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Forum: Special Committee Issue: Preliminary preparatory meeting for next COP23 Student Officer: Kosta Lovato Position: Mentor Chair Introduction The earth has been warming up substantially during the latter parts of the 19th century and to the age which we live in today. Ever since the industrial revolution started in Britain the world’s climate has started to rise at an unprecedented rate. Right now the foreseeable temperature of the Earth in 2020 is about 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit more than the 57.2 degrees right now. For this the UN created the UNFCCC, they also created the COP which has had 20 meetings since the first in Germany in 1995. The most recent conferences have been the Paris conference COP 21 and the Marrakesh conference COP 22. The Paris conference had 197 countries present, it set a clear blueprint for the future of the Earth's climate. Some major plans include having the Earth's heat increase by only 1.5 degrees, over 120 countries have stated that they will curb their emissions. Another major point of the COP 21 conference was the “Long-term global goal for net zero emissions” plan which was ratified by over 120 countries. The COP 21 conference has been one of the most successful. With 122 countries ratifying the Paris agreement. While this is very satisfying the fact that so many countries ratified the agreement. Yet some of the biggest Co2 emitting countries such as the Russian Federation, Iran and 76 other countries have not yet ratified the agreement. This is a very big problem for the UNFCCC because it will become a much larger toll for the other countries to try to uphold the agreement. Also to be reminded some countries have ratified the COP 21 agreement yet have not upheld the 1997 Kyoto agreement which wants countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. These countries include the U.S. which didn’t ratify the agreement, Canada, Japan and the Russian federation which ratified the first round and then did not ratify the second round which hence gave them no binding targets. Definition of Key Terms Term 1 UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, it was first established in 1997 during the Kyoto agreements in Japan. Term 2 COP: Conference of the Parties, it works with the UNFCCC Term 3 UN: The United Nations, first established in 1946, it has created many sub-organizations to fight climate change and the destruction of its ecology. Term 4 Climate Change: This is when the earth’s temperature changes, nowadays the earth’s temperature changes due to human activity. Term 5 Ratification: The approval from the legislative branch of any country, which is required to validate government agreements and terms which have been set with other countries such as the Paris Agreements. Term 6 Co2: Carbon Dioxide: It is a colourless, odourless gas produced by burning carbon and organic compounds, factories produce a large amount of it, hence many vow to cut down. It is used by plants for photosynthesis. Carbon dioxide is a gas which is a prime factor in the loss of the Ozone Layer. Term 7 Ozone Layer: The ozone layer/ shield is a region of Earth's stratosphere which covers it and then absorbs most of the Sun's ultraviolet (UV) radiation. It has been destroyed by the Earth’s carbon dioxide emissions. There is a hole over antarctica, causing melting. Background Information The UN’s fight against climate change has only been a very recent one. The first UN organisation is the UNFCCC which was first drafted in 1992 and is now ratified by over 50 countries. Then the United Nations created the COP which is a governing body of an international convention, it has worked with the UNFCCC and the Kyoto protocol. The organisation has worked hard to create some basic plans to help the earth’s climate. The inclusion of a collaboration with the COP has been very helpful with 22 conferences. The COP 21 conference in Paris has been the most successful one yet with 118 countries having ratified the agreements. In 2016 there have been 2 climate change conferences including the COP 22 and the Climate Change Conference 2016. These two conferences have been working together to raise awareness for the cause against climate change. They are also two of the biggest conferences, both were held in France this year and they have both yielded promising results. The most notable difference in between the two is that the UNFCCC is funded by the UN only and that the ICCC is funded by organisations such as Air France and other regional organisations where the conference is held. The other difference is that the ICCC will let anyone attend the conference meaning that it is a conference not only for diplomats but for the general public. The world’s climate has risen by 0.85 degrees since 1880. This seems like little, yet when National Geographic estimated the way that the crops would be affected in 2050 there are some results which will change the world’s crop producers. The production of Corn will go down by over 25%, and other grains and crops will go down by at least 2%. This will cause many SubSaharan and Central African economies to go down. These regions are key in the production of crops. While the total of the production for many countries will go down, there are many countries which have to evolve their crops. Indonesia will have to stop cultivating crops such as corn which will drop by an estimated 25%, yet they will be able to export more rice because the conditions will become better. Australia, on the other hand, will have to spare more land, there will still be the possibility to cultivate wheat and grains yet droughts will mean that Australia will have to