Download AASHTODesign-Meyer - Subcommittee on Design

Adapting to Climate Change:
Current Actions and Challenges
AASHTO Subcommittee on Design
Columbia, SC
July 27, 2010
Professor Michael D. Meyer
Frederick R. Dickerson Professor
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Georgia Institute of Technology
Adaptation
Research
Mitigation
Adaptation
1% Annual VMT Growth + 100 mpgge
LDV Fleet + 10% Operational Efficiency =
74% GHG Reduction by 2050 for LDVs
1600
Reducing VMT growth (smart
growth, transit, carpooling,
vanpooling, walking, TDM, and
pricing-related strategies) to
+1.0% annual.
1400
System/vehicle operational
efficiency (speed limit
reductions/enforcement,
ecodriving, smoothing out traffic
flow, proper tires and inflation,
removing bottlenecks, etc.)
1000
Highest LDV CO2e Emissions
Reductions (79% Reduction
CO2e/Vehicle Mile) by 2050
800
Light duty fleet GHG emissions
600
400
GHG Goal 70% Reduction from
2005
200
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
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2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
(Million Metric Tons)
U.S. Light Duty Transportation CO2e Emissions
1200
State Initiatives
California Executive Order #S-13-08, Nov. 14, 2008,
Directing State Agencies to Plan for Sea Level Rise and
Climate Impacts.
Washington State: Responding to Climate Change: E2SHB
1303 directed the Departments of Ecology and Community
Trade and Economic Development (now Commerce) to
work with the Climate Impacts Group at the University of
Washington to assess climate change impacts in the state.
Massachusetts: Global Warming Solutions Act of 2008:
Climate Change Adaptation Advisory Committee: Analyze
strategies to prepare for the impacts of climate change to
the Commonwealth
California
“State agencies should generally not plan,
develop, or build any new significant
structure in a place where that structure will
require significant protection from sea level
rise, storm surges, or coastal erosion during
the expected life of the structure.”
Transportation Strategies
Strategy 5 – Develop a detailed climate vulnerability
assessment and adaptation plan for California’s transportation
infrastructure.
Strategy 6 –Incorporate climate change vulnerability
assessment planning tools, policies, and strategies into
existing transportation and investment decisions.
Strategy 7 – Develop transportation design and engineering
standards to minimize climate change risks to vulnerable
transportation infrastructure.
Strategy 8 – Incorporate climate change impact
considerations into disaster preparedness planning for all
transportation modes.
http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/adaptation/index.html
Proposed CEQ Guidance
“…environmental analysis and documents
…should provide the decision maker with
relevant and timely information
about….the relationship of climate change
effects to a proposed action or
alternatives, including the relationship to
proposal design, environmental impacts,
mitigation and adaptation measures.”
Proposed CEQ Guidance
• Agencies should determine which climate change
impacts warrant consideration
• Through scoping process, agencies should determine
whether climate change considerations warrant
emphasis or de-emphasis
• Sensitivity, location, and timeframe of a proposed
action determines the degree to which consideration of
these predictions or projections is warranted
• Effects may include effects on the environment, on
public health and safety, and on vulnerable
populations who are more likely to be adversely
affected by climate change
Proposed CEQ Guidance
• Observed and projected effects of climate change that
warrant consideration are most appropriately described
as part of the current and future state of the
proposed action’s “affected environment
• “Climate change can affect the integrity of a
development or structure …. increase the
vulnerability of a resource, ecosystem, or human
community…. can magnify the damaging strength of
certain effects of a proposed action.”
• Focus of analysis should be on the aspects of the
environment that are affected by the proposed action
and the significance of climate change for those
aspects of the affected environment.
Proposed CEQ Guidance
• In cases where adaptation to the effects of climate
change is important, the significant aspects of these
changes should be identified in the agency’s final
decision and adoption of a monitoring program
should be considered. Monitoring strategies should be
modified as more information becomes available and
best practices and other experiences are shared.
