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“Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian University Knowledge Horizons - Economics Volume 5, No. 3, pp. 69–75 P-ISSN: 2069-0932, E-ISSN: 2066-1061 © 2013 Pro Universitaria www.orizonturi.ucdc.ro Tackling Climate Change in the Black Sea Region: Case Studies Iuliana POP Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, E-mail: [email protected] Abstract The paper analyses the main aims of the EU policy of combating climate change in relation to the climate change effects and action to combat them in Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania. Having in view the requirements of the EU climateenergy package, the paper puts forward some recommendations for decision-makers meant to help adapt the Black Sea region countries to climate change through adaptation measures and align them to the EU standards in the field. 1. The Climate Change Challenge Changes occurring in the global ecosystem are much too fast. Since 1800 the Earth's surface temperature increased by 0.74° C, and if no action is taken, is expected to rise by 1.8°- 4°C until 2100. Global warming is becoming increasingly present and threatening. At the moment, we experience the first effects of global warming, including weather deterioration around the world. Many countries, states and companies are already beginning to act against climate change. However, the emissions of most individual countries are small relative to the global total, and very large reductions are required to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. Climate change mitigation raises the classic problem of the provision of a global public good. It shares key characteristics with other environmental challenges that require the international management of common resources to avoid free riding. 1.1. The Framework Action against Climate Change The current international climate change regime consists of two treaties: the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol. The section introduces the regime components as set up by these agreements and evolved over time through decisions by the Parties. In 1992, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted as the basis for a global response to the climate change problem. The Convention entered into force on 21 March 1994. With 192 Parties, the Convention enjoys near-universal Key words: EU, Black Sea region, climate change, case studies. JEL Codes: Q54, P48 membership. The ultimate objective of the Convention is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system. As a framework convention, the UNFCCC defines general rules, principles and commitments. Parties adopted the Kyoto Protocol to the Convention at COP 3 in 1997. The Protocol sets binding emissions limitation or reductions commitments for industrialized countries for the first commitment period (2008-2012). The Protocol also introduced flexibility mechanisms to facilitate compliance of the Parties with their obligations. After completion of technical and procedural details needed to ensure ratification by the states, the Protocol entered into force in 2005. The UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol and a range of other informational partnerships and dialog provide a framework that supports co-operation, and a foundation from which to build further collective action. A shared global perspective on the urgency of the problem and on the long-term goals for climate change policy, and an international approach based on multilateral frameworks and co-ordinated action, are essential to respond to the scale of the challenge. 1.2. The EU Action against Climate Change The EU has been at the forefront of international action to combat climate change since 1990, when the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) first assessment report warned of rising global temperatures caused by emissions of greenhouse gases. Knowledge Horizons - Economics Volume 5, No. 3, pp. 69–75, © 2013 Pro Universitaria states: 6 littoral states- Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Georgia and Turkey- and 4 states- Armenia, Azerbaijan, Moldova and Greece – whose history, proximity and close ties with the Black Sea area make them relevant actors in this area. For European Union (EU), the Black Sea Region represents a distinct area for the implementation of European Neighbourhood Policy (Pop and Manoleli 2007). The enlargement of the EU in 2007 brought the Union to the shores of the Black Sea and prompted it to recognise the coherence and significance of the region as it launched its Black Sea Synergy (BSS).The BSS aims to focus political attention at regional levels and to invigorate ongoing co-operation processes in the Black Sea Region (BSR). It represents an important attempt on the EU’s part to promote regional co-operation in an area covered by separate EU policy processes for European neighbourhood countries, candidate countries and EU members as well as the Russian Federation. The Black Sea Synergy covers six riparian countries as well as Armenia, Azerbaijan, Greece and the Republic of Moldova. It envisages that the EU will build on existing regional institutions to avoid duplication and focus on policy areas which are considered key in the EU’s