Download Preliminary preparatory meeting for next COP 23

Forum:
Special Committee
Issue:
Preliminary preparatory meeting for next COP23
Student Officer: Kosta Lovato
Position:
Mentor Chair
Introduction
The earth has been warming up substantially during the latter parts of the 19th century
and to the age which we live in today. Ever since the industrial revolution started in Britain the
world’s climate has started to rise at an unprecedented rate. Right now the foreseeable
temperature of the Earth in 2020 is about 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit more than the 57.2 degrees
right now. For this the UN created the UNFCCC, they also created the COP which has had 20
meetings since the first in Germany in 1995. The most recent conferences have been the Paris
conference COP 21 and the Marrakesh conference COP 22. The Paris conference had 197
countries present, it set a clear blueprint for the future of the Earth's climate. Some major plans
include having the Earth's heat increase by only 1.5 degrees, over 120 countries have stated
that they will curb their emissions. Another major point of the COP 21 conference was the
“Long-term global goal for net zero emissions” plan which was ratified by over 120 countries.
The COP 21 conference has been one of the most successful. With 122 countries ratifying
the Paris agreement. While this is very satisfying the fact that so many countries ratified the
agreement. Yet some of the biggest Co2 emitting countries such as the Russian Federation,
Iran and 76 other countries have not yet ratified the agreement. This is a very big problem for
the UNFCCC because it will become a much larger toll for the other countries to try to uphold
the agreement. Also to be reminded some countries have ratified the COP 21 agreement yet
have not upheld the 1997 Kyoto agreement which wants countries to reduce their greenhouse
gas emissions. These countries include the U.S. which didn’t ratify the agreement, Canada,
Japan and the Russian federation which ratified the first round and then did not ratify the second
round which hence gave them no binding targets.
Definition of Key Terms
Term 1
UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, it was first established in
1997 during the Kyoto agreements in Japan.
Term 2
COP: Conference of the Parties, it works with the UNFCCC
Term 3
UN: The United Nations, first established in 1946, it has created many sub-organizations to fight
climate change and the destruction of its ecology.
Term 4
Climate Change: This is when the earth’s temperature changes, nowadays the earth’s
temperature changes due to human activity.
Term 5
Ratification: The approval from the legislative branch of any country, which is required to
validate government agreements and terms which have been set with other countries such as
the Paris Agreements.
Term 6
Co2: Carbon Dioxide: It is a colourless, odourless gas produced by burning carbon and organic
compounds, factories produce a large amount of it, hence many vow to cut down. It is used by
plants for photosynthesis. Carbon dioxide is a gas which is a prime factor in the loss of the
Ozone Layer.
Term 7
Ozone Layer: The ozone layer/ shield is a region of Earth's stratosphere which covers it
and then absorbs most of the Sun's ultraviolet (UV) radiation. It has been destroyed by
the Earth’s carbon dioxide emissions. There is a hole over antarctica, causing melting.
Background Information
The UN’s fight against climate change has only been a very recent one. The first UN
organisation is the UNFCCC which was first drafted in 1992 and is now ratified by over 50
countries. Then the United Nations created the COP which is a governing body of an
international convention, it has worked with the UNFCCC and the Kyoto protocol. The
organisation has worked hard to create some basic plans to help the earth’s climate. The
inclusion of a collaboration with the COP has been very helpful with 22 conferences. The COP
21 conference in Paris has been the most successful one yet with 118 countries having ratified
the agreements.
In 2016 there have been 2 climate change conferences including the COP 22 and the Climate
Change Conference 2016. These two conferences have been working together to raise
awareness for the cause against climate change. They are also two of the biggest conferences,
both were held in France this year and they have both yielded promising results. The most
notable difference in between the two is that the UNFCCC is funded by the UN only and that the
ICCC is funded by organisations such as Air France and other regional organisations where the
conference is held. The other difference is that the ICCC will let anyone attend the conference
meaning that it is a conference not only for diplomats but for the general public.
