Download Stefan Greiving, ESPON Climate

ESPON Climate
Climate change and territorial effects
on regions and local economies
in Europe
Stefan Greiving (TU Dortmund)
ESPON Internal Seminar
Liège, Belgium
Nov. 17, 2010
1
Reminder: Overall methodology of the project
Exposure
Summer
Days
Frost
Days
Summer
Precip.
Sensitivity
Snow Cover
Days
Winter
Precip.
Sea Level
Rise
Heavy
Rainfall Days
Mean
Evapor.
Mean
Temp.
Physical Environ.
Econ.
Social
Cultural
A
A
A
A
A
B
B
B
B
B
C
C
C
C
C
D
D
D
D
D
River
Floods
Aggregate
Exposure
Aggregate
Sensitivity
Impacts
Physical
Envir.
Econ.
Social
A
A
A
A
A
B
B
B
B
B
C
C
C
C
C
D
D
D
D
D
Cultural
Aggregate
Impact
Thematic
Impact Maps
Vulnerability
Adaptive Capacity
InstiEconomic
Resources tutions
Infra
structure
Knowledge
+ Awareness Technology
A
A
A
A
A
B
B
B
B
B
C
C
C
C
C
D
D
D
D
D
Aggregate
Adaptive Capacity
Aggregate
Impact Map
Adaptive
Capacity Map
Aggregate
Vulnerability
Vulnerability
Map
2
Aggregated climate change exposure
Aggregated changes in climate
stimuli are more severe in
Scandinavia, the Alpine region and
parts of South-eastern Europe.
Range of values between 1.14 and
3.25 – some regions are three times
as much exposed as others.
This does not necessarily mean that
the vulnerability of Scandinavian
regions is particular high.
When sensitivity and adaptive
capacity come in, the picture will
considerably change.
The Mediterranean area is
considered to be particularly
vulnerable due to its sensitivity.
3
Triggered effect: river flooding
Maps shows projected
changes in flood hazard for
1:100 flood event till 2100 and
is based on JRC data
Complex patter: flood hazard
does not necessarily increase
due to climate change
Thus, a differentated tailormade policy response is
needed
High uncertanity calls for
flexible no-regret strategies
4
Triggered effect: Sea level rise
Methodology
Regional storm surge height
(100-year event)
Regional sea level rise adjustment
Projected global sea level rise
Current mean sea level
Sources:
G lobal sea level rise: Vermeer/Rahmstorff 2009
Regional adjustment: Satellite altimetry data 1992-2009
Storm surge heights: DIVA
5
5
Example for social sensitivity: Population changes 2005 – 2100
6
Population above 65 years in 2100
Absolute numbers (indexed)
Relative share (indexed)
7
Combining sensitivity and exposure
Population > 65y (abs. & rel.)
Exposure: Summer days
8
Impact: Population above 65y affected by heat events
Mainly affected regions:
•
Mediterranean cities, Parts of
Southern Italy, Northern Iberian
regions, Southern Germany,
Urbanized areas in SE Europe
•
Adaptive capacity building is
needed mainly on the local level:
• Strengthening coping
capacity
• Suitable urban planning, i.e.
protection and extension of
open spaces in inner cities
• New architecture
• Awareness building, because
existing building stock is the
main problem; thus
individual actions are needed
9
Parts of adaptive capacity: awareness, ability and action
+
Awareness indicators used:
•Computer skills
•Education expenditure
+
Ability Indicators used:
•R&D expenditure
•Patent applications
•Road density
•Hospital beds
= adaptive capacity
Action indicators used:
•Government
effectiveness
•National adaptation
strategies
•GDP per capita
•Age dependence
10
Aggregate adaptive capacity
Adaptice capacity is low
mainly in Southern and
Eastern Europe
These regions seems tobe
less able to cope with and
adapt to climate change
These regions are mostly
economically less
competetive than other
parts of Europe
The additional challenge of
climate change endangers
territorial cohesion
Average of 10 indicators
11
For main adaptation objectives:
Building adaptation capacity: relates directly
towards a measure that builds or enhances
government or societal awareness about
adaptation, builds capacity to enable action.
Reduction of risk and sensitivity: Actions can be
undertaken to reduce the risk of damage and
disruption, and reduce sensitivity of people,
property, natural resources, and ecology to changed
climatic conditions
Increased coping capacity: during extreme or
damaging events (response to extreme events).
