Download Un Regime Road to Bali

The UN regime on the road to Bali
October 2007
Claire N Parker
Environmental Policy Consultant
Inspiring learning leadership
and change for sustainability
OUTLINE
• Context in which the post 2012
UNFCCC regime is being shaped
• Fundamentals of a new regime
• Developments within the UN
process
• Expectations for Bali?
Context in which the post 2012 UN
regime is being shaped
UNFCCC 1992
Kyoto Protocol 1997
emission reduction targets
expire 2012
Inspiring learning leadership
and change for sustainability
IPCC AR4 (2007)
Overall more confidence, more
consensus
‘global emissions of greenhouse gases
need to peak in the next 10 to 15 years
and then be reduced to… well below half
of levels in 2000 by mid-century, if the
climate is to be safely stabilised’
IPCC AR4
Impacts - generally negative
In particular:
• compound poverty
• endanger security
• impede nations’ ability to achieve
sustainable development
Stern Review (Oct 2006)
Costs of prevention < costs of
inaction
1 % of global GDP / year
5% of global GDP/year,
now and forever
20% if wider risks taken
into account
EU Council March 2007
Climate and Energy Strategy
2°C limit, 2020 (-20/30%) - 2050 (-60/80%)
Global and comprehensive global agreement
Energy efficiency => cut consumption by 20%
by 2020
20% renewables
10% biofuels in petrol and diesel
G 8 June 2007
• Process based results
– “consider seriously” global goal of min -50%
by 2050
– US: “major emitters” process to contribute to
UNFCCC process
– timetable for G.8: new global deal by 2009
– inadequate interaction with the +5 countries
(Brazil, China, India, Mexico, South Africa)
US ‘Major Economies’ process
Sept 2007
• US acknowledges climate change is a problem
• Wants long-term global goal for emission reductions
• Process to contribute to UNFCCC negotiations towards
consensus in 2009
• National strategies to reflect own energy resources, state
of development and economic needs
– Amounts to voluntary action (widely rejected…)
• Technology is the solution
Fundamentals of a new regime
• Reduce emissions to
stabilise climate &
limit change to a safe
level
• Adapt to (already
inevitable) climate
change
• Urgent
• Inclusive to ensure
– Effectiveness
– Fairness
• Based on solidarity
– Response to global
crisis
Per capita CO2 emissions
Top 25 « footprints »
(WRI/Pew Center; data for 2000)
Top 25 in
Population
Thailand
Bangladesh,
Nigeria,
Viet Nam,
Philippines,
Ethiopia,
Egypt,
Congo
Netherlands,
(Taiwan)
Top 25 in GDP
Canada,
USA, China, EU25,
Rep. Korea,
Russia, India, Japan,
Australia,
Germany, Brazil, UK,
S. Africa,
Italy, Mexico, France,
Spain,
Indonesia, Iran, Turkey
Poland,
Argentina
Ukraine,
Pakistan
Top 25 in
Emissions
Saudi Arabia
(excl. LUCF)
Outline of a package ideally guided by
‘shared vision’
• Integrate CC in sustainable development
– Mostly win/wins but also negative feedbacks
• Vulnerability and adaptation
– Assistance to most vulnerable countries
• Mitigation: verifiable targets, differentiated commitments
in common framework of accountability
– Cap& trade, policies, sectoral benchmarks, …
• Technology, finance and markets
The UN Process in a nutshell
• Coalitions among the 194 countries
– G77 + China
– European Union (+ candidates)
– JUSSCANNZ (Japan, US, Canada, Norway,
Australia, NZ)
– Umbrella group (JUSCANNZ + Russia)
– Environmental Integrity Group (Mexico,
Korea, Switzerland, Liechtenstein and
Monaco)
G 77 + China
•
•
•
•
•
•
AOSIS (40+ small island states)
OPEC/Saudi Arabia
Latin America & Caribbean (33)
African Group
LDC group
(Asian Group)
Environmental and business
NGOs, financial institutions, cities
etc.
Recent developments in UN process
• Further Commitments for Annex I
Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG)
only KP parties
• Dialogue on long-term cooperative
action under the Convention
all parties to UNFCCC
Vienna Climate Change Talks
Sept 2007
Analysis of existing and potential investment
and financial flows =>
‘the scale of the problem is clear from the IPCC,
the technology is available, and solutions are
financially affordable’
Yvo de Boer, Exec Sec UNFCCC
UN High Level Event on Climate Change
• Convened by Secretary-General on 24 Sept.