relations with the region: energy, transport, environment, migration and security. Our Future, Our Choice Environmental Action Programme (2001-2010) proposes five major strategic directions: improved implementation of current legislation, integrating environmental concerns into other policies, environmental consideration in the use of planning, planning and management decisions. In 2006 the European Council adopted the Renewed EU Sustainable Development Strategy which confirmed that the EU has made a success in this area and has become a leader in combating climate change and promoting the economy based on carbon emissions reduction. In 2007 the European Commission made public the first report on the progress in sustainable development strategy. In December 2008 EU adopted its energy - climate change package, showing leadership in combating global climate change. As part of the future post-2012 global agreement, the EU committed itself to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2020 regardless of what other countries do. Meanwhile, the EU leaders have determined that the European economy needs transformation into one based on less carbon and more efficient. To achieve this efficient economy three steps are required: a 20% reduction in energy use by improving energy efficiency; an increase in renewable energy market by 20%; and a 10% of biofuel production in each Member State. A European Commission report showed that the investment required to achieve a carbon-free economy would cost nearly 0.5% global GDP between 2013 and 2030. Reductions in emissions that would keep global warming below 2˚ C would reduce GDP by 0.12% annually by 2050 (European Commission EU action against climate change, 2008). In January 2010, the Council of the European Union made a statement that “as a contribution to a global and comprehensive agreement, the EU maintains its conditional offer of a 30% reduction, if other developed countries commit to comparable emissions reductions and developing countries contribute adequately according to their responsibilities and capabilities” (Council of the European Union 2010). 2.2. The Climate Change Vulnerability of the Black Sea Region The Black Sea Region is rich in wildlife, landscapes and biodiversity and is a significant provider of environmental services and natural resources. But, it is also vulnerable, and current developments, especially plans concerning oil and gas extraction and transport as well as the development of transport infrastructure across the region, are a major cause for concern. The region is vulnerable to climate change, which could add to the stress natural systems are already under, increase the probability of extreme accidents, endanger livelihoods and even undermine security and stability. Having emerged from the difficult years of transition, the Black Sea Region is now at an environmental crossroads. It may seek to draw inspiration from best environmental practice and move towards sustainable models of development; but it will also have to contend with a legacy of environmental damage, polluting industries, unsustainable and resource intensive development and poor governance compounded by today’s growing interest in resource extraction and large-scale infrastructure projects. The effects of climate change on the region include sea level rise, increased water stress and drought. The future frequency and strength of storms is difficult to anticipate but the impact of storms and floods is likely to 2. The Black Sea Region and the Climate Change Climate change, or the effects of climate change (such as drought, sea level rise, floods etc.), will probably affect social and political affairs, including security interactions. However, the natural effects of climate change cannot introduce wholly new social conditions but will rather play into existing conditions. 2.1. The Black Sea Region According to the European Commission, the Black Sea Region represents a distinct area, which comprises 10 70 Knowledge Horizons - Economics Volume 5, No. 3, pp. 69–75, © 2013 Pro Universitaria increase in any case as the region’s environment becomes more vulnerable. A drop in food production is also to be anticipated, leading to a rise in food prices and food shortages. Overall, climate change will mostly affect coastal areas, which tend to be both more vulnerable and populated, and hence are home to much of the economy of Black Sea countries. It will also strongly affect the agricultural sector, which remains economically significant in the region at between 25 and 40% of GNP, causing food production to decline. Preparing for the meeting in Copenhagen in 2009, the Russian government was aiming for a 25% cut of the national greenhouse gas emissions below the 1990 level by 2020. However, the offer was scaled back to 10-15% as the Copenhagen Accord has failed to define legally binding emissions reduction targets. 