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The North American boreal forests: impacts, adaptations and uncertainty in the face of Anthropogenic Global Warming. The boreal forests of the world like other forests are sensitive to climate change. The boreal forests are both affected by and contribute to climate change, as its presence over large areas of the earth has a significant effect on the radiative balance of the planet (ACIA, 2005)1. Today mostly due to deforestation and the burning of fossil fuels, the chemical composition of the atmosphere is changed and the greenhouse effect is enhanced, leading to an energy imbalance that results in the earth’s gradual warming (about 0.5 degrees globally since 1950 alone) (Hansen., 2004)2. Because today’s climate change is more influenced and a result of human activities instead natural variations, this work will refer to this type of climate change as Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW). Boreal forests are vulnerable to AGW. Trees may expand into the tundra but die back along southern prairie ecotones, there may be a loss of evergreen trees and a shift towards deciduous trees, some boreal forests may collapse in some areas, while becoming more evergreen in the north, and increased disturbances from fires and insect out breaks will shift parts of the boreal forest to a younger age class (Bonan., 2008)3. The boreal forest like the rest of the planet is influenced and impacted by AGW. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the impacts that AGW is projected to have, and is currently effecting the boreal forests of North America, while at the same time, analyzing how this forest is adapting to its changing environment. The boreal forest is defined as the overall forested area within the boreal zone. The boreal forest is sometimes referred to as the boreal zone itself, because forests dominate this landscape. The boreal is mainly characterized by a small number of coniferous species including spruce, pine, larch and fir, and a limited number of broad-leaved species such as birch and poplar (ACIA, 2005)4. This forest is found across a broad circumpolar vegetation zone in the high latitudes (Natural Resources Canada, 2012)5, although in this paper we focus only on the boreal forests of North America. Image 1 Image 1: Global temperature anomalies between 1880 and 2011. 2011 is the 9th warmest year on record. Baseline used between 1951-1980. Source: National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Image 2 Range and growth changes The range of the boreal forest of North America is shifting in latitude and altitude. The vegetation changes in northern North America are significant. In Alaska along the Arctic to Sub-Arctic boundary the tree line has moved about 10km northwards within the past 50 years. Also 2% of Alaskan tundra has been displaced by forest within the same time frame (IPCC, AR4, WG2, CH 15)6. The tree line is advancing generally in both a northern direction as well as higher in elevation. These Arctic and alpine tree lines are an important indicator of change in the boreal region, because they mark the very limit of the boreal forest (LLOYD., 2005)7. These changes in range are adaptations to (in part) warmer temperatures that allow for the range shifts to occur. The boreal forest is expanding its range in latitude and altitude as a result of AGW, however this is only where soils are adequate for this expansion to take place. In these areas it is projected that species richness will increase as relatively species rich forests displace tundra. Some species in isolated favorable microenvironments which are considerably further north of their main distribution, are also likely to spread rapidly as a result and adaptation of AGW. A “moderate” projection for 2100 for the replacement of tundra by boreal forest is about 10%, however estimates of up to 50% have been published (IPCC, AR4, WG2, CH 15)8. Temperature changes cannot be considered in isolation because they are not the sole control of species distribution, or of the expansion of the boreal forest. Other factors, including soil characteristics, nutrient availability and disturbance regimes may prove to be more important than temperature in controlling future ecosystem dynamics (Climate Change Image 2: Present and projected vegetation and minimum sea-ice Impacts and Adaptation, A Canadian extent for Arctic and neighbouring regions. Vegetation maps based on 9 floristic surveys (top) and projected vegetation for 2090-2100, Perspective 2004) . For example cold soil predicted by the LPJ Dynamic Vegetation Model driven by the temperatures act as the limit to the extent of HadCM2 climate model (bottom) modified from Kaplan et al. (2003) in Callaghan et al. (2005). Also shown are observed minimum sea-ice the northern Canadian boreal forest, extent for September 2002, and projected sea-ice minimum extent, together with potential new/improved sea routes (redrawn from nstanes et al., 2005; Walsh et al., 2005). Source: AR4, IPCC WG2 CH 15 compared to the southern Canadian boreal where forest appears to be influenced more by interspecies competition and moisture conditions, than by temperature tolerance (Brooks et al., 1998)10. Increased CO2 concentrations are currently influencing forest growth rates. Not only is the boreal’s traditional range shifting, its rate of growth is increased currently by a small amount. Increased forest growth rates are a direct adaptation to increased CO2 emissions. It is likely that a further increase of temperature of a few degrees will accelerate productivity of the boreal forest. Satellite-based measures of the greenness of the boreal forest zone, illustrate a lengthening of the growing