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Meeting Info:
Date:
June 29, 2008
Time:
7:30-8:00 AM
Place:
WMBR Radio 88.1 FM
Attendees:
Name
Cornely, Pierre-Richard
Brutus Leaderson
Title
HSS Public Relations Representative
HSS
Science Ak Progres
Sponsored by
The Haitian Scientific Society (HSS)
BRUTUS Section 1
In the last 6 to10 years, there has been a lot of debates, discussion as well as scientific studies on
the subject of Global Warming. Today, we would like to revisit this subject so that we can
explain to the audience in some detail. By the end of this show we hope the audience will have a
better understanding of Global Warming, what it is, its assumed origin and causes, its long and
short term potential effects on the planet and humanity.
BRUTUS – Section 2
What is Global Warming?
Pierre-Richard Cornely – Section 2
Global warming is the increase in the average measured temperature of the Earth's near-surface
air and oceans since the mid-twentieth century, and its projected continuation.
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
The average global air temperature near the Earth's surface increased 0.74 ± 0.18 °C
(1.33 ± 0.32 °F) during the hundred years ending in 2005.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded the fiollowing:
"most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-twentieth
century is very likely due to the observed increase in man-made “greenhouse gas”
concentrations via an enhanced greenhouse effect.

Greenhouse gases (or gaz a effet de serre, ou piégeage du rayonnement infrarouge du
soleil entre les parois transparentes)

Natural phenomena such as solar variation combined with volcanoes also have a small
warming effect from pre-industrial times to 1950 and a small cooling effect from 1950
onward.
These basic conclusions have been endorsed by at least thirty scientific societies and academies
of science including all of the national academies of science of the major industrialized
countries.
While individual scientists have voiced disagreement with some findings of the IPCC, the
overwhelming majority of scientists working on climate change agree with the IPCC's main
conclusions.
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Temperature Anomaly (oC)
BRUTUS - Section 3
Where does Global Warming come from?
Pierre-Richard Cornely – Section 3
The Earth's climate changes in response to external forces, including variations in its orbit
around the Sun (orbital forces), changes in solar luminosity, volcanic eruptions, and atmospheric
greenhouse gas concentrations.
The detailed causes of the recent warming remain an active field of research, but the scientific
consensus is that the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases due to human activity caused
most of the warming observed since the start of the industrial era. This attribution is clearest for
the most recent 50 years, for which the most detailed scientific data are available.
Some other hypotheses departing from the general consensus view have been suggested to
explain most of the temperature increase. One such hypothesis proposes that warming may be
the result of variations in solar activity.
To provide more detail to the audience about the various greenhouse gases as well as their
contribution to Global Warming, let us look closer at the most abundant greenhouse gases on
Earth. In order of relative abundance, we have the following:
-
Water vapor, which causes about 36–70%
-
Carbon dioxide, which causes 9–26%
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-
Methane, which causes 4–9%
-
Ozone, which causes 3–7%
-
Nitrous Oxide & CFC 0.5 – 1%

Water vapor, also aqueous vapor, is the gas phase of water. Water vapor can be
produced from the evaporation of liquid water or from the sublimation of ice.
Under normal atmospheric conditions, water vapor is continuously generated by
evaporation and removed by condensation.

Carbon dioxide (chemical formula:CO2) is a chemical compound composed of
two oxygen atoms covalently bonded to a single carbon atom. It is a gas at
standard temperature and pressure and exists in Earth's atmosphere in this state.
Carbon dioxide is produced by all animals, plants, fungi and microorganisms
during respiration and is used by plants during photosynthesis. Carbon dioxide is
generated as a byproduct of the combustion of fossil fuels or vegetable matter,
among other chemical processes. Some carbon dioxide is output by volcanoes and
other geothermal processes such as hot springs.

Methane is a chemical compound with the molecular formula CH4. It is the
simplest alkane, and the principal component of natural gas.