3.1.2. Ukraine It is likely that for Ukraine, inland areas, away from the moderating influence of the Black Sea, will see the greatest increases in temperature during the 21st century. Ukraine signed the UNFCCC and ratified the Kyoto Protocol which provides a basis for the reduction of greenhouse gas emission, efficient use of energy, and the implementation of measures to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Combating climate change is not considered to be a top priority by the Ukrainian society in general and by the government in particular. Experts also pointed out other factors that obstruct climate change prevention, including imperfect laws (regarding usage of the Kyoto Protocol mechanisms in particular), non-fulfilment of laws and other regulatory legal acts concerning environmental protection, lack of strategic programs in this area, and the modest effectiveness of power facilities in Ukraine. UNDP’s environmental programme is addressing the issue of climate change through national and subregional activities, advocating the limitation of greenhouse gas emission through energy efficiency initiatives in district heating systems and promotion of renewable energy. Key international waters including the Dnipro and Danube Rivers and the Black Sea are focus of sub-regional interventions, in cooperation with the Global Environment Facility. A Strategic Action Plan for the Dnipro was developed, and regional projects on pollution reduction are being implemented for the Black Sea and the Danube. The partners and agencies in the Danube/Black Sea initiative are looking at a new strategic programme including capital investments, enforcement of environmental legislation and strengthening of public participation, which will be supported by UNDP. Additionally, UNDP is supporting interventions in integrated land and water management, and forest and mountain ecosystems. Harmonization of Ukrainian practices with EU environmental legislation standards, and guidelines are essential in view of the objective of integration. This is being achieved through application of international experiences in pollution control, promotion of bottom-up initiatives in communities and regions, and development of environmentally sound practices, integrated ecosystems management, waste management, and ecotourism. 3. Combating Climate Change in the Black Sea Region 3.1. Combating Climate Change in Russia, Ukraine and Moldova 3.1.1. Russia In October 2004, the Russian Parliament (Duma) adopted a bill on the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN FCCC) and Russia's President signed it into law in November 2004. The Kyoto Protocol contributes to transition of Russia to sustainable development through its efforts to reduce man-made GHG emissions as well as other pollutants, raise energy efficiency of the economy, and adapt to climate change. The level of the Black Sea has been rising since the 1920s, and the rate of rise has increased significantly since the 1980s (currently about 2 centimetres per year). This will affect Russia’s main warm water port complex at Novorossiysk, where dry cargoes, crude oil, and refined petroleum products are all exported. It will also affect Russia’s main Black Sea military base, which is at Sevastopol, in neighbouring Ukraine. Climate change has potential long-term effects on the living environment, especially in countries with large territories and long coastal line, such as Russia stretching from sun-scorched pre-Caspian deserts to Arctic tundra and spanning 11 time zones (GMT+2 to GMT+12). The impact of climate change, including the adverse accompanying socio-economic consequences of natural hazards, plays a conspicuous role in the spatial and economic development of this country. In conclusion, it is stressed that climate change for Russia is an essential additional stress further aggravating environmental, economic and social issues, although Russia's overall energy demands may markedly dwindle and could benefit national economy. A response to climate change challenges requires designing and adopting special mitigation and adaptation policies, an early warning system for climate change relating natural disasters and abrupt ecosystem changes. 71 Knowledge Horizons - Economics Volume 5, No. 3, pp. 69–75, © 2013 Pro Universitaria «Energy Strategy of Ukraine until 2030» is directed on increasing energy production (primarily nuclear energy) in order to satisfy the growing demand of the economy. Nevertheless, it is more appropriate for Ukraine to search for opportunities to reduce its need for energy and natural resources, taking into account the climate change problem, as well as the economic benefits. This should become a basis for the national energy strategy according to the specialists' opinion. One of important aspects should be a cancellation of benefits and subsidies for energy producers like the coal industry, nuclear power production, etc. One of the experts supposes that market pricing of energy resources will stimulate their effective use together with the development of renewable sources of energy. In addition, experts emphasize that it is not profitable to finance construction of new power stations in Ukraine today providing these stations use fossil fuels, especially nuclear ones. The experts think that it is more appropriate to use renewable sources of energy that will, firstly, reduce the country's dependence on energy imports, and secondly, can become an additional source of income for local budgets. 