Download evidence of climate change

PRE-ASSESSMENT
 Please answer the questions in this pre-
assessment of the Evidence of Climate Change
section of the Climate Change Unit. Remember,
you are not expected to know most of this
material. Using your current knowledge, answer
the questions to the best of your ability. This
assessment will be given again at the conclusion
of this section.
 GOOD LUCK!!!
PRE-ASSESSMENT QUESTIONS
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Unit: Evidence of Climate Change
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Pre-Assessment
Answer the questions below to the best of your knowledge and understanding. Remember, you are not expected to k now all
questions at this point. This assessment will be administered again at the end of this unit to measure your understanding of the
subject matter.
Name three anomalies in nature that indicate evidence of climate change and briefly explain how each impacts the Earth.
Atmospheric moisture has increased 5% in the past 50 years due to increased global temperatures increasing evaporation rates in
the oceans. Some scientists believe this increased moisture could cause increased cloud cover above the surface of the earth thus
allowing more of the Sun’s rays to reflect back into space lowering global temperatures. Give a counter argument to this notion
using the properties of water vapor as evidence for your counter argument.
Explain how melting sea ice can expedite the rate of global warming while not effecting sea level rise.
Which areas on Earth account for 99% of all surface ice on Earth and explain what effects the melting of these areas would have
on global sea levels.
Explain the mechanism that is causing the oceans to become more acidic and describe the possible consequences of an ocean
that is more acidic to the atmosphere and to marine ecosystems.
Describe the conditions that produce extreme weather events globally and their impact on the human species by these extreme
weather events.
Evidence of Climate Change Warm-Up
 Evidence of climate change is all around us and in the
news. Can you identify any evidence of climate
change?
 Choose a partner and “brainstorm” on the evidence
that supports the notion that our planet is going
through a climate change and give examples.
 List your evidence and examples on a piece of paper
- try to prioritize by severity with the most severe
first.
 After 5 minutes – let’s see what we’ve come up with
EVIDENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
 Global warming of Atmosphere
 Ocean Warming
 Shrinking Ice Sheets
 Glacial Retreat
 Declining Arctic Sea-Ice
 Sea-level rise
 Extreme Weather Events
 Ocean Acidification
 Loss of Biodiversity
STATE STANDARDS
 DE State Science Standard 1: Nature and Application of
Science and Technology:
 Scientific inquiry involves asking scientifically-oriented questions,
collecting evidence, forming explanations, connecting explanations to
scientific knowledge and theory, and communicating and justifying the
explanation
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GLE:
 Collect accurate and precise data through the selection and use of tools
and technologies appropriate to the investigations. Display and organize
data through the use of tables, diagrams, graphs, and other organizers
that allow analysis and comparison with known information and allow for
replication of results.
 Construct logical scientific explanations and present arguments which
defend proposed explanations through the use of closely examined
evidence
STATE STANDARDS
 DE State Standards:
 STD 8 – Ecology –
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Matter needed to sustain life is continually recycled
among and between organisms and the environment.
 Illustrate how elements on Earth cycle among the biotic and
abiotic components of the biosphere
 Organisms and their environments are interconnected.
Changes in one part of the system will affect other parts of
the system
Explain how feedback loops keep ecosystems (at the
local and global level) in a state of dynamic equilibrium (e.g.,
positive and negative feedback loops associated with global
climate)
Next Generation Science Standards
 HS. Human Sustainability
 HS-ESS3-1 – Construct an explanation based on evidence for how
the availability of natural resources, occurrence of natural hazards,
and changes in climate have influenced human activity
 HS-ESS3-6 – Use a computational representation to illustrate the
relationship among Earth systems and how those relationships are
being modified due to human activity
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Amount of carbon dioxide produced and the amount of carbon dioxide
sequestered
 HS-ESS3-4 – Evaluate or refine a technological solution that
reduces impacts of human activities on natural systems
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Anthropogenic Carbon sequestration
LESSON OBJECTIVE
To identify evidence associated
with climate change and
evaluate the impact of this
evidence on global ecological
systems presently and potential
future impacts.
CONCEPT/ESSENTIAL QUESTION
 Concept: Measureable climate change evidence is
indicating that global changes in earth systems are
impacting all life forms on earth presently and
illustrates trends of potential future devastation to
earth’s biosphere.