Recent Case Studies from International
Conference on Adaptation, Brisbane, Australia
 Flood modeling & vulnerabilities in Manila, Philippines (JICA)
 Swiss RE: Insurance company considering adaptation risks
 Shrewsbury, UK flooding analysis: Vulnerability vs. cost
 Local Adaptation Pathways Program (LAPP) in Australia
 Melbourne water supply system vulnerability study (CSIRO)
 Australian power system risk assessment (PB project)
 Australian concrete deterioration study (CSIRO)
 Transitway planning case studies in Sydney and the Gold
Coast (Manindis Roberts)
 Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee’s
(PIEVC) work & engineering protocols in Canada
Courtesy: Chris Dorney, Parsons Brinckerhoff
Transit New Zealand
Vulnerable assets…
• Bridges
• Culverts
• Causeways and coastal roads
• Paved surfaces
• Surface drainage
• Hillside slopes
Transit New Zealand
Currently applied design approaches might
not protect bridges and culverts with a
design life of over 50 years from climate
change impacts
Transit New Zealand’s bridge design
specifications are now requiring risk analysis
for increased flood flows and consideration
of bridge retrofit for changing hydrology…
especially retrofits
A Typical Infrastructure Segment
Typical Cross Sections
Subsurface
Structures
Drainage
Materials
Foundations
Figure 1: Critical Components of Infrastructure Design
Critical Components of
Infrastructure Design
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Subsurface conditions
Materials specifications
Cross sections/standard dimensions
Drainage and erosion
Structures
Location engineering
Climate-Change
Phenomenon
Change in
Environmental
Condition
Design Implications
Climate-Change
Phenomenon
Temperature
change
Change in
Environmental
Condition
Design Implications
Over the short term*,
minimal impact on
pavement or structural
design; potential significant
impact on road, bridge
scour and culvert design in
cold regions
Rising maximum
temperature; lower
minimum
temperature; wider
temperature range;
possible significant Over the long term,
impact on
possible significant impact
permafrost
on pavement and structural
design; need for new
materials; better
maintenance strategies
Climate-Change
Phenomenon
Changing
precipitation
levels
Change in
Environmental
Condition
Design Implications
Over the short term, could
affect pavement and drainage
design; greater attention to
foundation conditions; more
Worst case scenario,
probabilistic approaches to
more precipitation;
design floods; more targeted
higher water tables;
maintenance
greater levels of
flooding; higher
Over long term, definite
moisture content in
impact on foundation design
soils
and design of drainage
systems and culverts; design
of pavement subgrade and
materials impacts
Climate-Change
Phenomenon
Wind loads
Change in Environmental
Condition
Stronger wind speeds
and thus loads on
bridge structures; more
turbulence
Design Implications
Over the short term, design
factors for design wind
speed might change; wind
tunnel testing will have to
consider more turbulent
wind conditions
Over the long term, greater
materials strength and
design considerations for
suspended and cablestayed bridges
Climate-Change
Phenomenon
Change in
Environmental
Condition
Larger and more
Storm surges and frequent storm
greater wave
surges; more
height
powerful wave
action
Design Implications
Over short term, design
changes to bridge height in
vulnerable areas; more
probabilistic approach to
predicting storm surges
Over long term, design changes
for bridge design, both
superstructure and foundations;
change in materials
specifications; more protective
strategies for critical
components
Identify trigger
levels
Assess feasibility and cost
effectiveness of adaptation strategies
Change design standards
Change operating strategies
Change maintenance practices
Change construction practices
Etc.
Identify affected
highway agency
functions
Network
Functions
Conduct risk
appraisal of
vulnerabilities and
environmental
changes
Asset A
Identify
vulnerabilities of
highway system to
these changing
conditions
Asset X
Identify impact of
these changes on
local environmental
conditions
Adaptation
Planning
Framework
Asset C
Identify predominant
climate change
trends and factors
for region
Asset B
Identify critical assets
in the network
Identify trigger
levels
Assess feasibility and cost
effectiveness of adaptation strategies
Change design standards
Change operating strategies
Change maintenance practices
Change construction practices
Etc.
Identify affected
highway agency
functions
Network
Functions
Conduct risk
appraisal of
vulnerabilities and
environmental
changes
Asset A
Identify
vulnerabilities of
highway system to
these changing
conditions
Asset X
Identify impact of
these changes on
local environmental
conditions
Adaptation
Planning
Framework
Asset C
Identify predominant
climate change
trends and factors
for region
Asset B
Identify critical assets
in the network
Proactive Strategies to Flood Risk
Preventing flooding by improving the rainfall
capture and storage capacity of a catchment (e.g.
by enhancing or mimicking the water storage
capacity of the soil);
Increasing conveyance capacity to disperse
floodwaters;
Creating policies to maintain existing levels of
service which incorporate climate change factors
at the time of repairs or upgrades;
NZ Transport Agency, Climate Change Effects on the Land Transport Network, Volume
Two: Approach to Risk Management, 2009
Proactive Strategies to Flood Risk, cont’d
Establishing physical protection measures, e.g.
building stop-banks;
Managing the effects of flooding by removing atrisk land use such as infrastructure and the built
environment in floodplains; and
Managing the expectations of communities in
flood-prone areas to expect and cope with flood
events.
NZ Transport Agency, Climate Change Effects on the Land Transport Network, Volume
Two: Approach to Risk Management, 2009
NCHRP 20-83(5)
Climate Change and the
Highway System: Impacts and
Adaptation Approaches
Illustrative Regions of the United States for Climate Adaptation Analysis
Illustrative Climate Adaptation Analysis
Illustrative Climate Adaptation Analysis
Identify trigger
levels
Assess feasibility and cost
effectiveness of adaptation strategies
Change design standards
Change operating strategies
Change maintenance practices
Change construction practices
Etc.
Identify affected
highway agency
functions
Network
Functions
Conduct risk
appraisal of
vulnerabilities and
environmental
changes
Asset A
Identify
vulnerabilities of
highway system to
these changing
conditions
Asset X
Identify impact of
these changes on
local environmental
conditions
Adaptation
Planning
Framework
Asset C
Identify predominant
climate change
trends and factors
for region
Asset B
Identify critical assets
in the network