Download Talk 3 - Climate science in support of sustainable agriculture

Climate Science in Support of
Sustainable Agriculture
Selvaraju Ramasamy, René Gommes, Michele Bernardi
Climate, Energy and Tenure Division (NRC)
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy
Silent Hunger Crisis has reached a historic high
• Over 1.02 billion people in the World
suffer from hunger today
• The number of chronically
undernourished people in the world
has risen from 842 million in the
1990s over one billion in 2009
• The vast majority of the world’s
undernourished people live in
developing countries
% Population Undernourished 02-04
0-1
1-3
3-5
5 - 10
10 - 15
15 - 20
20 - 25
25 - 50
50 - 75
Source: FAO (2009)
The Changing Context: Climate Impacts
Agricultural
Productivity
(Food, cash crops,
livestock, fishery
and forestry
products)
Biophysical drivers
• Temperature
• Extreme events
• Rainfall patterns
• Seasonal shifts
• Sea level rise
Agricultural
Infrastructure
(roads, storage,
processing,
irrigation systems)
Agricultural
Livelihoods
(Migration,
labour availability,
food insecurity,
conflicts, sale of
productive assets)
Ecosystem Services
and Environment
Sustainability
(policies; community
participation;
payments)
Demand for Food is Increasing:
Expanding Agriculture...
• World population is projected to reach 9.1 billion
people in 2050
• Diets are undergoing a revolution - hundreds
of millions more people in many mid-level
developing countries can now afford meat and
dairy products.
• Livestock raised for meat consume large
quantities of food – it takes eight kilos of grain
to produce one kilo of beef.
• Raising overall food production by some 70%
should be achieved up to 2050
• The combined effect of climate change, land
degradation, crop losses, water scarcity and
species infestations may cause projected yields
to be 5 – 25% short of demand by 2050
• 185 million ha of rainfed – crop land (+19%) and
60 million ha of irrigated land (+30%) should be
brought into production
THINKING OF FOOD, ENERGY
AND CLIMATE AS ONE
Food, Energy and Climate.
• For the first time in history, these
three are closely linked.
• Without an understanding of this
new reality, we lack the basis for
the most fundamental policy
decisions
• Governments are supporting the
production of biofuels from crops
previously grown for food, fodder
and shelter
Subsistence and Smallholder Agriculture
•
•
•
•
•
•
About two-thirds of the 3 billion rural people in
the World live off the income generated by
farmers managing some 500 million small farms
of less than 2 hectares each
Agriculture constitutes the principle livelihood of
70% of the World’s poor, many of the world’s
poor and hungry are smallholder farmers,
herders, fisher folk, forest-dwellers and
indigenous population
The smallholder systems are “complex,
diverse and risk prone” – risks are diverse
Marginal location, small farm size, informal land
tenure and low levels of technology compounds
the risks associated with climate variability and
change
Efforts to boost agricultural production must
focus largely on increasing smallholder
productivity
Climate services should target these vulnerable
populations
Looking at Climate as a RESOURCE..
• Climate as a resource must be known,
assessed in quantitative terms and
properly managed by the farmers
• Smallholder farmers are already managing
climate risks - planting different crop
varieties, changing planting dates and
adapting practices to shorter growing
seasons; but are not sufficient
• Climate science supports systematic
characterization of agriculture resources
and develop climate responsive policies,
programmes and practices
• Ecological implications of agriculture
development require an improved
understanding between the climate,
biological and socio-economic components
Reactive alternatives are adhoc…
Entry to build sustainable agriculture
Climate Change brings changes in the
frequency, magnitude, and intensity of
extreme climate events
So far measures to address the
consequences are ad hoc…
Efforts to shift from reactive emergency
approach to pro-active risk reduction
should start at different levels
Emergency programmes need to
integrate elements of risk reduction and
promote sustainable agriculture
Integrated community centred pro-poor
approaches are needed; should include
localized early warning and response
systems
Water Management and Enhanced Water
Productivity
• Agriculture accounts for 70% of all water use worldwide and up to
95% in many developing countries
• Over 277 million hectares are classified as irrigated land
• Projections suggest that, by 2025, over 3 billion people are likely to
be experiencing water stress
• Enhance water productivity
– Reducing uncertainty in water
availability
– Water harvesting and re-cycling
– Soil and water conservation
– Investment in irrigation
– Matching crops and varieties to rainy
season potentials
– Optimal water allocation conditioned
by climate information
Distribution, incidence and
intensity of pests and diseases
• The movement of plant pests, animal diseases cross physical
and political boundaries and threaten food security
• Temperature and precipitation are the key factors; alter species
composition and interactions
• Outbreaks of animal and plant pests and disease have
historically resulted in major food emergencies
• Investment in early control and detection system will be key to
avoid the higher costs of eradication and management
• Monitoring pest and disease incidence and establishment of
new thresholds should seek support of climate services
• Integrated Pest Management (IPM) approach can be further
elaborated taking into consideration of emerging climate related
risks
Fishery Dependent Communities
are at risk...