The world’s climate has risen by 0.85 degrees since 1880. This seems like little, yet
when National Geographic estimated the way that the crops would be affected in 2050 there are
some results which will change the world’s crop producers. The production of Corn will go down
by over 25%, and other grains and crops will go down by at least 2%. This will cause many SubSaharan and Central African economies to go down. These regions are key in the production of
crops. While the total of the production for many countries will go down, there are many
countries which have to evolve their crops. Indonesia will have to stop cultivating crops such as
corn which will drop by an estimated 25%, yet they will be able to export more rice because the
conditions will become better. Australia, on the other hand, will have to spare more land, there
will still be the possibility to cultivate wheat and grains yet droughts will mean that Australia will
have to use a more rationalised use of water. Many scientists believe that the use of GMOs will
help stop the decrease of production. Countries in Asia will experience a shortage of crops
because there will be less agradable land, seeing that there are rising populations in China and
India, the greatest crop producers in Asia.
While climate change is the heating of the Earth’s temperature it will change many
landscapes. The Amazon forest will become more of a desert and the Saharan Desert which
covers over 45% of Africa will become greener. This will significantly change the lives of
countless in the northern section of Africa. Yet the fact that the Amazon river will become more
of a desert in the future, this is a big factor for the Earth, the Amazon produces more than 42%
of the world’s oxygen. Other changes include the state of California to have a state of drought in
over 98.4% of all it’s land, this is a big problem for the American society which eats fresh fruits
and vegetables seeing that the state of California produces a vast majority of the American fruits
and vegetables.
COP21 Decisions
The Paris Agreements was the final product of the COP 21 conference. One of
the main points was the want to lower the world’s temperature by 2 percent. This goal is very
hard to acheive, it has been also undertaken by the MOU Under 2. Another main point is to
have a universal contract which would be binding. This agreement will also include the Kyoto
Protocol. The next agreement is to help LEDC’s, the Paris Agreements includes to donate over
100 billion by 2020 to developing countries in order to create a more ecological economy. The
next point is to have countries publish their greenhouse gas emissions, this will be undertaken
every 5 years starting to 2023. The most extravagant goal which was set in the Paris
Agreements is to have a Carbon Neutral world after 2050 but before 2100, this means a
commitment to limiting the amount of greenhouse gases emitted by human activity to the levels
that trees, soil and oceans can absorb naturally.
COP22 Decisions
The main goal of COP 22 was to implement the rules set up by the COP 21 Paris
Agreements and then have most of the COP framework countries to ratify it. In
Marrakech the fight against Climate Change has risen in strength, many countries have
decided on plans to continue developing their cities yet they will develop in a way which
reduces the carbon footprint. These measures will be implemented by using ideas such
as: have a roof garden, having a low carbon economy and of course the implementation
of electric cars. The discussions on these items has been quite successful. Although
many of these ideas have been seen as important to reduce the temperature rise there
has been some pessimistic remarks on how this will be achieved with the election
turnouts in the USA.
COP 22 also has been a conference where the establishment that everyone has
a role to play has been heavily supported. At COP 22 many new coalitions have been
formed, the Under2 MOU is a global coalition where regions and cities come together
and have been setting targets to reduce the rise in temperature in 2050 to 2 percent.
This organization has over 1 billion people which constitute it over the 33 countries, over
a seventh of the world’s population, and over $25 trillion dollar which is a third of the
world’s economy. Other organizations have been present with the World resources
Institute creating an organization called the NDC. It will help provide technology and
analysis in order to help halt the world’s drastic temperature increase.
Major Countries and Organizations Involved
The United States of America
The USA are the second largest Co2 emitting country behind China. Their fight against
Co2 emissions started in the 1980’s when they started to cut down on their emissions, yet their
role in the world’s economy has forced them to continue their industrialisation. The USA has put
a lot of money for the funding of GMO’s so that their crops in the midwest may continue to be a
No1 food income. Climate change will also cut parts of its food sectors by 5%.
China
China is the largest Co2 emitting country, they are one of the countries which will most
benefit from the ICCC and the COP talks. The major Chinese cities are located on the coast,
and Shanghai has been the subject to high sea levels, the Chinese government has already
reclaimed land in order for the Chinese economic district to be moved farther inland. Their
emission of Co2 is causing, glaciers to melt, the lakes on the glaciers to overflow which has
destroyed infrastructure near the Himalayas. Rising sea levels are also a problem, and smog is
the number one factor which is causing severe illness to people who are not wearing masks.