season over the past two decades (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005)11. The degree to which changes in climate and in this case AGW, have already affected and continue to affect productivity of forests and their ability to supply services, varies across space and time (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005)12. Temporal patterns of temperature and precipitation are the two most fundamental factors determining the distribution and productivity of vegetation. Because AGW alters these two characteristics of an ecosystem, climate change is currently and will continue to cause forest adaptation, by geographically shifting the ranges of individual species and general vegetation zones across the boreal region (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005)13. On a continental scale however, increased net productivity of North American ecosystems is projected, due to the expansion of the boreal forest into the tundra, and longer growing seasons. Forest growth is currently slowly accelerating in regions where tree growth has historically been limited by low temperatures and short growing seasons (IPCC, Climate Change and Water, 2008)14. As climate changes, individual tree species will adapt by migrating, the same way they have done so in the past. However, concerns are present that the rapid rate of AGW will test this generation of trees, and its dispersal abilities. The successful migration of tree species can also be slowed and affected by additional factors such as habitat fragmentation, competition from exotic species, changes in timing and rate of seed production (which may limit migration rates) as well as unsustainable forestry practices (Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation, A Canadian Perspective 2004)15. Ecosystem Disturbances: An ecosystem disturbance is defined as a change in the state of condition that disrupts the way in which the system has been functioning (for example: water regulation, photosynthesis etc), causing it to reinstate succession development. These disturbances can vary by cause, rate, extent, intensity, timing, frequency and duration (ACIA 2005)16. Disturbances such as wildfire and insect outbreaks are currently increasing as a result of AGW, and are likely to intensify in a warmer future with drier soils and longer growing seasons (IPCC, AR4, WG2, CH 14)17. Fire Disturbances Every year Canada’s boreal forest is affected by disturbances such as fires, insects and disease. In 2010 roughly 3.15 million hectares of forest area was burned in Canada, much of it the boreal forest (Natural Resources Canada, 2011)18. Fire disturbances are influenced by weather conditions. Increases in warm and dry weather conditions should result in increased frequency and severity of fires throughout Canada’s boreal forest (The Canada Country Study, 1998)19. The area burned by forest fires in the Canadian boreal has increased over the past four decades, at the same time as summer season temperatures have warmed. AGW has been found to have a detectable influence on the area burned by forest fire in Canada over the recent decades. Research suggests that AGW has significantly contributed to this recent trend, toward increasing severity of forest fires in the boreal region. Variations in temperature were found to explain much of the variability in the area burned (Gillet et al., 2004)20. Fire season severity in the Canadian boreal is generally projected to increase in the future due to AGW. Influencing factors for this projection include a longer fire season, drier conditions and more lightning storms. However there is still uncertainty in this subject as research is not always consistent, and warm weather and dry conditions do not necessarily lead to a bad forest fire season. This was exemplified across Canada in 2001, where despite extreme heat and dryness, wildfire frequency as well as the total area burned was the lowest on record (Environment Canada, 2009)21. Vegetation type influences changes in fire frequency and intensity. For example, conifers are more likely to experience intense fires than deciduous or mixed wood stands. Species migrations in response to AGW will also affect future fire behaviors by changing fuel types. Other factors that influence fire seasons particularly in the boreal include wind, lightning frequency, antecedent moisture conditions and fire management mechanisms (Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation, A Canadian Perspective 2004)22. Wildfire-burned area in the North American boreal region has increased from 6 500 km /year in the 1960s, to 29 700 km2/year in the 1990s. This warming climate resulting from AGW encourages wildfires through longer summer periods that dries fuels, promoting easier ignition and faster fire spread. Earlier spring snowmelt also leads to longer growing seasons and drought, where this is especially relevant in higher elevations, where increases in wildfire have been greatest. In the Canadian boreal region warmer May to August temperatures of 0.8 degrees Celsius since 1970, are strongly correlated with the total area burned (IPCC, AR4, WG2, CH 14)23. 