 Essential Question: If the feedback loop of global
warming evidenced on earth today continues to
expedite in a positive direction what recourse would
humans have when this positive feedback reaches a
“tipping point”?
KEY VOCABULARY
 Global warming Feedback Loop – the rising
temperature on the Earth changes the environment in
ways that then create even more heat. Scientists
consider feedback loops the single-biggest threat to
civilization from global warming. ABC News
 Tipping point - the critical point in an evolving
situation that leads to a new and irreversible
development
 Subsidence-the motion of a surface (usually, the
Earth's surface) as it shifts downward relative to a
datum such as sea-level.
TEMPERATURE PUZZLE VIDEO
CLICK PIC
MAJOR INDICATORS
THE EVIDENCE
 1. Global Warming
WHAT IS GLOBAL WARMING?
 Global warming is the increase of Earth's average surface
temperature due to greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide
emissions from burning fossil fuels or from deforestation, which
trap heat that would otherwise escape from Earth.
 Ice cores drawn from Greenland, Antarctica, and tropical
mountain glaciers show that the Earth’s climate responds to
changes in solar output, in the Earth’s orbit, and in
greenhouse gas levels.
 Greenhouse gases keep heat close to the earth’s surface making
it livable for humans and animals. However, global warming is
mainly due to over emitting of large quantities of these gases
mostly from fossil fuel burning (natural gas, crude oil, and coal).
SCIENCTIFIC EVIDENCE COLLECTION
 The evidence of climate change is
typically obtained from ice cores,
analysis of stable isotopes as well as
other sediments, temperature profiles
of boreholes, sea level records, glacial
processes and flora and fauna records.
SOME EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING
TAKING EARTH’S TEMPERATURE VIDEO
 CLICK PIC
GLOBAL WARMING FACTS
 The Earth's climate has changed throughout
history. Just in the last 650,000 years there have
been seven cycles of glacial advance and retreat,
with the abrupt end of the last ice age about 7,000
years ago marking the beginning of the modern
climate era — and of human civilization.
 Most of these climate changes are attributed to
very small variations in Earth’s orbit that change
the amount of solar energy our planet receives.
650,000 YEAR CO2 DATA
GLOBAL WARMING FACTS
 However, today’s global temperature rise does not fit
that model but is associated with emissions from the
burning of fossil fuels, mainly carbon dioxide.
 Temperatures have risen during the last 30 years, and
2000 to 2009 was the warmest decade ever
recorded. As the Earth warms up, heat waves are
becoming more common in some places, including the
United States.
 Heat waves happen when a region experiences very
high temperatures for several days and nights.
GLOBAL WARMING FACTS
 According to the U.S. Global Change Research Program,
the atmospheric temperature in the U.S. has increased by 2
degrees in the last 50 years and precipitation by 5
percent.
 All three major global surface temperature reconstructions
show that Earth has warmed since 1880. Most of this
warming has occurred since the 1970s, with the 20 warmest
years having occurred since 1981 and with all 10 of the
warmest years occurring in the past 12 years. Even
though the 2000s witnessed a solar output decline
resulting in an unusually deep solar minimum in
2007-2009, surface temperatures continue to increase.
DISPELLING the MISCONCEPTION of SOLAR
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH GLOBAL WARMING
GLOBAL WARMING FACTS
 If people keep adding greenhouse gases into the
atmosphere at the current rate, the average
temperature around the world could increase by
about 4 to 12°F by the year 2100.
 If we make big changes, like using more
renewable resources instead of fossil fuels, the
increase will be less—about 2 to 5°F.
MODERN TREND of ATMOSPHERIC CO2
The carbon dioxide data (red curve), measured as the mole fraction in dry air
The black curve represents the seasonally corrected data.
What causes the spikes in the CO2 graph?
CO2 and TEMPERATURE
DEVIATION FROM AVERAGE TEMPS/RAINFALL JUNE 2013
TEMPERATUE CHANGES IN US
In most parts of the United States, the average air temperature has increased
since the early 20th century. Source: EPA's Climate Change Indicators (2012).
