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“Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian University
Knowledge Horizons - Economics
Volume 5, No. 3, pp. 69–75
P-ISSN: 2069-0932, E-ISSN: 2066-1061
© 2013 Pro Universitaria
www.orizonturi.ucdc.ro
Tackling Climate Change in the Black Sea Region: Case Studies
Iuliana POP
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, E-mail: [email protected]
Abstract
The paper analyses the main aims of the EU policy of combating climate change in relation to the
climate change effects and action to combat them in Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, Georgia,
Azerbaijan, Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania. Having in view the requirements of the EU climateenergy package, the paper puts forward some recommendations for decision-makers meant to help
adapt the Black Sea region countries to climate change through adaptation measures and align them
to the EU standards in the field.
1. The Climate Change Challenge
Changes occurring in the global ecosystem are much
too fast. Since 1800 the Earth's surface temperature
increased by 0.74° C, and if no action is taken, is
expected to rise by 1.8°- 4°C until 2100. Global
warming is becoming increasingly present and
threatening. At the moment, we experience the first
effects of global warming, including weather
deterioration around the world.
Many countries, states and companies are already
beginning to act against climate change. However, the
emissions of most individual countries are small relative
to the global total, and very large reductions are
required to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in
the atmosphere. Climate change mitigation raises the
classic problem of the provision of a global public good.
It shares key characteristics with other environmental
challenges that require the international management of
common resources to avoid free riding.
1.1. The Framework Action against Climate Change
The current international climate change regime
consists of two treaties: the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the
Kyoto Protocol. The section introduces the regime
components as set up by these agreements and
evolved over time through decisions by the Parties. In
1992, the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted as the basis
for a global response to the climate change problem.
The Convention entered into force on 21 March 1994.
With 192 Parties, the Convention enjoys near-universal
Key words:
EU, Black Sea region,
climate change, case
studies.
JEL Codes:
Q54, P48
membership. The ultimate objective of the Convention
is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that will prevent dangerous
human interference with the climate system. As a
framework convention, the UNFCCC defines general
rules, principles and commitments. Parties adopted the
Kyoto Protocol to the Convention at COP 3 in 1997.
The Protocol sets binding emissions limitation or
reductions commitments for industrialized countries for
the first commitment period (2008-2012). The Protocol
also introduced flexibility mechanisms to facilitate
compliance of the Parties with their obligations. After
completion of technical and procedural details needed
to ensure ratification by the states, the Protocol entered
into force in 2005.
The UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol and a range of other
informational partnerships and dialog provide a
framework that supports co-operation, and a foundation
from which to build further collective action. A shared
global perspective on the urgency of the problem and
on the long-term goals for climate change policy, and
an international approach based on multilateral
frameworks and co-ordinated action, are essential to
respond to the scale of the challenge.
1.2. The EU Action against Climate Change
The EU has been at the forefront of international action
to combat climate change since 1990, when the UN
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC)
first assessment report warned of rising global
temperatures caused by emissions of greenhouse
gases.
Knowledge Horizons - Economics
Volume 5, No. 3, pp. 69–75, © 2013 Pro Universitaria
states: 6 littoral states- Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine,
Russia, Georgia and Turkey- and 4 states- Armenia,
Azerbaijan, Moldova and Greece – whose history,
proximity and close ties with the Black Sea area make
them relevant actors in this area. For European Union
(EU), the Black Sea Region represents a distinct area
for the implementation of European Neighbourhood
Policy (Pop and Manoleli 2007).
The enlargement of the EU in 2007 brought the Union
to the shores of the Black Sea and prompted it to
recognise the coherence and significance of the region
as it launched its Black Sea Synergy (BSS).The BSS
aims to focus political attention at regional levels and to
invigorate ongoing co-operation processes in the Black
Sea Region (BSR). It represents an important attempt
on the EU’s part to promote regional co-operation in an
area covered by separate EU policy processes for
European neighbourhood countries, candidate
countries and EU members as well as the Russian
Federation.