2 Image 3 Image 3: Anomaly in 5-year mean area burned annually in wildfires in Canada since 1930, plus observed mean summer air temperature anomaly, weighted for fire areas, relative to 1920 to 1999 (data from Gillett et al., 2004). Source: IPCC AR4, WG2, CH 14. Insect and Disease Disturbances AGW tends to accelerate insect development rates, facilitates range expansions of pests and increases over-winter survival rates. Because of their short life cycles, mobility, reproductive potential, and physiological sensitivity to temperature, even modest climate change will have rapid impacts on the distribution and abundance of many forest insects and pathogens (Ayres and Lombardero., 2000)24. These qualities allow for insects and pathogens to quickly exploit new conditions and take advantage of new opportunities. The range and development increases brought to insects from AGW temperature increases currently affect, and will continue to increasingly affect the Canadian boreal forests. Periodic insect epidemics kill trees over large regions, providing dead fuels for large wildfires. These epidemics are related to aspects of insect life cycles that are climate sensitive. Many boreal insects have a two year life cycle; however warmer winter temperatures allow a larger fraction of overwintering larvae to survive. For example recently in the Alaskan boreal, spruce budworm has completed its life cycle in one year, rather than the previous two years. In addition to this the mountain pine beetle has expanded its range in British Columbia into areas that were previously too cold (IPCC, AR4, WG2, CH 14)25. From 1998 to 2010 the mountain pine beetle has killed more than 700 million cubic meters of pine in British Columbia. Aided by warming temperatures, the range of this beetle is expanding eastward from mature pine forests on the eastern slopes of the Rockies, across into Alberta. Future eastward expansion of the beetle depends on its ability to survive the winter, the frequency of summer drought, suitability of boreal forest pines to host the beetle, and the effectiveness of intensive efforts to control the beetle populations (Natural Resources Canada, 2011)26. AGW has greatly aided the beetle expand its range, and it is likely this will continue as temperatures across the boreal region increase. Image 4 Image 4:. Annual anomalies of land-surface air temperature in the Arctic (60º to 90º N) for the period 1900 to 2003 using the GHCN dataset (updated from Peterson and Vose, 1997). Anomalies are calculated relative to the 1961–1990 average. The smoothed curve was created using a 21-point binomial filter, which approximates a 10-year running mean. Note: When compared to a GLOBAL temperature anomaly, you can clearly see that the warming in the Arctic is much more significant. Source (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment 2005) It is possible that AGW will have further indirect effects on boreal forest disturbance by pests. For example, longer drought conditions and ecosystem instability caused by species migrations may increase the sensitivity of trees to insect defoliation. This is significant because in many regions, defoliation by pests represents the most important controlling factor of tree growth (Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation, A Canadian Perspective 2004)27. Although increases in anthropogenic carbon emissions may increase forest productivity, these increases may further reduce tree defenses against insects and diseases. AGW may also affect insect outbreaks by altering the abundance of insect enemies, mutualists and competitors. For example changes in the range of predators and prey of these insects could alter ecosystem dynamics by reducing the biological controls on certain pest populations (Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation, A Canadian Perspective 2004)28. Uncertainties: There are many uncertainties regarding how the boreal forests of North America, influence and will be influenced by AGW. Extreme weather impacts on the boreal forest are an example of uncertainty. The 1998 Ice storm that hit eastern Canada clearly demonstrated that extreme climate events in the boreal can damage trees comparably to that of the most destructive windstorms and hurricanes recorded anywhere. Wind related events may also have consequences for other forest disturbances such as fires and insect outbreaks. A warmer climate may be more conductive of extreme wind events, however there is much uncertainty on this issue. Wind phenomena are localized events and are poorly understood (Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation, A Canadian Perspective 2004)29. Together with the fact that reliable modeling of future wind event frequency is not available it is impossible to project a universal trend regarding the increases and severity of wind related storms in the boreal. Uncertainties also remain about the influence of the boreal forest on each of the key processes that determine the global carbon balance. For instance, the uptake of atmospheric CO2 by tree and other plant growth in the boreal may increase or decrease with increasing temperatures, depending on the species, the geographic region where the growth occurs, the range of temperature increase, and other climate factors such as precipitation that are likely to change in a changing climate (ACIA, 2005)30. Projections of AGW have uncertainties especially on a regional scale. In North America, there is greater uncertainty about future precipitation than future temperature. This considerably expands the uncertainty of a broad range of impacts on boreal ecosystems (IPCC, AR4, WG2, CH 14)31. Climate change adds major uncertainty to basic assumptions about future forest condition, growth, and uses that are critical in making decisions in the present. Major climate shifts would alter these factors in ways which are not entirely understood, however it is very likely these will be very disruptive (ACIA, 2005)32. There are uncertainties in the detection and projection of terrestrial changes for the boreal region, leading to implications for resource use and climatic feedbacks. There is also uncertainty in current and future regional carbon balances over northern landscapes, as well as their abilities to drive global climate change. Part