Nitrous oxide is a chemical compound with the chemical formula N2O. At room
temperature, it is a colorless non-flammable gas, with a pleasant, slightly sweet
odor and taste. It is used in surgery and dentistry for its anesthetic and analgesic
effects

Ozone or trioxygen (O3) is a triatomic molecule, consisting of three oxygen
atoms. It is an allotrope of oxygen that is much less stable than the diatomic O2.
Ozone in the upper atmosphere filters potentially damaging ultraviolet light from
reaching the Earth's surface. It is present in low concentrations throughout the
Earth's atmosphere.

CFCs : are a group of chemical compounds, consisting of alkanes, such as
methane or ethane, with one or more halogens linked, such as chlorine or fluorine,
making them a type of organic halide. They are known under many chemical and
commercial names. They are used as flame retardants, fire extinguishants,
refrigerants, propellants and solvents they have or had wide use
These gases play the role of heat retention in the atmosphere. When sunlight reaches the surface
of the Earth, some of it is absorbed and warms the surface of the earth. The atmosphere absorbs
the radiation from the sun. This warmin effect of the erath’s atmosphere by the sun’s radiation
keepin the earth relatively warm enough to be habitable by humans is what is called the
“Greenhouse Effect”.
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BRUTUS – Section 4
What are the scientific predictions on the short and long terms effects of Global Warming on the
planet and humanity?
Pierre-Richard Cornely – Section 4
Climate model projections summarized by the IPCC indicate that average global surface
temperature will likely rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) during the twenty-first century.
This range of values results from the use of differing scenarios of future greenhouse gas
emissions as well as models predictions of greenhouse effects evolution.
Although it is difficult to connect specific weather events to global warming, an increase in
global temperatures may in turn cause broader changes in global climate, including:

Glacial retreat,

Arctic shrinkage,

Worldwide sea level rise of 110 to 770 millimeters (0.36 to 2.5 ft) between 1990 and
2100, with repercussions to agriculture, reductions in the ozone layer, increased intensity
(but less frequent) of hurricanes and extreme weather events, and the spread of diseases
such as malaria and dengue fever.

Changes in the amount and pattern of precipitation may result in flooding and drought.

Changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

Other effects may include changes in agricultural yields, and species extinctions.

Finally we may also have increasing deaths, displacements, and economic losses as well
as growing population densities in affected areas.

Additional anticipated effects include predictions on 18% to 35% of a sample of 1,103
animal and plant species that would be extinct by 2050, based on future climate
projections. However, few mechanistic studies have documented extinctions due to recent
climate change and one study suggests that projected rates of extinction are uncertain.
BRUTUS _Section 5
What about the politics and economics of Global warming?
Pierre-Richard Cornely – Section 5
There are some scientific uncertainties about the amount of warming expected in the future, and
how warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe.
Most national governments have signed and ratified an international protocol dedicated to
limiting the effects of Global Warming on eath. This protocol cxalled the Kyoto Protocol is
aimed at reducing long term greenhouse gas emissions, but there is an ongoing political and
public debate worldwide regarding what, if any, action should be taken to reduce or reverse
future warming or to adapt to its expected consequences.
Some economists have also tried to estimate the net economic costs of damages from climate
change across the globe. Such estimates have so far failed to reach conclusive findings.
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In a survey of 100 estimates, the values ran from US$-10 per tonne of carbon (tC) (US$-3 per
tonne of carbon dioxide) up to US$350/tC (US$95 per tonne of carbon dioxide), with a mean of
US$43 per tonne of carbon (US$12 per tonne of carbon dioxide).
One widely publicized report on potential economic impact is the Stern Review suggests that
extreme weather might reduce global gross domestic product by up to 1%, and that in a worstcase scenario global per capita consumption could fall 20%.
However, overall preliminary studies suggest that costs and benefits of mitigating global
warming are broadly comparable in magnitude. According to United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP), but economic sectors likely to face difficulties related to climate change
include banks, agriculture, transport and others. Developing countries dependent upon
agriculture could be particularly harmed by extensive Global Warming.
BRUTUS - Section 6
In the next show, we will look at the connection between Global warming and Renewable
Energy. In other words why do we hear that the use of Renewable Energy might greatly
contribute to a dimished warming of the earth.
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