The Black Sea Synergy covers six riparian countries as
well as Armenia, Azerbaijan, Greece and the Republic
of Moldova. It envisages that the EU will build on
existing regional institutions to avoid duplication and
focus on policy areas which are considered key in the
EU’s relations with the region: energy, transport,
environment, migration and security.
Our Future, Our Choice Environmental Action
Programme (2001-2010) proposes five major strategic
directions: improved implementation of current
legislation, integrating environmental concerns into
other policies, environmental consideration in the use of
planning, planning and management decisions.
In 2006 the European Council adopted the Renewed
EU Sustainable Development Strategy
which
confirmed that the EU has made a success in this area
and has become a leader in combating climate change
and promoting the economy based on carbon
emissions reduction. In 2007 the European
Commission made public the first report on the
progress in sustainable development strategy.
In December 2008 EU adopted its energy - climate
change package, showing leadership in combating
global climate change. As part of the future post-2012
global agreement, the EU committed itself to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2020 regardless
of what other countries do. Meanwhile, the EU leaders
have determined that the European economy needs
transformation into one based on less carbon and more
efficient. To achieve this efficient economy three steps
are required: a 20% reduction in energy use by
improving energy efficiency; an increase in renewable
energy market by 20%; and a 10% of biofuel production
in each Member State.
A European Commission report showed that the
investment required to achieve a carbon-free economy
would cost nearly 0.5% global GDP between 2013 and
2030. Reductions in emissions that would keep global
warming below 2˚ C would reduce GDP by 0.12%
annually by 2050 (European Commission EU action
against climate change, 2008).
In January 2010, the Council of the European Union
made a statement that “as a contribution to a global and
comprehensive agreement, the EU maintains its
conditional offer of a 30% reduction, if other developed
countries commit to comparable emissions reductions
and developing countries contribute adequately
according to their responsibilities and capabilities”
(Council of the European Union 2010).
2.2. The Climate Change Vulnerability of the Black
Sea Region
The Black Sea Region is rich in wildlife, landscapes and
biodiversity and is a significant provider of
environmental services and natural resources. But, it is
also vulnerable, and current developments, especially
plans concerning oil and gas extraction and transport
as well as the development of transport infrastructure
across the region, are a major cause for concern.
The region is vulnerable to climate change, which could
add to the stress natural systems are already under,
increase the probability of extreme accidents, endanger
livelihoods and even undermine security and stability.
Having emerged from the difficult years of transition,
the Black Sea Region is now at an environmental
crossroads. It may seek to draw inspiration from best
environmental practice and move towards sustainable
models of development; but it will also have to contend
with a legacy of environmental damage, polluting
industries, unsustainable and resource intensive
development and poor governance compounded by
today’s growing interest in resource extraction and
large-scale infrastructure projects.
The effects of climate change on the region include sea
level rise, increased water stress and drought. The
future frequency and strength of storms is difficult to
anticipate but the impact of storms and floods is likely to
2. The Black Sea Region and the Climate
Change
Climate change, or the effects of climate change (such
as drought, sea level rise, floods etc.), will probably
affect social and political affairs, including security
interactions. However, the natural effects of climate
change cannot introduce wholly new social conditions
but will rather play into existing conditions.
2.1. The Black Sea Region
According to the European Commission, the Black Sea
Region represents a distinct area, which comprises 10
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increase in any case as the region’s environment
becomes more vulnerable. A drop in food production is
also to be anticipated, leading to a rise in food prices
and food shortages.
Overall, climate change will mostly affect coastal areas,
which tend to be both more vulnerable and populated,
and hence are home to much of the economy of Black
Sea countries. It will also strongly affect the agricultural
sector, which remains economically significant in the
region at between 25 and 40% of GNP, causing food
production to decline.