• Fisheries employ more than 200 million people worldwide – 98 percent
from developing countries
• Fish products provide more than 2.8 billion people with about 20
percent of their average per capita intake of animal protein
• Stability of supply are affected by changes in seasonality and
increased variance of ecosystem productivity
• Fishery-dependent communities may also face increased vulnerability in
terms of less stable livelihoods, decrease in availability of fish, and
safety risks due to fishing in harsher weather conditions
• Losses caused by spoilage amount to about 10 to 12 million tonnes per
year and an estimated 20 million tonnes of fish a year are discarded at
sea
• Reducing post-harvest losses by creating better storage facilities
suitable for climatic conditions offers opportunities
• Ecosystem approach for adaptation in fishery should consider early
warning systems and protection of fishery infrastructure
Croplands in Biodiversity Hotspots
• Each hotspot has already lost at least 70% of its original natural
vegetation
• Over 50% of the World’s plant species and 42% of all terrestrial vertebrate
species are endemic to the 34 biodiversity hotspots
• Extension of croplands into biodiversity hotspots or croplands
biodiversity hotspots with low agriculture suitability
• Define sustainable conservation practices:
Establishing farmland corridors that link uncultivated species, mimic
natural habitats by integrating productive perennial plants, use of
farming systems that reduce pollution, modify resource management
practices to enhance habitate quality in and around farmlands
Sustainable Natural Resource Management
• Sustainable natural resource management is the entry
point
– contributes to livelihood asset development, enhanced
adaptive capacity and resilience
• The key issues need collaboration and partnership are:
– Cropping patterns Vs changing rainfall patterns
– Management of coastal salinity; loss of livelihoods
– Protection of mangroves – mitigation and adaptation
synergies
– Trans-boundary pest and disease
– Management of pastoral systems and degraded
lands
– Cross-boundary water resource management
– Development of new crop types tolerant and
resistant to stresses
– Rehabilitation of rangelands
– Revised land use and land cover planning
Sustainable Natural Resource Management
• The specific action :
– Localized adaptation measures
– adjusting planting dates and crop types
– Enterprise diversification
– Increasing water productivity
– improved fertiliser use
– Grazing land management
– Diversified livelihood systems
– Weather based insurance
– Integration of traditional farmer practices
– Gender perspectives into sustainable NRM
– Integrated watershed management
– Forest fire monitoring and management
Agriculture plays an important role in CC Mitigation
•
A notable source of the three major greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide,
methane and nitrous oxide
•
Forestry (including deforestation) accounted for 17.4% of total emissions
in 2004, with emissions from intensive crop and livestock production
contributing another 13.5%
•
Agriculture has the technical potential to mitigate between 5.5 and 6.0 Gt
of CO2 per year by 2030
•
The actions that have large mitigation potential and high co-benefits are:
– increasing soil carbon sequestration through improved crop and grazing land
management
– forestry and agro-forestry initiatives
– improving efficiency of nutrient management and restoration of organic soils
and degraded lands.
•
C sequestration efforts need careful planning based on variety of factors
(includes temperature and soil moisture regimes)
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation
and forest Degradation (REDD)
•
•
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The UN-REDD Programme, a collaborative
partnership between FAO, UNDP and UNEP
launched in September 2008
Supports countries to develop capacity to
Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and
forest Degradation (REDD)
FAO supports countries on technical issues
related to forestry and the development of
cost effective and credible Measurement,
Reporting and Verification (MRV) processes
for emission reductions.
