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6 Climate impacts on sectors and policies 6.1 Agriculture Notes: The document as it stands now is still largely a compilation of individual contributions of JEO and AI. The introduction will include text linking the different indicators. The current version includes some text from the 2008 report and the SOER that will be modifies as the new conclusions and key messages are defined. Water limitation indicator will be further developed. Some internal comments are included to seek advice from the advisory group. Comments welcome. All References are in Zotero group and zoterio citations will be included in this document. 6.1.1 Introduction The cultivation of crops, their productivity and quality, are directly dependant on different climatic factors. Climate change is already having an impact on agriculture (Peltonen-Sainio et al., 2010; Olesen et al., 2011), and has been attributed as one of the factors contributing to yield stagnation in wheat in parts of Europe (Brisson et al., 2010). Measuring current and future impacts of climate change on agriculture at the continental scale is a significant challenge, but there is growing scientific consensus that climate-induced changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services are occurring. Climate change is expected to continue to affect agriculture in the future (J.E. Olesen et al. 2011; Ana Iglesias et al. 2010), and the effects will vary greatly in space across Europe (M. Trnka, Olesen, et al. 2011; Ana Iglesias, Garrote, Diz, Schlickenrieder, y Martin-Carrasco 2011a), but they may also change over time (Miroslav Trnka, Eitzinger, et al. 2011). It is generally accepted that productivity will increase in Northern Europe due to a lengthened growing season and an extension of the frost free period (Olesen and Bindi, 2002; Trnka et al., 2011a; Iglesias et al., 2011b). In Southern Europe, the impact of climate change on agriculture is likely to affect the productivity of crops and their suitability in certain regions primarily due to extreme heat events and an overall expected reduction in precipitation and water availability (Bindi y Olesen 2010; A Iglesias, Quiroga, y Schlickenrieder 2010; Ana Iglesias et al. 2010). Variability in yields is expected generally to increase, both in Southern and Northern Europe, due to extreme climatic events and other factors, including pests and diseases (Kristensen et al., 2010; Ferrise et al., 2011; Moriondo et al., 2011). Adaptation choices are complex and priorities need to be established at the regional level to respond to specific risks and opportunities (Ana Iglesias, Garrote, Diz, Schlickenrieder, y Martin-Carrasco 2011a; Ana Iglesias, Quiroga, y Diz 2011). [Agriculture] 1 Intensive farming systems in western and central Europe generally have a low sensitivity to climate change, because a given change in temperature or rainfall have modest impact (Chloupek et al., 2004), and because the farmers have resources to adapt and compensate by changing management (Reidsma et al., 2010). However, there may be considerable difference in adaptive capacity between cropping systems and farms depending on their specialisation (Reidsma et al., 2008). Intensive systems in cool climates may therefore respond favourably to a modest climatic warming (Olesen and Bindi, 2002). On the other hand some of the farming systems currently located in hot and dry areas are expected to be most severely affected by climate change. There is a large variation across the European continent in climatic conditions, soils, land use, infrastructure, political and economic conditions. These differences are expected also to greatly influence the responsiveness to climatic change (Olesen et al., 2011; Trnka et al., 2011a). The indicators selected to evaluate the impact of climate change on agriculture include the rate of change of the crop growing season length, the timing of the cycle of agricultural crops (agrophenology), the size and variability in crop yield, the rate of change of the meteorological water balance, which indicates water requirements and water limitation of crops. The indicators have been chosen based on four key issues: (1) identification of the main drivers of agricultural change, (2) information needed to respond to adaptation policy questions, (3) availability of relevant data, and (4) their ability to clearly show past changes and indicate likely future trends. Table x summarises the 2 [Climate impacts on sectors and policies] Table X: Summary Agricultural Indicators Observations, Projections, Adaptation options (to be completed) Indicator Indicator key aspects Reasons for Concern Observations Projections Adaptation Growing season Rate of change of crop growing season length Implications for suitability of crop species/cultivars Growing Season is changing Likely increase in some parts of Europe Changes to crop species and cultivars Changes in management Agrophenology Changes in length of