• “clear call for a breakthrough” at Bali COP
• need to generate action by all countries, while
pursuing their development goals, to limit
emissions of the gases that cause climate
change, to develop and deploy the practices and
technologies that hold the key to a climatefriendly future, and to adapt to the climate
changes that are inevitable.
Expectations for Bali: issues
important to developing countries
in Vienna, China called for ‘legally binding
instruments on adaptation, technology transfer
and financing to safeguard the climate change
process’
Transfer of technology
• Renewables, energy efficiency and
conservation, carbon capture and storage
• Major barriers: intellectual property rights
• Need for enabling environments
or to be seen as a response to a global crisis
(enlightened self-interest?)
Adaptation
• Industrialised countries have responsibility
• Bilateral and multilateral funding
– Insufficient- in order of $100-130mil/year
• Adaptation Fund from share of proceeds from
CDM
– CDM volume in pipeline to 2012 is $2.2 bn
– Assuming 80- 300mil CERs/yr at $24, there wd be
$80-300mil in adaptation fund by 2012
– Modalities for disbursement under discussion
Finance
• UNFCCC estimate: $200-210bn in 2030 to
return emissions to current levels, 46% in
developing countries
• New and additional resources needed
• Mainstreaming climate change in FDI and
ODA
• Carbon markets
– Tool of efficiency as well as source of $ via
levies
Possible contributions by developing
countries
• Avoiding deforestation, for which they
would be compensated
• Others might include:
– Sustainable development policies and
measures
– Intensity goals
– Sectoral benchmarks
The Bali “roadmap”
Convention (COP)
Convention Dialogue:
• Advancing development goals
• Addressing action on adaptation
• Realising full pot. of technology
• Realising full pot. of market-based opportunities
Bali Roadmap
Report to
4th Workshop
COP-13
Deforestation (SBSTA)
IPCC AR4
Technology Transfer (SBSTA)
Adaptation (SBSTA & SBI)
?
Kyoto Protocol (CMP)
AWG (Art. 3.9)
• Ambition/objective
• “principles”
• Platform & process
• Timeline
• Recognition of action
• Deforestation
• Technology
• Adaptation
• Finance & investment
• Russian Proposal?
4th Session
• Commitments AI KP
Russian Proposal
• Russian Proposal?
Review of the Kyoto Protocol
• Incentives for action
• Bunker fuels
•?
May
August
December
International climate negotiations timeline
SOURCE: EUROPEAN
COMMISSION
2007
FIN
GER
COP 12
PORT
2008
SLO
2009
FRA
COP 13
Indonesia
CZ
2010
SWE
COP 14,
Poland
ESP
COP 15,
Denmark
Science 4th AR IPCC
Follow-Up
Convention Dialogue
Convention Dialogue
New targets for industrialised countries under the
Kyoto Protocol (Art 3.9)
Review of Kyoto Protocol
(Art 9)
Deal on New
International
Framework
Follow-Up
Review
G20 Gleneagles Plan of Action
G8 GER
G8 JAP
G8 ITA
BEL
COP16, Lati
America
Thank you
Claire N Parker
Environmental Policy Consultant
[email protected]
Extra slides that may be
useful in the discussion
Effectiveness, fairness and potential
(Data for 2000, 6 KP gases - except 1950-2000)
Source: WRI/CAIT < www.cait.wri.org>
% World
emissions
Tons per cap
(tCO2e)
1950-2000 cumulative
CO2 - % world + T/cap
Intensity
T/B$GDP
Excl
LUCF
Excl
LUCF
Energy
Excl
LUCF
Incl
LUCF
Incl
LUCF
Energy
Plus LUC
USA
20.4
24.3
0.72
EU 25
14.1
10.5
0.46
Russian Fed.
5.7
13.1
1.84
Japan
4.0
10.7
0.40
Annex I
(KP)
51.5
(29)
41.3
(24)
14.1
13.8
71.6%
458 T/cap
51.5%
459 T/cap
0.64
Non-Annex I
47.2
57.6
3.3
5.0
26.4%
42 T/cap
46.7%
105 T/cap
0.90
China
14.7
11.9
3.9
1.00
India
5.6
4.5
1.9
0.77
Brazil
2.5
5.4
4.9
12.8
0.67
Indonesia
1.5
7.4
2.4
14.9
0.81
EU-15 and EU-25 emissions and projections
source: EC