Phase 1 - Pilot countries
• Africa: DR Congo, Tanzania, Zambia
• Asia & Pacific: Indonesia, PNG, Vietnam
• LA & Caribbean: Bolivia, Panama, Paraguay
Partnership and collaboration on Data,
Tools and Methods
Information systems, data bases, hazard specific
warning mechanisms, impact assessment tools
Initiatives to promote information and mapping
systems on food insecurity and vulnerability
Information systems
FAOCLIM
AGDAT
AgroMetShell
p
Focus on Areas of Concern (AoCs) and Critical Zones
• Climate risk and impact
‘hotspot’ (critical zones)
and Adaptation Areas of
Concern (AOC)
• Spatial and temporal
vulnerabilities vulnerability varies in the
same location from time to
time
• Strengthen climate and
agriculture impact baseline
data
Institutional mechanisms for accessing climate
services and up-scaling of adaptation measures
Top-down multi-stakeholder
processes
Bottom-up community based
assessments
Legal and
institutional;
Climate forecasts
for farm-level
decision-making
Policy and
planing;
Livelihood;
Integrated
farming
system;
Agroecosytems.
Impact
assessments
based on climate
change scenarios
Cimate Knowledge and Community Based Climate Change Adaptation
Vulnerability and Risk
Assessing current and
future climate risks and
vulnerabilities
Policy support
and up-scaling
monitoring and
Evaluation;
Integration into
policy
Climate
Knowledge
Implementing
options,
demonstrations
and replication
Implementing
adaptation options
preparing
localized impact
outlooks
Planning for
Adaptation
Indigenous and
improved
adaptation
practices
Adaptation Practices and
Options
Risk Typologies, Responses and Climate
Services
Respond to
save livelihoods
Social capital,
community networks
Frequency
Over exploitation of
natural resources
Respond
to save
lives
Emergency
Response
Risk Insurance
High
C
B
A
A
Moderate
C
B
B
A
Low
D
C
B
B
Very Low
D
D
C
C
Minor
High input agriculture; Low
input use efficiency
Serious
Severity
Extensive
Livelihood
diversification
Catastrophe
Emergency support;
transient livelihoods
Class A: High-Risk
Class B: Moderate to High Risk
Class C: Moderate Risk
Class D: Low Risk
Localized Knowledge Sharing Mechanisms for
Sustainable Agriculture
• Support of climate services
– Farmer Field Schools
– Farmer Participatory Climate
Workshops
– Climate Information Centres
– Village Knowledge Centres
– Local Climate Forums
– Field Demonstrations and
Field Days
Farm Adaptive Dynamic Optimization (FADO)
.
FADO
refers to a combination of methodology that helps to
identify, analyze and prioritize the climate related vulnerabilities
and risks and optimize the adaptation practices to effectively
respond to climate variability and change at local level
feedback from
the clients
on the ground
decision
making with
clients
information flow on
weather and crop
phenology/ crop stages
local context
and community
objectives and
local
perceptions
communication of
impact outlooks
and management
advisories
analysis of climate
related risks and
vulnerabilities and
adaptive options
Historical climate data
Historical climate impact data
Weather and climate forecasts
Market price of crops
Near real time weather information
information flow on local situation and
community perception on risks and
vulnerabilities
Socio-economic data
resources and land use
local coping strategies
local rules of thumb
Support to Policy and Planning
 Improved mechanisms for cross-sectoral coordination
for Effective Climate and agriculture services
Integration of climate related concerns and opportunities into
agriculture policies and development plans
Agricultural perspectives to the development of National Adaptation
Programme of Action (NAPA)
Plan of Action (PoA) for the Sectoral Ministries (Eg. Agriculture,
livestock, fishery)
 Strengthen basic service systems
Decentralized risk reduction plans
Improving climate information products for agriculture
Improving data collection, monitoring and analysis capacity
strengthening proactive community based risk management
Institutional capacity building in agriculture sector
1. Understand the types of climate services available at
the national level and its relevance for agriculture
2. should know how to interpret and prepare impact
outlooks and management alternatives conditioned on
weather and climate information
3. should incorporate climate knowledge in their services
(eg. contingency planning, cropping programmes)
4. Current climate variability is the entry point to build the
resilience - awareness raising at the community level
remains key (community based organizations)
Conclusions
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Climate is just one of the factors affecting food security
There is no simple solution to sustainably feeding 9 billion people
Support of climate service to sustainable agriculture should be
part of broader package of services to farmers
A broad range of options are available, but needs to be pursued in
the context of changing physical, biological and socio-economic
scenarios
As far as climate impacts are concerned, the time horizon counts;
proposed actions should consider the farmers ability and
resources
Broader collaboration and partnerships are required at multiple
levels ranging from monitoring, use of climate information to
capacity building and institutional and policy development
All these efforts present key challenges, but offers immense
opportunities
THANK YOU