Capitalization on changed climatic conditions:
some benefit might arise from any changed climatic
condition. In this case an action might be
undertaken to capitalize on such change.
Source: Massey/ Bergsma: Assessing adaptation in 29 European
Countries. Amsterdam 2008.
12
Greenhouse gas emissions / mitigation capacities
Indicators used:
•Carbon sinks
•GDP
•Education
expenditure, policies
and measures
•R&D expenditure
Low
mitigation
capacities
mainly in
Eastern
Europe, but
also
Germany
Europe 2020 report`s priority Sustainable growth: combating climate
change through a significant reduction of emissions and the full exploitation
of the potential of new technologies in order to also strengthen EU
economies' resilience to climate risks, and the capacity for disaster
prevention and response
13
First response to policy questions
•
•
“While the need for co-ordination and integration across
sectors, scales and levels is growing, the capacities to respond
are frequently shrinking […]. While it is generally recognised
that the role of spatial planning for climate mitigation and
adaptation should be strengthened, the practice is not very well
developed as yet.” (PEER Report No. 2: Climate Policy
Integration, Coherence and Governance, p. 60).
Some recommendations:
– Comprehensive strategies are needed that address
mitigation and adaption together with other challenges such
as demographic change (DEMIFER), resource shortages
(ReRisk) and urban growth (EU-LUPA)
– Climate proofing should be integrated in SEA
– Concepts of resilience and no regret have to be
operationalized for planning purposes
– Dealing with uncertainty calls for flexible concepts which
can be frequently adapted according to the results of a
continuous monitoring of given vulnerability.
14
Lessons learned from case studies - what regions and
local communities are able to do
Task
Milestones
Assessment of
long-term
consequences
Assessment and appraisal
of climate change impacts
on the humanenvironmental-system
Identification of
interaction between landuses and the changing
climate
New guiding principles
(such as “resilience”)
suitable for the ongoing
global change
Climate
proofing
Avoidance of non-adapted
developments
Adaptation of existing
spatial structures
(settlements,
infrastructure)
Potential
of spatial
planning
fair
good
Description
Possible based on regional impact studies,
planning has to have at hand. A strength of
comprehensive planning is the traditionally
integrated view on different change processes
(demography, economy, environment, climate)
Such assessments can easily be integrated in
the strategic environmental assessment which is
obligatory for any spatial plan or program
good
The concept of resilience is almost in line with
existing planning principles like decentralised
concentration and could therefore easily adopted
in planning practice
good
This is in focus of planning which is very much
about future developments. The effectiveness of
actions depends partly from the existing
regulatory framework (zoning instruments)
poor
Any adaptation of existing structures is hardly
possible through regulatory planning due to the
given private property rights. What is needed
are incentives and good practices aiming at
convincing private householders
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Lessons learned from case studies - what regions and
local communities are able to do - II
Task
Milestones
Assessment of frequency
and magnitude of
extreme events
(exposure)
Keeping disaster prone
areas free of further
development
Disaster
prevention
Differentiated decisions
on land-use: Acceptable
land-use types according
to the given risk
Adaptation of existing
building structures
Relocation/retreat from
threatened areas
Potential
of spatial
planning
poor
good
fair
Description
That is clearly a task for specialised authorities
like water management where spatial planning
does not have any competence at hand
At least conforming planning systems have
regulatory zoning instruments at hand.
Keeping free of areas prone to extreme events
is thereby possible
Almost possible, but not effective with regard
to existing settlement structures
fair
Almost impossible though regulatory measures
due to property rights. Suitable approaches
base on incentives and communication
poor
Again in conflict with property rights. Full
recompensation is normally needed which fails
mostly due to the lack of financial resources.
Possible in areas with shrinking population
where the existing building stock will be
(partly) deconstructed based on planning
strategies (see Eastern Germany)
1616
Draft Final Report: End of February 2011
Final report: End of May 2011
Comparative study on nine EU countries aims at recommendations
for strengthening the role of spatial planning in context of
territorially differentiated adaptation strategies.
Results are available in English:
http://www.bbsr.bund.de/cln_016/nn_21684/BBSR/EN/Publication
s/BMVBS/Online/2010/DL__ON212010,templateId=raw,property=
publicationFile.pdf/DL_ON212010.pdf
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Thank you for your attention
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Stefan Greiving
[email protected]
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