GLOBAL WARMING ACTIVITY
 Designing a Global Warming Experiment
 Evidence suggests that global warming is a
phenomenon that is brought on by an enhanced
greenhouse effect due to the build up of
greenhouse gasses like CO2, water vapor, and
methane in our atmosphere.
 AS NASA scientists, you have been given the task
of designing an experiment(s) to use as evidence
that increased amounts of greenhouse gases in
our atmosphere creates an enhanced greenhouse
effect which brings on global warming.
GLOBAL WARMING ACTIVITY
 Experimental Design
 1. Work in pairs
 2. Components of the experiment
 Purpose
 Background
 Equipment needed
 Procedure
 Safety precautions
 Data collection
 Conclusion
GLOBAL WARMING ACTIVITY
 Grading Components
 1. Written experiment with all components listed
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in previous slide.
2. Diagram of experimental set-up with labels
3. Predicted outcome (hypothesis)
4. Data record – temperature readings, gas levels,
graphs, etc.)
5. Conclusion – (compare to hypothesis)
6. Time: 45 minutes, possible points: 100
DAY 2 – WARM-UP ACTIVITY
 Some scientists believe that Arctic Sea Ice may
disappear completely by the year 2060. This will open
up the Arctic shipping lanes year round and allow
ships that used to have to go down to the Panama
Canal to just skirt across the Arctic Circle.
 Take 10 minutes to list the pros and the cons of this
happening. Include environmental as well as
economical aspects of the change.
 When all have finished, we will see how the rest of the
class feels.
THE EVIDENCE-2.OCEAN WARMING
The atmosphere affects oceans, and oceans influence the atmosphere. As the
temperature of the air rises, oceans absorb some of this heat and also
become warmer.
CARBON and the OCEANS VIDEO
CLICK PIC
OCEAN WARMING FACTS
 Overall, the world's oceans are warmer now than
at any point in the last 50 years. The change is
most obvious in the top layer of the ocean, which
has grown much warmer since the late 1800s. This
top layer is now getting warmer at a rate of 0.2°F
per decade.
 Oceans are expected to continue getting
warmer—both in the top layer and in deeper
waters. Even if people stop adding extra
greenhouse gases to the atmosphere now, oceans
will continue to get warmer for many years as they
slowly absorb extra heat from the atmosphere.
OCEAN WARMING FACTS
 Warmer oceans affect weather patterns, cause
more powerful tropical storms, and can
impact many kinds of sea life, such as corals
and fish.
 Warmer oceanic waters is resulting in
increased marine diseases and invasive
species, changes in weather systems,
modifications in species distribution patterns,
dead zones and coral bleaching.
OCEAN WARMING FACTS
 Larger and more frequent storms are accelerating
shoreline erosion, loss of community infrastructure,
increased fishing risks and adverse health
consequences.
 Warmer oceans are also one of the main causes of
rising sea level. As water warms it expands and creates
more volume.
 The surface ocean currently absorbs about one-fourth
of the CO2 emitted to the atmosphere from human
activities.
OCEAN TEMPS TODAY
The surface of the world's oceans has become warmer overall since 1880. In this
graph, the shaded band shows the likely temperature range, which depends on
the number of measurements and the methods used at different times.
Courtesy NASDA/NASA
GLOBAL OCEAN TEMPERATURES
OCEANS of CLIMATE CHANGE VIDEO
CLICK PIC
OCEAN WARMING ACTIVITY
 Looking at the Global Ocean
Temperature Map, list three places on
Earth that would have the highest rate of
carbon dioxide absorption and three
places that would have the lowest rates
of carbon dioxide absorption.
 Explain your answers.
 Which ocean areas would have the least
concentrations of salt and why?
THE EVIDENCE – 3.SHRINKING ICE SHEETS
ICE ON EARTH VIDEO
CLICK PIC
THE MAKING OF ICE ON EARTH
GLOBAL ICE SHEETS
 An ice sheet is a mass of glacial land ice extending
more than 50,000 square kilometers (20,000 square
miles). The two ice sheets on Earth today cover
most of Greenland and Antarctica.
 During the last ice age, ice sheets also covered much
of North America and Scandinavia.
 If the Greenland Ice Sheet melted, scientists
estimate that sea level would rise about 6 meters
(20 feet). If the Antarctic Ice Sheet melted, sea
level would rise by about 60 meters (200 feet).