3.2. Combating Climate Change in Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan Climate change has already started to have a significant impact on nature and people in the Southern Caucasus region – effects that will become even more severe in the future. This will create an extra burden on the development of societies in all the three countries of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, which still struggle to embark on a more sustainable path, including eradicating widespread poverty. Climate change also poses an additional risk for the political stability of the region. With regard to climate change, the Southern Caucasus region already shows climate induced changes with increasing temperatures, shrinking glaciers, sea level rise, reduction and redistribution of river flows, decreasing snowfall and an upward shift of the snowline. More extreme weather events have also characterized the last ten years with flooding, landslides, forest fires and coastal erosion with significant economic losses and human casualties as a result. The three Southern Caucasus countries show a rather different energy profile, with Azerbaijan consuming mainly its oil and gas resources, Georgia relying on hydropower production, and Armenia with a more diversified supply system of hydro and nuclear power. All three countries have embarked on the development of renewable energy resources supported by many international agencies, but only a few projects have actually started. Of the three countries, Armenia plans the largest investments in geo-thermal and wind power generation and also to reduce overall GHG emissions. In addition to investments improving the energy efficiency and the introduction of renewable energy sources, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol provides a financial tool for mitigation measures in the Southern Caucasus region, although implementation of the first CDM projects in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia has only just begun. Deforestation is a problem mainly in Armenia and Azerbaijan. All three countries still suffer from the lack of access to safe drinking water and water shortage is a particular problem in Azerbaijan and Armenia, where Azerbaijan has very high water consumption per capita. Climate-related impacts on health have also emerged, including malaria. Using current trends and climate forecasts, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, have already made some first efforts to outline adaptation strategies. In Armenia, for instance, a wide range of adaptation measures have been suggested to overcome the detrimental impacts of climate change on agriculture, from changing crops and adapting farming management practices to new and more effective irrigation schemes. It is interesting to 3.1.3. Moldova Moldova joined UNFCCC on 16 March 1995 an on 13 February 2003 it ratified the Kyoto Protocol as well. Although it doesn’t have obligations for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, by signing these documents, as a developing country, Moldova committed itself to promote the principles of sustainable development and to contribute to fulfilling the UNFCC objectives for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Moldova’s national framework document regarding its environmental policy adopted in 2001 emphasizes elements such as: the harmonization with the EU strategies and programmes; drafting a framework document regarding the ratification and implementation mechanisms of international conventions and protocols; signing bilateral cooperation protocols with Romania, Ukraine, Belarus and the Russian Federation; signing and ratifying regional agreements such as the convention on cooperation for the preservation and sustainability of the Danube river. The 2004 report on the environmental status of Moldova identifies a set of basic principles on international cooperation on environmental preservation and sustainable development, including the strengthening of institutional capacity by participating in international and bilateral agreements; making compatible the national environmental legislation with international conventions and EU legislation; and mobilizing the financial and technical assistance for implementing the environmental national policy. 72 Knowledge Horizons - Economics Volume 5, No. 3, pp. 69–75, © 2013 Pro Universitaria note that climate change adaptation can be a driver for updating and improving natural resource use. Facing serious challenges of adaptation to climate change, the Azerbaijan government already in the first report to the UNFCCC in 2000 identified priority adaptation measures and tried to estimate costs. The Kyoto Protocol was subsequently ratified by Georgia in June 1999, by Azerbaijan in September 2000, and by Armenia in May 2003. However, as „countries in transition‟, these countries are not obliged to meet a specific emission reduction target by 2012. government moves to adopt market-oriented policies since the 1980s. Mitigation Potential in Turkey includes: privatizing energy resource production; increasing the share of natural gas in consumption; transferring electricity production and distribution to the private sector to make utility services more efficient; encourage power savings by matching costs to prices and preventing theft; developing new and renewable energy sources and ensuring their greater role in the