Preparing for the meeting in Copenhagen in 2009, the
Russian government was aiming for a 25% cut of the
national greenhouse gas emissions below the 1990
level by 2020. However, the offer was scaled back to
10-15% as the Copenhagen Accord has failed to define
legally binding emissions reduction targets.
3.1.2. Ukraine
It is likely that for Ukraine, inland areas, away from the
moderating influence of the Black Sea, will see the
greatest increases in temperature during the 21st
century.
Ukraine signed the UNFCCC and ratified the Kyoto
Protocol which provides a basis for the reduction of
greenhouse gas emission, efficient use of energy, and
the implementation of measures to reduce
anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.
Combating climate change is not considered to be a top
priority by the Ukrainian society in general and by the
government in particular. Experts also pointed out other
factors that obstruct climate change prevention,
including imperfect laws (regarding usage of the Kyoto
Protocol mechanisms in particular), non-fulfilment of
laws and other regulatory legal acts concerning
environmental protection, lack of strategic programs in
this area, and the modest effectiveness of power
facilities in Ukraine.
UNDP’s environmental programme is addressing the
issue of climate change through national and
subregional activities, advocating the limitation of
greenhouse gas emission through energy efficiency
initiatives in district heating systems and promotion of
renewable energy. Key international waters including
the Dnipro and Danube Rivers and the Black Sea are
focus of sub-regional interventions, in cooperation with
the Global Environment Facility. A Strategic Action Plan
for the Dnipro was developed, and regional projects on
pollution reduction are being implemented for the Black
Sea and the Danube. The partners and agencies in the
Danube/Black Sea initiative are looking at a new
strategic programme including capital investments,
enforcement of environmental legislation and
strengthening of public participation, which will be
supported by UNDP. Additionally, UNDP is supporting
interventions in integrated land and water management,
and forest and mountain ecosystems.
Harmonization of Ukrainian practices with EU
environmental legislation standards, and guidelines are
essential in view of the objective of integration. This is
being achieved through application of international
experiences in pollution control, promotion of bottom-up
initiatives in communities and regions, and
development of environmentally sound practices,
integrated
ecosystems
management,
waste
management, and ecotourism.
3. Combating Climate Change in the Black Sea
Region
3.1. Combating Climate Change in Russia, Ukraine
and Moldova
3.1.1. Russia
In October 2004, the Russian Parliament (Duma)
adopted a bill on the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol to
the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN
FCCC) and Russia's President signed it into law in
November 2004.
The Kyoto Protocol contributes to transition of Russia to
sustainable development through its efforts to reduce
man-made GHG emissions as well as other pollutants,
raise energy efficiency of the economy, and adapt to
climate change. The level of the Black Sea has been
rising since the 1920s, and the rate of rise has
increased significantly since the 1980s (currently about
2 centimetres per year). This will affect Russia’s main
warm water port complex at Novorossiysk, where dry
cargoes, crude oil, and refined petroleum products are
all exported. It will also affect Russia’s main Black Sea
military base, which is at Sevastopol, in neighbouring
Ukraine.
Climate change has potential long-term effects on the
living environment, especially in countries with large
territories and long coastal line, such as Russia
stretching from sun-scorched pre-Caspian deserts to
Arctic tundra and spanning 11 time zones (GMT+2 to
GMT+12). The impact of climate change, including the
adverse accompanying socio-economic consequences
of natural hazards, plays a conspicuous role in the
spatial and economic development of this country.
In conclusion, it is stressed that climate change for
Russia is an essential additional stress further
aggravating environmental, economic and social
issues, although Russia's overall energy demands may
markedly dwindle and could benefit national economy.
A response to climate change challenges requires
designing and adopting special mitigation and
adaptation policies, an early warning system for climate
change relating natural disasters and abrupt ecosystem
changes.
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«Energy Strategy of Ukraine until 2030» is directed on
increasing energy production (primarily nuclear energy)
in order to satisfy the growing demand of the economy.