crop growth phases or onset Importance of conditions during growth phases Flowering is occurring earlier Shortening of crop growth phases Changes in crop cultivars Changes in management Yield-variability Yield changes due to climate change / climate events Food commodity and security implications Crop yield variability increases observed Increasing variability due to climate change Changes in crop cultivars, species Changes in management Water requirement (irrigation) Use proxy, rate of change of the meteorological water balance Potential changes in irrigation needs have to be taken into account in deciding appropriate crops and is relevant for irrigation infrastructure/ efficiency Mediterranean and parts of Central Europe experience an increase in the water required from irrigation Overall expected increases in temperature throughout Europe are likely to increase evapo-transpiration rates, thereby also increasing water requirements Water use efficiency, distribution efficiency Changes in management Water limitation of crops Crop yield limitation due to water Water as limiting factor in crop productivity; crop suitability implications Crop production is at least moderately water limited in many regions and especially in the south Crop water limitation is projected to worsen across the southern part of Europe Water use efficiency, distribution efficiency infrastructure improvements Changes in management [Agriculture] 3 6.1.2 Growing Season for Agricultural Crops Key messages Research indicates that the growing season of a number of agricultural crops in Europe is changing Studies have shown that the growing season in is likely to increase throughout most of Europe due to earlier onset of growth in spring and later senescence in autumn Relevance Increasing air temperatures are significantly affecting the duration of the growing season over large areas of Europe (Scheifinger et al., 2003). The duration of the growing season is for a large part of Europe defined by the duration of the period with temperatures above a certain threshold. In terms of the functioning of many plant species, e.g. for flowering, it is the duration of the frost-free period that is important. However, active growth of plants requires higher temperatures, and for most of the temperate crops grown in Europe a threshold temperature of 5 ºC can be used, although growing of tropical crops like maize and sorghum requires even higher temperatures (Trnka et al., 2011a). A warming of the climate is reported mainly to result in an earlier start of the growing season in spring and a longer duration in autumn (Jeong et al., 2011; Trnka et al., 2011c). A longer growing season allows the proliferation of species that have optimal conditions for growth and development and can thus increase their productivity or number of generations (e.g., crop yield, insect population). This will in many cases also allow for introduction of new species previously unfavourable due to low temperatures or short growing seasons. This is both relevant for introduction of new crops, but will also affect the spreading of weeds, insect pests and diseases (Roos et al., 2011). Changes in management practices, e.g. changes in the species grown, different varieties, or adaptations of the crop calendar, can counteract the negative effects of a changing growing season (pests) and capture the benefits (agricultural crops). Past trends Many studies report a lengthening of the period between the occurrence of the last spring frost and the first autumn frost. This has occurred in recent decades in several areas in Europe and more generally in the northern hemisphere (e.g., Root et al., 2003; Trnka et al., 2011c). Studies of changes in the growing season based on remote sensing shown a spatial pattern in Europe, with western continental areas showing last freeze dates getting earlier faster, some central areas having last freeze and first leaf dates progressing at about the same pace, while in parts of Northern and Eastern Europe first leaf dates are getting earlier faster than last freeze dates (Schwartz et al., 2006). Across all of Europe, the delay in end of the season of 4 [Climate impacts on sectors and policies] the period 1992-2008 by 8.2 days was more significant than the advanced start of the season by 3.2 days (Jeong et al, 2011). An analysis of the frost free period in Europe between 1975 and 2010 shows a general and clear increasing trend. The trend is not uniformly spread over Europe. The highest rates of change (larger than 0.8 days per year) were recorded in central and southern Spain, central Italy, along the Atlantic shores, and in the British Isles, Denmark, central parts of Europe and in Turkey (Map X1). The map in Figure 1 shows that there are also areas in Europe with an apparent trend for reductions in the frost free period. However, these trends are not significant. Map X1. The rate of change (number of days per year) of the number of frost-free days per year as actually