market; converting railway management to commercial orientation to ensure efficient, market-oriented services; investing in natural gas pipelines and storage facilities; increasing energy efficiency and ensuring energy saving. By contrast, significant barriers to mitigation opportunities in Turkey include: lack of information, lack of capacity, market distortion, lack of technology and investment. In light of these barriers, efforts to promote further emissions mitigation will require new policies leveraging drivers for other developing country objectives. Experts suggest a variety of strategies to encourage emissions mitigation including realizing synergies between climate mitigation and local environmental objectives, such as improving air quality and encouraging forest and land conservation. 3.3. Combating Climate Change in Turkey Turkey is at the crossroads of Asia, Europe, and Africa, occupying a strategic position on the energy transit route linking the oil- and gas-rich Caspian Sea to demand centres in Europe and the Mediterranean. Turkey’s high rate of energy-related carbon emissions growth is expected to accelerate, with emissions climbing from 57 million tons in 2000 to almost 210 million tons in 2020. Carbon intensity in Turkey is higher than the western developed nation average. Energy-intensive, inefficient industries remain under government control with soft budget constraints, contributing to undisciplined energy use. Planned industrial privatizations may close the oldest and most inefficient operations and modernize surviving ones. Elimination of energy price subsidies could stimulate energy conservation, reducing energy and emissions growth below current projections. Turkey stands at a cultural crossroads between Asia, Europe, and Africa, and is a transit route for energy exports from Caspian Sea oil and gas fields. Ongoing emissions mitigation in Turkey is driven by economic restructuring, European integration, price reform, fuel switching, and energy efficiency measures. Restructuring and reform have resulted from government moves to adopt marketoriented policies since the 1980s. Turkey established a Customs Union with the EU in 1996, thus achieving a much higher level of integration both in commercial and legislative terms, and ratified the Energy Charter Treaty in 2001. The treaty requires each party to minimize energy-related environmental impacts in an economic manner. The new Natural Gas Market Law, also adopted in 2001, establishes a competitive gas market and harmonizes Turkish legislation with European law. The Turkish Council of Ministers has adopted several measures to stabilize fuel prices. An automatic pricing formula was abolished and gasoline taxes were made consistent with European countries. Ongoing emissions mitigation in Turkey is driven by economic restructuring, European integration, price reform, fuel switching, and energy efficiency measures. Restructuring and reform have resulted from 3.4. Romania and Bulgaria In the EU, the energy issue is managed at a Member State level, without a common policy. Bulgaria has harmonized all the aspects of the environmental legislation with the EU legislation. Based on the legal acts the Government has approved a set of secondary laws, regulations and methodologies of the Ministry of Environment and Water (MOEW) and its subsidiaries, which are already operational. An InterMinisterial Committee on Climate Change (IMCCC) was set up under the Governmental decision to coordinate the implementation of the First Action Plan on Climate Change in July 2000. In addition, a Steering Committee for Joint Implementation projects under the Kyoto Protocol, was set up as an evaluation body, too. The harmonization of the legislation is ongoing and all the already approved and the future EU legislative initiatives in the field of climate change will find place within the Bulgarian legislation. The Bulgaria obligations in the climate change policy follow from multilateral and bilateral international agreements, from the EU legislation in the field of climate change as well as from the national legislation In order to translate the acquis communitaire into the national law, Romania has also introduced and implemented a series of policies and measures that have directly or indirectly reduced emissions of greenhouse gases. The legislative framework for the 73 Knowledge Horizons - Economics Volume 5, No. 3, pp. 69–75, © 2013 Pro Universitaria energy and environment sector has been changed and adapted to the relevant Community legislation by the relevant ministries, authorities and agencies, in view of Romania's admission to the EU and then as a Member State, but also as a consequence of its transition to a functioning market economy. The main framework of the environmental policy in the country is the National Environmental Strategy, which serves as a base for the activities in the environmental policy areas, including climate change. Romania's Energy Strategy for 2007-2020 has set as the general objective of the strategy the meeting of energy needs both for the present as well as for medium and long term, at the lowest possible price, suitable for a modern market economy and a civilized standard of life, in terms of quality, food safety, while respecting the