CONTRIBUTORS TO SEA LEVEL RISE
Sea level rise contributors: Comparison of volume (white), area (grey) and
percent contribution to sea level rise (red) by small glaciers and ice caps, and
the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Image courtesy (Meier et al., 2007).
ANTARCTICA and GREENLAND ICE SHEETS
 Together, the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets
contain more than 99 percent of the freshwater ice on
Earth.
 The Antarctic Ice Sheet extends almost 14 million square
kilometers (5.4 million square miles), roughly the area
of the contiguous United States and Mexico
combined.
 The Antarctic Ice Sheet contains 30 million cubic
kilometers (7.2 million cubic miles) of ice.
 The Greenland Ice Sheet extends about 1.7 million
square kilometers (656,000 square miles), covering most
of the island of Greenland, three times the size of Texas.
SHRINKING ICE SHEETS
 The polar ice caps have melted faster in last 20
years than in the last 10,000. A comprehensive
satellite study confirms that the melting ice caps
are raising sea levels at an accelerating rate.
 Ice sheets are retreating. In the years 2002-2006,
Greenland lost approximately 150-250 cubic km. of
ice every year with Antarctica losing 152 cubic km.
between 2002-2005.
EFFECTS OF POLAR ICE MELT
 The polar regions are important drivers of the world's
climate. When the "everlasting ice" melts at an
increasing rate, the rest of the world is affected.
 Global sea levels are rising, dark melt-water pools
absorb warmth from the sun which white ice
would reflect back into space.
 Fresh water flows into the sea, changing ocean
currents and the living conditions for marine
organisms.
ICE MELT AND SEA LEVEL RISE
 According to the study, melting ice from both poles has
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been responsible for a fifth of the global rise in sea
levels since 1992, 11 millimeters in all.
The rest was caused by the thermal expansion of the
warming ocean, the melting of mountain glaciers, small
Arctic ice caps and groundwater mining.
The share of the polar ice melt, however, is rising.
The pattern of change differs considerably between the
Arctic and the Antarctic.
Two thirds of the ice loss is happening in Greenland.
The rate of ice loss from Greenland has increased almost
five-fold since the mid-1990s according to NASA.
GREENLAND ICE MELT EVIDENCE
Extent of surface melt over Greenland’s ice sheet on July 8 (left) and July 12 (right). Measurements from three
satellites showed that on July 8, about 40 percent of the ice sheet had undergone thawing at or near the
surface. In just a few days, the melting had dramatically accelerated and an estimated 97 percent of the ice
sheet surface had thawed by July 12. In the image, the areas classified as “probable melt” (light pink)
correspond to those sites where at least one satellite detected surface melting. The areas classified as “melt”
(dark pink) correspond to sites where two or three satellites detected surface melting. The satellites are
measuring different physical properties at different scales and are passing over Greenland at different times.
As a whole, they provide a picture of an extreme melt event about which scientists are very confident. Credit:
Nicolo E. DiGirolamo, SSAI/NASA GSFC, and Jesse Allen, NASA Earth Observatory
THE GREENLAND EFFECT
 Although the Greenland ice sheet is only about
one tenth the size of Antarctica, today it is
contributing twice as much ice to sea levels.
 This is probably because it is at a more equatorial
latitude, further from the North pole than
Antarctica from the South pole.
 The ice on Greenland is also melting on the
surface, because of increasing air temperatures.
THE GREENLAND EFFECT
 These warm waters are also beginning to melt the
underside of the floating fringes of the Greenland ice
sheet, even at great depths.
 It is these fringes that have been holding back large
amounts of ice locked up in the Greenland ice sheet,
and as this ice has been melting, the glaciers have
quickened their flow to the sea.
GREENLAND ICE
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On average in the summer, about half of the surface of
Greenland's ice sheet naturally melts.
 At high elevations, most of that melt water quickly
refreezes in place.
 Near the coast, some of the melt water is retained by
the ice sheet and the rest is lost to the ocean.
 But this year, 2013, the extent of ice melting at or near
the surface jumped dramatically.
THE BIG THAW IN GREENLAND
 According to satellite data, an estimated 97 percent of
the ice sheet surface thawed at some point in mid-July
of this year, 2013.