use a more rationalised use of water. Many scientists believe that the use of GMOs will help stop the decrease of production. Countries in Asia will experience a shortage of crops because there will be less agradable land, seeing that there are rising populations in China and India, the greatest crop producers in Asia. While climate change is the heating of the Earth’s temperature it will change many landscapes. The Amazon forest will become more of a desert and the Saharan Desert which covers over 45% of Africa will become greener. This will significantly change the lives of countless in the northern section of Africa. Yet the fact that the Amazon river will become more of a desert in the future, this is a big factor for the Earth, the Amazon produces more than 42% of the world’s oxygen. Other changes include the state of California to have a state of drought in over 98.4% of all it’s land, this is a big problem for the American society which eats fresh fruits and vegetables seeing that the state of California produces a vast majority of the American fruits and vegetables. COP21 Decisions The Paris Agreements was the final product of the COP 21 conference. One of the main points was the want to lower the world’s temperature by 2 percent. This goal is very hard to acheive, it has been also undertaken by the MOU Under 2. Another main point is to have a universal contract which would be binding. This agreement will also include the Kyoto Protocol. The next agreement is to help LEDC’s, the Paris Agreements includes to donate over 100 billion by 2020 to developing countries in order to create a more ecological economy. The next point is to have countries publish their greenhouse gas emissions, this will be undertaken every 5 years starting to 2023. The most extravagant goal which was set in the Paris Agreements is to have a Carbon Neutral world after 2050 but before 2100, this means a commitment to limiting the amount of greenhouse gases emitted by human activity to the levels that trees, soil and oceans can absorb naturally. COP22 Decisions The main goal of COP 22 was to implement the rules set up by the COP 21 Paris Agreements and then have most of the COP framework countries to ratify it. In Marrakech the fight against Climate Change has risen in strength, many countries have decided on plans to continue developing their cities yet they will develop in a way which reduces the carbon footprint. These measures will be implemented by using ideas such as: have a roof garden, having a low carbon economy and of course the implementation of electric cars. The discussions on these items has been quite successful. Although many of these ideas have been seen as important to reduce the temperature rise there has been some pessimistic remarks on how this will be achieved with the election turnouts in the USA. COP 22 also has been a conference where the establishment that everyone has a role to play has been heavily supported. At COP 22 many new coalitions have been formed, the Under2 MOU is a global coalition where regions and cities come together and have been setting targets to reduce the rise in temperature in 2050 to 2 percent. This organization has over 1 billion people which constitute it over the 33 countries, over a seventh of the world’s population, and over $25 trillion dollar which is a third of the world’s economy. Other organizations have been present with the World resources Institute creating an organization called the NDC. It will help provide technology and analysis in order to help halt the world’s drastic temperature increase. Major Countries and Organizations Involved The United States of America The USA are the second largest Co2 emitting country behind China. Their fight against Co2 emissions started in the 1980’s when they started to cut down on their emissions, yet their role in the world’s economy has forced them to continue their industrialisation. The USA has put a lot of money for the funding of GMO’s so that their crops in the midwest may continue to be a No1 food income. Climate change will also cut parts of its food sectors by 5%. China China is the largest Co2 emitting country, they are one of the countries which will most benefit from the ICCC and the COP talks. The major Chinese cities are located on the coast, and Shanghai has been the subject to high sea levels, the Chinese government has already reclaimed land in order for the Chinese economic district to be moved farther inland. Their emission of Co2 is causing, glaciers to melt, the lakes on the glaciers to overflow which has destroyed infrastructure near the Himalayas. Rising sea levels are also a problem, and smog is the number one factor which is causing severe illness to people who are not wearing masks. Much of china’s biodiversity will be lost and many coastal regions are under protection due to rising sea levels. India India is another country which creates the third most Co2. It is also one of the biggest crop producers and the climate change will affect its crops in its regions by a loss of 5%. The Indian economy relies heavily on its crops, the weather will also fluctuate in some regions causing more natural disasters. Timeline of Events Date What Happened 1987 MONTREAL —The Canadian Government adopts a protocol to save the receding Ozone layer, this is the first major attempt to help the world’s climate. 1988 NEW YORK — The creation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change this panel works with the UN’s World Meteorological Organization the Environmental Program, these programs survey the world’s climate and how to help it. 1990 LONDON — The IPCC gives its first detailed report on the Earth’s climate, which includes the idea that much of it is due to man made activity. 