recorded during the period 1975–2010. Projections Following the observed trends and in line with projections for additional temperature increase, a further lengthening of the growing season (both an earlier onset of spring and a delay of autumn) as well as a northward shift of species is projected. The latter is already widely reported (Aerts et al., 2006; Odgaard et al., 2011; Olesen et al., 2011). Results from [Agriculture] 5 climate change projections show that the date of last frost in spring will advance by about 510 days by 2030 and by 10-15 days by 2050 thoughout most of Europe (Trnka et al., 2011a). The extension of the growing season is expected to be of particular beneficial in northern Europe, where a longer duration for crop growth allows new crops to be cultivated and where water availability is not restricting growth (Olesen et al., 2011). I parts of the Mediterranean area, the cultivation of some crops will under a milder climate be shifted into the winter season (Minguez et al., 2007), which in these areas can offset some of the negative impacts of heatwaves and droughts during summer. Other areas of Europe such as Western France and parts of South-Eastern Europe (Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia, etc.) will experience yield reductions from hot and dry summers without the possibility of shifting the crop production into the winter seasons. Adaptation needs and options The main adaptations to changes in duration of the growing season and the start and end of the frost free season are changes in the crop species and varieties grown and the timing of crop management operations. A northward shift in cultivation of temperature sensitive species is therefore projected (Olesen et al., 2007). In particular, in southern Europe adaptations may include changes in crop species that relate to major changes in the timing of crop cultivations, e.g. replacing winter with spring wheat) (Minguez et al., 2007). In general, there will be changes in cultivars and sowing dates (e.g. for winter crops, sowing the same cultivar earlier, or choosing cultivars with a longer growth cycle; for summer irrigated crops, earlier sowing for preventing yield reductions or reducing water demand (Olesen et al.., 2007; Kaukoranta and Hakala, 2008). 6 [Climate impacts on sectors and policies] 6.1.3 Agrophenology Key messages Flowering of a number of different crops is occurring earlier A shortening of phases of crop growth in many crops can be expected, and this is particularly detrimental to grain yield for shortening of the grain filling phase Adaptation needs to include changes in management and potential changes in crop cultivars Relevance Changes in crop phenology provide important evidence of responses to recent regional climate change (Menzel et al., 2003). Although phenological changes are often influenced by management practices, in particular sowing date and choice of cultivar, recent warming in Europe has clearly advanced a significant part of the agricultural calendar. Specific stages of growth (e.g. flowering, grain filling) are particularly sensitive to weather conditions and critical for final yield. The timing of the crop cycle (agrophenology) determines the productive success of the crop. In general, a longer crop cycle is strongly correlated with higher yields, since a longer cycle permits maximum use of the available thermal energy, solar radiation and water resources. For cereals yields respond particularly to the duration of the grain filling period (Kristensen et al., 2011). The impacts of unfavourable meteorological conditions and extreme events vary considerably, depending on the timing of occurrence and the development stage of the crops. However, shortening of the growth period can also help avoid summer stress conditions in areas prone to drought. European farmers have already adapted their practices to the changing climate by selecting suitable varieties or adapting the crop calendar, and can be expected to do so increasingly in the future. Past trends Several studies have collected data and observed changes in the phenological phases of several perennial crops in Europe, such as the advance in the start of the growing season of fruit trees (2.3 days/10 years), cherry tree blossom (2.0 days/10 years), and apple tree blossom (2.2 days/10 years), in line with increases of up to 1.4 ºC in mean annual air temperature in Germany (Chmielewski et al., 2004). Sowing or planting dates of several agricultural crops have been advanced, by 5 days for potatoes in Finland, 10 days for maize and sugar beet in Germany and 20 days for maize in France (IPCC, 2007). [Agriculture] 7 An analysis of the modelled flowering date for winter wheat in Europe between 1975 and 2010 shows a general and clear increasing trend., which is most pronounced in northwestern Europe (Map X2). In large parts of Europe the modelled flowering date has advanced by more 0.3-0.5 days per year. This modelled advance in flowering date probably