Download Andrew Boswell November 2007

Where Next for
Climate Action?
Addressing Social Justice, Ecological
Restoration and Climate Safety in a
world of limited resources
introduced by Dr Andrew Boswell,
core member biofuelwatch,
climate and environmental campaigner,
Green Party councillor on Norfolk County Council
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
Social : Environmental : Indigenous
The only way we are
going to put out
the environmental
fire is to get on the
social justice bus
and heal our
wounds, because
in the end, there is
only one bus.
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
Topics
• The science is real – what
are the issues?
Climate Change (CC)
– Carbon sinks
– Runaway climate change
• Climate Stabilisation
– Community action
– International/national/local
– Getting on the ‘one bus’
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
Now!
Climate Change
Resource
Depletion
Peak Oil
Biosink destruction
Climate Change
• Global average predicted between 1.7 ˚C
and 6.8˚C by 2100 (IPCC(4) 2007)
• Will be unevenly spread – eg some parts
of Africa and poles twice this
• Water resources decimated
• Food supplies
• Flooding
• Environmental refugees
• Strange climate events
– Tropical cyclone Catarina, Brazil – March 2004
– Norfolk Sea Surges
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
How warming might happen?
yarqvy – Source BBC
Website
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
IPCC 4th
assessment
Hansen “safe” level
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
5
Recent
emissions
Trajectory
of
Global
Fossil
Fuel Emissions
0
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
CO2 Emissions (GtC y-1)
Budget
10
•Atmospheric
CO2 – GCP-Global Carbon 50-year
Actual emissions: CDIAC
constant
team:
growing 35%
Actualmore
emissions: EIA
growth rates
9
450ppm stabilisation
to 2050
quickly than650ppm
<2000
stabilisation
2006
Pep Canadell,
Philippe Ciais,
A1FI
2005
•18%8 decline
B1
1.1%,
A1B of
Thomas Conway, Chris
Field,
A1T
A1B 1.7%,
natural sinks
Corinne Le Quéré,
A2
A2
1.8%
7
B1 fossil
•17% - more
Skee Houghton,
A1FI 2.4%
B2
fuel use
Gregg Marland, Mike Raupach,
Observed
Erik Buitenhuis, Nathan
Gillett
6
2000-2006
3.3%
5
1990
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
1995
2000
2005
Where Next for
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS Climate Action?
2010
National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)
Arctic 2007 Summer Ice Melt
Non-linear effect?
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
Global Energy Projections, IEA, 2007
71% by 2030
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
Emission sources
• Deforestation, agriculture and peat
• Anthropogenic energy
From Stern
Report
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
Wetlands / Peat
Kalimantan: Peatland forest on fire
Pristine peat swamp
forest, Sumatra.
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
Rainforest
Rainforest fires
Tropical rainforest
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
Runaway Climate Change
• Speed up of Arctic Ice Melt
• Loss of Ocean/Biosphere Carbon
sinks
• Siberian Tundra melt (Methane)
• Deep Ocean Methane Hydrates
• Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet
• Melting / break up of West Antartica
Ice Sheet
• Switching off of Gulf Stream
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
Permaforst
Carbon sinks: Permafrost
Carbon releases when it melts
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
Positive feedbacks – not on
political radar
• IPCC Assessment Reports are scientifically
conservative.
– Are constrained by what is politically and
economically acceptable.
– Are also some two years out of date when
published.
• Dynamic positive feedbacks – emerging
science during last 2 years
• All Party Parliamentary Climate Change
Group (APPCCG) trying to highlight
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
How much warming / moreghgs is
safe?
None!
•We are experiencing
effects from 30 years
ago
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
The issue is not can
we stop climate
change BUT
can we stop
catastopic runaway
climate change?
