Download Graham-WCEA-Climate-Change-Energy

Energy-WaterClimate Change
Scenario
Gary Graham
Lands Program
Director
(former stuntman)
CC-E-W Scenario:
Where We Landed
• Got most everything we
set out to accomplish
– WECC talking about risks
from climate change
• But not perfect
– WECC inertia
– Not enough about water
reliability
• Highlights of current draft
– What is in
– What is omitted
Scenario Focus Question
What are the most significant potential risks to reliability
in the Western Interconnection that could result from
changes to the climate and how can those risks be
reduced and managed?
EPA Projections From IPCC Models
Scenario Driver: 30 F in 2034
Highest Emissions
= +30F in 2034
4
Impacts -> Risks
Rising Temperatures and Heat Waves
• Higher net energy
demands
• Reduce efficiency of
cooling technologies
• Decrease efficiency of
electrical transmission
– Line sag, mechanical
integrity
• Complicate compliance
with thermal effluent
regulations
5
Impacts > Risks: Water Availability
• Compromise ability to
meet competing
demands, satisfy
regulations
• Mean less water
available for cooling,
or hydro generation
• Limit water-intensive
extraction processes
6
Impacts -> Risks
Increasing Frequency & Intensity of Drought
• Large systemic effects
(land, water, energy)
• Reduce production of
biofuels
• Affect transportation
of fuels
7
Impacts > Risks
Increasing Frequency & Intensity of Flooding
• Structural damage of
facilities
• Potential increases in
hydropower generation
• Increased siltation
decreasing reservoir
capacity
8
Impacts -> Risks
Landslides and Increasing Wild Fires
• Wildfire exposes slopes to
erosion and landslides
• Sediment loads increase
wear and tear on turbines,
reduce reservoir capacity
• Wildfires/landslides disrupt
generation, transmission;
destroy infrastructure
• Ecosystem shifts due to
wildfire, and changing
temperature and
precipitation affect grid
siting and reliability
9
Risk Management & Preparation
• Developing drought-management plans for reduced
cooling flows
• Developing hydropower management plans, policies
addressing extremes
• Hardening, building redundancy into facilities
• Improving reliability of grid systems through back-up
power supply, intelligent controls, and distributed
generation
• Insulating equipment for temperature extremes
• Relocating vulnerable facilities
10
Risk Management & Preparation
• Adding peak generation, power storage capacity, and
distributed generation
• Protecting watersheds
• Maintaining diverse portfolios
• Sustaining system flexibility
• Deploying an energy system that is less vulnerable to
climate impacts
– Microgrids that protect important services/areas
– Smart grid
– Distributed generation
11
Carbon Reduction:
The missing elephant in
the room
Balancing act for clean energy
stakeholders
• Keep industry and WECC thinking and
talking about climate change
Clean Energy Vision
Electric Reliability ($200B)
• Smart investment strategy to spend billions on
managing climate change related risks and not
address the cause of the risks?
Leverage the Scenario to Move the CEV Needle
• Which venues, given the current political picture, offer the
greatest opportunity for progress
• How can we best leverage CA leadership
• Opportunities with Kitzhaber as Chair of WGA
• Others
Think Globally, Lead Regionally
Progress to date
• Discussed April & August SPSG Meetings
• Workshop October 14
– Science, impacts, risks, preparations
• December 15 SPSG meeting
– Agreed on scenario and components
• January 6 draft
• SPSG webinar Jan 13
• SPSG meeting Feb
11-12 for “final”
16
http://wwa.colorado.edu
Potential or likely climate impacts on electricity in the West
T
T
P
T
P T
T
T
T P
P T
T
SW Assessment; Figure 12.5
Projected