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MET 112 MET 112 Global Climate Change: Lecture 11 Energy & Climate Change Mitigation Outline: Dr. Eugene Cordero Energy use Mitigation Kyoto Protocol Strategies 1 In one of the articles we read this week, what was the mitigation strategy suggested. Solar Wind Carbon trading Carbon credits Wedges 0% W ed g es its 0% cr ed ar bo n tra d n ar bo C 0 of 5 0% in g in d 0% W So la r 0% C 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 10 In the reading from Time magazine, what approach is California using 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Volunteer reduction of emission. Development of nuclear Reduction of aerosol emission from trucks Conversion to solar in all city buildings Cap and trading of carbon emissions Both 1 and 3 Both 2 and 5 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% rr e el op duc R tio m ed n uc ent o. tio o .. f C n nu on o cl ve fa ea rs er r io C os ap n ol ... an to s d ol tra ar di i ng n... of B c. ot .. h 1 an B ot d h 3 2 an d 5 0% 0% ev D Vo 0 of 5 lu n te e 10 Energy and Climate Change MET 112 Obviously, one of the main issues related to climate change is the burning of fossil fuels Thus, energy use, and the continuing demand for energy are central to the challenges of climate change. 5 MET 112 6 Tons of CO2 emitted per person US CO2 Emissions MET 112 Total emissions ~ 5,788.5 million metric tons ~ 22 metric tons per person Industry: 35% Transportation: 33% Residences: 18% Commercial: 14% 1,600 million metric tons due to personal use (~33%) 10 Average US Personal Energy Use (Per Person) MET 112 Automobile fuel: 38 gallons per month Natural Gas: 15 therms per month Electricity: 190 Kilowatt-hours per month Airline Miles flown 147 miles per month Total: Latest estimate ~ Kyoto allowance (for US): ~ To stabilize climate (550ppm) 11 Average US Personal Energy Use (Per Person) MET 112 Automobile fuel: 38 gallons per month Natural Gas: 15 therms per month Electricity: 190 Kilowatt-hours per month Airline Miles flown 147 miles per month Total: Latest estimate ~ 17,600 lbs of CO2 Kyoto allowance (for US): ~11,000 pounds To stabilize climate (550ppm) 4,700 pounds 12 MET 112 13 MET 112 14 MET 112 15 Questions MET 112 1. What percentage of electricity generation comes from the burning of natural gas? 2. What percentage of transportation energy comes from natural gas burning? 3. What percentage of transportation energy use comes from coal? 4. If you buy an electric car, what is the mostly likely source of energy? 5. Where does most residential energy come from? 16 What percentage of electricity generation comes from the burning of natural gas? 5% 10% 17% 61% 0% 0% 0. 61 0% 0. 17 0 of 5 0. 05 0% 0. 1 1. 2. 3. 4. MET 112 17 If you buy an electric car, what is the most likely energy source MET 112 1. Natural gas 2. Coal 3. Petroleum m 0% tro le u C oa l 0% Pe at u N 0 of 5 ra l ga s 0% 18 Mitigation of climate change MET 112 Mitigation: – Steps taken to avoid or minimize negative environmental impacts. Mitigation can include: – avoiding the impact by not taking a certain action; – minimizing impacts by limiting the degree or magnitude of the action; – rectifying the impact by repairing or restoring the affected environment 20 The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change ‘stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic human induced interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a timeframe sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner’ MET 112 22 Figure: Courtesy of IPCC Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis WGI contribution to IPCC Third Assessment Report MET 112 Summary for Policymakers (SPM) Drafted by a team of 59 Approved ‘sentence by sentence’ by WGI plenary (99 Governments and 45 scientists) 14 chapters 881 pages 120 Lead Authors 515 Contributing Authors 4621 References quoted 24 IPCC Assessment Report MET 112 IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming). – Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing (cooling) “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate” (IPCC) 1997 "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities .“ (IPCC), 2001 (IPCC) 2007 25 IPCC Assessment Report MET 112 IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming). – Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing (cooling) “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate” (IPCC) 1997 "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities .“ (IPCC), 2001 The IPCC finds that it is “very likely” that emissions of heattrapping gases from human activities have caused “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century. (IPCC) 2007 26 Human Responsibility for Climate Change The IPCC finds that it is “very likely” that emissions of heat-trapping gases from human activities have caused “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century.” Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers. The Kyoto Protocol MET 112 A United Nations sponsored effort: – Calls for reductions of greenhouse gas emissions by industrialized countries of 5.2 per cent below 1990 levels. – The Protocol will go into force after 1. The protocol has been ratified by a minimum of 55 countries. 