Download Climate change and conflict

Climate change and conflict
Climate change and conflict
Russian International Studies Association, Moscow, 26 September 2008
Nils Petter Gleditsch
Centre for the Study of Civil War (CSCW), International peace Research
Institute, Oslo (PRIO) &
Department of Sociology and Political Science, Norwegian University of
Science and Technology, Trondheim (NTNU)
President, International Studies Association
Climate change and conflict
Armed conflicts 1946–2007
Climate change and conflict
Battle deaths, 1900–2005
1946–2005
5,000,000
800,000
4,000,000
600,000
3,500,000
500,000
3,000,000
400,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
300,000
1,500,000
200,000
1,000,000
100,000
500,000
0
0
1946
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
1900
1903
1906
1909
1912
1915
1918
1921
1924
1927
1930
1933
1936
1939
1942
1945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
Annual
Annualbattle
battledeaths
death
4,500,000
700,000
Intrastate
conflict
Internal conflict
International
conflict
international
conflict
Climate change and conflict
The growth of the liberal factors
500
450
400
Percent of 1973 level
350
Democracy
Trade/GDP
IGOs
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003
Climate change and conflict
Enter climate change:
Are we heading towards disaster?
•
Future scenario of warring states and massive social disturbance as a result of climate change
(Schwart & Randall, 2003; think-tank report for the Pentagon)
•
Climate change can act as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of
the world and this is a major national security challenge for the US (CNA, 2007; statement by 11
retired US generals and admirals)
•
The impacts of climate change, such as crop failure and lingering drought, sea-level changes, and
river basin degradation go to the heart of the security agenda (Foreign Minister Margaret Beckett in
the UN Security Council, April 2007)
•
Climate change is an “all-encompassing threat” to human health, to global food supply, and to
peace and security (Kofi Annan, 2006)
•
Darfur is the first of many climate wars (Jan Egeland and Ban Ki-Moon on various occasions in
2007-08)
•
Climate change “may induce large-scale migration and lead to greater competition for the earth’s
resources”, which may result in “increased danger of violent conflicts and wars, within and between
states” (Ole Danbolt Mjøs, Chair of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, 2007)
Climate change and conflict
Global
Globalwarming
warmingand
andarmed
armedconflict,
conflict,1946–2006
1946–89
Temperature deviation from global mean, 1951–80. Source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), Columbia University Frequency of armed
conflict. Source: UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset.
Climate change and conflict
Physical consequences of climate change
•
•
•
•
Melting of glaciers and polar ice
Sea-level rise
Changes in precipitation
Increased natural hazards (floods, droughts, hurricanes)
Climate change and conflict
Possible social consequences
•
•
•
•
•
Increased vulnerability to physical environment
Increased exposure to health hazards
Destruction of traditional livelihoods
Extensive environmental migration
Decreased predictability
= Security issue by an extended definition
Warrants the attention of the Security Council
Climate change and conflict
But it is an important factor in future conflict?
• Disconnect between NGO, politicians, and think-tank
literature and peer-reviewed research
• Somewhat more cautious studies from defense and
environment agencies
• IPCC
· science: peer-reviewed
· social implications: more questionable
· conflict: flimsy sources
• The Stern report hints at conflict; same weakness
• There is very little peer-reviewed research on the issue
Climate change and conflict
Possible pathways to conflict
• Sea-level rise  migration  conflict in host areas
Drought
• Flooding
Hurricanes
resource competition  local conflict
lower state capacity  rebel opportunity
Strong version of the neomalthusian model: resource scarcity  conflict
Climate change and conflict
Counterarguments to the conflict scenarios
•
The link between scarcity and conflict is almost completely limited to case studies
•
Statistical, comparative analyses have not converged on a robust association
between renewable resource scarcity and armed conflict
•
Predictions of new conflicts are dependent on general relationships
•
Migration  conflict in host areas, but probably as a result of ’imported conflict’
•
Analyses of disasters and conflict suggest a connection, but mostly for geological
disasters, and mechanisms unclear
•
And there are exceptions, such as Aceh
•
Impending scarcities are often handled by substitution, innovation, cooperation,
and the market
•
Water literature has moved from ’water wars’ to ’water cooperation’
•
Climate change is generally a slow process; this points to adaptation
Climate change and conflict
The
'Bottom
Billion'
The 'bottom
billion'
Armed
conflicts
in 2006
- and armed conflict in 2006
Climate change and conflict
Vicious cycle?
•
•
•
•
•
•
Climate change  conflict  climate change
War has a negative impact on the environment
Nuclear winter
Armed forces major user of fossile fuels
However, one study shows: war  lower CO2 emissions
Gleditsch/Cappelen/Bjerkholt (1994): Disarmament  lower
CO2 emissions
• On the whole, probably less important
Climate change and conflict
Priorities
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•
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•
•
•
•
•
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Disaggregate the climate-conflict debate
Couple models of climate changes to models of conflict
Collect better data on violence (one-sided, non-state)
Collect geo-referenced data
Look at interactions between climate change and political and
economic factors
Balance negative and positive effects (e.g. food)
Integrate consequences of climate changes with other
economic and social changes
Calculate costs of reversing climate change vs. mitigation
Focus on the most important consequences
Climate change and conflict
Conclusions
• Climate change is a major challenge
• Climate change is a security issue
• There is little evidence to date that armed conflict is an
important consequence
• Analysis does not depend on the causes of climate change
• But countermeasures do
• Policy measures also depend on the consequences
• More research on climate change and conflict is a priority
• The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report should include conflict