Much of china’s biodiversity will be lost and many coastal regions are under protection due to
rising sea levels.
India
India is another country which creates the third most Co2. It is also one of the biggest
crop producers and the climate change will affect its crops in its regions by a loss of 5%. The
Indian economy relies heavily on its crops, the weather will also fluctuate in some regions
causing more natural disasters.
Timeline of Events
Date
What Happened
1987
MONTREAL —The Canadian Government adopts a protocol to save the
receding Ozone layer, this is the first major attempt to help the world’s
climate.
1988
NEW YORK — The creation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change this panel works with the UN’s World Meteorological Organization
the Environmental Program, these programs survey the world’s climate and
how to help it.
1990
LONDON — The IPCC gives its first detailed report on the Earth’s climate,
which includes the idea that much of it is due to man made activity.
1992
RIO DE JANEIRO — World leaders sign the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change, the first agreement to limiting greenhouse
gas emissions. However, it sets no binding emissions targets, hence there
were plans to make one with binding targets with two terms.
1997
KYOTO, Japan — The Kyoto Protocol is adopted, setting binding emissions
targets for MEDC’s. The United States doesn't join the treaty because it
doesn't include big developing countries such as China and India. Another
reason was that the US thought that it would harm their economy.
2004
MOSCOW — Russia's ratify the Kyoto Protocol. The move means countries
representing more than 55 percent of global emissions support the treaty, a
condition for it to take effect.THey sadly only ratified the first part and not the
second which countries such as Japan and Canada also didn’t sign due to
their economies.
2007
OSLO, Norway — Former U.S. vice president and climate campaigner Al
Gore and the IPCC win Nobel Peace Prize for their attempts to raise
awareness among the world’s communities.
2009
COPENHAGEN, Denmark — The first attempt to craft a global emissions
treaty to replace Kyoto, which is set to expire in 2012, falls apart amid
disputes between rich and poor countries over who should do what, due to
the fact that many poor countries need their big Co2 emitting economies so
that they may become MEDC’s, this treaty once again failed to convey what
countries such as India or China should do.
2011
DURBAN, South Africa — U.N. climate talks produce a universal agreement
on climate change in 2015 that would take effect five years later and apply to
all of them.
2013
2013: STOCKHOLM — The IPCC confirm that human activity is the main
reason that the world’s temperature is rising.
2015
PARIS — More than 190 governments meet in the French capital to finish
what's envisioned as a landmark deal to rein in greenhouse gas emissions
after 2020.
2016
COP 22 in Marrakech is put in motion with a goal to promote the plan set
during the Paris Agreements
Possible Solutions:
Although COP 22 was very successful in having the Paris Agreements upheld and
having other organizations help it has been critiqued for its many unanswered questions. These
questions are most likely going to be discussed at the COP 23 conference in Fiji and the ICCC
2017. The problems which have now been brought up include:
1. How will the world’s economy be stable and yet not rely so heavily on the natural
resources which we use? This is the main problem because without the stop of a
carbon creating economy the world’s temperature increase will only continue
because the world’s economy is increasing.
2. How will we take out all the Co2 which is held in our atmosphere. With the
number rising there are strong probabilities that the Ozone layer will have more
gaps.
3. How will the world react and respond to the severe weather changes, these
changes will displace the world’s population and change the way our maps look.
These are the main points which need to be addressed in this special committee for the
preparation of COP 23.
Appendices:
Here are some useful links:
http://newsroom.unfccc.int
This website will give you insight to the UNFCCC and how they work together with COP, an
interesting tab is the “Paris Agreements Tab”.
http://www.cop22-morocco.com
This is the website for the most recent COP conference, it will provide valuable information on
the COP agreements in the past and in Marrakech.
http://www.un.org/climatechange/
The UN’s official page for Climate Change, this is the biggest website for Climate Change which
holds everything from archives to real time counts of countries ratifying the Paris Agreements.
Other websites include:
www.greenpeace.com
www.cop21.com
https://www.epa.gov/climatechange
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