2. The ratifying nations comprise 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions. – Current status: 156 countries have signed accounting for 61% of global CO2. US not planning on signing protocol (US accounts for 36% of CO2 emitted) Kyoto protocol went into force in Feb 2005 29 Articles of the Kyoto Protocol Aim: – Ways to reduce increasing GHG Goals: – MET 112 Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy 31 MET 112 32 Articles of the Kyoto Protocol Aim: – Ways to reduce increasing GHG Goals: – – MET 112 Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy Protection and enhancement of sinks 33 MET 112 34 Articles of the Kyoto Protocol Aim: – Ways to reduce increasing GHG Goals: – – – MET 112 Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy Protection and enhancement of sinks Promote sustainable agriculture 35 MET 112 36 Articles of the Kyoto Protocol Aim: – Ways to reduce increasing GHG Goals: – – – – – MET 112 Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy Protection and enhancement of sinks Promote sustainable agriculture Research and promote new and renewable energy 37 MET 112 38 MET 112 39 Articles of the Kyoto Protocol Aim: – Ways to reduce increasing GHG Goals: – – – – – – MET 112 Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy Protection and enhancement of sinks Promote sustainable agriculture Research and promote new and renewable energy Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’ 44 Articles of the Kyoto Protocol Aim: – Ways to reduce increasing GHG Goals: – – – – – – MET 112 Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy Protection and enhancement of sinks Promote sustainable agriculture Research and promote new and renewable energy Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’ Encourage ‘good practices’ 46 Articles of the Kyoto Protocol Aim: – Ways to reduce increasing GHG Goals: – – – – – – – MET 112 Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy Protection and enhancement of sinks Promote sustainable agriculture Research and promote new and renewable energy Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’ Encourage ‘good practices’ Cut GHG from aviation 49 Articles of the Kyoto Protocol (II) MET 112 Keep to assigned amounts of GHG with overall worldwide reduction by at least 5% below 1990 levels by 2008-2012 Countries can meet their commitments together Joint implementation -Countries can work together to meet their emission reduction targets. Richer (annex 1) countries can help developing countries to achieve sustainable development and limit GHG increases and then claim some emission reductions for their own targets Emissions trading - countries can trade in ‘emission units’ 51 Kyoto Targets MET 112 Industrialized countries will reduce their collective emissions by 5.2% compared to the year 1990 Note that compared to the emissions levels by 2010 without the Protocol, this target represents ~30% cut). Calculated as an average – over the five-year period of 2008-12. Target includes six greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, HFCs, and PFCs 53 Kyoto Targets(2) MET 112 National targets – European Union - 8% below 1990 levels – USA - 7% below 1990 – Japan - 6% below 1990 – Russia 0% (stay at 1990 levels) – Australia 8% over 1990 levels) – Developing countries (no target) China, India etc. 55 Kyoto Targets: Developing countries MET 112 The UN Framework on Climate has agreed: 1. The largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases – 2. Per capita emissions in developing countries – 3. The share of global emissions originating in developing countries – will grow to meet their social and development needs. 56 Kyoto Targets: Developing countries MET 112 The UN Framework on Climate has agreed: 1. The largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases – has originated in developed countries; 2. Per capita emissions in developing countries – are still relatively low; 3. The share of global emissions originating in developing countries – will grow to meet their social and development needs. 57 Emissions Trading MET 112 Each country has an emission limit. If this country cannot meet it’s target, it may purchase carbon credits from other countries (on the open market) who are under their limit. This financially rewards countries that meet their targets. Countries also receive carbon credits through – – 58 Emissions Trading MET 112 Each country has an emission limit. If this country cannot meet it’s target, it may purchase carbon credits from other countries (on the open market) who are under their limit. This financially rewards countries that meet their targets. Example of Russia Countries also receive carbon credits through – clean energy programs (i.e. greentags) – carbon dioxide sinks (i.e. forests, oceans) 59 Main reasons the US will not sign the Kyoto Protocol? Economic burden No limits on developing countries (i.e. China, India) Protocol is not going to help much "We will not do anything that harms our economy, because first things first are the people who live in America" - President Bush Solutions - government Kyoto Protocol California potential leader MET 112 63 MET 112 64 MET 112 65 Solutions - personal Transportation Home Food Consumption www.earthday.net : Top 10 Actions; Ecological Footprint MET 112 67 Four R’s MET 112 1. Rethink 2. Reduce 3. Reuse 4. Recycle 68 Solutions - Consumption MET 112 Question your consumption urges Material versus service based economy Buy products that are in line with your values 70 MET 112 71 MET 112 72 Questions MET 112 1. Is there scientific agreement that humans are causing global warming? Is this consensus reflected in the media and political arena? Why do you think there is a discrepancy?? 2. Does our society have the ability and capacity to solve the problem of global warming? Give some examples. 3. How important is the issue of global warming to our civilization? Who should care? 73 MET 112 74