1992 RIO DE JANEIRO — World leaders sign the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the first agreement to limiting greenhouse gas emissions. However, it sets no binding emissions targets, hence there were plans to make one with binding targets with two terms. 1997 KYOTO, Japan — The Kyoto Protocol is adopted, setting binding emissions targets for MEDC’s. The United States doesn't join the treaty because it doesn't include big developing countries such as China and India. Another reason was that the US thought that it would harm their economy. 2004 MOSCOW — Russia's ratify the Kyoto Protocol. The move means countries representing more than 55 percent of global emissions support the treaty, a condition for it to take effect.THey sadly only ratified the first part and not the second which countries such as Japan and Canada also didn’t sign due to their economies. 2007 OSLO, Norway — Former U.S. vice president and climate campaigner Al Gore and the IPCC win Nobel Peace Prize for their attempts to raise awareness among the world’s communities. 2009 COPENHAGEN, Denmark — The first attempt to craft a global emissions treaty to replace Kyoto, which is set to expire in 2012, falls apart amid disputes between rich and poor countries over who should do what, due to the fact that many poor countries need their big Co2 emitting economies so that they may become MEDC’s, this treaty once again failed to convey what countries such as India or China should do. 2011 DURBAN, South Africa — U.N. climate talks produce a universal agreement on climate change in 2015 that would take effect five years later and apply to all of them. 2013 2013: STOCKHOLM — The IPCC confirm that human activity is the main reason that the world’s temperature is rising. 2015 PARIS — More than 190 governments meet in the French capital to finish what's envisioned as a landmark deal to rein in greenhouse gas emissions after 2020. 2016 COP 22 in Marrakech is put in motion with a goal to promote the plan set during the Paris Agreements Possible Solutions: Although COP 22 was very successful in having the Paris Agreements upheld and having other organizations help it has been critiqued for its many unanswered questions. These questions are most likely going to be discussed at the COP 23 conference in Fiji and the ICCC 2017. The problems which have now been brought up include: 1. How will the world’s economy be stable and yet not rely so heavily on the natural resources which we use? This is the main problem because without the stop of a carbon creating economy the world’s temperature increase will only continue because the world’s economy is increasing. 2. How will we take out all the Co2 which is held in our atmosphere. With the number rising there are strong probabilities that the Ozone layer will have more gaps. 3. How will the world react and respond to the severe weather changes, these changes will displace the world’s population and change the way our maps look. These are the main points which need to be addressed in this special committee for the preparation of COP 23. Appendices: Here are some useful links: http://newsroom.unfccc.int This website will give you insight to the UNFCCC and how they work together with COP, an interesting tab is the “Paris Agreements Tab”. http://www.cop22-morocco.com This is the website for the most recent COP conference, it will provide valuable information on the COP agreements in the past and in Marrakech. http://www.un.org/climatechange/ The UN’s official page for Climate Change, this is the biggest website for Climate Change which holds everything from archives to real time counts of countries ratifying the Paris Agreements. Other websites include: www.greenpeace.com www.cop21.com https://www.epa.gov/climatechange Bibliography "21 Amazing Facts About Global Warming And Climate Change." Tech Times. Tech Times, 27 May 2015. Web. 30 Dec. 2016. "Climate Change - United Nations Sustainable Development." United Nations. United Nations, n.d. Web. 30 Dec. 2016. "Climate Change Impacts on China's Environment: Biophysical Impacts." Wilson Center. Wilson Center, 28 Sept. 2011. Web. 30 Dec. 2016. "Climate Change." US NEWS. US NEWS, n.d. Web. 30 Dec. 2016. "Climate Impacts on Agriculture and Food Supply." EPA. Environmental Protection Agency, 06 Oct. 2016. Web. 30 Dec. 2016. "COP22: Key Outcomes Agreed at the UN Climate Talks in Marrakech." Carbon Brief. COP 22, 21 Nov. 2016. Web. 30 Dec. 2016. Forsythe, Michael. "China Curbs Plans for More Coal-Fired Power Plants." The New York Times. The New York Times, 25 Apr. 2016. Web. 30 Dec. 2016. International Conference on Climate Change 2017. "International Conference on Climate Change 2017." International Conference on Climate Change 2017. International Conference on Climate Change 2017, n.d. Web. 30 Dec. 2016. It, How To Live with, More On Climate Change, and Map: Evan Applegate. Sources: UN Food And Agriculture Organization; Ricky Robertson, IFPRI. "5 Ways Climate Change Will Affect You: Crop Changes." 5 Ways Climate Change Will Affect You: Crop Changes | National Geographic. National Geographic, n.d. Web. 30 Dec. 2016. "Our Earth in 2050." Our Earth in 2050. N.p., n.d. Web. 30 Dec. 2016. Palmer, Brian. "What Would We Eat If It Weren’t for California?" Slate Magazine. Slate Magazine, 10 July 2013. Web. 30 Dec. 2016. "Renewable & Non-Renewable Energy Sources." Conserve Energy Future. Conserve Energy Future, n.d. Web. 30 Dec. 2016. Wike, Richard. "What the World Thinks about Climate Change in 7 Charts." Pew Research Center. N.p., 18 Apr. 2016. Web. 30 Dec. 2016. "With Thanks to Our Sponsors." COP 21 Paris France Sustainable Innovation Forum 2015 Working with UNEP. COP 21, n.d. Web. 30 Dec. 2016.