Nevertheless, it is more appropriate for Ukraine to
search for opportunities to reduce its need for energy
and natural resources, taking into account the climate
change problem, as well as the economic benefits. This
should become a basis for the national energy strategy
according to the specialists' opinion.
One of important aspects should be a cancellation of
benefits and subsidies for energy producers like the
coal industry, nuclear power production, etc. One of the
experts supposes that market pricing of energy
resources will stimulate their effective use together with
the development of renewable sources of energy. In
addition, experts emphasize that it is not profitable to
finance construction of new power stations in Ukraine
today providing these stations use fossil fuels,
especially nuclear ones. The experts think that it is
more appropriate to use renewable sources of energy
that will, firstly, reduce the country's dependence on
energy imports, and secondly, can become an
additional source of income for local budgets.
3.2. Combating Climate Change in Armenia,
Georgia and Azerbaijan
Climate change has already started to have a
significant impact on nature and people in the Southern
Caucasus region – effects that will become even more
severe in the future. This will create an extra burden on
the development of societies in all the three countries of
Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, which still struggle to
embark on a more sustainable path, including
eradicating widespread poverty. Climate change also
poses an additional risk for the political stability of the
region.
With regard to climate change, the Southern Caucasus
region already shows climate induced changes with
increasing temperatures, shrinking glaciers, sea level
rise, reduction and redistribution of river flows,
decreasing snowfall and an upward shift of the
snowline. More extreme weather events have also
characterized the last ten years with flooding,
landslides, forest fires and coastal erosion with
significant economic losses and human casualties as a
result.
The three Southern Caucasus countries show a rather
different energy profile, with Azerbaijan consuming
mainly its oil and gas resources, Georgia relying on
hydropower production, and Armenia with a more
diversified supply system of hydro and nuclear power.
All three countries have embarked on the development
of renewable energy resources supported by many
international agencies, but only a few projects have
actually started. Of the three countries, Armenia plans
the largest investments in geo-thermal and wind power
generation and also to reduce overall GHG emissions.
In addition to investments improving the energy
efficiency and the introduction of renewable energy
sources, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
under the Kyoto Protocol provides a financial tool for
mitigation measures in the Southern Caucasus region,
although implementation of the first CDM projects in
Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia has only just begun.
Deforestation is a problem mainly in Armenia and
Azerbaijan. All three countries still suffer from the lack
of access to safe drinking water and water shortage is a
particular problem in Azerbaijan and Armenia, where
Azerbaijan has very high water consumption per capita.
Climate-related impacts on health have also emerged,
including malaria.
Using current trends and climate forecasts, Georgia,
Armenia and Azerbaijan, have already made some first
efforts to outline adaptation strategies. In Armenia, for
instance, a wide range of adaptation measures have
been suggested to overcome the detrimental impacts of
climate change on agriculture, from changing crops and
adapting farming management practices to new and
more effective irrigation schemes. It is interesting to
3.1.3. Moldova
Moldova joined UNFCCC on 16 March 1995 an on 13
February 2003 it ratified the Kyoto Protocol as well.
Although it doesn’t have obligations for the reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions, by signing these
documents, as a developing country, Moldova
committed itself to promote the principles of sustainable
development and to contribute to fulfilling the UNFCC
objectives for the reduction of greenhouse gas
emissions.
Moldova’s national framework document regarding its
environmental policy adopted in 2001 emphasizes
elements such as: the harmonization with the EU
strategies and programmes; drafting a framework
document regarding the ratification and implementation
mechanisms of international conventions and protocols;
signing bilateral cooperation protocols with Romania,
Ukraine, Belarus and the Russian Federation; signing
and ratifying regional agreements such as the
convention on cooperation for the preservation and
sustainability of the Danube river.
The 2004 report on the environmental status of
Moldova identifies a set of basic principles on
international cooperation on environmental preservation
and sustainable development, including the
strengthening of institutional capacity by participating in
international and bilateral agreements; making
compatible the national environmental legislation with
international conventions and EU legislation; and
mobilizing the financial and technical assistance for
implementing the environmental national policy.
