Download Negotiation Indices - European Capacity Building Initiative

Climate Change: an Introduction
ecbi Workshops 2008
Claire N Parker
Environmental Policy Consultant
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european capacity building initiative
initiative européenne de renforcement des capacités
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for sustained capacity building in support of international climate change negotiations
pour un renforcement durable des capacités en appui aux négociations internationales
sur les changements climatiques
The greenhouse effect in the atmosphere
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Natural and man-made carbon cycles
1.7
1.9
ATMOSPHERE
3.3
5.4
1.9
90
60
OCEAN
LAND
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Annual transfers, natural and human-made (GtC)
Source: IPCC
CO2 is major contributor to global warming
Current emissions, effect over next 100 years
Nitrous
oxide 10%
Others
3%
Carbon
dioxide
63%
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Methane
24%
• CO2 from fossil fuel use (mainly power
generation, transport) and land use change
(e.g. deforestation)
• CH4 (methane) and NO2 (nitrous oxide)
primarily from agriculture
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Sources of Greenhouse Gases
Stages in predicting climate change
CONCENTRATIONS
Carbon cycle and
chemistry models
‘Climate Forcing’.
CLIMATE CHANGE
feedbacks
CO2, methane, etc.
HEATING EFFECT
Gas properties
Temp, rain, sea level, etc.
Coupled climate
models
IMPACTS
Impacts models
Flooding, food supply, etc.
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Scenarios from
population, energy,
economics models
EMISSIONS
The climate system
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Strong global warming observed since 1975
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IPCC’s AR4 2007
Warming is unequivocal…
now clearly evident in many
aspects of the climate
system
• Earth surface has warmed by 0.74C over last
century
• Sea levels rose 20cm last century
• Glaciers, snow cover and sea ice all declining
• More heat-waves, droughts and extreme
rainfalls
• More intense cyclones
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Signs of climate change
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Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere: rapid
rise due to human activities
CO2 from fossil-fuel burning: rapid rise since
1950
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Source: CDIAC, ORNL
Similar patterns are observed for
methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (NO2)
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Other Greenhouse gases
Anthropogenic
is > 10 times
that of solar
since 1750
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AR4: high confidence in
radiative forcing data
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AR4: models are getting better
• Models are used to simulate the warming of the
last 150 years
• Their results correlate with anthropogenic +
natural warming
• Natural causes can’t explain what has
happened.
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AR4: observed vs. modelled global climate
change
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What do models predict?
• AR4: There is now higher confidence in
projected patterns of warming, and other
regional-scale features, including changes in
wind patterns, precipitation and some aspects of
extreme events and changes in ice cover
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if emissions continue to rise,
2100 global temp. is likely to be
1.8 to 4 C above today’s
emissions on the graph)
• Scale of warming depends on emissions:
Low scenario 1.1 – 2.9 C
High scenario 2.4 – 6.4 C
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• A further warming of about 0.6C likely
from past emissions alone (2000 constant
Warming expected to be greatest over land and at high northern
latitudes
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Geographical patterns of warming
•Sea levels will rise by 18 to 59 cm by 2100.
Additional 10-20 cm or more may come from
Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
•Snow cover, glaciers and sea ice will continue to
decline
•Rainfall and wind patterns will change
•Extreme events (rainfall and droughts) will be
more frequent
•Tropical cyclones will be more intense
•Meridional Overturning Circulation in N Atlantic
likely to slow down by 25%
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Other changes in climate will continue
The Atlantic Ocean’s Circulation System
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Changes will continue for centuries,
even if GHG concentrations
were to be stabilised by 2100
Emissions to 2000, and IPCC projections to 2100
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Past and projected CO2 emissions from
fuel burning
IEA World Energy Outlook fossil
2004
References & Acknowledgements
• IPCC, Climate Change 2001 Synthesis Report of the
Third Assessment Report
• IPCC, AR4, 2007
• DEFRA, UK (Department for Environment, Food and
Rural Affairs)
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• Climate Change and The Greenhouse Effect, A
briefing from the Hadley Centre, Dec [email protected]
Claire N Parker
[email protected]
+44 1763 209 066
+44 7769 66 47 01
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Thank You