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Operationalising Coping Ranges climate sensitivity, coping ranges and risk AIACC Training Workshop on Adaptation and Vulnerability TWAS, Trieste June 3-14 2002 Roger N. Jones Atmospheric Research Choices • Roundtable of project needs regards coping ranges, thresholds, climate risk and uncertainty management • Choosing climate variables/sensitivity relationships (exercise) • How to construct thresholds • Structure of climate probabilities (variability and change, short exercise) • Case studies – hot cows (heat stress and adaptation) – water resources (Monte Carlo uncertainty and Bayesian analysis – risk as a function of global warming Atmospheric Research Sensitivity to what? Sector Sensitivity to what? Water Rainfall variability, flood, drought Agriculture ENSO, flood, drought, cool/hot extremes, storms Health Hot/wet conditions, temperature extremes, violent storms, floods, crop and water shortages Coasts Storm surges, wind/wave climates, pressure extremes, tidal extremes Biodiversity Fire, flood, drought, storms Atmospheric Research Linking climate to impacts Climate system Impacted activity Socioeconomic system Current climate Current adaptations Future climate Future adaptations Atmospheric Research 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 1 3 2 1 2 2 1 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 3 3 2 1 3 1 1 1 3 8 24 23 29 28 11 18 13 17 14 24 27 20 27 2 Health 2 3 2 Waste 2 2 1 3 2 1 1 2 Industry, coal & power 2 3 1 2 1 Air quality Dryland/irrigation salinity Harbour Coastal water supply Beach 2 2 3 3 2 2 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 2 1 1 1 2 Marine (esp. fisheries) Horses 1 1 2 1 2 1 3 2 3 3 Urban infrastructure 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 Forest & biodiversity 2 1 2 2 2 River management 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 Wine 1 2 3 3 1 2 2 2 Cropping 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 Inland water supply 1 3 Grazing Rainfall - average Rainfall - extreme Rainfall - variability Drought Temperature - average Temperature - max Temperature - min CO2 Cloud Pressure Humidity Wind Evaporation Soil moisture Stream flow Flood Watertable Water salinity Irrigation Sea level Storm surge Waves Lightning Hail Fire Dairy Poultry Cross impacts analysis 2 2 1 1 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 3 2 3 3 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 30 9 14 18 16 21 30 23 28 20 24 16 11 3 1 10 16 10 20 17 29 12 17 13 12 7 8 3 7 12 Workshop Report (example) Worked example in MS Excel® Atmospheric Research Cross impacts analysis Climate and related variables (forcing) Activities (sensitivity) High Rainfall - extreme Flood Drought Temperature - max Rainfall - variability Rainfall - average Temperature - average Soil moisture Urban infrastructure Cropping Wine River management Forest & biodiversity Inland water supply Dairy Grazing Dryland/irrigation salinity Moderate Stream flow Water salinity Temperature - min Wind Irrigation Watertable Sea level Fire CO2 Humidity Evaporation Industry, coal & power Marine (esp. fisheries) Coastal water supply Health Harbour Waste Beach Horses Low Waves Storm surge Hail Cloud Lightning Pressure Air quality Poultry Atmospheric Research Uncertainty explosion Emission scenarios Global climate sensitivity Regional changes Climate variability Biophysical impacts Socio-economic impacts Atmospheric Research Uncertainty explosion Emission scenarios Global climate sensitivity Regional variability Biophysical impacts Socio-economic impacts Atmospheric Research Likelihood Probability can be expressed in two ways: 1. Return period / frequency-based (Climate variability) 2. Single event (Mean climate change, one-off events) Atmospheric Research Return period / frequency-based probability Recurrent or simple event Where a continuous variable reaches a critical level, or threshold. Eg. Extreme temperature (max & min), Extreme rainfall, heat stress, 1 in 100 year flood Discrete or complex event An event caused by a combination of variables (an extreme weather event) Eg. tropical cyclone/hurricane/typhoon, ENSO event Atmospheric Research Frequency-based probability distributions Atmospheric Research Single-event probability Singular or unique event An event likely to occur once only. Probability refers to the chance of an event occurring, or to a particular state of that event when it occurs. Eg. Climate change, collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, hell freezing over Atmospheric Research What is the probability of climate change? 