exceeds what is observed in practice, where day length responses in the plants and farmers choices of cultivars with longer growth duration will modify this response. Map X2. Modelled change of flowering date for winter wheat 1975-2010. Projections With the projected warming of the climate in Europe, further reductions in the number of days required for flowering in cereals (anthesis) and maturity may be expected throughout Europe (Fig X3). The modelled changes in flowering dates in Figure X3 include the expected effects of daylength reponse and changes in cultivar choice on flowering and maturity dates. The flowering date for winter wheat is projected to show the greatest advance in the western parts of Europe, but with a large uncertainty associated with the projected climate change. The advance in maturity date is larger than the advance in flowering date, leading to a shortening of the grain filling period, which will negatively affect yields. Semenov et al. (2009) used another phenology model and other climate change projections for 2050, but 8 [Climate impacts on sectors and policies] found similar changes in flowering date for winter wheat for England and Wales of 14-16 days. Figure X3. Model estimated mean change in dates of flowering and full maturation for winter wheat for the period 2031-50 compared with 1975-1994 for the KNMI and Hadley Centre (HC) climate model projections under the A1B scenario (Olesen et al., 2011). Adaptation needs and options The main adaptation option to changes in flowering and maturity dates are choice of sowing date for spring sown crops, and breeding of varieties with a longer growth duration, both for the phase until flowering and for the grain filling phase from flowering to maturity. [Agriculture] 9 6.1.4 Crop – yield variability (CLIM 032) Key messages Impact on regional crop suitability and productivity Extreme climatic events including droughts, floods, storms, have had a considerable impact on productivity during the first decade of the 21st century The intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, flooding and droughts is expected to increase and will necessitate relevant adaptation measures to reduce and prevent losses Relevance Crop yields are a function of climatic and environmental conditions and depend also on agricultural management decisions, technology and inputs, such as fertilizers and pesticides. Climate change is expected to have an impact on precipitation and temperature as well as on the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as heat waves, droughts, floods, heavy storms and other environmental changes (Beniston et al. 2007). This will impact crop yields in terms of quantity as well as quality and may lead to crop yield differences from one year to the next (Sonia Quiroga y Iglesias 2009; Ana Iglesias y Quiroga 2007), which will also have important economic consequences (Ciscar et al. 2011; Ana Iglesias 2010). Past trends The past century saw important productivity increases in many parts of the world. However, climate change has been linked in some studies to a change in crop yield. At the global level for the period 1961 – 2002, temperature and precipitation have been estimated to explain approximately 30% of interannual variation of yields for the six most widely cultivated crops and a clear negative correlation between global yields and increased temperatures has been identified for wheat, maize and barely (Lobell and Field 2007). Using crop yield models, it was found that for 1980 – 2008, maize and wheat yields declined 3.8% and 5.5%, respectively, when compared to expected yields without climate change (Lobell, Schlenker, y Costa-Roberts 2011)In Europe, variable weather patterns and occasional extreme events over the past decades have been associated with yield variability and higher temperatures have been linked to negative impacts on yields of grain and seed crops (Peltonen-Sainio et al. 2010). Projections The future likely impact of a changing climate on crop yield depends on the direction and size of the change that is to be experienced as well as a combination of other environmental, regional, local and farm-level conditions and factors (Reidsma et al. 2010). Studies using 10 [Climate impacts on sectors and policies] crop models to provide projections of changes in crop productivity have been undertaken for many years (Semenov and Porter 1995). At the global level, even under different future scenarios, regional winners and losers can be identified (FigureX), (Ana Iglesias, Quiroga, y Diz 2011) Often however, analyses concentrate on one particular region or crop. For instance, for winter wheat in Denmark it has been projected that grain yield decreases 3.6% by 2020 and 8.0% by 2040, compared to 1985 yields (Kristensen, Schelde, y Olesen 2011). At the European level, for many environmental zones, a clear picture of deterioration of agroclimatic conditions from increased drought stress and a shortening of active growing