Rest of World
India
China
Annex 1 (non-OECD)
OECD minus USA
USA
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
What could happen
• 185 million people sub-Saharan
Africa (3x UK population) could die of
disease. (Christian Aid report)
• Drought/soil erosion lead to many
areas going into “structural famine”
• 800 million people malnourished now
• Could increase to 2bn
• Millions starving to death
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
Food vs (bio) Fuel
• Low-Income FoodDeficit countries
(LIFDCs) :: Social
unrest / food riots
• Feed prices 
• Huge industry denial
• Food sovereignty
– Best land taken for
agrofuels
– Even import poor
quality food
• 16 million starve per
1% commodity price
rise
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
1.5 m. rise in Bangladesh
… But what we would desperately
like to rely more on is decisive
international action to stop this
threat.
Sabihuddin Ahmed High Commissioner of
Bangladesh to UK, Sept 25th 2006
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
Indigenous peoples
• Crisis of land displacement, food
sovereignty, climate/biofuel
refugees, deforestation, loss of
traditional ways
• Land grabbing by large corporations
• See ‘climate change’ policy in North
as problem as it is causing social
injustice
• Need to get on same bus!
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
Where we are at
• IPCC behind latest science
• Feedbacks not widely understood
• Sinks showing early signals of loosing
efficacy?
• Sinks being destroyed
• Business as usual paradigm prevails
• International negotiations – no teeth, too
slow
• Indigenous and dispossessed –
disempowered, widening poverty gap
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
What to do?
• Protect all carbon sinks
– URGENT Moratorium on all old-growth
deforestation, peat-land burning and
swampland drainage
• URGENT decarbonisation of global economy
– Post-Kyoto with deep cut “Contraction and
convergence” model
•LOCAL ACTION AND
BLESSED UNREST
• Unite North-South, Social Action and Ecological
protection
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
Protect all carbon sinks
URGENT Moratorium on all oldgrowth deforestation, peatland burning and swampland
drainage
– Must be protected
against destruction
for timber, food
growing and
biofuels
development
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
Ecological restoration
• Where can big emissions be cut
quickly and cost effectively?
• CUT deforestation 2Gt CO2 / yr
• STOP SE ASIA Peat fires –
1.3Gt CO2 / yr
• Regenerate peat lands – 0.5Gt
– 8% of current GHGs
• UNFCCC must act at Bali
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
Ecological Impacts
• Massive land use
change
– Renton Righelato
and Dominick V.
Spracklen, Science,
August 2007
– Ecological
restoration and
forestation would
sequester 2-9 more
carbon than biofuels
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
Contraction and Convergence
Business as Usual
(BAU)
Emissions are contracting
Rest of World
India
China
Annex 1 (non-OECD)
OECD minus USA
Converging to per capita level
USA
Continue to contract to post carbon era
1900
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
1950
2000
Where Next for
Climate Action?
2050
2100
UNDP Report – pre-Bali
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
Changing UK situation?
White paper 13/3/07
• 26%-32%“ by 2020 (c.2.1-2.6% annum)
• 60% by 2050
• Govt. wants only 5 year targets
• Brown not interested in environment
•
•
•
•
IPPR report at least 80% cuts needed
UNDP pre-Bali at least 80% cuts
George Monbiot – 90% by 2030
GM now thinking 100%
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
There is NO 2% excuse !
• Phil Woolas, Minister of Climate Change
said on 20th September “we see that as
much as 15% of world carbon
emissions are a direct result of UK
economic activity both at home and
abroad. “
– Global spread of ‘City business interests’
– Imports from China etc – our dependence on
their economy AND THEIR EMISSIONS
• For the full context of this, see :
http://tinyurl.com/ywoo44
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
UNDP
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
Changing EU situation?
• EU 10/3/07
– Binding unilateral target for a 20% reduction in
greenhouse gases for the EU by 2020
(c. 1.5% per annum)
• BUT
– Based on ‘business as usual‘ energy growth
– has destructive biofuel policy
– and Nuclear etc
• Merkel UNFCCC bargaining
– 30% greenhouse gas reductions on 1990
levels for developed countries by 2020 if other
big polluters come on board
(c. 2.3% per annum)
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
Changing US situation?
• Schwarzenegger
: California 2006
c. 1% annum
• Boxer Bill
80% by 2050
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
UK can lead
• Internationally – at UNFCCC, Bali
– Germany taking a strong line
•US! – We do have the wherewithal to take on
this challenge, and restructure our economy and
ways of living to make deep cuts to our
emissions. People have managed such change
before – for example during the second world
war. I already see people starting to do this at
every level from the community to local
government to national government to industry
etc. Its time to stop arguing about the need to
do it and just get on with it.
