Download climate change - Adaptation Scotland

Introduction to Climate
Change Adaptation
Weather vs. Climate
Weather is what we experience and, as anyone living in
Scotland will know, this can vary by the minute, as well as
day-to-day and year-to-year.
Climate is the average of weather conditions over a long
period of time*... while climate change is a long-term trend
in climate
* World Meteorological Organisation uses a 30-year period
What is adaptation?
“The adjustment in economic, social or natural
systems in response to actual or expected climatic
change, to limit harmful consequences and exploit
beneficial opportunities.”
Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme (2014)
…not to be confused with mitigation
Mitigation -
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions
in order to slow or stop global
climate change, i.e. using the car less,
flying less and buying local food.
Adaptation - Adjusting to the impacts of climate
change to reduce the negative
impacts and exploit any opportunities, i.e.
building sea walls or removing carpets
from accommodation that is at risk from
flooding.
Adaptation involves…
Adapting to Present Climate or Weather, and
Adapting to Future Climate Change
Why adapt to climate change?
1. Scotland’s climate is already changing. The climate
projections for the next century indicate that the
climate trends observed over the last century will
continue and intensify over the coming decades.
2. Legislation for Public Bodies involves reporting
annually on climate change adaptation progress.
How is the climate changing?
Global Surface Warming (°C)
We’ve already seen changes in the
global climate
4
Observed global temperature
change from 1900-2000.
3
2
1
0
-1
1900
2000
Source: adapted from NASA Earth
Observatory data IPCC 2007 WG1 AR-4
2100
Recent changes in temperature
(1961-2006)
Average annual summer temperature
has increased by 1.3˚C since 1961.
Average annual winter temperature
has increased by 1˚C since 1961.
Recent changes in rainfall (1961-2006)
Average annual summer rainfall
has increased by 11% since 1961.
Average annual winter rainfall has
increased by 45% since 1961.
Other climate observations
• Average annual temperature increased by 1°C between 1961 and
2004.
• Average annual precipitation in Scotland increased by 21% between
1961 and 2004, with an almost 70% increase in winter precipitation
for Northern Scotland.
• There has been a 25% reduction in winter days with snow cover
• Sea level at all of Scotland’s ports has been rising over the last
century, with the rate accelerating over the last two decades
• The growing season is now nearly 5 weeks longer in Scotland
(comparing 1961 to 2004)
• Since 1961 there has been more than a 25% reduction in the
number of frost days across Scotland, with downward trend since
the 1980s.
Global Surface Warming (°C)
Projections of Future Global Climate
4
3
2
Model simulations by the IPCC estimate that the Earth will
warm between 2˚C and 6˚C over the next century, depending
on how fast carbon dioxide emissions grow. Scenarios that
assume people will burn more fossil fuel provide the
estimates in the top end of the temperature range,
while scenarios that assume that greenhouse
gas emissions will grow slowly give lower
temperature predictions. The orange line
provides an estimate of global temperatures
if greenhouse gases stayed at year
2000 levels.
High Growth (A2)
Medium Growth
(A1B)
Low Growth (B1)
1
Constant CO2
(held at 2000 levels)
0
-1
1900
Source: adapted from NASA
Earth Observatory data IPCC
2007 WG1 AR-4
2000
2100
What do we know about Scotland’s
Future Climate?
Over the last few decades we have seen remarkable progress in our
understanding of climate – and how humans are changing it...
... and we continue to improve on this.
Scotland has access to world leading
information, through the UK Climate Projections,
about how our climate is likely to change over
this century.
http://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/
Future climate change trends for Scotland
The key long-term climate change trends for Scotland are:
•
•
•
•
Weather will remain variable, it may become more variable
Typical summer is hotter and drier
Typical winter / autumn is milder and wetter
Sea level rise
We can also expect to see:
• Increase in summer heat waves, extreme temperatures and drought
• Increased frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events
• Reduced occurrence of frost and snowfall
What does this mean for Scotland?
Building performance will be challenged
Building performance will be challenged by a changing climate,
needing to cope with more extreme summer temperatures,
intense rainfall events and potential changes in wind and storm
patterns. This will require appropriate design and building
standards, but also adaptation of existing building stock.
The occurrence of pests and diseases
As our climate changes, it will create new conditions that may
allow existing pests and diseases to spread and new threats to
become established in Scotland. This may impact on the health
of our people, animals, plants and ecosystems if risks are not
properly managed.
Damaged infrastructure and disrupted
transport networks
Our infrastructure systems are likely to be impacted by an
increase in disruptive events such as flooding, landslides,
drought, and heatwaves. As our infrastructure is closely interlinked and failure in any area could lead to wider disruption
across these networks.
Water environment and resource management
will become more complex
As our climate warms and rainfall patterns change, there may be
increased competition for water between households,
agriculture, industry and the needs of the natural environment.
Summer droughts may become more frequent and more severe
causing problems for water quality and supply.
Rising seas will threaten coastal communities
and infrastructure
Sea level rise is already having a widespread impact on parts of
Scotland’s coast. With this set to accelerate over the coming
decades, we can expect to see more coastal flooding, erosion
and coastline retreat – with consequences for our coastal
communities and supporting infrastructure.
The demands on emergency and rescue
services will change
In a changing climate emergency services may need to
respond to an increased frequency and severity of flooding,
landslide and wildfire events. There may also be changes in
social and recreational behaviour that present new
challenges to the emergency and rescue services.
Organisations need to consider whether staff, equipment
and resources can respond
to changing pressures.
The demands on health services will change
A warming climate may provide more opportunity to be
outdoors and enjoy a healthy and active lifestyle, while reducing
mortality in winter. However, it could affect patterns of disease
and other health issues. Climate change and associated extreme
weather may disrupt the lives of individuals and communities,
limiting access to vital services and impacting on people’s
physical and mental health.
How do you adapt?
Working through an adaptation
process will be different for
communities, businesses and
public sector organisations. To
reflect this we have developed
a generic adaptation process,
along with a number of tools
and resources to support each
sector.
The adaptation process
The adaptation process consists of
5 stages to help you get started
with adaptation, understand and
assess the impacts of current
and future climate change,
identify and prioritise your
adaptation options to
address your key climate
risks, help you implement
your adaptation actions,
evaluate them, and continuously
monitor and review your work.
Five stages of the adaptation process
Getting started
1
This stage of the process includes:
• Finding out about the impacts of climate change
for Scotland
• Understanding why the impacts of climate change
matter
• Raising awareness and agreeing next steps
Understand the impacts of climate change
2
This stage of the process includes:
• Learning about past climate trends and future
projections
• Understanding how your place, assets, services or
priorities have been affected by severe weather
events in the past
• Considering how your place, assets, services or
priorities might be affected as our climate
continues to change
Identify and prioritise actions
3
This stage of the process includes:
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•
•
•
Establishing a vision for a climate ready future
Identifying the most significant climate risks
Identifying existing adaptation options
Examining what further action is needed
Take action
4
This stage of the process includes:
•
•
•
•
•
Partnership working and leadership
Collating and presenting your adaptation actions
Building adaptive capacity
Implementing on the ground actions
Telling others
Monitor, review and evaluate
This stage of the process includes:
•
•
•
•
Monitoring and reporting progress
Reviewing regularly
Reflecting on what has worked and why
Evaluating the outcomes
5
How we can help
Adapting to climate change takes time and Adaptation
Scotland are here to provide support and advice with
all your adaptation queries.
We can help you from getting started and examining
how climate change is impacting you, through to
monitoring the effect of your adaptation efforts. We
would love to hear from you!
Please contact us on [email protected]
[email protected]
@adaptationscotland
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk