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Global Climate Change
Image: dreamatico.com
The source of the information
presented here is from
peer reviewed scientific
research
How scientific research is conducted
• Research scientists identify the question to be answered,
they conduct a literature search on similar research to
establish what is already known. They collect data,
design and conduct experiments depending on the type
of research, gather data analyzes data using statistics,
and draws conclusions. They will then prepare a paper
and submits it to a scientific journal for publication.
• The journal will send out the manuscript to 3 other
scientists with similar research interests to review the
work. They will look at the methods of collecting data,
review of the statistical analysis of the data and
conclusions. If the work is shoddy it is rejected.
•
Changing our atmosphere
Source goodwp-com
We became aware of climate change in late 19th century when
the natural greenhouse effect was first identified. Scientists
began to warn that adding human emissions of greenhouse gases
to our atmosphere could change earth’s climates.
Past climate changes
Melankovich cycle: The cause of earth’s (glacial) ice ages and
interglacial (warm eras). Image source the resilient earth.com
The Greenhouse Effect
Image: www.realscience.org.uk
MICHAEL MANN- DIRECTOR
the Earth System Science Center
at Pennsylvania State University
Dr. Mann analyzed C02 and temp data, was
one of the first to call attention to warming..
The “hockey stick” graph shows the increase in temperature follows the increase in C02
Average surface temperature change
(°C)
In addition to Dr. Mann’s work, four climate centers,
confirmed the warming.
Meehl et al., Journal of Climate (2004)
Ice core Data C02 and temp over centuries .
403ppm
MAY 2015
350ppm
(graph NASA)
5/9/2015- 403ppmC02- Highest level in 15 million years
Source James Hanson head of NASA”S Goddard Space Flight center and a
major Climate Research Center.
350ppm was long warned as the tipping point of no return on climate
change 400ppm was reached January 2014. We have reached a level
of C02 in the atmosphere never before experienced by this planet. ( Ice
core data is a store of C02 levels that go back millions of years )
CO2 release per person
black = largest release
Map Wikipedia
Oceans
Credit: iStockphoto/Brett Hillyard)
.
Ocean acidification C02 +water = carbonic acid
Credit:
Christopher
Krembs, NOAA,
US Department
of Commerce)
An estimated 30–40% of the carbon dioxide released by humans into the
atmosphere dissolves into oceans, rivers and lakes.
Once dissolved in seawater, CO2 reacts with water, H2O, to form carbonic acid,
CO2 + H2O ↔ H2CO3.
Image source: www.johnenglander.net
Image pmel.noaa.gov
Ph has dropped by 30% in the oceans. Acidic water will dissolve
the shells of ocean creatures “This is scary what we are dealing
with right now very scary“-NOAA Director of Fisheries, Seattle
(seminar presented at Hatfield Marine Center 2009
Warming in the ArcticTemp anomalies 10 year average 2000-2009
The Arctic is the area with greatest temp increase
Image Source: Earth Observatory - NASA Goddard Space Agency
The Arctic ice loss.
2014 the warmest year on record.
.
Lonnie Thompson
Director of Byrd
Polar Research Center NASA
“Virtually all of us are now
convinced that global warming
poses a clear and present
danger to our well being and to
.
our civilization.
The red line marks former
Boundary of the Arctic ice cap
Image National snow and ice Data center
The warming we have experienced so far is already bringing huge losses of Arctic ice
Map-Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)
Ice loss in Arctic = an area twice the size of France
Positive Feedbacks
Ice loss leaves dark surfaces to absorbs heat
Image credit NASA
Hanson - Once the ice cap melt begins it will be VERY
difficult to stop. Hanson’s Book “Storms of my grandchildren” NASA
Losing Half A Trillion Tons Of Ice A Year
plus there has been few measures taken to even slow the warming
Greenland Ice Loss
Image courtesy of Konrad Steffen and Russell Huff, CIRES.
2011 NASA- satellite data -2011 Ice loss tied with the greatest since
measurement began “these ice sheets are overtaking ice loss from
Earth’s mountain glaciers and ice caps to become the dominant contributor
to global sea level rise, much sooner than model forecasts have predicted.
Pink = area of ice melt in Greenland. Land based ice melt will raise sea level
NASA - Earth is loosing a half trillion tons of ice/yr
Greenland ice melt
photo: e-world.com
Hanson - Once the ice cap melt begins it will be VERY
difficult to stop. Hanson’s Book “Storms of my Grandchildren”i
The Methane Bomb
Of most concern for climate change, is the release of methane. It
has a shorter life span in the atmosphere but it is 25 times better
at trapping heat than C02. Researchers warned that gigatons of
methane are stored in the frozen soils of the Arctic and also as
caltrates (icy crystals that trap Methane) on the ocean floors. If
we allow warming to go too far it too will be released. Congress
failed to act and currently methane release has been measured in
many areas.
molecules of C02 and Methane
Carbon dioxide C02
(source chemistry.com)
Methane CO4
Arctic Tundra fires
Tundra fire
Tundra fires now burn across Arctic region.
Photo Research.gov
Leading experts at NOAA, the National Snow and Ice Data
(see “NSIDC/NOAA reports): Thawing permafrost feedback will turn
The Arctic from a carbon sink to a source in the 2020s, There are
huge amounts of carbon stored in tundra soils and fears that it
will be released with warming is being confirmed. How much,
how quickly is being researched.
Tundra
Tundra - orange
Map: www.keywordpicture.com
Biomes of the world
Source photobucket
.
Tundra melt, creates
lakes where once was
land covered with low
shrubs and bushes.
Bubbling out of those
lakes is methane.
More arctic melt, East Siberian Sea
Image: skeptical science.com
Methane release from East Arctic Sea Floor
Russian Researchers Natalia Shakhova and Igor
Semilitov. The East Siberia Sea is melting and now
venting 1 million tons of methane per year. Methane is
25-30X more efficient at trapping heat than C02
Melting Glaciers
Argentina - Patagonia
Switzerland
1911
1928
2005
2004
Upsala Glacier
Upsala Glacier: Argentina Image: Greenpeace
Photo: Swiss info
Morteratsch Glacier
La Paz, Bolivia- snow melt supplies their water
supply
Photo source: thezookeepershome
Snow cap melt
Glacier National Park
photo: www.huffingtonpost.com:
The Glaciers gone…. Melted away
Low elevation Pacific islands in danger from rising seas
Ice melt raises sea levels
Melt of glaciers and other ice melt world wide is expected to raise sea levels
Sea level rise drowning low elevation islands
Photo by: all-that-is-interesting.com
Maldives – low pacific islands -- Male, (shown here)
is the capitol These islands are threatened by rising seas.
El Nino/La Nina cycles usually occur on 6year cycles and
affects weather patterns
La Niña conditions:
Warm water is farther
west than normal.
Image: Wikipedia
Image source: NOAA
Climate change is predicted to bring
bring more frequent El Ninos
El nino/La Nina impacts on weather
Figures courtesy of J. Wallace, University of Washington
Arctic oscillation flips from + to – and drives major weather patterns.
Climate change will increase
extreme weather events
• “It has long been known that as average
temperatures increase, extreme heat
events would become much more
common. Global warming is tilting the
odds so far in favor of certain types of
extreme weather events that the standard
caveat that global warming cannot be
blamed as the sole cause of individual
extreme weather events is no longer
accurate. James Hanson testimony
before congress. 1988
Typhoon Haiyan strongest ever recorded
Photo wikipedia
Pacific –typhoons
Atlantic- hurricanes.
Same type of storm.
Photo: ABC.net.au
SE Asia region, hardest
hit was the Phillipines.
Category 5
Strongest rating for
Hurricanes/typhoons
Climate change from a farmers perspective
Image Peoriapublicradio.org
Weather fluctuations such as floods, droughts, and heat-waves
all have detrimental effects on crops and lower food production.
World population growth
More people = more need for energy = More CO2
Another billion people will be added by 2050
PUBLIC ATTITUDES
Gallop poll 2010
Al Gore inconvenient truth
63%
2015
•
.
Changes in attitudes to climate change from 1989 - 2015 [
Gallup Polls ] found that 42 per cent of Americans think the
media exaggerates the seriousness of climate change.
Ocean acidity
The other C02 problem
Ocean waters absorb C02
C02+H20= carbonic acid
Ocean Acidity from C02 harms shelled ocean organisms
Coccolithophores
photo source pin interest
copepods
Photo Shannon Obrien
Pteropod Credit:
Russ Hopcroft,
UAF/NOAA
Public views on climate change
• A common comment from the public is “The climate
changes all the time”.
•There are indeed many cyclic influences on weather
patterns but none can permanently change the
climate as the massive changes in the atmosphere
that is now occurring from the addition of tons of C02
that traps and holds heat.
•The next two slides looks at two common cyclic
phenomena that bring temporary changes in weather
patterns.
Little Ice Age:
iStockphoto/Trevor Hunt)
The last major climate
change
1650 – 1850
• Temps dropped by 1°C
• World population was
300 million, today 7 billion
• The little ice age brought social disruption –crop failure,
famine, riots, bark-bread, witch hunts, and immigration to US
• Research has found the little ice age was caused by massive
volcanic eruptions that blasted particles into the atmosphere
and lingered in the air, reflecting heat, and lasted for 2 centuries
Rotation of earth around the sun, the cause
of ice ages and warm eras.
Source: Doug L. Hoffman’s blog
Ice ages/warm eras -these eras lasted
for a hundred thousand years
Graph:www.investigativemagazine.co.nz
Earth currently is slowly emerging from the last glacial (ice)
age. Ice covers the N and S poles, Snow covered
mountains are also remnants of the last ice (glacial) age
Scientists statement on the
status of climate change
In 2014 enough C02 has been added to bring 2°C increase.
Without serious effort to control C02, temps will exceed 2
degrees. That doesn’t sound like much but the massive amount
of heat to raise temps WILL bring about changes that will be
detrimental to our society.
IPCC Durban S Africa 2011 International climate meeting:.
Quote:
“We will not see real progress on C02 reduction until we get the
G20 nations (comprising ~80% of worldwide emissions) to
seriously commit to emissions reductions. If G20 stalls until
2040 there will be 4 degrees of warming.”( quote from IPCC
International panel on climate change) 4 degrees would bring
many and mostly detrimental changes.
The future depends on the choices we make now.