of the reason for such uncertainty in the boreal is due to the remoteness and harsh environments of the North American Boreal region. Data collection is constrained, due to observational networks being sparse and only recently established (IPCC, AR4, WG2, CH 15)33. Conclusions: As a result of warming temperatures from AGW, the boreal forest is slowly adapting by shifting its range in two directions. These directions are northern in latitude and higher in altitude. The boreal tree line has been found to follow these directions (IPCC, AR4, WG2, CH 15)34. This is significant because these Arctic and alpine tree lines are an important indicator of change in the boreal region, because they mark the very limit of the boreal forest (LLOYD., 2005)35. Continentally in the North America boreal region, increased net productivity of ecosystems is projected, due to the expansion of the boreal forest into the tundra, and longer growing seasons. Forest growth is currently slowly accelerating in regions where tree growth has historically been limited by low temperatures and short growing seasons (Climate Change and Water, 2008)36. Although recent climate trends from AGW have increased vegetation growth in the boreal forests of North America, continuing increases in disturbances are likely to limit carbon storage, facilitate invasive species and disrupt ecosystem services. Warmer summer temperatures are expected to extend the annual window of high fire ignition risk by 10-30%, and could result in increased area burned by 74-118% in Canada by 2100. Over the 21st century, pressure for species to shift northwards and to higher elevations will fundamentally rearrange North American boreal ecosystems. Different capacities for range shifts as well as constraints from development, habitat fragmentation, invasive species, and broken ecological connections will alter ecosystem structure, function and services (IPCC, AR4, WG2, CH 15)37. Due to complex interconnecting ecosystem processes, as well as the general remoteness and harshness of the boreal forests, data collection is constrained which leads to observational networks being sparse and relatively new. As a result of this there are still many uncertainties in understanding how AGW will impact the boreal system, how the boreal system will adapt, as well as how the boreal system will in turn affect further climate change(IPCC, AR4, WG2, CH 15)38. This paper illustrated some of the impacts and adaptations the boreal forests of North America are going through, as a result of AGW. It is important to study this because the boreal forest contains trees growing at the highest latitudes on earth, where its northern margin merges with the circum polar tundra. These high latitudinal impacts of AGW can act as indicators of change in other regions. This is because the impacts from AGW are enhanced in the high latitudes due to polar amplification (Moritz et al., 2002)39. The boreal forest is both affected by and contributes to climate change. The radiative balance of the earth is affected by the rough textured dark surface of land, covered with boreal forest canopy which intercepts and absorbs high amounts of solar radiation converting it into heat. In high latitude regions where snow covers the ground for extended periods of the year, the albedo effect of tundra vs. boreal forest cover is magnified. Further expansion of the forest into present day tundra regions resulting from a warming climate would thus amplify the warming further (ACIA, 2005). Understanding these AGW processes, impacts and adaptations of the boreal forest will help policy makers make more informed decisions on how to mitigate and prepare for further AGW impacts on the rest of Canada. References 1) ACIA, 2005. Arctic Climate Impact Asessment, (chapter 14). Cambridge University Press. 1042p. Retrieved from the worldwide web at http://www.acia.uaf.edu/pages/scientific.html 2) HANSEN, J. (2004). TIME BOMB. Scientific American, Retrieved from the worldwide web at http://geosciences.u-cergy.fr/ENSEIGNEMENT/LICENCE/LICENCE-STE/LSTE-S3anglais/files_english/Lesson%20%232.pdf 3) Bonan, G. B. (2008). Forests and Climate Change: Forcings, Feedbacks.science, 1155121(1444), 320. Retrieved from the worldwide web at http://climatelab.org/@api/deki/files/322/%3Dforests_and_climate_change_forcings%25252c_fe edbacks%25252c_and_the_climate_benefits_of_forests.pdf 4) ACIA, 2005. Arctic Climate Impact Asessment, (chapter 14). Cambridge University Press. 1042p. Retrieved from the worldwide web at http://www.acia.uaf.edu/pages/scientific.html 5) Natural Resources Canada (2012). Defining the boreal, North America’s boreal zone. Retrieved from the worldwide web at http://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/pages/255 6) Anisimov, O.A., D.G. Vaughan, T.V. Callaghan, C. Furgal, H. Marchant, T.D. Prowse, H. Vilhjálmsson and J.E. Walsh, 2007: Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 653-685. Retrieved from the worldwide web at http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessmentreport/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter15.pdf 7) LLOYD, A. H. (2005). ECOLOGICAL HISTORIES FROM ALASKAN TREE LINES PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO FUTURE CHANGE. Ecology, 86(7), 1687-1695. Retrieved from the worldwide web at http://www.lter.uaf.edu/dev2009/pdf/900_lloyd_2005.pdf 8) Anisimov, O.A., D.G. Vaughan, T.V. Callaghan, C. Furgal, H. Marchant, T.D. Prowse, H. Vilhjálmsson and J.E. Walsh, 2007: Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. 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Work presented to Melanie McCavour Class: GEOG 474: Sustainable Forest Management Finalized by Alexander do Rio, on November 11th 2012