season begins to emerge. Some results also suggest a risk of an increasing number of unfavourable years for agricultural production in many European climatic zones, resulting in possible year-to-year yield variability (M. Trnka, Olesen, et al. 2011). FigureX shows projected land productivity change aggregated at the country level for an average A1B and E1 scenarios for the 2080s without considering adaptation (Ana Iglesias, Quiroga, y Diz 2011). Often however, analyses concentrate on one particular region or crop. For instance, for winter wheat in Denmark it has been projected that grain yield decreases 3.6% by 2020 and 8.0% by 2040, compared to 1985 yields (Kristensen, Schelde, y Olesen 2011). In Macedonia, a recent study analysed the likely impact of different future climate scenarios on wheat yield using Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) The outcome of this exercise, which also contemplated different adaptation responses shows a wide range of yield responses for different future climate scenarios and is shown in Figure X (further details to be incorporated). [Agriculture] 11 Scenario Medium (5, 6, 7, 8), adaptation level-1, level0, level+1, dryland and irrigated Scenario Medium (5, 6, 7, 8), adaptation level+2, level+3, dryland and irrigated Scenario high (9, 10, 11, 12), adaptation level-1, level0, level+1, dryland and irrigated Scenario high (9, 10, 11, 12), adaptation level+2, level+3, dryland and irrigated Figure X. Yield at maturity for wheat in Macedonia for medium (top) and high (bottom) climate change scenarios for four time slices (2010, 2020, 2030, 2040) for both dryland and irrigated agriculture and considering different adaptations (level -1/0/1 in left column and +2/+3 in right column). Bars indicate the range of values; orange stars indicate the 50th percentile (Further details to be incorporated and other sites to be chosen) At the European level, for many environmental zones, a clear picture of deterioration of agroclimatic conditions from increased drought stress and a shortening of active growing season begins to emerge. Some results also suggest a risk of an increasing number of unfavourable years for agricultural production in many European climatic zones, resulting in possible year-to-year yield variability (M. Trnka, Olesen, et al. 2011). Adaptation needs and options Adaptation to a change in crop-yield variability as a result of changes in climate and extreme events involves both anticipating and planning for the changes and identifying and 12 [Climate impacts on sectors and policies] implementing appropriate measures to facilitate adaptation. This will be important for the future and competitiveness of European agriculture and has implications for global food security and international trade. Changing varieties that are more adapted to the particular climatic conditions in question or in the agricultural management decisions (sowing date, fertilization, irrigation, drainage) as well as modifications to land allocation and farming system are adaptation options that should be evaluated to reduce negative crop-yield variability (Bindi y Olesen 2010). More specifically, for many parts of Europe, projections point to a need for adaptive measures to increase soil water availability or drought resistance of crops ((M. Trnka, Olesen, et al. 2011). Figure X (update) shows the sensitivity of maize and wheat yields to climate change, spanning a range of temperature changes and considering cases where adaptation measures in terms of changes in planting dates, crop varieties and shifts from rain-fed to irrigated conditions are implemented. [Agriculture] 13 Figure X: Sensitivity of cereal yields to climate change for maize and wheat (update graph from JRC or other study - TBC) 14 [Climate impacts on sectors and policies] 6.1.5 Water requirement / (CLIM033) Key messages Italy and the Iberian Peninsula and parts of Central Europe have experienced an increase in the volume of water required from irrigation in order to ensure that crop growth is not limited by water stress Overall expected increases in temperature throughout Europe will lead to increase in evapotranspiration rates, thereby also increasing water requirements for crops. The trend of increasing water requirements is expected to be more acute in Southern Europe, where the extent of the suitability of rainfed agriculture will decrease and irrigation requirements will increase. This will coincide with a general reduction in water availability Relevance Climate change will affect agriculture through changes in CO2 concentration as well as changes in temperature, radiation and precipitation. The global demand for water will also be affected by socio-economic changes such as population and income increases and changes in dietary preferences. Increasing demands for water by industrial and urban users, and water for the environment will intensify competition. At the same time, water scarcity is increasing in several important agricultural