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2011 GreenGov Symposium Oct. 31 ‐ Nov. 2, 2011 Washington Hilton Washington, DC Climate Impacts on the Newport News Shipyard Glenn Higgins Manager, Environmental Sciences & Engineering Department Northrop Grumman Climate Risk & Resilience – Session 5 Assessing Climate Related Risks in the Supply Chain Climate Impacts on the Newport News Shipyard November 1, 2011 Climate Change Issues Overview Examples of Climate Change Impact Areas • Department of Defense – Readiness, Sustainment, Energy, Water • Infrastructure – Planning, Operations, Maintenance, Insurance, Energy, Water • Economic Activities –Manufacturing, Recreation, Agriculture, Transportation • Health & Safety – Preparedness and mitigation, disease vectors, heat stress Northrop Grumman’s Initiative: Long‐term program to develop and productize climate decision aids to support needs outside and inside the company Climate Risk & Resilience – Session 5 Assessing Climate Related Risks in the Supply Chain Climate Impacts on the Newport News Shipyard November 1, 2011 Climate Change Issues: Newport News Newport News Shipyard • Nation’s sole Nuclear Aircraft Carrier construction and maintenance capability • In Existence since early 1800’s • A Northrop Grumman Sector until March, 2011 Major industrial facility with associated supporting economy • 20,000 Employees in Virginia • Largest Dry‐dock and Crane in Western Hemisphere • Historical responsibility for over 800 Ships, including 30 Aircraft Carriers Dry‐dock doors were overtopped by storm surge and waves during Hurricane Isabel in 2003, highlighting sensitivity to Sea Level Rise Climate Risk & Resilience – Session 5 Assessing Climate Related Risks in the Supply Chain Newport News Shipyard April, 2010 Climate Impacts on the Newport News Shipyard November 1, 2011 Hurricane Isabel Newport News Shipyard April, 2010 Climate Risk & Resilience – Session 5 Assessing Climate Related Risks in the Supply Chain Climate Impacts on the Newport News Shipyard November 1, 2011 Sea Level at Sewell's Point Sewell's Point is the NOAA Tidal Gauge Station at Norfolk , VA. It is nearby to both the Norfolk Naval Station and to the Newport News Shipyard A B F D C E G Trends show: Steadily increasing Mean Sea Level through the Century, carrying storm surges higher Well‐known Tidal Peaks: A. 1933 Cat 2 Hurricane B. 1936 Cat 2 Hurricane C. 1956 Nor’Easter D. 1962 “Ash Wednesday” Storm E. 1998 Nor’Easter F. 2003 Hurricane Isabel G. 2009 “Son of Ida” Nor’Easter Climate Risk & Resilience – Session 5 Assessing Climate Related Risks in the Supply Chain Climate Impacts on the Newport News Shipyard November 1, 2011 Tidal Record Modeling and Application of Extreme Value Theory • Extreme Value Theory* offers a distributional model of the tail of a distribution of specific types of statistics. These statistics generally follow the form of the single largest value out of an observed set of values – i.e., the extreme value of the set, such as the highest tide of the month or year. • The Gumbel Distribution shows the probability p of observing at or above a given extreme value y is approximately linear w.r.t. the negative-logarithm of the negative-logarithm of the probability on the upper tail with two shape parameters, here given as intercept A and slope B. • For tidal gauge data, the highest water level recorded in a month fits this form, and can be modeled using a linear-regression to recover the shape parameters A and B. Shape Fitted over Tail Section A=1.191 B=0.07083 Data resorted into probability order Dis trib B on u ti od D but istri io n Tail y Common Events (biennial or more frequent) Rare Events (biennial or less frequent) San Francisco Bay Example y = A + B(−log(−log(p))) * Gumbel, E.J. 1954. Statistical Theory of Extreme Values and Some Practical Applications. Applied Mathematics Series 33. U.S. Department of Commerce, National Bureau of Standards. Climate Risk & Resilience – Session 5 6Assessing Climate Related Risks in the Supply Chain Climate Impacts on the Newport News Shipyard November 1, 2011 Sea Level Rise Impacts Probability that Tide at Sewells Pt exceeds Some value value Someassuming assuming value (1927-2009) sea-level rise rise some 13 ftft sea-level Fitting Gumbel Parameters allows us to estimate frequencies of extreme storm surges over and above the mean