Download Climate change adaptation priorities in South East Asia countries

SEAN-CC Regional Training Workshop:
Building Capacity on Access to Funds for
Climate Change Adaptation Initiatives
Climate change adaptation
priorities in SEA countries
Mozaharul Alam
Regional Climate Change Coordinator
Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific (ROAP)
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
Climate Change: reading the signs - temperature
 Global mean temperature
has increased 0.76oC during
1906-2005
.
 The average temperature in
Southeast Asia has increased
0.1–0.3°C per decade over
the last 50 years
 Increase in temperature
varies by countries – highest
change observed in
Singapore
Source: IPCC, 2007
Climate Change: reading the signs – precipitation
 Indonesia: decrease in annual
rainfall during recent decades in
some areas
 Philippines: increase in annual
rainfall and in the number of
rainy days
 Singapore: decrease in annual
rainfall in the past three decades
 Thailand: decrease annual
rainfall for the last five decades
 Viet Nam: decrease in monthly
rainfall in July-August and
increase in September to
November
Precipitation in Southeast Asia
trended downward from 1960
to 2000.
Source: IPCC, 2007
Climate Change: reading the signs – sea level rise
 Sea level has risen at the rate 1.8 mm/year since 1961 and 3.1
mm/year since 1993.
 IPCC estimated
sea levels may rise 18cm - 59cm in the coming
.
century.
 The Greenland ice sheet, which could raise sea levels by 6m if it
melted away, is currently losing more than 100 cubic km a yearfaster than can be explained by natural melting.
 In SEA, sea levels have risen 1–3 millimeters per year and
projected to rise by 70 cm by 2100
Climate Change: reading the signs – extreme events
Extreme
Events
Key Trends
Heat waves
Increase in hot days and warm nights, and decrease in cold days
and nights between 1961 and 1998
Intense
rains and
floods
Increased occurrence of extreme rains causing flash floods in Viet
Nam; landslides and floods in 1990 and 2004 in the Philippines, and
floods in Cambodia in 2000, 2011
Droughts
Droughts normally associated with El Niño years in Indonesia, Lao
PDR, Myanmar, Philippines, and Viet Nam; droughts in 1997 and
1998 causing massive crop failures and water shortages as well as
forest fires in various parts of Indonesia, Lao PDR, and Philippines
Typhoons
On average, 20 cyclones cross the Philippine, about eight or nine
making landfall each year; an average increase of 4.2 in the
frequency of cyclones entering the Philippine during the period
1990—2003
Source: IPCC, 2007
Climate Change: reading the signs – projection of temperature
 Global mean temperature
projected to be increased
by 1.8 to
5.4°C by 2100
.
 The mean surface air
temperature in SEA
would increase between
0.75–0.87°C by 2039,
1.32–2.01°C by 2069, and
1.96–3.77°C by 2100
(IPCC, 2007)
Source: IPCC, 2007
Reading the signs – projection of temperature
 Indonesia: increase 2.1°C and 3.4°C by 2100
under the B2 and A2 scenarios, respectively.
 Philippines:
increase of 1.2–3.9°C by 2080,
.
using all the IPCC emission scenarios.
 Singapore: similar to the projected global
mean temperature rise of 2.5°C with a range
of 1.7–4.4°C.
 Thailand: increase 2–4°C by the end of this
century
 Viet Nam: increase in temperature of 2–4°C
by 2100
 Cambodia: increase in mean annual
temperatures of 0.3-0.6°C by 2025, 0.7-2.7°C
by the 2060s and of 1.4-4.3 °C by the 2090s
Reading the signs – projection of temperature
.
Source: WB, 2013
4oC Global Temperature Rise: impacts on Southeast Asia
Agriculture
 Yields of cereals crops could decrease by up to 5% across South
.
East Asia (best-case scenario) and reduction in yield may be as
much as 30% or higher. Any reduction in rice yield could be very
significant for large rice producers such as Indonesia, Thailand
and Vietnam.
Water Availability
 Climate change may affect the Southeast Asian monsoon and
the seasonal pattern of rainfall. Incidence of drought will
increase but this does not mean decrease of average annual
amount of rainfall.