 The melting spread quickly. Melt maps derived from
the three satellites showed that on July 8, about 40
percent of the ice sheet's surface had melted.
 By July 12, 97 percent had melted.
WESTERN ANTARCTIC ICE SHEETS
 In the Antarctic, the situation is a more complex one.
 Scientists distinguish between the West and East,
which are being affected differently by climate change
 West Antarctica is losing ice at an accelerating rate.
Many of the region's glaciers are by the sea, which is
warming.
 It is only to be expected that the ice is melting faster
here.
EASTERN ANTARCTICA ICE SHEETS
 In the huge area of East Antarctica, the ice is mostly
above sea level. The air temperature is also much
lower, and the experts do not expect the ice to melt
on account of rising temperatures.
 In this part of Antarctica, the ice sheet is actually
growing as a consequence of increased snowfall.
 This has led some critics to question the global
warming theory.
 However, for NASA scientists, the changes are all
consistent with patterns of climate warming, which
leads to more evaporation from the oceans and in
turn more precipitation, which falls as snow on the
ice sheets.
EXIT TICKET DAY 2
 With atmospheric temperatures
rising slightly in the past decade
explain why Greenland and Western
Antarctica rates of melting have
risen so steeply in recent years?
DAY 3 WARM-UP ACTIVITY
 With a partner, suggest ideas for
Delawareans to combat future sea-level rise
in New Castle County and in Sussex County.
 10 Minutes
 When completed, let’s see what the entire
class has come up with.
NASA TRACKING ICE ON EARTH
CLICK PIC
THE EVIDENCE – 4. GLACIAL RETREAT
Jakobshavn Isbræ, which lies on the west coast of Greenland
EFFECTS OF GLACIAL RETREAT
 The retreat of glaciers since 1850 affects the availability
of fresh water for irrigation and domestic use,
mountain recreation, animals and plants that depend on
glacier-melt, and in the longer term, the level of the
oceans
 Since the 1980s, glacial retreat across the world has sped up
dramatically. Between the 1960s and 1990s, ice loss was
already relatively fast - with an around of 8 inches of ice
thickness lost for every square yard of glacier across
the world. Between 2001-2004, this rate more than
doubled
US GLACIER S
 By 2030 or even sooner -- perhaps even by the end of this
decade -- most or all of the Glacial National Park’s
(Montana)remaining 25 or so glaciers will be gone forever,
according to Dan Fagre, a U.S. Geological Survey ecologist
and glacial expert.
 About 5% of Alaska is covered by ice, in over 100,000
individual glaciers, many of which are unnamed.
 98% of these glaciers are shrinking, with those at lower
elevations experiencing the most rapid melting.
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ALASKAN GLACIER S
 Alaskan glaciers show some of the fastest loss in the
world per unit area.
 From the mid 1950s to the mid 1990s, 12.5 cubic miles
of ice was lost each year. This rate nearly doubled
from the mid-1990s to 2001, to 23 cubic miles per
year.
 This is nearly double the total loss from the much
larger Greenland ice sheet during that time.
ALASKAN GLACIER S
This pair of photos shows the same location on the east shore of Muir
Inlet in Alaska's Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve. In the 1880s-era
photo, the 328-feet-high glacier is shown with numerous icebergs
ALASKAN GLACIERS
By 2005, Muir Glacier had retreated by more than 30 miles. (USGS
Photo by Bruce Molnia
ALASKAN GLACIERS
THE EVIDENCE -5. DECLINING POLAR SEA ICE
Sea ice climatologies: Arctic and Antarctic sea ice concentration climatology from
1981-2010, at the approximate seasonal maximum and minimum levels based on passive
microwave satellite data. Image provided by National Snow and Ice Data Center,
University of Colorado, Boulder
ARCTIC SEA ICE FACTS
 presently approximated that the Arctic Sea is losing its
ice at the rate of 11.5% per decade when compared to
the 1979-2000 average ice cover.
 Greenhouse gases emitted through human activities
and the resulting increase in global mean
temperatures are the most likely underlying cause of
the sea ice decline, but the direct cause is a
complicated combination of factors resulting from the
warming, and from climate variability.