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note that climate change adaptation can be a driver for
updating and improving natural resource use. Facing
serious challenges of adaptation to climate change, the
Azerbaijan government already in the first report to the
UNFCCC in 2000 identified priority adaptation
measures and tried to estimate costs.
The Kyoto Protocol was subsequently ratified by
Georgia in June 1999, by Azerbaijan in September
2000, and by Armenia in May 2003. However, as
„countries in transition‟, these countries are not obliged
to meet a specific emission reduction target by 2012.
government moves to adopt market-oriented policies
since the 1980s.
Mitigation Potential in Turkey includes: privatizing
energy resource production; increasing the share of
natural gas in consumption; transferring electricity
production and distribution to the private sector to make
utility services more efficient; encourage power savings
by matching costs to prices and preventing theft;
developing new and renewable energy sources and
ensuring their greater role in the market; converting
railway management to commercial orientation to
ensure efficient, market-oriented services; investing in
natural gas pipelines and storage facilities; increasing
energy efficiency and ensuring energy saving.
By contrast, significant barriers to mitigation
opportunities in Turkey include: lack of information, lack
of capacity, market distortion, lack of technology and
investment.
In light of these barriers, efforts to promote further
emissions mitigation will require new policies leveraging
drivers for other developing country objectives. Experts
suggest a variety of strategies to encourage emissions
mitigation including realizing synergies between climate
mitigation and local environmental objectives, such as
improving air quality and encouraging forest and land
conservation.
3.3. Combating Climate Change in Turkey
Turkey is at the crossroads of Asia, Europe, and Africa,
occupying a strategic position on the energy transit
route linking the oil- and gas-rich Caspian Sea to
demand centres in Europe and the Mediterranean.
Turkey’s high rate of energy-related carbon emissions
growth is expected to accelerate, with emissions
climbing from 57 million tons in 2000 to almost 210
million tons in 2020. Carbon intensity in Turkey is
higher than the western developed nation average.
Energy-intensive, inefficient industries remain under
government control with soft budget constraints,
contributing to undisciplined energy use. Planned
industrial privatizations may close the oldest and most
inefficient operations and modernize surviving ones.
Elimination of energy price subsidies could stimulate
energy conservation, reducing energy and emissions
growth below current projections. Turkey stands at a
cultural crossroads between Asia, Europe, and Africa,
and is a transit route for energy exports from Caspian
Sea oil and gas fields. Ongoing emissions mitigation in
Turkey is driven by economic restructuring, European
integration, price reform, fuel switching, and energy
efficiency measures. Restructuring and reform have
resulted from government moves to adopt marketoriented policies since the 1980s. Turkey established a
Customs Union with the EU in 1996, thus achieving a
much higher level of integration both in commercial and
legislative terms, and ratified the Energy Charter Treaty
in 2001. The treaty requires each party to minimize
energy-related environmental impacts in an economic
manner.
The new Natural Gas Market Law, also adopted in
2001, establishes a competitive gas market and
harmonizes Turkish legislation with European law. The
Turkish Council of Ministers has adopted several
measures to stabilize fuel prices. An automatic pricing
formula was abolished and gasoline taxes were made
consistent with European countries.
Ongoing emissions mitigation in Turkey is driven by
economic restructuring, European integration, price
reform, fuel switching, and energy efficiency measures.
Restructuring and reform have resulted from
3.4. Romania and Bulgaria
In the EU, the energy issue is managed at a Member
State level, without a common policy.
Bulgaria has harmonized all the aspects of the
environmental legislation with the EU legislation. Based
on the legal acts the Government has approved a set of
secondary laws, regulations and methodologies of the
Ministry of Environment and Water (MOEW) and its
subsidiaries, which are already operational. An InterMinisterial Committee on Climate Change (IMCCC) was
set up under the Governmental decision to coordinate
the implementation of the First Action Plan on Climate
Change in July 2000. In addition, a Steering Committee
for Joint Implementation projects under the Kyoto
Protocol, was set up as an evaluation body, too.
