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Energy-WaterClimate Change Scenario Gary Graham Lands Program Director (former stuntman) CC-E-W Scenario: Where We Landed • Got most everything we set out to accomplish – WECC talking about risks from climate change • But not perfect – WECC inertia – Not enough about water reliability • Highlights of current draft – What is in – What is omitted Scenario Focus Question What are the most significant potential risks to reliability in the Western Interconnection that could result from changes to the climate and how can those risks be reduced and managed? EPA Projections From IPCC Models Scenario Driver: 30 F in 2034 Highest Emissions = +30F in 2034 4 Impacts -> Risks Rising Temperatures and Heat Waves • Higher net energy demands • Reduce efficiency of cooling technologies • Decrease efficiency of electrical transmission – Line sag, mechanical integrity • Complicate compliance with thermal effluent regulations 5 Impacts > Risks: Water Availability • Compromise ability to meet competing demands, satisfy regulations • Mean less water available for cooling, or hydro generation • Limit water-intensive extraction processes 6 Impacts -> Risks Increasing Frequency & Intensity of Drought • Large systemic effects (land, water, energy) • Reduce production of biofuels • Affect transportation of fuels 7 Impacts > Risks Increasing Frequency & Intensity of Flooding • Structural damage of facilities • Potential increases in hydropower generation • Increased siltation decreasing reservoir capacity 8 Impacts -> Risks Landslides and Increasing Wild Fires • Wildfire exposes slopes to erosion and landslides • Sediment loads increase wear and tear on turbines, reduce reservoir capacity • Wildfires/landslides disrupt generation, transmission; destroy infrastructure • Ecosystem shifts due to wildfire, and changing temperature and precipitation affect grid siting and reliability 9 Risk Management & Preparation • Developing drought-management plans for reduced cooling flows • Developing hydropower management plans, policies addressing extremes • Hardening, building redundancy into facilities • Improving reliability of grid systems through back-up power supply, intelligent controls, and distributed generation • Insulating equipment for temperature extremes • Relocating vulnerable facilities 10 Risk Management & Preparation • Adding peak generation, power storage capacity, and distributed generation • Protecting watersheds • Maintaining diverse portfolios • Sustaining system flexibility • Deploying an energy system that is less vulnerable to climate impacts – Microgrids that protect important services/areas – Smart grid – Distributed generation 11 Carbon Reduction: The missing elephant in the room Balancing act for clean energy stakeholders • Keep industry and WECC thinking and talking about climate change Clean Energy Vision Electric Reliability ($200B) • Smart investment strategy to spend billions on managing climate change related risks and not address the cause of the risks? Leverage the Scenario to Move the CEV Needle • Which venues, given the current political picture, offer the greatest opportunity for progress • How can we best leverage CA leadership • Opportunities with Kitzhaber as Chair of WGA • Others Think Globally, Lead Regionally Progress to date • Discussed April & August SPSG Meetings • Workshop October 14 – Science, impacts, risks, preparations • December 15 SPSG meeting – Agreed on scenario and components • January 6 draft • SPSG webinar Jan 13 • SPSG meeting Feb 11-12 for “final” 16 http://wwa.colorado.edu Potential or likely climate impacts on electricity in the West T T P T P T T T T P P T T SW Assessment; Figure 12.5 Projected