sea level Modest levels of rise on the average increase the frequency of specific extreme events dramatically 7 Climate Risk & Resilience – Session 5 Assessing Climate Related Risks in the Supply Chain Average Years Between Flooding Events Event Severity Sea Level Rise (Ft) Flood Gauge Stage Level 0 1 2 3 Action 4.50 0.70 0.15 0.09 0.08 Flood 5.00 1.71 0.33 0.10 0.08 Moderate 6.00 7.32 1.71 0.33 0.10 Major 7.00 26.83 7.32 1.71 0.33 Record 8.02 80.50 26.83 7.32 1.71 Disaster 9.00 ~ 80.50 26.83 7.32 Climate Impacts on the Newport News Shipyard November 1, 2011 Global Sea Level Rise Sea Level Rise is a Global Concern Oceanic Volume Increases from thermal expansion of the water column Post Glacial Rebound steadily lowering continental plate edges with the Ice‐Age ice mass now removed Sea Level Change from 1950 – 2000 (mm) Climate Risk & Resilience – Session 5 Assessing Climate Related Risks in the Supply Chain Icecap melt increases total water content of Oceans – main Anthropogenic sea level driver Climate Impacts on the Newport News Shipyard November 1, 2011 Norfolk Area Inundation Recurrence The Hampton‐Roads Economic Region supports the Newport News Shipyard and Norfolk Naval Station •Climate change impacts on the region affect the long term sustainability of the Shipyard beyond the direct flooding of the Dry‐docks •Inundation of local and regional residences, businesses, transportation facilities, and other supporting infrastructure impact the long term operational sustainment of this critical national asset Inundation recurrence in the Norfolk Region overlaid on infrastructure base-maps Year 2000 at Nominal Sea Level Climate Risk & Resilience – Session 5 Assessing Climate Related Risks in the Supply Chain 2100 with One Meter of Sea Level Rise Climate Impacts on the Newport News Shipyard November 1, 2011 BACKUPS Additional Material Newport News Shipyard April, 2010 Climate Risk & Resilience – Session 5 Assessing Climate Related Risks in the Supply Chain Climate Impacts on the Newport News Shipyard November 1, 2011 Sea Level Rise San Francisco Bay Area San Francisco Monthly Highest Tides Return Period (Years) map for San Francisco Bay Area for Monthly Highest Tides •Historical level steadily rising due to soil subsidence, post-glacial continental plate rebounding, and general oceanic volume increase •Peaks Over Threshold technique shows trends in return periods of monthly highest tides • Storms of historical severity creating higher tides • Historical high tides being regenerated by less severe storms •Possibility of significant additional anthropogenic forced rise compounds high-confidence historical sea level rise processes Significant risks to established property and infrastructure Current Case is derived from historical trends and compared to 100-meter resolution terrain Historical Trend plus Half-meter Rise Effect to 2100 100-Year Returns iod Severity Return Per Historical Station Datum Change Increasing Measured Highest Tides & Standout Storms Mean Sea Level Records 10-Year Returns Potential Future Rise Historical Rise Illustrative Case is derived from historical trends and asserted one-half meter Sea Level Rise by 2100 Climate Risk & Resilience – Session 5 Assessing Climate Related Risks in the Supply Chain Climate Impacts on the Newport News Shipyard November 1, 2011 Society and ecosystems indicators: Heat Stress and heat related deaths Mean number of days per year with heat index > 105°F Current (1980-1989) Future - Current 5 to 50 day increase Future (2060-2069) Use: City planning, emergency planning, public facility planning, HVAC planning 12Climate Risk & Resilience – Session 5 Assessing Climate Related Risks in the Supply Chain Climate Impacts on the Newport News Shipyard November 1, 2011 Weather and climate change indicators: Heat waves Mean summer days spent in a heat wave (1980s) Mean summer days spent in a heat wave (future-current) Mean summer days spent in a heat wave (2060s) • Heat waves have caused more deaths than all other weather events. • A heat wave is defined as 3+ consecutive days when the high temperature is 10+ degrees (Fahrenheit) higher than mean summer high temperature Use: Urban planning, emergency planning Climate Risk & Resilience – Session 5 1Assessing Climate Related Risks in the Supply Chain 3 Climate Impacts on the Newport News Shipyard November 1, 2011