principles of sustainable development. The EU political objectives of the three targets of 20% in terms of the shares of renewable energy resources, the reduction of the emissions of greenhouse gases, and the efficiency of the energy consumption are difficult challenges for the rich states as well, but the more so for countries like Romania. transform the BSR into a model of clean energy by adopting low pollutant practices through resource efficient and climate resilient economies, in mitigating climate change; developing regional policy approaches on mitigating climate change with respect to the capabilities of the countries concerned and at the same time ensuring energy security and a sustainable development process providing for growth, employment and welfare; striving to develop common approaches on climate change demonstrating leadership and strong commitment to action in the international arena, aiming at contributing to international and regional agreements through seeking the possibility of developing common policy positions, as well as project- based initiatives; continuing the work on the adoption of regional regulations and development programmes, so as to set the framework for attracting public and private investment in all sectors that can contribute to this vision; benefiting from the existing network of civil society organizations dealing with climate change and environmental issues in the Black Sea area; strengthening collaboration on addressing common challenges by elaborating shared plans and initiatives concerning the implementation of models of environmental risks assessment, especially early warning prediction models, with the aim of taking joint measures and increasing safety precautions against disasters in the wider Black Sea area; further increasing public awareness on ecological issues for the long-term safety of the Black Sea environment; commitment to contribute to the success of the UNFCCC. 4. Conclusions Black Sea Region (BSR) countries should be helped to adapt to climate change notably through cost-effective adaptation measures such as water conservation, public planning, awareness raising, developing partnerships and improving disaster or crisis management. Specific technical guidance, through exchanges of experience, best practice, co-operation and projects on the ground should be provided. The EU and its member states must carry out an analysis of the impacts of climate change on the BSR’s security situation, including livelihood security. They must furthermore support concrete adaptation and mitigation measures while ensuring that national policies are supportive of adaptation and mitigation. The EU should help BSR countries to exploit their renewable energy potential through technical and economic support, particularly with regards to decisionmaking, data collection and cost-benefit analysis of policy options. BSR countries will also need help in devising policies that will facilitate the entry of renewable energy on the energy market, including the gradual removal of energy subsidies. The EU should adopt an EU energy policy for the region. It should ensure that it is in line with the EU’s own sustainable energy goals, including with the strategy set out in the Energy Package. The EU should reduce investments in fossil fuel projects to invest more in renewable alternatives. Further steps in combating climate in the BSR include: endorsing the vision to References [1] Commission on The Black Sea (2010). A 2020 Vision for the Black Sea Region, Bertelsmann Stiftung. [2] Çaðlar G. (2007). Climate Change & Turkey, Impacts, Sectoral Analyses, Socio-Economic Dimensions, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Turkey Office, Ankara. [3] Decision no. 406/2009/CE of the Parliament and Council, http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do? uri=OJ:L:2009:140:0136:0148:RO:PDF. [4] Directive 2009/31/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April 2009, http://eur-lex.europa. eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:140:0114:0135: EN:PDF [5] Energy Institute JSC, 2006, Fourth National Communication on Climate Change, Ministry of Environment and Water, Sofia [6] European Commission (2008).EU action against climate change. The EU Emission Trading System, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg, http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/pdf/brochures/ets_en. pdf. [7] Leca, A., (coord.) (2010). The Impact of Implementation of the Energy-Climate Change Package on the Romanian Economy, European Institute of Romania, Bucharest. 74 Knowledge Horizons - Economics Volume 5, No. 3, pp. 69–75, © 2013 Pro Universitaria [10] Pop, A., Manoleli, D., (2008). Towards a European Strategy in the Black Sea Area. The Territorial Cooperation, European Institute of Romania, Bucharest. [11] Semra, C. M., (ed), (2009). Post-2012 Climate Change, Ministry of Environment and Forestry, Ankara. [12] Stern Review (2007). The Economics of Climate Change, HM Treasury, London. [8] Magnus, S., Reinvang, R., Andersone-Lilley, Ž., (2008). Climate Change in Southern Caucasus: Impacts on nature, people and society, WWF Norway. [9] Oprunenco, A., Prohnitchi V., (eds) (2009). Schimbările Climatice în Republica Moldova, “Nova Imprim”, Chişinău. 75