The harmonization of the legislation is ongoing and all
the already approved and the future EU legislative
initiatives in the field of climate change will find place
within the Bulgarian legislation.
The Bulgaria obligations in the climate change policy
follow from multilateral and bilateral international
agreements, from the EU legislation in the field of
climate change as well as from the national legislation
In order to translate the acquis communitaire into the
national law, Romania has also introduced and
implemented a series of policies and measures that
have directly or indirectly reduced emissions of
greenhouse gases. The legislative framework for the
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energy and environment sector has been changed and
adapted to the relevant Community legislation by the
relevant ministries, authorities and agencies, in view of
Romania's admission to the EU and then as a Member
State, but also as a consequence of its transition to a
functioning market economy.
The main framework of the environmental policy in the
country is the National Environmental Strategy, which
serves as a base for the activities in the environmental
policy areas, including climate change.
Romania's Energy Strategy for 2007-2020 has set as
the general objective of the strategy the meeting of
energy needs both for the present as well as for
medium and long term, at the lowest possible price,
suitable for a modern market economy and a civilized
standard of life, in terms of quality, food safety, while
respecting the principles of sustainable development.
The EU political objectives of the three targets of 20%
in terms of the shares of renewable energy resources,
the reduction of the emissions of greenhouse gases,
and the efficiency of the energy consumption are
difficult challenges for the rich states as well, but the
more so for countries like Romania.
transform the BSR into a model of clean energy by
adopting low pollutant practices through resource
efficient and climate resilient economies, in mitigating
climate change; developing regional policy approaches
on mitigating climate change with respect to the
capabilities of the countries concerned and at the same
time ensuring energy security and a sustainable
development process providing for growth, employment
and welfare; striving to develop common approaches
on climate change demonstrating leadership and strong
commitment to action in the international arena, aiming
at contributing to international and regional agreements
through seeking the possibility of developing common
policy positions, as well as project- based initiatives;
continuing the work on the adoption of regional
regulations and development programmes, so as to set
the framework for attracting public and private
investment in all sectors that can contribute to this
vision; benefiting from the existing network of civil
society organizations dealing with climate change and
environmental issues in the Black Sea area;
strengthening collaboration on addressing common
challenges by elaborating shared plans and initiatives
concerning the implementation of models of
environmental risks assessment, especially early
warning prediction models, with the aim of taking joint
measures and increasing safety precautions against
disasters in the wider Black Sea area; further increasing
public awareness on ecological issues for the long-term
safety of the Black Sea environment; commitment to
contribute to the success of the UNFCCC.
4. Conclusions
Black Sea Region (BSR) countries should be helped to
adapt to climate change notably through cost-effective
adaptation measures such as water conservation,
public planning, awareness raising, developing
partnerships and improving disaster or crisis
management.
Specific technical guidance, through exchanges of
experience, best practice, co-operation and projects on
the ground should be provided. The EU and its member
states must carry out an analysis of the impacts of
climate change on the BSR’s security situation,
including livelihood security. They must furthermore
support concrete adaptation and mitigation measures
while ensuring that national policies are supportive of
adaptation and mitigation.
The EU should help BSR countries to exploit their
renewable energy potential through technical and
economic support, particularly with regards to decisionmaking, data collection and cost-benefit analysis of
policy options. BSR countries will also need help in
devising policies that will facilitate the entry of
renewable energy on the energy market, including the
gradual removal of energy subsidies.
The EU should adopt an EU energy policy for the
region. It should ensure that it is in line with the EU’s
own sustainable energy goals, including with the
strategy set out in the Energy Package. The EU should
reduce investments in fossil fuel projects to invest more
in renewable alternatives. Further steps in combating
climate in the BSR include: endorsing the vision to
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