areas (Ana Iglesias et al. 2006; Giupponi y Shechter 2003). Adaptation options include water use efficiency improvements, infrastructure improvements as well as measures to improve soil properties, among others. Past trends Although consistent observations of water demand for agriculture do not currently exist for Europe, trends can be evaluated using meteorological data. Figure X provides an estimate of the change of the volume of water required from irrigation in order to ensure that crop growth is not limited by water stress for the April-September growing season. For the period considered (1975 – 2010), particularly Italy and the Iberian Peninsula but also parts of Central Europe experience an increase in the volume of water required from irrigation in order to ensure that crop growth is not limited by water stress. [Agriculture] 15 Map X: Rate of change of themeterological water balance 1975 - 2010 Note: The rate of change of the “meterological water balance,” expressed in m3 ha-1 y-1. The map provides an estimate increase (red in map) or decrease (blue in map) of the volume of water required from irrigation in order to ensure that crop growth is not limited by water stress. Source: MARS/STAT database Projections Ongoing changes in consumer preferences, particularly in developing countries, has been suggested as one of the main drivers determining future agricultural water use, especially since livestock products, sugar, and oils typically require more water to produce than cereals roots or tubers (de Fraiture y Wichelns 2010). Numerous climate scenarios foresee a likely increase in precipitation in the north and a decrease in southern Europe, particularly during the summer. Droughts are projected to become more severe and persistent in most parts of Europe by the end of the 21st century, except in the most northern and north-eastern regions. Estimations of irrigation demand for all of Europe are difficult to attain but regional projections can provide insight into possible trends (Iglesias et al. 2006). For the Mediterranean region, in the framework for the CIRCE project (Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment), an analysis of water availability and reliability for meeting irrigation demands once urban demands are satisfied (based on 300L per capita 16 [Climate impacts on sectors and policies] per day base) was carried out (Quiroga Gomez et al. 2010; Ana Iglesias et al. 2011; Quiroga, Fernandez-Haddad and Iglesias 2011). The advantage of the approach used is that the model (WAPA) combines estimations of future demographic and economic developments with changes expected due to climate change. Figure x, shows the per-unit change in runoff for 2021 – 2050 with respect to the control scenario as well as the per unit change in water availability considering urban demand as primary. In many European basins, the proportional reduction of water availability is larger than the reduction in mean annual runoff, implying that the use of water for other purposes such as irrigation would be curtailed more than the reduction in annual runoff considering priority of urban demand (Iglesias et al. 2011; Quiroga et al. 2011) Figure X Per unit reduction of runoff (above) and water availability for irrigation (below) in climate change scenario (2070-2100) with respect to control run (1960-1990) for DMI model in Mediterranean European basins Irrigation demand estimations are necessary at detailed spatial scales and different climatic or agricultural zones. Figure X shows the evolution of annual irrigation requirement for wheat in three sites in Macedonia representing Alpine, Continental and Mediterranean climates. An appreciable increase in irrigation demand can be expected by 2040 under the medium and high scenarios for both the Continental and Mediterranean sites evaluated. Alpine AEZ Continental AEZ Mediterranean AEZ (Solunska Glava, Macedonia) (Kriva Palanka, Macedonia) (Shtip, Macedonia) [Agriculture] 17 300.00 25.00 wheat total irrgi damand (mm/yr) s00 s01 250.00 20.00 400.00 wheat total irrgi damand (mm/yr) s04 s05 150.00 s06 s05 200.00 s06 s05 s07 100.00 s08 s07 150.00 s07 s08 100.00 s09 s08 s1050.00 s11 s12 0.00 s10 s11 s12 0.00 0.00 s01 250.00 s04 s09 50.00 s10 5.00 s00 s02 s03 200.00 s04 10.00 wheat total irrgi damand (mm/yr) s02 300.00 s03 s02 15.00 s00 350.00 s01 1 1 Climate scenario Time-slice s03 s06 s09 s11 s12 1 Figure Legend 700.00 600.00 500.00 400.00 300.00 200.00 100.00 0.00 pasture total irrgi damand base 1992-2002 (mm/yr) low 2010 s00 s01 low 2020 s02 low 2030 s03 low 2040 s04 medium 2010 s05 medium 2020 s06 medium 2030 s07 medium 2040 s08 high 2010 s09 high 2020 s10 high 2030 s11 high 2040 s12 1 Figure X. Change in total irrigation water requirements per year in mm for wheat for three locations in Macedonia representing Alpine, Continental and Mediterranean climates and for baseline conditions (1992 – 2002) as well as for four time-slices (2010, 2020, 2030, 2040) and three different climate