ARCTIC SEA ICE RECORD MELT
Anomaly
Anomaly Relative
Relative to 1981to 1981-2010
2010 Average
Average (million
(%)
sq. km.)
Year of
September
Average Extent
Extent (million
sq. km.)
2002
5.96
-0.56
-8.6
2003
6.15
-0.37
-5.7
2004
6.05
-0.47
-7.2
2005
5.57
-0.95
-14.6
2006
5.92
-0.6
-9.2
2007
4.3
-2.22
-34
2008
4.73
-1.79
-27.5
2009
5.39
-1.13
-17.3
2010
4.93
-1.59
-24.4
2011
4.63
-1.89
-29
2012
3.63
-2.89
-44.3
The Arctic sea ice September minimum extent reached a new record low in 2012 of 3.41 million square kilometers,
44 percent below the 1981-2010 average, and 16 percent below the previous record in 2007.
SEA ICE FACTS
 The melting and growth of sea ice, in contrast to land
ice, does not affect sea level, because the sea ice is
floating on the ocean already and is in equilibrium
with it.
 Sea ice is nonetheless still important in the context of
climate change. Sea ice, with its high reflectance and
the insulation it provides between the polar
atmospheres and oceans, is a key part of the climate
system.
SEA ICE FACTS
 Furthermore, sea ice responds to changes in the
atmosphere and oceans, and hence changes in it could
be a clue to broader climate change, such as global
warming.
 However, the record to date is not clear enough to
make any definitive conclusions about long-term
climate trends based on the sea-ice observations alone.
 Sea ice varies significantly from season to season and
from year to year, and the extent of its natural
variability is not yet fully known.
SEA ICE vs. LAND ICE
 What is the biggest difference between
sea ice and land ice in reference to sea
level rise?
 What property of ocean water
contributes to increased volume?
 If a glass of water with ice cubes in it
were filled to the top edge of the
container would the water overflow
when the ice melts?
DEMO ON SEA ICE vs. LAND ICE MELTING
CLICK PIC
GLACIERS AND SEA LEVEL RISE
Small glacier/ice cap contribution: The cumulative contribution to sea
level from small glaciers and ice caps (red) plotted with the annual global
surface air temperature anomaly (blue). Image courtesy Mark Dyurgerov,
Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder.
THE EVIDENCE – 6. SEA-LEVEL RISE
GLACIERS and SEA LEVEL RISE
 During the period 1960-1990, glaciers contributed 0.37
millimeters per year to sea level while during 1990-2004,
the contribution increased to 0.77 millimeters per year.
 However, the latest predictions suggest possibly an even
greater contribution by small glaciers and icecaps.
 With the current acceleration of glacier contribution to sea
level rise, the total contribution from small glaciers and ice
caps by the year 2100 is expected to be 240 millimeters,
which represents an average annual increase of more than
2.0 millimeters per year.
CAUSES OF SEA LEVEL RISE
 In the last century, sea levels rose roughly 7 inches
after not having changed noticeably in the previous
2,000 years.
 Sea levels rising are an effect of global warming and
put many states at risk of existing in the near future.
 As water gets warmer, it takes up more space. Each
drop of water only expands by a little bit, but when
you multiply this expansion over the entire depth of
the ocean, it all adds up and causes sea level to rise.
 Sea level is also rising because melting glaciers and
ice sheets are adding more water to the oceans.
SEA LEVEL RISE VIDEO
CLICK PIC
CAUSES OF SEA LEVEL RISE
EFFECTS of SEA LEVEL RISE
 If people keep adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere,
the average sea level around the world by the end of this
century (the year 2099) could be anywhere from 7 to 23
inches higher than it was in 1990. Sea level could rise
even more if the big ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica
melt faster.
 Rising sea level is a threat to people who live near the
ocean. Some low-lying areas will have more frequent
flooding, and very low-lying land could be submerged
completely.
 Rising sea level can also harm important coastal
ecosystems like mangrove forests and coral reefs.