1. Will climate change happen? • IPCC (2001) suggests that climate change is occurring with a confidence of 66% to 90% 2. What form will it take? Uncertainties are due to: • future rates of greenhouse gas emissions • sensitivity of global climate to greenhouse gases • regional variations in climate • decadal-scale variability • changes to short-term variability Atmospheric Research Range of uncertainty M1 UNQUANTIFIABLE UNCERTAINTY M2 M3 M4 QUANTIFIABLE RANGE OF UNCERTAINTY UNQUANTIFIABLE UNCERTAINTY TOTAL RANGE OF UNCERTAINTY Atmospheric Research CO2 emissions and concentrations Atmospheric Research Simulated global warming: A2 Atmospheric Research Global warming Atmospheric Research Group exercise - estimating joint probabilities • Take a gold coin (preferably 1 pound coin) • Heads represents low end (1.4°C), tails represents high end (5.8°C) • Flip coin 7 times and record the number of heads and tails • Which outcome is most likely? Atmospheric Research Risk exercise - conclusion • Give coin to greedy presenter Atmospheric Research Probabilistic structure of climate uncertainties Variable(s) Critical threshold Critical threshold Planning horizon Time Atmospheric Research Placing thresholds within scenario uncertainty A B global climate sensitivity emission scenarios regional variability range of possible impacts Atmospheric Research Impact thresholds 4.0 3.5 Global Warming (°C) Threshold examples & workshop synthesis 3.0 2.5 2.0 Threshold A 1.5 1.0 0.5 Threshold B 0.0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Year Atmospheric Research Metrics for measuring costs • • • • • Monetary losses (gains) Loss of life Change in quality of life Species and habitat loss Distributional equity Atmospheric Research System responses • Resistance (e.g. seawall) • Resilience (e.g. regrowth, rebuilding after storm or fire) • Adaptation (adjustments made in response to stress) • Transformation (old system stops, new one starts) • Cessation (activity stops altogether) Atmospheric Research Hot cows and heat stress THI between 72 and 78 THI between 79 and 88 mild stress moderate stress THI between 89 and 98 THI above 98 severe stress DEAD COWS! Atmospheric Research Frequency of exceeding heat index threshold Threshold examples & workshop synthesis 90.0 THI Units 80.0 THI78 THI72 70.0 60.0 50.0 1/10/98 31/10/98 30/11/98 30/12/98 29/01/99 28/02/99 30/03/99 Date Atmospheric Research Production effects Powerpoint THI between 72 and 78 Report mild stress no stress THI between 79 and 88 moderate stress mild stress Atmospheric Research Coral bleaching • Caused by SST above a threshold • Expels xosanthellae algae • Severity related to days above bleaching threshold • Corals may recover or die Atmospheric Research Macquarie River Catchment Macquarie Marshes Major Areas of Abstraction Burrendong Dam Macquarie R Contributing Area Area ~ 75,000 km2 P = 1000 to <400 mm. Major dams: Burrendong and Windamere Water demands: irrigation agriculture; Macquarie Marshes; town supply Most flow from upper catchment runoff Most demand in the lower catchment Windamere Dam Atmospheric Research Ranges of seasonal rainfall change for the MDB Summer Winter -40 -20 0 20 Rainfall Change (%) 40 2030 2070 Autumn Spring -40 -20 0 20 Rainfall Change (%) 40 Atmospheric Research P and Ep changes for Macquarie catchment Change for 1ºC global warming (%) 16.0 8.0 0.0 -8.0 -16.0 J F M A M J Evaporation (Ep) J A S O N D Rainfall (P) In change per degree global warming Atmospheric Research Changes to MAF for 9 models in 2030 (%) Based on IPCC 2001 Low Mid 0 0 -8 -8 High 0 -10 -16 -16 -20 -24 -30 B1 at 1.7°C 0.55°C A1 at 2.5°C 0.91°C A1T at 4.2°C 1.27°C Atmospheric Research Climate change – flow relationship flow = a ( atan (Ep / P ) – b Standard error < 2% Atmospheric Research Sampling strategy • The range of global warming in 2030 was 0.55– 1.27°C with a uniform distribution. The range of change in 2070 was 1.16–3.02°C. • Changes in P were taken from the full range of change for each quarter from the sample of nine climate models. • Changes in P for each quarter were assumed to be independent of each other • The difference between samples in any consecutive quarter could not exceed the largest difference observed in the sample of nine climate models. • Ep was partially dependent on P (dEp = 5.75 – 0.53dP, standard error = 2.00, randomly sampled using a Gaussian distribution) Atmospheric Research Potential evaporation change (%) Changes to Burrendong Dam storage 2030 Cumulative Probability (%) 15 -40 -30 -10 -20 <100 0 10 <95 5 10 <90 <80 <70 0 20 <60 -5 <50 -10 -5 0 5 10 Rainfall change (%) Atmospheric Research Potential evaporation change (%) Changes to bulk allocations for irrigation 2030 15 -30 -20 -10 Cumulative Probability (%) <100 10 <95 0 <90 5 <80 10 <70 0 <60 -5 <50 -10 -5 0 5 10 Rainfall change (%) Atmospheric Research Potential evaporation change (%) Changes to Macquarie Marsh inflows 2030 15 -40 -30 -20 -10 Cumulative Probability (%) <100 10 <95 0 <90 5 10 <80 <70 0 20 -5 <60 <50 -10 -5 0 5 10 Rainfall change (%) Atmospheric Research Probabilities of flow changes impacts view Range of possible outcomes Atmospheric Research Critical thresholds Macquarie River Catchment Irrigation 5 consecutive years below 50% allocation of water right Wetlands 10 consecutive years below bird breeding events Atmospheric Research Irrigation allocations and wetland inflows - historical climate and 1996 rules 100 Flow (Gl x 10) 80 1,000,000 60 40 100,000 20 10,000 1890 Irrigation allocation (%) 10,000,000 0 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 Year Allocations Marshes