Download 20141023 - FIDIC 2014 - Plenary 10 - FIDICRio29.9

GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN OUR TIMES:
A capital question at present and facing the future
By Ramón TAMAMES
International Member of the Club of Rome
Jean Monnet Chairholder, European Union
Spanish Royal Academy of Moral and Political Sciences
So many times, so many people believe that current affairs is the most
important thing in life which means they accept the wrong idea that
the middle and long term questions can wait for a long time, supposing
they will be able to find solutions later, without any previous implementation.
But fortunately, science helps us today to appreciate that many foreseeable events or phenomena have to be taken into account in due
time, if we really do not want to get into serious trouble, with no more
solutions.
That is the question I am bringing here today: global warming and
climate change are working silently, tirelessly, noiselessly and unnoticed by most people, attacking the main principles of the normal performance of the biosphere, with a serious disrupture of the narrow
stratum of life that covers and surrounds the unique blue planet where
we live.
Global warming has been studied since the 19th century, when Prof.
Svante Arrhenius appreciated that in the atmosphere of the Earth there
was a growing amount of what we now call greenhouse effects gases
(GEG), namely CO2. And afterwards, almost a century later, Prof. Wallace Broecker, published his paper “Climate change: Are we on the way
to a growing global warming?” (1975). A survey that was the beginning
of long series of new research everywhere; until the moment in which
the United Nations (UN) called for the Earth Summit (Río-92). Where
and when the Framework Agreement on Climate Change (FACC) was
signed, to create a new international scheme so that the perverse
trends of global warming could be put under human control.
To make the story brief, we can say that after the FACC of 1992, and
through very hard bargaining, the so called Kyoto Protocol was settled
(1997), so that a new mechanism has been effectively in performance
since 2005. To cut the GEG emissions, in the idea that the tragedy of
common goods –in this case the Earth, the atmosphere spoiled by everybody because of the lack of a real common control—, could be transformed into a system of joint administration of global goods, by the
means of a UN mechanism.
Unfortunately, even with the systematic evidence supplied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, dependent on the
World Meteorological Organization), there are still a great number of
people who do not believe we are facing a huge problem.
And because of other complex motivations, the biggest polluters in the
world, China and the United States, are not applying the Kyoto Protocol.
Which is making possible a bigger and bigger accumulation of GEG in
our atmosphere. So that the temperature of the Earth’s surface could
increase by two degrees Celsius over the situation existing before the
Industrial Revolution. Which is considered the highest level that can be
accepted in order not to move into a dramatic situation, with all kinds
of irreversible consequences that could prove to be very negative for
world life as we know it at present.
What are the consequences of global warming working permanently in
the direction of climate change? We can make the following brief summary:

Polar ice fusion, especially the glaciers of Greenland in the north,
and Antarctica in the south. With the result of creating a much
higher sea level and, therefore, a serious danger for people living
at sea level; with a prima facie estimate of one third of the present
world population.

Lower salinity of the seas, because of the inflow of fresh water coming from the aforementioned ice fusion. Something that could promote dramatic changes in ocean currents, thus contributing to very
serious climate changes in a certain number of areas. Among them,
Western Europe, because of the alterations in the Gulf Stream.

New methane emissions, coming from the warming of the seas
(where there are enormous frozen stocks at the bottom), and also
of the permafrost in the polar regions in the Northern hemisphere.
Something that could be the origin of huge fires on the seas, and
on the tundras, since methane is a very combustible fuel at only a
few more degrees than at present. The final consequences of it all
could be the aggravation of global warming and climate change.

Desertification beyond any imaginable idea, especially in the Sahel
area in Africa, some parts of South America, and actual deserts in
Asia, like the Arabian, Iranian, and Gobi. And also with very negative impact on the semiarid zones today, which are essential for
food production.

Air pollution over present levels, which are measured by sensors in
most overpopulated areas of the world. With a great impact on human health, and even in many aspects on flora and fauna.

Acidification of seas and oceans, because of the growing GEG accumulation inside them. With serious incidence on all kinds of sea
species; that could become a part of the already very thick catalogue of those which are in danger of extinction.

Greater frequency of fires in any kind of forests, with the consequence of more GEG entering the atmosphere. And also, with very
negative effects on biodiversity, namely in tropical rainforests.

More extensive deterioration of some climatic phenomena: longer
and more intense droughts, more frequent and even stronger hurricanes and typhoons, with dramatic results for public works and
many other infrastructures; and also people’s and real estate assets
safety.

What is not yet very well known: the interacting of the above mentioned global warming and climate change circumstances could create a new situation of negative synergies.
Regarding all the woes we have related, the situation had to be assumed by most responsible governments of the world, in their obligation of looking after the welfare of their peoples in the future, to try to
change the harmful trends we have quoted. With the creation of the
necessary tools to fight against so many bad forecasts as we get almost
every day.
But a complex amount of ignorance, anti-scientism, priority for narrow
national interest against global purposes, etc. have prevented up until
now the good performance of the Framework Convention on Climate
Change. And regarding the Kyoto Protocol, the fact that the USA and
China do not apply the scheme, makes the efforts made in other countries useless, namely the European Union member States.
What are the expectations at this time, September 2014, for so many
foreseen disasters on account of the lack of positive actions?
We can say there is real hope, since the parties of the Climate Conference (COP), who are working decisively, at least as far as we know,
looking forward to the COP-21 meeting in Paris, in December 2015.
When and where a text of the new treaty, to substitute the Kyoto Protocol, could be discussed sufficiently. So that the 193 States of the
Climate Convention –including, of course, ChinUsa, or Chimerica, since
China and the States are negotiating a common agreement before entering the new universal scheme— could sign the new agreement.
What should have the meaning of some kind of peace treaty between
all human beings and Nature. Otherwise (Lovelock dixit), Gaia (the
goddess of the Earth) could punish to the human community with all
kind of disasters.
The real problems in achieving the aforementioned positive result in
Paris 2015, and to get a new international agreement ratified in 2020,
lies in the large number of difficulties to be solved in the use of the
different methods of lowering carbon levels: curbing GEG emissions,
achieving more energy efficiency, waste recycling, and even thinking
about geo-engineering.
But there is something more: the richest member States of the COP
have to be in the position of transferring the necessary funds and technologies to the less developed countries; so that they can receive
enough resources to reach the targets that will be assigned to them in
the future treaty.
My last words: I hope this Congress will be motivated by the problems
and possible solutions regarding global warming and climate change.
It is something that deserves great attention. Because the future of
mankind depends on what we are going to do in the next five years.
L’heure de vérité is here, among us, and everybody has to reflect on
what has to be done to leave our children a better world in the future.
And engineers are not, of course, an exception. On the contrary, they
must assume their very important role in this capital matter.
Thanks for your attention, and I shall try to answer any questions that
you want to put to the speaker.
Ramón TAMAMES