FUTURE SEA LEVELS
CITIES AT GREATEST RISK OF SEA LEVEL RISE
SEA LEVEL RISE BY DECADE
NE US WITH A 20 FOOT SEA LEVEL RISE
A NEW WORLD WITH A 100 m(328 ft) SEA LEVEL RISE
SEA LEVEL RISE IN DELAWARE ACTIVITY
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Mapping Delaware’s Future Coastline
Some scientific models predict that if Greenland’s ice melted completely or slipped into the ocean, sea level would
rise approximately 20 feet. They also predict that if the West Antarctic ice shelf melted or slipped into the ocean, sea
level would rise another 20 feet, a total of 40 feet.
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Using the map of Delaware and the city/town elevation data complete the following exercises. When complete,
answer the questions below.
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Write the elevation of each town/city listed on the map. (print small)
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Assuming that the Greenland ice sheet does melt, draw the newly formed coastline of Delaware and color it with a
yellow pencil.
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Now assume that the West Antarctic ice shelf melts in addition to Greenland melting. Draw the new coastline of
Delaware in this scenario.
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Questions:
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What cities and towns would be underwater in scenario number 2?
What cities and towns would be underwater in scenario number 3?
What impact do you think either or both of these scenarios would have on Delaware’s eco systems? Explain.
What impact would either or both of these scenarios have on the economy of Delaware?
What impact would they have on Delaware resources? – (water supply, etc.)
DELAWARE ELEVATIONS
City/Town
Claymont
Edgemoor
Middletown
St.Georges
Wilmington
McKean H.S.
Greeneville (A.I. High)
Laurel
Seaford
Lewes
Milford
Millsboro
Rehobeth Beach
Newark
Newport
New Castle
Hockessin
Delaware City
Delcastle H.S.
Dover
Smyrna
Woodside
Silver Lake (Dover)
Leipsic
Angola
Bethany Beach
Dewey Beach
Fenwick Island
Georgetown
Port Penn
Elevation (ft. above sea-level)
100
60
66
30
100
280
258
29
29
18
21
26
16
125
35
19
254
10
75
36
36
61
16
15
20
10
7
4
52
11
DAY 4 WARM-UP ACTIVITY
 List 5 factors that scientist believe
will contribute to more severe
hurricanes, droughts, and floods.
 5 Minutes
THE EVIDENCE- 7. EXTREME
WEATHER EVENTS
EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING
 Analysis of computer simulations from 14 climate models
indicates wet regions of the world, such as the equatorial
Pacific Ocean and Asian monsoon regions, will see
increases in heavy precipitation because of warming
resulting from projected increases in carbon dioxide levels.
 Arid land areas outside the tropics and many regions with
moderate rainfall could become drier.
 "In response to carbon dioxide-induced warming, the
global water cycle undergoes a gigantic competition for
moisture resulting in a global pattern of increased heavy
rain, decreased moderate rain, and prolonged
droughts in certain regions.” (William Lau of NASA's
Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.)
RAINFALL PROJECTIONS
 The models project for every 1 degree Fahrenheit of
carbon dioxide-induced warming, heavy rainfall will
increase globally by 3.9 percent and light rain will
increase globally by 1 percent.
 Heavy rainfall is defined as months that receive an
average of more than about 0.35 of an inch per day.
 The models also projected for every degree
Fahrenheit of warming, the length of periods with
no rain will increase globally by 2.6 percent.
EXTREME WEATHER FACTS
 As the climate has warmed, some types of extreme
weather have become more frequent and severe in
recent decades, with increases in extreme heat, intense
precipitation, and drought.
 Heat waves are longer and hotter.
 Heavy rains and flooding are more frequent.
 In a wide swing between extremes, drought, too, is
more intense and more widespread
EXTREME WEATHER FACTS
 60 years ago in the continental United States, the
number of new record high temperatures recorded
around the country each year was roughly equal to the
number of new record lows.
 Now, the number of new record highs recorded each
year is twice the number of new record lows, a
signature of a warming climate, and a clear example of
its impact on extreme weather.1
EXTREME WEATHER DATA
 Over the past decade, 75 counties set all-time record
highs but only 15 countries set all-time record lows. In
2010, 19 countries set new all-time record high
temperatures, but not a single country set a new alltime record low (among those countries keeping these
statistics). 3
 A European heat wave in 2003 killed tens of
thousands.