Atmospheric Research Threshold exceedance as a function of change in flow (irrigation) Sequences below threshold (years) 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Percent of total years below threshold +5% Change in mean average allocation 0 -10% -15% -30% -40% 1 1 -45% 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 6 12 1 2 2 4 5 7 38 50 2 1 5 10 1 4 13 2 1 6 11 22 23 34 1 4 1 6 4 1 5 1 2 4 58 64 Atmospheric Research Threshold exceedance as a function of change in flow (bird breeding) Sequences below threshold (years) 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Percent of total years below threshold +5% 0 Change in MAF -10% -15% -30% 1 1 1 1 1 1 -40% 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 -50% 1 2 2 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 4 4 1 2 1 7 3 1 2 3 4 7 1 3 4 2 5 2 4 3 2 3 40 45 52 56 63 2 1 2 3 1 1 3 1 1 3 71 79 Atmospheric Research Risk analysis results Macquarie 2030 Report DDR N or m a l FD R -10 -20 -30 C um u la tiv e P rob ability 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 20 10 0 -40 C ha nge in sup ply (% ) B u r ren d on g M a rsh es Irr ig ation Atmospheric Research Risk analysis results Macquarie 2070 DDR Normal FDR 100 90 Cumulative Probability 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 40 20 -20 0 -40 -60 -80 Change in supply (%) Burrendong Marshes Irrigation Atmospheric Research Bayesian analysis results Macquarie 2030 100 90 Cumulative Probability 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 Change in supply (%) Standard W&R warming All Atmospheric Research Bayesian analysis results Macquarie 2070 100 90 Cumulative Probability 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 Change in supply (%) Standard W&R warming All Atmospheric Research Characterising risk as a function of global warming The standard “7 step method” of impact assessment progresses from climate to impacts to adaptation. This infers that we must predict the likeliest climate before we can predict the likeliest impacts. Can we get around this limitation? Atmospheric Research Characterising risk There is another way. Impacts = function(Global warming) Impacts = function(global, local CC & CV ) p(impacts) = no. of scenarios > threshold = risk Atmospheric Research Risk exercise - estimating threshold exceedance: sea level rise • Recover coin from greedy presenter • Heads represents low end (9 cm), tails represents high end (88cm) • The group chooses two critical thresholds • Flip coin 7 times and record the number of heads and tails • Which outcome is most likely? Atmospheric Research 6 5 5 4 3 2 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 Frequency (%) 5 Probability of threshold exceedance 6 Global warming (°C) Global warming (°C) Characterising the risk of global warming 0 50 100 Frequency (%) Increasing likelihood of global warming Atmospheric Research 100 100 80 50 cm 25 cm Sea Level Rise (cm) Sea Level Rise (cm) 75 cm 80 75 cm 60 50 cm 40 25 cm 20 75 cm 60 50 cm 40 0 0 0 100 0 Probability (%) 75 cm 60 50 cm 40 25 cm 20 0 80 75 cm 60 50 cm 40 25 cm 20 0 0 5 10 Probability (%) 100 80 75 cm 60 50 cm 40 25 cm 20 0 0 100 Probability (%) Sea Level Rise (cm) 80 100 Probability (%) 100 Sea Level Rise (cm) 100 Sea Level Rise (cm) Sea Level Rise (cm) 100 25 cm 20 80 75 cm 60 50 cm 40 25 cm 20 0 0 5 10 Probability (%) 0 100 Probability (%) Characterising the risk of global warming 5 Global warming (°C) Probability of threshold exceedance 6 Risks to Large Negative Net Higher Many Increase for most Negative regions in all metrics 4 3 Markets + and - 2 1 Negative for some Risks to Some Increase regions 0 0 50 Frequency (%) Most people worse off Very low IV V 100 I I II III IV V II III Risks to unique and threatened systems Risks from extreme climate events Distribution of impacts Aggregate impacts Risks from large-scale discontinuities Atmospheric Research Long-term planning Short-term policy response 1. Enhance adaptive capacity so that the current coping range expands, reducing present vulnerability. 2. Develop this capacity in such a way that the longer-term risks to climate change are also reduced. Atmospheric Research Basic principles • Pay greater attention to recent climate experience. Link climate, impacts and outcomes to describe the coping range. • Address adaptation to climate variability and extremes as part of reducing vulnerability to longer-term climate change. • Assess risk according to how far climate change, in conjunction with other drivers of change, may drive activities beyond their coping range. • Focus on present and future vulnerability to ground future adaptation policy development in present-day experience. • Consider current development policies and proposed future activities and investments, especially those that may increase vulnerability. Atmospheric Research Foresighting your project • Visualise how you will present the results (graph, text, table, animation) • Rehearse how you will communicate the uncertainties • Anticipate questions upon presentation or review • How will you engage different stakeholders? Atmospheric Research