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
Environmental Action Hierarchy
International/Global
–UN, Post-Kyoto
Continental
–EU/US/India/China
–Energy policy
–Carbon trading
–Sustainable
Development
–Agriculture
–Localised planning
–Localised economy
–Participatory democracy
–Local Action
–Transition towns
National
Regional
Shire
District
Personal/Community
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
Decarbonisation
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
Descending the transport emissions
curve - Demand reduction is key
160Reduce vehicle emissions by 50%
Current EU energy policy
- smaller, more efficient vehicles
140
120
100
90% carbon
Reduce
journeys –emission
planning, modal shift,
80
60
decouple needed
transport
reduction
URGENTLY!
from economy
Reduce liquid fuel – plug-in hybrids
40
Change Supply - Concentrating Solar Power
?
20
1990
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
2000
2010
Where Next for
Climate Action?
2020
Descending the energy emissions
curve - Demand reduction is key
160 Reduce waste – energy saving in
Current EU energy policy
homes - insulation
140
120
100
80
60
90%
carbon
emission
Reduce
demand
– use energy more
carefully,
put on a sweater etc
reduction
needed
URGENTLY!
Reduce waste in generation
40
Decarbonise – renewables. Decentralised best,
but some large scaleneedfor base loads etc
20
1990
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
2000
2010
Where Next for
Climate Action?
2020
Waste in current system
• 60-70% of natural
gas and coal burnt
goes up chimney and
is loss in
transmission.
• Decentralised energy
– Combined heat and
power (CHP)
– Single home, city
community, industrial
area
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
y94hdk – About the
WADE economic model
Where Next for
Climate Action?
Decentralised energy
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
Can it be done?
• Denmark : 50% electricity
decentralised
• Holland : 40%
• 15,000 CHP systems already exist in
UK – hospitals, universities, factories
• BUT need much more : UK is near
bottom of EU table for
implementation
yfc4n9 – Combined Heat and Power Association
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
Big scale renewables
• On shore wind
– 50% increase in 2006 = 511Mw=c.0.5
nuclear power station
– Key to Government meeting 2010
renewables target
– Planning system
delays
• Off shore wind
– Will be big provider
after 2010
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
CSP – Concentrated Solar
Power
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
Microgeneration
• Solar water heating
• Small scale wind
PV Panels at Greenhouse, Norwich
– BEWARE!
• Solar energy
generation
– photovoltaics (PV)
• Ground source heat pumps
• Biomass CHP
• Problem/challenges - Retrofitting?
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
Structural Alternatives
• Localising economies
– de-globalising Food/Agriculture/Production
• Sustainable/affordable housing
– eliminate fuel poverty
• Community Waste Programmes
– Zero Waste
• Ecoliteracy/eco-education
– Appropriate consumption
• Non-violence/conflict resolution
• Restoration projects
• Local renewable energy projects
87fbmBoswell
– Incineration Or Something
Sensible
Where
Next for
Andrew
Climate Action?
November
2007
8gj8c - Center
for Ecoliteracy
?
Transition Towns
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
CRAGS – Carbon Reduction
Action Groups
One tonners
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
Livestock’s long shadow
• Impacts on water, land degradation,
climate change (18% of emissions)
• Need for 50% less meat and 50% less
meat industry products
• Meat consumption going up quickly in
India and China (part of current high food
commodity prices)
• Need for contraction and convergence of
animal husbandry?
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
JOIN THE BLESSED UNREST
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?
BLESSED UNREST
• Sign up to the biofuelwatch yahoo group send a blank email to [email protected]
• www.biofuelwatch.org.uk
• D8 Climate March, London
• Norwich Climate rally: Pottergate on the
pathway and the green outside St.Gregory’s
Church, at 1200 on Saturday 8th December.
• National Week of Local Action on
Agrofuels from Saturday, 26th January
2008
Andrew Boswell
November 2007
Where Next for
Climate Action?