change scenarios (low, medium high). (Other sites to be chosen from different European regions) Adaptation needs and options Concepts such as water productivity (Molden et al. 2010; Siebert y Döll 2010), water footprint and water trade (Chapagain y Hoekstra 2008) can provide a basis to evaluate the need to shift the production of certain crops to other regions where climatic conditions are more amenable to certain cultivars. Also, the implementation of measures such as water harvesting, supplemental irrigation, deficit irrigation, precision irrigation techniques and soil– water conservation practices will reduce overall water losses and can counterbalance some of the increased demand due to climatic factors (Chapagain y Hoekstra 2008; Molden et al. 2010), especially considering that gross irrigation demands have been estimated to be 1.3 – 2.5 higher than actual field requirements, due to inefficient transport and different water 18 [Climate impacts on sectors and policies] management approaches (Wriedt et al. 2009). Planning, including the development and implementation of guidelines and management plans can help to reduce possible yield losses in cases such as drought or flood events (Ana Iglesias, Garrote, y Cancelliere 2009). [Agriculture] 19 6.1.6 Water limitation of crops Key messages Already today, crop production is at least moderately water limited in many regions and especially in the south Crop water limitation is projected to worsen across the southern part of Europe In the temperate and northern latitudes, a water-driven increase in crop production is likely Relevance Crop water is water needed by a crop for growth and it is extracts water from the soil. It is dependent on weather conditions, soil water, the crop species and the particular growth stage of the crop. Providing a measure of crop production limited by water can give an indication of the hotspots where water limitation is currently or will in the future play an important role in determining agricultural production. Past trends Already today, crop production is at least moderately water limited - defined as a ratio of actual to maximum production of < 0.7 - in many regions and especially in the south. Over most of the Mediterranean region, actual production is less than half the production that would be possible in the absence of water limitation - a ratio of < 0.5: in contrast, crop production is hardly water limited in northern and north-western Europe where the ratio is > 0.8. (Gerten, 2009). Projections Crop water limitation is projected to worsen across the southern part of Europe. Streamflow droughts will become more severe and persistent in most parts of Europe by the end of the century, except in the most northern and north-eastern regions. Most of Europe, except Spain, Southern Italy and South-Eastern Europe is not expected to observe major changes in mean annual river flow a reduction in river flows is projected for the summer in most areas of Europe. (Feyen and Dankers, 2009; Feyen and Dankers, 2010). When considering different future socio-economic scenarios and developments, competition for limited water resources becomes more severe in water-limited areas. While water resources that can potentially be used for irrigation will diminish in the regions for which crop water limitation is projected to increase, the absolute demand for irrigation is expected to increase and thereby contribute additionally to water scarcity problems. The probability of the occurrence of days with water deficit (defined as ETa/ETr ratio is less than 0.4) from April to June was projected to increase in the Mediterranean (M. Trnka, 20 [Climate impacts on sectors and policies] Olesen, et al. 2011). Despite lower summer precipitation expected by 2050s across Europe and higher probability of dry days, it may be possible that yield losses from drought become lower as winter wheat, for instance, will mature earlier and avoid severe drought (Mikhail A. Semenov y Shewry 2011). Adaptation needs and options Without adaptation measures, crop yields are likely to decline due to water shortages, particularly in regions expected to experience reductions in water availability during critical growing periods, such as southern Europe. Adaptation can encompass improved water use in rain-fed agriculture, increases in irrigated areas, as well as increases in irrigation efficiency through improved management approaches. Figure X. Water limitation of crop primary production in Europe under rain-fed conditions Note: Crop water limitation is expressed as ratio between actual and theoretical production averaged over all crop types Source: Gerten 2009 [Agriculture] 21 6.1.7 References Aerts, R., Cornelissen, J.H.C., Dorrepaal, E., 2006. Plant performance in a warmer world: general responses of plants from cold, northern biomes and the importance of winter and spring events. Plant Ecology 82: 65–77. Bindi, M., Olesen, J.E., 2011. 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