4oC Global Temperature Rise: impacts on Southeast Asia
Sea Level Rise
 Highly populated and low-lying delta areas along the Southeast
.
Asian coast are particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise such as
Bangkok Manila, Jakarta and Ho Chi Minh City.
Marine Ecosystem
 Could be fundamentally altered by ocean acidification and could
have a significant impact on fisheries.
 Many communities in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia
and the Philippines rely on fisheries for their income
4oC Global Temperature Rise: impacts on Southeast Asia
Health
 More . incidences of heat-related illness, including heat stress,
strokes and cardiovascular disorders. City populations (such as in
Jakarta, Manila, Bangkok) may be particularly at risk from rising
temperatures.
 Vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue fever may
change in geographical spread, and the duration of the
transmission seasons could lengthen.
4oC Global Temperature Rise: impacts on Southeast Asia
Mekong Delta
 The global average sea-level could rise by up to 80 cm by the end
.
of the century and such sea-level rises could submerge the
lowest parts of the delta
 It could also increase the threat of saline intrusion and storm
surge damage to rice crops across the region.
Multiple climate hazard map of Southeast Asia
.
Source: Arief Anshory Yusuf & Herminia A. Francisco, 2009
Human (population density) and ecological (protected areas)
sensitivity map of Southeast Asia (2000)
.
Source: Arief Anshory Yusuf & Herminia A. Francisco, 2009
Adaptive capacity map of Southeast Asia (2005)
.
Source: Arief Anshory Yusuf & Herminia A. Francisco, 2009
Climate change vulnerability map of Southeast Asia
.
Source: Arief Anshory Yusuf & Herminia A. Francisco, 2009
Example of Vulnerability
.
(a) Myanmar’s overall climate change vulnerability index (taking into account
areas and socio-economic sectors most at risk); and (b) climate change
vulnerability index for Myanmar considering population density.
Example of Vulnerability
.
SEA Countries Responses
 Least Developed Countries: Formulated National
Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA)
.
 National Communication: All SEA Countries, except
Brunei Darussalam
 Technology Need Assessment: Most SEA Countries
 Emergence of new institution: Setting up national
institution at higher level to address climate change.
Adaptation Priorities: sectors and technologies
 Agriculture:
 Promotion of locally relevant technologies, climate-resilient
rice. crop varieties, crop diversification, improvement of
technologies and ex/in-situ conservation of plant genetic
resources - rural and subsistence farmers (Myanmar, Indonesia,
Vietnam, Thailand)
 Development and improvement of small-scale aquaculture
ponds, promotion of household integrated farming,
community irrigation systems, soil conservation (Cambodia)
 Promote secondary professions to improve the livelihoods of
farmers affected by climate change induced natural disasters
(Lao PDR)
Adaptation Priorities: sectors and technologies
 Agriculture:
 Development of milkfish farming technology, cultivation
.
engineering
of beef cattle (Indonesia)
 Precision farming technology (Thailand)
 Plant genetics/plant breeding, shifting from rice to upland
grains, and shifting from triple cropping to double cropping and
a shrimp/fish/poultry crop (Vietnam)
 Precision water management and drainage to ensure sufficient
water availability for both agriculture and other uses, precision
farming technology (Malaysia, Thailand)
Adaptation Priorities: sectors and technologies
 Agriculture:
 CC resilience of agriculture and fisheries production and
.
distribution
systems, and communities (Philippines)
 Climate-sensitive agriculture and fisheries policies, plans
and programs formulated.
 Enhanced capacity for CCA and DRR of government,
farming and fishing communities and industry.
