental impacts particularly where part of the river flows through a Ramsar protected site. However, application of planning policies to provide for flood overlays and specified building overlays in the planning scheme will protect future development. Page 38 ADAPTATION OUTCOMES AND FUTURE IMPLICATIONS It is apparent that major cities have to come to terms with less available land to develop or land that is located in areas less desirable due to a number of constraints. Renewal of older areas built to past standards and rebuilding to current standards allows for increased protection from climate changes as well as the ability to incorporate innovation and sustainability concepts. To succeed under a changing climate, individuals, organizations and governments will all have to make significant changes in both policy and practice. Climate Change Impacts Sea level rise and storm surge are major impacts on all Cities with foreshore frontage. The Sea Change phenomenon is not new; populations all migrate to the coast whether for amenity, food, employment or the environment. As noted 23% of the world population lives within 100km of the coast. Global sea level rise is projected by the IPCC (2007) to be 18-59 cm by 2100. Recent predictions for Victoria have recommended 80cm and research in areas of Europe have recommended 1m as the likely figure. One thing is certain, sea level rise will continue beyond 2100. Increased temperatures, reduced resources, increased population, deteriorating infrastructure are all predicted and therefore we must plan to adapt to a changing world environment. Planning for Climate Change I refer back the IPCC table with the three actions for adaptability – protect, accommodate or retreat. Each of the Cities visited were focused on some form of climate change adaptation. This ranged from policy change at the higher level to individual change by residents. Many countries are now working together to plan for climate change. New developments must be designed to cope with future rather than historical climates. Adaptation to climate change means learning to live with more extreme weather events and changing weather patterns, and preparing for other changes that are unavoidable. Construction Methods Efficient use of available resources and sourcing material from renewable sources or reusing materials has become a higher priority for many locations. Consideration of risk in the decision making process where major construction of infrastructure is proposed versus non structural measures to manage the risk. Information and Research On line data was difficult to locate with specific reference to sea level rise given this is only one impact of climate change. Where increased carbon emissions are of greater concern given that this is understood as the main cause of climate change. The Cities are positive about the impact they can have and a number of them are collaborating on joint projects to undertake research, education and actions to adapt to climate change. For example GRaBS, the Cities of Malmo and Sutton. Page 39 Guidelines and Standards Each city has developed a number of guidelines and standards to inform and direct new development to ensure sustainable development. Recent amendments to the Planning and Environment Act 1987 Section 12 (2) (a) Direction 13 December 2008, sets out the general requirements for consideration of the impacts of climate change within coastal Victoria as part of an amendment which would have the effect of allowing non-urban land to be used for an urban use and development. Applicability The City of Geelong can use much of what is being applied around the world in our developing inner urban areas. The impact of climate change given our coastal location, increases our susceptibility to sea level rise. Planning therefore for the future is imperative to protect the future residents of our community. The City of Greater Geelong is also a partner in the Future Coasts program led by the Victorian Government to assess the physical vulnerability of Victoria’s coast to climate change, and develop strategies to help communities and industry adapt. Page 40 BIBILIOGRAPHY American Society of Civil Engineers, 2007. 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Woodroffe, 2007: Coastal systems and low-lying areas. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 315-356. Thames Barrier Information and Learning Centre. The Thames Barrier Project Pack 2008. Victorian Government, Melbourne. Climate Change and Infrastructure: planning ahead. State of Victoria, Department of Sustainability and Environment 2006. Victorian Government, Melbourne. Managing coastal hazards and the coastal impacts of climate change, General Practice Note December 2008. The State of Victoria Department of Planning and Community Development 2008. Page 41