RECORD HIGHS-LOWS IN US
EXTREME WEATHER CAUSES
Substantial changes in the
frequency and intensity of
extreme events can result from a
relatively small shift in the
average of a distribution of
temperatures, precipitation, or
other climate variables.
PROBABILITY OF EXTREME EVENTS
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS IN US
CLICK PIC
THE COST OF EXTREME WEATHER
 From 1980 to 2010 there were 99 weather disasters in
the U.S. in which damages exceeded $1 billion.
 Altogether those disasters cost $725 billion
 More frequent and more severe extreme weather
events are more likely to destabilize ecosystems and
cripple essential components of human livelihood,
such as food production, transportation
infrastructure, and water management.
 Death, disease, displacement, and economic hardship
may follow, as we have seen with recent hurricanes,
floods, heat waves, and droughts.
THE COST OF EXTREME WEATHER
 In the past two years,2011-2012, the U.S. has suffered an
onslaught of extreme weather, including storms,
floods, drought, heat, and fires.
 The 25 most damaging events took a combined 1,100
lives and caused $188 billion in damages.
2013 EXTREME WEATHER
 In early 2013, parts of the Southern Hemisphere witnessed
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record-high temperatures, with Australia experiencing
its hottest month in January 2013 since record-keeping
began more than a century ago.
Meanwhile, the central and northeastern United States
saw record snowfall and blizzard conditions.
Precipitation continued to be extreme throughout the
spring, with Spain seeing its wettest March on record
China experienced its wettest May since 1973.
New Zealand saw its worst drought in three decades
California experienced its driest year-to-date.
2012 EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
CAN YOU NAME ANY OTHER EXTREME EVENTS?
 Hurricane Katrina
 Hurricane Sandy
 Heat Wave in Texas
 Others?
EVIDENCE – 8. OCEAN ACIDIFICATION
OCEAN CO2 and ACIDITY (pH)
OCEAN ACIDIFICATION FACTS
 Scientists now know that about half of this
anthropogenic, or man-made, CO2 has been
absorbed over time by the oceans
 New research is finding that the introduction of
massive amounts of CO2 into the seas is altering water
chemistry and affecting the life cycles of many marine
organisms, particularly those at the lower end of the
food chain.
 When carbon dioxide dissolves in this ocean, carbonic
acid is formed. This leads to higher acidity, mainly
near the surface, which has been proven to inhibit
shell growth in marine animals and is suspected as
a cause of reproductive disorders in some fish.
THE CHANGING OCEAN pH
 On the pH scale, which runs from 0 to 14, solutions
with low numbers are considered acidic and those
with higher numbers are basic. Seven is neutral.
 Over the past 300 million years, ocean pH has been
slightly basic, averaging about 8.2.
 Today, it is around 8.1, a drop of 0.1 pH units,
representing a 25-percent increase in acidity over
the past two centuries.
FUTURE EFFECTS OF OCEAN ACIDIFICATION
 Projections show that by the end of this
century, continued emissions could reduce
ocean pH by another 0.5 units. Shellforming animals including corals, oysters,
shrimp, lobster, many planktonic organisms,
and even some fish species could be gravely
affected
OCEAN ACIDIFICATION VIDEO
CLICK PIC
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
 What do you think would happen if
shelled sea creatures, including
corals, no longer had the ability to
make their shells due to ocean
acidification?
CLOSURE
 Topics Covered:
 Evidence on:
 Global Warming
 Ocean Warming
 Shrinking Ice Sheets
 Glacial Retreat
 Declining Sea Ice
 Sea Level Rise
 Extreme Weather Events
 Ocean Acidification
CONCEPT MAP ON CLIMATE CHANGE EVIDENCE
 Work with a partner and design and construct a
concept map using all the identified areas of evidence
in this lesson and include any associated
nomenclature with each topic.
 When finished, exchange your concept map with
another group for peer feedback and constructive
criticism.
 When completed, submit your finished product for
grading
 50 points maximum
POST ASSESSMENT
 Pre assessment exam will be
administered to assure student
understanding. Any areas of
misconception or non
comprehension will be re-taught.
EXIT TICKET
 Describe in three paragraphs or more
how the evidence for climate change is
interrelated in a feedback loop that is
inter dependent of each variable
included in each area of evidence. In
other words, describe the cause and
effect between each topic of evidence.