Adaptation Priorities: sectors and technologies
 Water Resources:
 Constructing small-scale water reservoir (flood control and
increasing water supplies for local communities) (Myanmar,
Cambodia)
 Rehabilitation/construction/improvement of a multiple-use
reservoir, dam, flood protection dikes, waterways, drainage
and water gates (Cambodia, Singapore, Lao PDR, Malaysia,
Vietnam)
 Rainwater harvesting, wells for domestic water supply,
household water treatment and safe storage (Cambodia,
Vietnam)
 Enabling policy, knowledge and capacity for IWRM, water
supply and demand management of water improved
(Philippines, Malaysia)
Adaptation Priorities: sectors and technologies
 Water Resources:
 Awareness raising on water and water resource management,
strengthen institutional and human resource capacities
related to water and water resource management (Lao PDR)
 Water resources model - Groundwater flow modeling with
MODFLOW and related programs (Indonesia)
 Networking (via pipes or canals) and management of
infrastructures (Malaysia)
Adaptation Priorities: sectors and technologies
 Forest:
 Reforestation in degraded/sensitive forest areas, degraded
watershed areas for ecosystem resilience and rural livelihoods
(Myanmar)
 Continue the slash and burn eradication programme and
permanent job creation program (Lao PDR)
 Strengthen capacity of village forestry volunteers in forest
planting, caring and management techniques as well as the use
of village forests (Lao PDR)
 Plant science/plant genetics and agroforestry
Adaptation Priorities: sectors and technologies
 Biodiversity:
 Buffering marine habitats and sustaining fish populations
through community-based MPA management and ecosystem
sensitive fishery practices (Myanmar)
 Mainstreaming ecosystem-based climate change adaptation
for buffering rural communities into policy, planning and
relevant projects (Myanmar)
 Management and conservation of protected areas and key
biodiversity areas (Philippines)
 Capacity for integrated ecosystem-based management
approach in protected areas and key biodiversity areas
(Philippines)
Adaptation Priorities: sectors and technologies
 Coastal Zone:
 Adaptation to climate change through Integrated Coastal Zone
Management (ICZM) (Myanmar, Vietnam)
 Mangrove reforestation, restoration for resilient ecosystems
and rural livelihoods (Myanmar, Cambodia)
 Community and household water supply in coastal provinces
(Cambodia)
 Rehabilitation of multiple-use canals, coastal protection
infrastructure, reclamation (Cambodia, Singapore, Indonesia,
Vietnam)
Adaptation Priorities: sectors and technologies
 Cross Cutting - Early Warning System:
 Improving weather observation capacity - weather radar
system (Myanmar, Lao PDR)
 Developing (flood and drought) early warning system - local
communities (Myanmar, Thailand, Lao PDR, Vietnam)
 Vegetation planting for flood and windstorm protection
(Cambodia)
 Strengthening of community disaster preparedness and
response capacity (Cambodia)
 Strengthen the capacity of the National Disaster Management
Committees (Lao PDR)
Multiple sector and issues: responses inter-linkage
Environmental Sustainability
sustaining the provision of ecosystem services
(provision of food water, fuel, climate regulation)
Climate Change
(temperature rise; variation
in rainfall and precipitation;
changes in sea level;
salinity intrusion)
Alam, M., 2011
Disaster Risk Reduction
(natural e.g. flood, drought,
cyclone and storm surges,
earthquake etc; man-made e.g.
oil spillage, nuclear etc.)
• Ecosystem based adaptation (coastal,
mountain, dry land, river basin);
• Reduction of emission from
deforestation and forest degradation;
• Management of marine ecosystem
(blue carbon)
• Multi-hazard and risk mapping;
• Local level capacity building for
disaster preparedness and
environmental management
• Improvement of systematic
observation and monitoring;
• Improve local level plan, design and
implementation;
• Information and communication;
• Integrated coastal zone management;
• Integrated watershed management;
• Conservation, protection and
management of ecosystems and
services.
• Improvement of early warning
systems;
• Improvement of modeling and
forecasting of short-term and longterm phenomenon;
• Development of drought, flood,
salinity resilient crop variety
Adaptation: Estimated costs per sector
Sector
Study
UNFCCC (2007)
Parry et al (2009)
World Bank (2010)a
Agriculture,
forestry, fisheries
$7
$7
$6
Water resources
$9
Much higher than
other two studies
$11
Human health
$5
At least $10
$3
Coastal zones
$5
$10
$29
Infrastructure
$22-41
$65-154
$29
Extreme events
$2
$2
$7
Fisheries
$2
$2
$2
Ecosystems
$2
$33-40a
$2
$54-73
>$129-225
$80-90b
Total
Adaptation: Distribution
Source: Climate Funds Update 2012
THANK YOU !
For more information:
Mozaharul Alam
Regional Climate Change Coordinator
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
Email: [email protected]
Web: www.unep.org/climatechange