Download Violent Radicalization The Case of Bangladesh

IES - Climate Change & Security at Copenhagen - II
The Contribution of the Global Security Community to
Success
Brussels, 7 -8 October 2009
Glacial melt in the Hindu Kush/
Himalayas/ Tibetan Plateau- A case
study in the geopolitical and
environmental security
Major General ANM Muniruzzaman, ndc, psc (Retd)
President
Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS)
1
2
Glacial melt--




The temperature increase in the Himalayan region has
been greater than the global average of 0.74 °C over
the last 100 years (IPCC 2007).
The higher the altitude the more rapid the warming.
This ongoing rapid warming has a profound effect on
the Himalayan environment.
Retreat of glacier tongues has led to the formation of
glacial lakes.
The resulting glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) can
cause damage to life, property, forests, farms and
infrastructure.
3
Glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Himalayas
4
The melting glaciers in the Himalayas





Glaciers in the Himalayas are receding faster than in any other parts
of the world.
In Northwest China, 27% of the glacier area will decline by 2050
(equivalent to an ice volume of 16,184 km3), as will 10 to 15% of the
frozen soil area.
IPCC made a forecast that if current trends continue, 80% of
Himalayan glaciers will be gone in 30 years; recent estimates
suggest this loss in 50 years.
The current trends of glacial melt suggest that the Ganges, Indus,
Brahmaputra and other rivers across the northern Indian plain could
likely become seasonal rivers in the near future.
Between 20 and 40% reduction of runoff per capita is likely by the
end of 21st century in the NW provinces of China.
5
Himalayan glaciers are shrinking more rapidly than
elsewhere
Source: Dyurgerov and Meier 2005
6
Snow-cover change in the Himalayas
7
Snow-cover change in the Himalayas
8
Glacial melting in Tibetan Plateau






Glacier recession on the Tibetan Plateau has quickened,
triggering a series of environmental calamities.
Winters are not as cold as before.
Warmer climate has sparked an onset of epidemic
diseases
Water in summer is no longer as clean as before.
Tibetan plateau is home to an expanse of glaciers
measuring 59,425 square kilometers.
But now the glaciers are shrinking by 131 square
kilometers yearly.
9
Rongbuk Glacier in Tibet
10
The melting glaciers: impacts on water



As glaciers melt, river runoff will initially increase in
winter or spring but will eventually decrease as a result
of loss of ice resources
This is likely to be unfavourable for downstream
agriculture
This could seriously affect half a billion people in the
Hindu-Kush-Himalaya region and a quarter billion people
in China who depend on glacial melt for their water
supplies.
11
High dependence of major South Asian
countries on transboundary surface water
12
River basins of the Hindu Kush-Himalayas
13
Experts Opine that-




Glacier change is an indicator of climate change
Regular monitoring of glaciers including mass balance is
necessary
Monitoring of glacial lakes and adaptation and mitigation
measures for potentially dangerous glacial lakes are
required.
The development of a dynamic and regional database on
glaciers and glacial lakes will greatly enhance the
understanding of global and regional climate trends.
Regional cooperation is necessary for systematic
research on snow and ice and water
14
Impacts on Human Life:





The most marginalized (mountain communities and ethnic
minorities, etc.) and vulnerable groups will suffer the most from.
Impact on biodiversity and affect on people’s diet, nutritional
status and nutrition related health problems.
Infectious diseases, particularly the insect vector-borne diseases
such as malaria, dengue fever and Japanese encephalitis are
sensitive to the impact of climate change.
Agriculture, particularly rain-fed agriculture is highly sensitive to
climate change.
Increase in temperature may reduce the crop yield, particularly
of cereal crops, and therefore cause food shortage.
15
Geopolitical and Environmental Security
aspect









Conflict over possession of natural resource.
Socio-political and economic unrest.
Migration en masse.
Regional disintegration.
Inter and/ or Intra-state conflict.
Loss of biodiversity.
Loss of human habitat.
Extinction of species.
From ‘Nuclear Winter’ to ‘Carbon Summer’.
16
Affects of global warming in Bangladesh






If nothing is done to curb emissions, sea
levels could climb more than three feet.
15% of Bangladesh could be under water if
sea water rises 1 feet.
The mangrove forests of Sundarban
islands, a world heritage site, the Bengal
tiger and hundreds of bird species may
disappear.
Tens of millions of Internally Displaced
Persons(IDPs).
Bangladesh’s food supply is already
threatened by flooding due to melting
glaciers in some areas and droughts due to
heat in others.
Environmental issues can also fuel violence
and political unrest.
Source:http://www.askasia.org/
17
Sea Level Rise: Worst Case Scenario
18
Recommendations





Need to reduce scientific uncertainty.
Reduce risk from seasonal and flash floods.
Support community-based adaptation and
disaster management.
Need to promote regional co-operation in water
resource management.
Need to do policy advocacy at national and
regional levels.
19
Thank you
Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security
Studies (BIPSS)
20